What is the opinion on what this agent has to say. This was sent to me about two months ago when I asked what she though of price declines in Bayside queens. "You mention that you see the market adjusting another 20 to 30 percent here. While I really do respect your opinion, I really do not see that happening, and here is why..even in the two worst months of 2008 and today, we have not seen more... [more]
What is the opinion on what this agent has to say. This was sent to me about two months ago when I asked what she though of price declines in Bayside queens.
"You mention that you see the market adjusting another 20 to 30 percent here. While I really do respect your opinion, I really do not see that happening, and here is why..even in the two worst months of 2008 and today, we have not seen more than a 7 to 10 percent drop from last year. If you look at Flushing North, according to a very reliable real estate statistics analyzer, www.AccuriZ.com , the downturn overall of one family dwellings has been 6%, in Bayside it's 7%. And this was after the worst downturn in over 22 years. Now, with the new Stimulus Package, buying and holding real estate should be even more attractive, with the $8000 tax credit being offered to anyone buying between Jan. 1 2009 and Dec. 31, 2009. And remember the full tax credit exists for those buyers who hold their property for over 5 years, so even the government wants to induce you to buy and HOLD. No one has ever lost money buying real estate and holding it for more than 10 years, unless they have borrowed more money against their house than they originally mortgaged. So even IF the market continues to drop, and I think any drop would be incremental in comparison to the 7 to 10 pct, we have seen in the past 6 months, buying keeps your money invested, and longterm, it's hard to lose when you are not renting a/k/a paying someone else's mortgage. It's clich�d, but true, 'Don't wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait! One more thing, if you have the down payment, ask yourself,"Where else (legally) can my investment make 10 to 30 percent over the course of the next 5years?" And that is considering overall, only a 2 to 6% increase annually for only 5 years. Even people who bought homes here in 2003, would see much better profits than that, from what they bought for in 2003 to what the values are now. Prices are only lower than they were in 2008, 2007 max. They are still higher than they were at any time in 2006/06. What's the bank giving in a non-risky investment now, 3% max? And most people don't even bothering saving enough money to buy unless they really do buy, so isn't buying a home better than just spending the money on "stuff"? You betcha!"
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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
The EMPORIA......................He's....He's....naked!
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Response by reallystate
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 59
Member since: Apr 2009
krglas - I'd like to know in what context you received this email. Are you trying to justify offering 30% below asking on a house in Flushing North/Bayside, and was this response part of your e-conversation with the agent?
Let me tell you right now, I grew up in that area (live in Manhattan currently). It's always been expensive and always been popular because it's a suburban lifestyle with a 25 min LIRR commute to Midtown.
You can argue the agent's numbers and logic all you want, but face the facts - no house in that area is going to trade at a significant discount. It's an in-demand area, has been before and will remain so due to the unique quality of life it offers.
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Response by krglas
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Jan 2009
I simply asked the agent if it was risky to buy a house in the area when there was a chance housing prices could decline a further 20 to 30%. Reallystate how can you be be 100% sure "no house in that area is going to trade at a significant discount." With all this unemployment and everything the bears have to say about real estate in general how can you be sure. Also, here is an example of what is happening now in the area.
53-48 210th St, Queens NY 11364:
07/14/2009 Price change $675,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
03/26/2009 Price change $728,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
09/20/2008 Price change $775,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
If you accept that the last couple of years saw the overvaluation of real estate, isn't it acceptable to believe prices will come back to reality.
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Response by krglas
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Jan 2009
Also, I'm more interested in Bayside. But if the accepted consensus is high end real estate is in trouble doesn't that spell trouble for flushing north?
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
of course.
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Response by ab_11218
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2017
Member since: May 2009
krglas, your example is flawed. this is not the Elliman/Corcoran area. the only way they get listing is by lying to the seller telling them that they can get 20% more than anyone else. now these poor slobs, sellers, are chasing the market down.
neither Elliman nor Corcoran brokers know what CMA stands for (Comparative Market Analysis). they just come in and give a price from the top of their heads and the suckers listen and sign on the dotted line.
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Response by scoots
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009
"Where else (legally) can my investment make 10 to 30 percent over the course of the next 5years?" And that is considering overall, only a 2 to 6% increase annually for only 5 years.
Mind = blown. If she worked on Wall Street, she'd lose her license.
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Response by shaimegiddo
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 40
Member since: Jun 2009
krglas,
I agree with ab_11218 - don't let one seller who's clueless fool you.
Not all properties in Bayside/flushing north are high end. A single family selling in the 600's can attract a buyer with enough down payment to borrow 417,000 only therefore making it easier to get financing.
There are several unique water front properties in the 2mm range - those are slow to sell right now.
You have to carefully search properties similar to the ones you are interested in, to know what are the trends in the price range that you are looking to buy in.
The EMPORIA......................He's....He's....naked!
krglas - I'd like to know in what context you received this email. Are you trying to justify offering 30% below asking on a house in Flushing North/Bayside, and was this response part of your e-conversation with the agent?
Let me tell you right now, I grew up in that area (live in Manhattan currently). It's always been expensive and always been popular because it's a suburban lifestyle with a 25 min LIRR commute to Midtown.
You can argue the agent's numbers and logic all you want, but face the facts - no house in that area is going to trade at a significant discount. It's an in-demand area, has been before and will remain so due to the unique quality of life it offers.
I simply asked the agent if it was risky to buy a house in the area when there was a chance housing prices could decline a further 20 to 30%. Reallystate how can you be be 100% sure "no house in that area is going to trade at a significant discount." With all this unemployment and everything the bears have to say about real estate in general how can you be sure. Also, here is an example of what is happening now in the area.
53-48 210th St, Queens NY 11364:
07/14/2009 Price change $675,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
03/26/2009 Price change $728,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
09/20/2008 Price change $775,000 Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
If you accept that the last couple of years saw the overvaluation of real estate, isn't it acceptable to believe prices will come back to reality.
Also, I'm more interested in Bayside. But if the accepted consensus is high end real estate is in trouble doesn't that spell trouble for flushing north?
of course.
krglas, your example is flawed. this is not the Elliman/Corcoran area. the only way they get listing is by lying to the seller telling them that they can get 20% more than anyone else. now these poor slobs, sellers, are chasing the market down.
neither Elliman nor Corcoran brokers know what CMA stands for (Comparative Market Analysis). they just come in and give a price from the top of their heads and the suckers listen and sign on the dotted line.
"Where else (legally) can my investment make 10 to 30 percent over the course of the next 5years?" And that is considering overall, only a 2 to 6% increase annually for only 5 years.
Mind = blown. If she worked on Wall Street, she'd lose her license.
krglas,
I agree with ab_11218 - don't let one seller who's clueless fool you.
Not all properties in Bayside/flushing north are high end. A single family selling in the 600's can attract a buyer with enough down payment to borrow 417,000 only therefore making it easier to get financing.
There are several unique water front properties in the 2mm range - those are slow to sell right now.
You have to carefully search properties similar to the ones you are interested in, to know what are the trends in the price range that you are looking to buy in.