Roubini Now Says The Worst Of Economic Crisis Is Over

"When he closed, he said this..."worst is over, all up from here"."

if i bought in licc a few months ago, i'd probably be so nervous that i'd be on this board shamelessly talking my book as well!

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/11/27/sp_case_shiller_september_2007.png

urbandigs,
Again, i said it many times. Stop putting my purchase with my views of the economy. I didn't make the purchase because of where i think this economy is going. It was a family decision and it made sense financially. Of all people, you should know that.

yes, but you emphatically have been uber-bullish since. strange, no?

are we getting to ya

"Can you name any instances over the past 100 years where we have big inflationary numbers with housing in a deflationary mode?"

Okay...i'll even extend the hand to other nations over the past century.

Anyone????

Anyone seen property prices in Asia lately?

"GE, i understand..but Harley Davidson is a producer of luxury goods."

Yes they are. I don't see how it is irrelevant though. If the booming sales of luxury goods can be an indicator of good economic times, why can't the slowing sales of luxury goods indicate bad economic times?

"yes, but you emphatically have been uber-bullish since. strange, no?"

Nope...because i know full well most recession last 12-24 months.

"are we getting to ya"

Nope...having a good time debating.

josefsz,

Because luxury goods are usually the last thing to turn around after a recession. By the time the luxury good producers start reporting 'good' numbers, we're already past the recession and the meat of the trade is gone.

"Nope...because i know full well most recession last 12-24 months"

Again, NO! Come on ericho, this is getting embarrassing now. Since 1950, NBER classified 9 recessions. Guess how many lasted more than 12 months, guess? Ill give you a few minutes before answering

to be exact..the average is 491 days.

ericho, just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living?

wrong! Since 1950, the average length of the recession is 10.4 Months. ONLY 2 recessions, out of the past 9 recessions in the past 60 years, were more than 12 months in duration.

http://dshort.com/docs/recession-table-detailed.html

This is the 10th. And so far it is about 18 months in duration, longer than the 2 worst recessions in post WW2 history.

special - i was going to ask the same question

urbandigs,
Why do you only use data since the 1950s?
If you bears are constantly referring to the great depression, then why aren't you going back to the past 100 years? You're just cherry picking..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/114481-robert-shiller-this-is-no-average-recession

"Since 1854, the average length of a U.S. recession has been 17 months from peak to trough, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research."

excuse me. I asked you a question on how long the average duration of recessions since post WW2 period, since 1950, that werr classified by NBER. You answered an average of 491 days.

http://www.investmenttools.com/median_and_average_sales_prices_of_houses_sold_in_the_us.htm

The topping process took 1-2 years, but as a technician would say..the drop did not start until 2007.

so your saying a recession in 1860, 1870, 1880, is more relevant to our world today, than the recessions since 1950? I think times have changed a bit in the past 140 years no? Looking back 60 years for comparison of lets call more modern day recessions that this economy has gone through, for sake of figuring out the severity of this recession, is fine. Besides, my question was very clear and your answer of 491 days was very clear too.

Sorry, but i miss-read your question...i had only a few minutes.
You didn't answer my question. Why did you only use post WW2 data?

And what about naming an instance where we have good inflationary numbers with housing deflating?
Please..you said i don't know a thing...then go ahead and answer this question.

signing off...ciao!

So you constantly compare this recession with the great depression in all your other post, but yet when we talk about recessions you exclude it from this argument? Odd? Cherry picking?

urbandigs!!!

Answer my question!!! You called me out and said i was wrong..then ANSWER IT! Educate me!

"And what about naming an instance where we have good inflationary numbers with housing deflating? "

Yes..skip the question that you said i was wrong on...

Typical...

ANSWER 1 - good inflation with BAD housing performance. No prob

http://dshort.com/inflation/inflation-sp500-chart.html#top

Scroll down, and check inflation for 2005 - 2008! How did housing perform? IInflation is only being shown to go negative in 2009 so far.

ANSWER 2 - "So you constantly compare this recession with the great depression in all your other post, but yet when we talk about recessions you exclude it from this argument?"

I compare it to TGD in the sense that we are in a DEBT-DEFLATIONARY cycle that has seen a sharp collapse of our banking system, shadow banking system, and securitization market where loans were repackaged and sold as bonds - writedowns near 1 trln yet? When was the last instance we saw such a debt contraction and deflationary cycle that hit our banking system? When? The answer is the great depression. yet I never called this to be another great depression, you just assumed that.

now can I go to work?

ericho75, you are no match for urbandigs. I must say it was the "honest" posts in his site, which rightfully earned him a good reputation, has led me to streeteasy.com.
You don't want the real estate prices to drop because you bought it already 3 month ago. we get it. therefore you lack the credibility due to conflict of interest. Why are you stil coming in here if you have already bought an apt? Forget about the market now that you have made your decision already..

Just call it a day and let urbandigs go to work

Noah, are you serious?
You are telling me that we had inflation in 2008 with one of the greatest deflationary collapse of our time? You believe in those numbers?

ericho -- what jjun said. Accept the fact that a big chunk of your equity is already gone and just move on. A future post by you:

"Should I Stop Paying My Mortgage and Just Walk Away?" (by ericho75)

Why the hell should i walk? I honor my debt. I made a decision to buy, it's almost the same as rent. Just because someone says my place is cheaper than when i purchased..i should walk? Take my family and go rent a tiny apartment for 25% less and degrade my quality of life even though i have cash and a well paying job??? This is EXACTLY what is WRONG with America!

You guys make me sick!

Does it almost mean if you make a few bucks you should also sell your place?

I also don't get the argument about walking if you can afford it. It's mind-blogging that people would let others take the blunt of their poor decision to buy. Sad sad world we live in.

"Should I Stop Paying My Mortgage and Just Walk Away?" (by ericho75)

west34, i actually laughed out loud at that one!

"A future post by you:

"Should I Stop Paying My Mortgage and Just Walk Away?" (by ericho75)"

Disagree. The post won't look like that. It will look like this:

"Should I Stop Paying My Mortgage and Just Walk Away?" (by random_new_screen_name)

lol

> ANSWER 1 - good inflation with BAD housing performance. No prob

Ha, ericho completely schooled again!

ha!
When was i schooled before? If you want me to school you, give me a howl. I can teach you a thing or 2 about economics.

And in regards to those inflation numbers. You got to be a complete moron to believe those numbers that Noah posted. We had the greatest 'deflationary' collapse in over 5 decades and you expect me to believe that in 2008 we had the highest inflation over the past 15 years!!!! You really need to get your head out of that rental ass of yours.

signing off...

jerkricho

"When was i schooled before? If you want me to school you, give me a howl. I can teach you a thing or 2 about economics. "

Sorry, I went a little past community college economics. I can teach you, if you'd like.

One last note...

As of now 75% of S&P companies have BEAT the street.
Recession over??? No doubt..

"Sorry, I went a little past community college economics. I can teach you, if you'd like."

Hmmm..no wonder you are renting.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM0zj0YsJ8fk

"July 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades. "

Of cause you didn't see it...but i did.
Must be your education.

Hey..where's your leader w64thstreet?
His 'solid' SAT score probably got him to a better school. Maybe he can educate us all on why NYC housing prices will drop another 50% or why this depression got a long way to go.

> "Sorry, I went a little past community college economics. I can teach you, if you'd like."
> Hmmm..no wonder you are renting.

Absolutely. And why you lost a ton "investing" in the RE bubble.

sorry..but i haven't lost anything.

I certainly hope the recession is over, but I'm afraid it's probably not. And in any case, New York City real estate is just in the infancy of its own recession. Hard times for homeowners who need to sell in the next couple of years.

> sorry..but i haven't lost anything.

You didn't own through the 25% drop? Really?

So do you rent, or do you live with mommy?

No no no...you got it all wrong NYC10022.
I'm actually from Mars and never paid rent. I landed on earth just 3 months ago and saw tons of bargains everywhere.

Problem is, a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all.

Of course, now we understanding where you lack of understanding of economics comes from. No money on Mars.