Underwater on Mortgages - 18% in NY

no way! not in Manhattan... the WSJ are a bunch of losers, bitter renters...

uh, admin you might want to actually read the link before you comment. 18% is the number for NY State - it doesn't say anything about Manhattan or NYC specifically. It is not particularly clear if those numbers even include co-ops/condos at all. If you have know what that number is for NYC, I would love to see it.

printer...you have to think that it is somewhere between 5-10% on condos. A lot was purcased in 07 and a lot was refinanced in 07 and 08.

Co-ops less than 1%.

uh, printer... you are right! have no idea about Manhattan nor NYC :-( and given that prices took much longer to go down here and the less concentration of subprime lending (although ARM went rampant) my bet is that's way much less than the avg for the country for now.

also think that people might hold on to their negative equity longer in manhattan than in other places given high paying jobs (unless they become jobless or need to move). loans in NY are not entirely non-recourse and banks are selling as we speak the "deficiency judgments" to collection agencies (this is being done whether is recourse or not i read... which is mind blowing).

My vote for most underwater unit- 20H at 1965 broadway. Bought in 10/07 for $2.875mm,11H closed at $1.675mm 7/09. $1.2mm loss in 21 months, what a Great investment! Don't forget the $20k/month montlies for the last 21 months. Lmao. Smithers?

admin,
the comparative lack of negative equity homes here in NYC is a huge reason why you don't see the foreclosures that you do in the rest of the country - and why you won't. Large down payments are important for 2 reasons - the obvious being the cushion that banks have against their loan value, but as importantly, it shows an ability and willingness to save (or in some cases, that you have rich parents), all of which means that you would be much less willing to 'mail in the keys' that you are seeing the hardest hit areas.
That said, we'll probably have more foreclosures that result from developers, but we'll have to wait to see how that plays itself out.

> t doesn't say anything about Manhattan or NYC specifically.

Yes, because a 20-30% decline didn't get ANYBODY in Manhattan. And no one takes mortgages, either.

suuuuure.

nyc - i know you can't do math, so I'll help you out. Most co-ops require 25% or more down. So if prices are down 20-30% from the peak, then yes, you'll have some slightly underwater mtges. But those are only for properties bought at the peak, which is essentially a 1yr period. everything else is at or above.

and the best part of all this is that even when some of the developments go bankrupt, you still won't be able to afford it.

"nyc - i know you can't do math, so I'll help you out. Most co-ops require 25% or more down. So if prices are down 20-30% from the peak, then yes, you'll have some slightly underwater mtges. But those are only for properties bought at the peak, which is essentially a 1yr period. everything else is at or above."

guess that's why everyone in the real estate industry (except brokers) is telling me to wait to buy because the prices are set to go down further and at which point you'll see true chaos.

"and the best part of all this is that even when some of the developments go bankrupt, you still won't be able to afford it."

printer, let us know when you are buying. I don't care if you own right now, have lost the chance to sell etc. let us know when YOU are buying in this environment, since you stress how it is the perfect time to buy.. or.. is it that you can't afford to buy right now? all your money is tide up in a bad investment, ie real estate? Stop telling people to buy when you can't/won't do the same right now. Most people who can afford to live in NYC and looking at the real estate market closely are not poor that they have to hear you rant about being bitter renters. They just don't want to be stupid investors - it's only smart to be cautious with their money in current environment.

Well said, JJun!

"printer, let us know when you are buying. I don't care if you own right now, have lost the chance to sell etc. let us know when YOU are buying in this environment, since you stress how it is the perfect time to buy.. or.. is it that you can't afford to buy right now? all your money is tide up in a bad investment, ie real estate? Stop telling people to buy when you can't/won't do the same right now. Most people who can afford to live in NYC and looking at the real estate market closely are not poor that they have to hear you rant about being bitter renters. They just don't want to be stupid investors - it's only smart to be cautious with their money in current environment. "

lol.

I think he's just pissed that he's been completely wrong for the past 2 years.

Everyone who thinks only 1% of Coops can be under water because of cash requirements.... I have 3 words for you "cash out refi". I think you'd be surprised how many Coops in NY are under water as a result of this.

jjun - you mean all those brilliant 'people in real estate' who invested in and/or developed all the commercial and residential projects over the past few years? Yes, that's like touting Henry Blodget as a sage on when to invest in equties - or anything else for that matter.

I have never said that now is the 'perfect time to buy' or any such thing. Because there is no such thing - it is a very individual decision based on several factors. One person's perfect time to buy might be another's perfect time to sell.

And I've never used the term 'bitter renters' - however it is quite interesting that is the label you chose for yourself

30yrs: Any tips for distinguishing cash-out from rate-term refis on coops? The UCC docs seem pretty useless, other than maybe the red flag of a 1 without a 3 (except at purchase time), and that wouldn't even be a refi, strictly speaking.

printer, well I apologize if you never used these terms. I don't know all the characters in SE to know exactly who said what but I certain read alot of undeserving insults with recurring phrases.

Friends who told me to wait are REIT analysts who has nothing to do with investment/development of commercial residential projects over the past few years. Rather they are responsible for correctly underweighting the industry these past few years.

bitter renter, I'm certainly not, very happy I didn't buy till now, but would love to buy when the price is right!

printer is the poster who pretends to be the big deal wall street investor.

i'm the poster who's very negative (but honest).

now, you're up to speed.

R you the junie about the doorman beatdown? Well welcome aboard our little ship