Smart Peoples Thread

you're a bufoon.

I concur, CC.

Why Columbia? I actually could say amen to most of these wishes. This is what they are, right Gatsby? Your enthusiasm writing "(note: inventory already way down from a couple of months back!!)" shows that you are trying to defend your RE investment or your RE job. It is this way, man, you want to buy, you see clearly why the market should go down. You already bought, you write here you rationalizations of why is not going down.

it's

because...

when someone is sick...it's nice to say i hope you get better

but....

its much more effective to find out what the causes are of the illness and deal with those in the real world. not particularly popular (especially if you're a politican) but you can't fix it if you are busy pretending it isn't broken.

and...man oh man...its broken.

that's why.

So that means a silly little wish bull-list should not be posted because is not trying to find the causes of the illness? Lovya man, but don't be so heavy...

he/she is free to post as are we all.

What about the Second Avenue subway?

And the Second Avenue subway will be finished by 2011.

Gatsby? No irony there.

Yes, the Second Avenue Subway will be finished, but probably not until closer to 2018.

I actually do not own or rent in NYC. Just come to visit. I was going to move here but did not want to have a lot of the StreetEasy folks as neighbors. Not in the NYC real estate business in any way shape or form. I specialize in econometric models and certain model political projections and how the two relate. I've followed the markets of NY and other areas. Also somewhat psychic, but I should not admit, because that will get the Full Mooners on StreetEasy really going.

so your comments aren't a " silly little wish bull-list " but result from your serious econometric and political modeling?

Who is 'Rob Portmann'? If you mean 'Rob Portman,' he is not a Senator.

but he will be.

Portman will be elected in 2010. He was a congressman, OMB dir and Special Trade Amb. Nice guy, too.

this is fun.

when will geithner be able to sell his house and for how much?

Geithner won't sell his house. He'll be coming back to NYC in 2013

even though obama is re-elected? how come? who will replace him?

Can I get the winning lottery numbers, please, Gatsby? Thanks, you're a peach.

Neal S. Wolin will become Secretary of the Treasury. Geithner will likely return to the private sector but the crystal ball is a little murky... could be academia.

Can not do lottery numbers.

I am from Georgia, though, so thanks for the compliment re the peach!

"I was going to move here but did not want to have a lot of the StreetEasy folks as neighbors."

None of us actually live in NYC, we do this in between epsiodes of Star Trek and games of Tales of Monkey Island Chapter 1: Launch of the Screaming Narwhal.

"I am from Georgia"

Bulldog or Yellow Jacket?

Neither -- Emory.

Live Long and Prosper, Juiceman!

I myself am hoping to be in Dick Cavett, the Musical.

Ah, good school Gatsby, was on my running route. Strong ties to the area and spent many a night at Moe's and Joe's.

Second Ave Subway Phase One completion date is 2017.
96 to 63..............that will really take the heat off the #6...how? I have no idea.

Been to Moe's and Joe's on N. Highland.. Not a regular, though.

Yes: Dow above 11,000 by the end of 2009!!

No: Manhattan housing prices start ticking slowly upward by the end of 2009 as inventory dips to 6000!!!

Yes but keep in mind the starting point: 3% Economic Growth Nationally for Second Half of 2009!

Yes to the first part of the sentence, no to the second: A reasonably good bonus season keep Manhattan real estate stable with some modest price increases throughout 2010.

No: Manhattan real estate prices back to early 2007 levels by mid-2010 and will gradually accelerate. Full recovery to late 2007 levels by 2012, though national inflation may be partially responsible. (note: inventory already way down from a couple of months back!!)

Yes to the first part of the sentence. No to the middle of the sentence. Yes to the end: Wall Street will come back in a big way with both bigger, more powerful players and stronger, newer players. The Wall Street/FiDi area itself will have a major resurgence, with banks, IT companies, and homeowners rounding out the area, and the WTC finally taking shape by 2014.

I take a pass on this, but think not: A modest comprehensive health care plan will be enacted by Congress in 2009.

Yes to stability, no to actual prosperity in 2011: 2010 will generally be a year of renewed growth and stability nationally and prosperity will return by 2011.

Yes to Senator. Patterson will not run. Bloomberg will next seek to become King: Sen. Gillibrand will win in 2010. Gov. Patterson will not. Bloomberg will be handily re-elected in 2009.

Yes, Yes, Interesting: Democrats will lose seats in Congress in 2010 but President Obama will handily be re-elected in 2012. VP Joe Biden will step down and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will become Vice President.

Ugh, don't know. Yes, yes: Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee in 2012. Sen. Rob Portmann of Ohio will be his running mate. They will run a strong campaign but lose. Little will be heard from Sarah Palin.

Yes: The last American troops will leave Iraq... well most will be gone by some time in 2012... thousands will remain for a long time. Thanks again, President Bush.

No idea: There will be a Velvet Revolution in Iran in the next year or two.

Oh please: President Clinton's breakthrough visit to North Korea will mark a turning point in US-Korean relations, for the better.

Oh please: This is a millenia old problem. Hate is taught in schools, supported by Saudis and the "peaceful" Egyptians, let alone support from Iran and Syria. Hate will take generations. The memories of those killed will take generations: There will be a peace agreement in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestineans in the next 4-5 years.

I hope so, but have no idea: Terrorism will decrease as an international concern the next five years but there will be periodic eruptions.

Blah blah blah: Good times ahead!!! Many challenges, but happy days are here again!

the first five aren't even remotely possible. but it's always nice to hope for the best.

ah i guess the dow to 11000 could happen but none of those nyc real estate predictions are happening.

One more: Elena Kagen will be the President's next appointee to the Supreme Court.

this is hiiiiilarious. who needs the ouija board?

simply referring to the data hasn't been working, so why not find a better source to convince the masses that the bottom is in for NYC real estate prices?

this could be a nora roberts novel.

You people probably got a good a laugh from Nostradamus as well!!

BTW Aboutready, I was thinking more Nora Ephron.

I agree, AR, this is quite funny! Also, I kinda love Nora Roberts. Nora Epheron is also fun but not nearly as entertaining.

"I was going to move here but did not want to have a lot of the StreetEasy folks as neighbors."

No worries, Gatsby, it's a big place. The chances that you'd wind up with one of the handful of us who regularly post as neighbors is negligible. So by all means hop on board.

Oops.. I noticed a typo in my OP... I meant early 2007 pricing would return by mid-2011, not mid-2010. Sorry about that!!

To be serious for a moment (just a moment), I do not think my projection is particularly bullish. I think that Manhattan RE prices will continue to drop another 5-7% but will level out toward the end of the year and we'll see sluggish increases through the first half of 2010. The pace will start to pick up a bit midyear next year and get back to near peak prices by the middle to end of 2012 (maybe not adjusted for inflation).

Because interest rates will also be somewhat high by 2012, prices will not appreciate that much for a few years until 2017/2018.

Keep in mind that there are about 1.6 million people in Manhattan, and current inventory is about 9500. It's gone down about 2500 just in the last couple of months. So I don't think I'm all that bullish in asserting that we'll see some mild additional drop, then flatness, then sluggish appreciation,then accelerated appreciation, then another period of flatness.

Anyway, I guess I am sort of saying it really won't matter much in the long run if you buy right now because things are going to be flattish the next couple of years in general, with some price increases depending on the desirability of the property starting in the next 6-8 months.

how many of those 1.6 million can afford $1 million for an apartment, do you figure? 90%?

Look, Gatsby, no one here WANTS to believe otherwise.

But there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of any recovery such as you describe.

I think real estate prices are going to decline according to market segment. We'll see if it gets to my market or not, but you really ought to be a bit more careful about blanket statements about the market.

For example, not all of those 1.6 million people are in the buyer market. How many are children? How many have rent stabilized or controlled apartments? How many are under-mid-thirties and still trying to save up any sort of down payment? The buying pool is much smaller than the case you present. Which you might know if you hung around on this board more before posting.

But thanks for the giggle! And welcome to the 'hood.

Oh Evnyc, I would never assert that all 1.6 million people are potential buyers. But look at the inventory/population ratio here compared to other cities plus the amout of space where expansion is possible. It is telling.

I guess in so many words I am saying what the great Ronald Reagan said, "Today is better than yesterday, and tomorrow will be better than today."

I do not want to become one of you. I am only here for a few days and then I will move on to Detroit and spread cheer there. They need it more than NYC.

The country, the people, and Manhattan RE can pull out of the hole that W built. Yes we can. Yes we will!

Godspeed to all of you. I am off to the Motor City!

Well, no worries, we won't miss you either. ;)

Godspeed. Motor City needs all the help it can get!

I didn't say I wouldn't miss you. I just said I didn't want to become one of you. Kind of the way I feel about my drag queen friends and cabdrivers named Mohammed.

Bye for now. At the airport now.

There's plenty of drag queens in De-troit. Glad you'll miss us. I don't miss the midwest. Ambivalence goes both ways, I suppose.

Safe flight.

"96 to 63..............that will really take the heat off the #6...how? I have no idea."
Falco, you only wrote this to annoy me, because you know perfectly well how it'll take the heat off the 6.

columbiacounty wants America to fail so Obama fails and his political team gets back in office. He is more concerned about party than country.

He never criticized the complete and utter failure of republicans for the past 8 years now that a D is in office he suddenly deems it patriotic to criticize policies that are actually working....

hey CC are you also a birther? or one of those morons screaming down the healthcare town halls? I bet you have a Palin 2012 bumper sticker on your Hummer!

which particular policy is working that i criticized?

If you compare the logic and effectiveness of obamas policies to those of bush, then all are working better than anything has worked ever before

that's a pretty low bar.

bush is an idiot.

but i'm stlll wondering about what it was that i criticized.

columbiacounty are you seriously a Birther? You need to be driven out of town dude. Go back to South Carolina

get a life---because some low life decides he knows who i am--you believe him?

Interesting predictions here, I'm more bearish, except on the stock market. Columbiacounty, you should come clean on who you are, maybe anti-Obama personal stuff like that makes sense upstate New York, but not here.

last time---wtf are you talking about?

wtf, omg, lmao, gtg, ttyl, lol

cc has been posting on here for more than 8 years? damn, that's impressive. considering it's impossible. but maybe like the OP you have psychic powers, and can intuit what cc has been thinking and writing about W for eons. that explains how you pick your tenants who pay 50% of their take home in rent, your psychic powers enable to see whether they're willing to subsist on rice and beans to ensure that they can mail you your sole reason for existence. hope you enjoy the boats, etc., knowing that your tenement dwellers weren't market timers, were just poor overextended joes who couldn't get ahead because they paid too much rent to a sleazelord.

petro, i've been a democrat as long as i've been voting, and in spirit even before, but if there is one individual who makes me feel squeamish about that it's you. you're reprehensible, on oh so many levels.

Gatsby 2009,

Perhaps you're already gone but I just wanted to say thank you. This put a smile on my face.

If petrfitz is a slumlord, that doesn't surprise me that he's a Democrat too. You have to grease the people who can help you in the communities you're in. But being a birther like olumbiacounty is truly repugnant and racist, so frankly better to be a greed landlord than a racist violent KKK scumbag. columbiacounty, you've been exposed.

wow...i'm feeling that there are a few (hah, hah) multiple personalities going on here. like one.

this is the first time i can recall anyone taking anything petro said seriously. in a couple of years of reading petro's posts. alpie gets more respect than petro. but to those of you who choose to follow the village asshole, have a great journey.

although you're not really following, you're creating your own path of shame. petro writes this:

hey CC are you also a birther? or one of those morons screaming down the healthcare town halls? I bet you have a Palin 2012 bumper sticker on your Hummer!

and from that you travel down the path of conjecture and personal slander. nice, nice.