Crains and J. Miller(condo owners looking to sell are scewed!)

So Williamsburg and FiDi no one should touch for at least 2 years. We will be seeing plenty of bloodshed there.

Huh? What about all of those Green SHoots? The recession is over?! No?

what does this have to do with green shoots? not a macro issue - this is the case (and there are many throughout the country/world) of massive speculative building. even had the world not imploded what was going on in williamsburg was mania.

Exactly, printer. I am pointing out why the other facts (constantly cited on these boards) are separate from the price of real estate and its pressures...

Riversider: I never went to Rushmore because the ppsf was so high. but i thought i would take a look in case prices come down due to law suit. nice amenities. but i was literally hustled out of the building when i inquired about the law suit. it was so rude. my husband couldn't figure out what happened. they are clearly not telling buyers. since it would make a material difference to the value of new purchase even in the unlikely event they lose the case, i wonder if that is legal.

Has Mr. Miller been back on here since he made essentially this statement in a thread and I asked him if he really meant that? (I believe what he said was that shadow inventory was actually larger than the combination of Sponsor units and resales combined)

apt23, what exactly happened? You mentioned the lawsuit and they asked you to leave? Were there other potential buyers around? That doesn't seem like an affective way to sell condos either way.

"In Manhattan in the first quarter, sales were halved from year-earlier levels even as more apartments flooded onto the market, leaving it choking on an 18.6-month supply of units."

LICC, Juicy: HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE WITH THE TAX BENEFIT?

You know, your 18x annual rent theory? IT SHOULD BE AN ALL-IN SIGNAL!

Riversider: I never went to Rushmore because the ppsf was so high. but i thought i would take a look in case prices come down due to law suit. nice amenities. but i was literally hustled out of the building when i inquired about the law suit. it was so rude. my husband couldn't figure out what happened. they are clearly not telling buyers. since it would make a material difference to the value of new purchase even in the unlikely event they lose the case, i wonder if that is legal.

That's funny! They clearly need a better answer. Did a puff of smoke come from the broker's head?

so. basically, JM is admitting that his numbers are ... what... bs?

We already know his numbers are BS - when the crash hit he retroactively (and without notice) changed all the prior inventory figures UPWARDS, so it wouldn't look like inventory increased as much as it actually did. Basically the figures are unreliable.

The only source I would trust is SE.

Still waiting on Juicy's and LICC's comments: if 18x annual rent or higher is the norm as they claim, why is there so much inventory out there?

you cant trust streeteasy because they do not carry FSBO listings.

Why is this news? When I first said owners will have a hard time selling, bjw2103, stated I was making untrue statements. bjw2103, what do we do now that Crain's and J. Miller have validated owners will have a hard time selling?

Streeteasy also has many duplicates and fake listings by brokers. I'm guessing JM uses all of these sources as inputs and tries to clean them up. Not perfect and certainly unreliable, but I think as long as he uses the same methodolgy, over time it is the trends that matter.

Im not convinced that trends derived from incomplete or massaged data are really accurate.

"but I think as long as he uses the same methodolgy, over time it is the trends that matter."

If he used the same methodology then the figures reported in prior reports would agree with the figures reported for those reports in current reports. They don't.

> what does this have to do with green shoots? not a macro issue

Wait, is this for real? Did a bull just say that MANHATTAN RE IS NOT A MACRO ISSUE?

Wow, I'm amazed.

"Why is this news? When I first said owners will have a hard time selling, bjw2103, stated I was making untrue statements. bjw2103, what do we do now that Crain's and J. Miller have validated owners will have a hard time selling?"

mutombo, what are you getting out of flat-out lying? So: yes, you make a lot of untrue statements (as evidenced by your most recent accusation), and yes, sellers who aren't realistic about the market will have a hard time selling. You're right that's it's not really news to anyone who regularly reads this board, but there's really no harm in Riversider posting the link.

"We already know his numbers are BS - when the crash hit he retroactively (and without notice) changed all the prior inventory figures UPWARDS, so it wouldn't look like inventory increased as much as it actually did. Basically the figures are unreliable."

Do you have a link to what you're talking about? I'm not sure I see the harm in retroactively adjusting numbers if you get your hands on more accurate data. I'd want to see what he did before assigning any malicious intent to it.

bjw2103,

Why don't you stop cluttering brownstoner.com with your "buyers" remorse.

staddict: At the Rushmore, I was being shown the second apartment and we had plans to see one more. I was looking for sq. ft of above 1400 sq ft.. There was another buyer in another room. In a quiet voice -- my husband 4 ft away didn't even hear it-- I asked if they knew when the AG would determine the outcome of the suit because it would be imprudent to purchase without knowing the outcome. He said it was a flimsy suit and immaterial. I said that from what I had been reading there was certainly a modicum of concern. All of a sudden, he said, "Oh there is another apartment I can show you, come this way." I hadn't finished looking at this apt but he was urgent. We went down the hall to look at a 914 sq ft apt with completely obstructed views from every window -- a hideous industrial cover to some machines. I told him again that I needed at least 1400. He said "Well, I thought you might want to see this". Again I asked him about the suit saying, that in the very off chance that the buyers prevailed and then walked away, and it meant that sales then dropped to below 50%, certainly if the banks then refused to finance, that would be material. He just said "That won't happen". Then we went off to what I thought was going to be the third apartment but we ended up in the lobby. I asked about the third apt. and he said that would have to be by private appt, they only show two apts on open house days.

Ironically, the fact that they were asking $!.4 million for the 914 sq ft apt with views of what looked like a toxic waste dump 50 ft away, just made us realize that prices there are so out of whack that even if they come down they are ridiculous. But I must say, nice gym.

mutombo, you never did set up your email as promised? I think that's a better forum for your particular brand of nonsense.

"yes, sellers who aren't realistic about the market will have a hard time selling"

This, to me, is one of those cop outs. You can define "realistic" as whatever you want, so its basically a meaningless statement.

But, yes, buyers in WB in the last few years for the most part seem to have made a clear mistake.

"This, to me, is one of those cop outs. You can define "realistic" as whatever you want, so its basically a meaningless statement."

A cop out from what exactly? It's not a meaningless statement - for sales to happen, buyers and sellers have to have a meeting of the minds as to what places are worth. That can be a very subjective thing, but sellers have to listen to what buyers are saying if they truly want to sell. That's being "realistic."

"But, yes, buyers in WB in the last few years for the most part seem to have made a clear mistake."

Typical jackass comment from you, obviously directed my way. There are obviously people all over the country who got suckered into buying when they probably shouldn't have, but how often do you pass judgment on little information?

Ap23 Why do you like the gym? Is there any equipment yet?
Ironically, the fact that they were asking $!.4 million for the 914 sq ft apt with views of what looked like a toxic waste dump 50 ft away, just made us realize that prices there are so out of whack that even if they come down they are ridiculous. But I must say, nice gym.

"I'd want to see what he did before assigning any malicious intent to it."

Go onto his website.

"A cop out from what exactly? It's not a meaningless statement - for sales to happen, buyers and sellers have to have a meeting of the minds as to what places are worth. That can be a very subjective thing, but sellers have to listen to what buyers are saying if they truly want to sell. That's being "realistic.""

Bla, bla, its still meaningless. It takes on meaning only if it includes something like realistic being 20% down from 2007. Otherwise, its just a bunch of hot air.

> Typical jackass comment from you, obviously directed my way.

Wow, sensitive, aren't you?

And, no, it was about WB in general.

But somebody is clearly touchy...

"There are obviously people all over the country who got suckered into buying when they probably shouldn't have, but how often do you pass judgment on little information?"

"little information". ha. I've got all the info needed to demonstrate a market crash, and its clearly more than 99% of those buyers had! Well, maybe they got more "info" from folks like you, but thats just bad info.

Ap23 Why do you like the gym?

Riversider: I liked it because it was large -- a lot of nice equipment with space between the machines so you don't risk exposure to the 'heavy perspiration set'. Also they had rooms for stretch, etc They also have classes. But mostly because it was on the first floor so there was plenty of light. I can't abide the gyms in the basement.

"Go onto his website."

Yes, but which specific charts are you talking about?

"Bla, bla, its still meaningless. It takes on meaning only if it includes something like realistic being 20% down from 2007. Otherwise, its just a bunch of hot air."

I think you should read the whole thread to understand why the statement was made; otherwise it just seems like you're picking an argument for the sake of picking an argument. Yes, it's even more informative when we can attach hard numbers, but there's nothing wrong or even "cop-out" about what I said. If you want to complain about all similar statements made on this site, you'll need to quit your day job.

"Wow, sensitive, aren't you?"

You're pretty transparent - singling out that neighborhood in a post responding to mine? Just looking to needle, in my book. But hey, I guess if that's your bag, go nuts.

apt23, thank you for the details, very interesting. The tone of the articles in NYT and the Post certainly don't make it sound flimsy or immaterial. And if it "won't happen" then why keep it so secret too?

ap23.
I think the sales person probably felt he was had no chance of a sale with you. I'm not sure I agree on your take.

Riversider: In fact, we are serious buyers. The apt that he didn't show me was the one I had specifically come to see. In my price range. Nice floor plan. And we are not only ready to buy, we have to move by November. Why else would you waste a beautiful summer day looking at apts. My husband showed great interest in the apartments we were shown and he only asked the availability on the higher floors -- my husband is not as concerned about price as I am. Everything was going splendidly and he was taking us seriously until I asked about the suit. I only asked about the suit because the apt. seemed like a possibility and I wanted to fish around and see if there were any concessions to be had. Clearly not. If he felt we were not serious then he was dead wrong. We did lose interest after the bum's rush and the long walk back to civilization. The apt. I never got to see coulda been a contenda.

This doesn't seem like the market to be pre-screening buyers. If you are right Riversider, they will never sell all of those apartments. They still have ~100 to sell, and a lot more if they suits win.

apt23, did you ask what % sold the building is? I'm curious what they are saying now, as they have been lying about this number for over a year now. You'd think they would be more careful now, but I doubt it. The NYT article said 60%, but the sales office has been quoting near 70% for a long time.

SEaddict: he either said over 60% or well over 60%. This was when we were being rushed out of the apt, so it was a little hazy. I asked if it had to be over 70% for financing and he said financing was not a problem. He also said that sales were going well and were not affected at all by the suit.

Thanks again,

The building has been on the market for 3 years now, I wouldn't classify that as "going well".

bjw2103,

Has been caught in another case of fabrication, as he often misinterpret facts, he posted the info below:

1 Northside Piers = ~50 units left
2 Northside Piers = 270 (don't think anything's in contract)
The Edge = ~475 (tough to know exactly, given limited info)
125 N10th = ~45
20 Bayard = 21
268 Wythe = 12
Warehouse 11 = ~100 (??), unclear what will happen
80 Met = ~70
Ikon = ~12
101 N5th = 7
Rialto = 11 left
129 Met = ~10 left
111 Kent = 63
14 Hope = 20
Aurora = 2
Aqua = 3
229 North 8 = ~50
90 North 5 = ~8
North 8 = 3
Sevenberry = 4
Mill Building = 3
218 N8th = 3
136 Met = 9
349 Met = 21 (??)

"Quick tally of "northside" condos that are currently available, or in a state of completion that should put them on the market in the next year or so (I'm sure I've missed a smaller development here and there, feel free to add):"

The media states W'Burg and not just N W'Burg why do bjw2103, continually, isolate the entire neighborhood? The templated numbers posted by bjw2103 in regards to units in W'Burg are false and way off as his template only includes N W'Burg.

mutombo, I don't get your crusade, really, or your need to follow and reprint my posts on Brownstoner. The vast majority of construction was targeted at the northside, which by any account is a pretty sizable area, so I think it's fair to focus on that. Greater Williamsburg is just not in the same price range and hasn't yet attained the same desirability to most, so while there's nothing wrong with getting into those areas, I think it should be discussed separately. And as I said above, if anyone has any buildings to add to the list, please do - it was put together fairly quickly, but it's not a "fabrication" or a "misinterpretation." Again, if you have a personal problem, I'd rather discuss that over email rather than clutter up these threads anymore.

bjw2103,

You shameless hall monitor, how dare you talk about reprinting a post. To focus on one section of W'Burg is not fair as the media states W'Burg and not just the NS of W'Burg. When you summed up W'Burg at being 1400 units at max its a false account because you are only talking about the NS of W'Burg.

mutombonyc. wow pretty aggressive for a blog. Why don't you take up his proposition and discuss it further - and hopefully with some civility-- on email.

mutombo, why should I follow what the media does? I'd like a little more clarity on that inventory report before I'm comfortable citing it as fact, that's really the crux behind this. My count is NOT false and I very clearly specified the northside as the area in question (though you were the one who added the quotation marks, mysteriously). Stay classy.

apt23,

Mind your business.

Back to JM's stats. It's easy to question his data collection, and I'm sure there are flaws, but to outright dismiss them without offering an alternative is not constructive. And to say they do not inform I think is incorrect, however flawed. I'm not trying to be a cheerleader, but I do think he is one of the few in the NY RE world that is impartial and does not have an agenda.

bjw2103,

You follow what the media does when it seems to benefit you. When inventory reports pertaining to W'Burg are released you post that template displaying inventory on the NS of W'Burg when infact, the reported numbers pertain to all of W'Burg. Stop fudging numbers with your buyers remorse.

mutombo, like when for example? And how does it "benefit" me? I'm not fudging anything - if you've got better numbers, share them. Until then, you're just flapping your gums. Still waiting on that email you promised...

bjw2103,

W'Burg a diverse neighborhood and DUMBO a fringe neighborhood. W'Burg schools are peforming at a stellar rate. LOL. The above two statments don't benefit you? I know you and know that you are very nervous as reality is occurring and setting in. The burden of proof on you regarding numbers which are higher then you posted, I called you out on those erroneous numbers as I realized you were telling fibs.

mutombo, more distortions? Your tactics are despicable. I've said the following things:
* Williamsburg is a diverse neighborhood. I'm not sure how this benefits me other than enjoying the area where I live. It has no real financial impact on me, I think.
* Dumbo is a niche neighborhood (NOT "fringe" anymore), which isn't surprising given how tiny it is. Again, don't know how this benefits me. I like visiting the neighborhood actually.
* Williamsburg schools are decent and improving (NOT "stellar"). This may eventually benefit me, but that doesn't make it untrue. The DOE stats are there, and local parents seem happier; sorry you want them to do poorly.

The "burden of proof" is definitely on you at this point, since you haven't posted any data or facts. So maybe I should be calling you out for propagating bs and being so fixated on everything I type.

wow remember that thread a fw weeks ago where BJW accused me of being the ONLY one writing about how bad an investment W Burb RE was? Notice not 1 post above is from me BJW???

petrfitz, not sure if I said you were the only one, but I wouldn't say mutombo is exactly great company to have. Let me ask you though - do you not make a distinction between the property you live in and the ones you use as investments?

bjw2103,

*Do you know the history of DUMBO?

*My tactics are not as despicable as yours. W'Burg schools are improving and those improvement continue to include, students barely making a passing grade as nyc10022 pointed out because you correctly read the DOE stats.

*You post the amount of inventory from the NS of W'Burg to pass it off as being the entire W'Burg to try and cushion the entire W'Burg housing debacle and glut of inventory. But yet you don't have anything to benefit?

Written by bjw2103 "There are obviously people all over the country who got suckered into buying when they probably shouldn't have,"

Pertaining to yourself as we all know you are not happy with your mortgage.

mutombo,

* Yes. What's your point?
* I don't know what your point is. No one's saying these schools are Stuyvesant or Bronx Sci, but to say things like "students barely making a passing grade" is evidence of someone who has no knowledge of the schools here.
* Again, I specified the northside only.
* Congrats, we've completely derailed this thread. Where's that email you promised?

"Pertaining to yourself as we all know you are not happy with your mortgage."
You're hell-bent on convincing yourself of this. It's sad.

bjw2103,

I did not say the schools are barely making a passing grade, the DOE stats you live by found that. PS, IS or JHS will lead a child to Stuyvesant, BK Tech or Bronx Sci and Grand Street Campus can't compare to those 3 specialized schools.. As I told you I know the schools in W'Burg very well so don't assume and conclude.

By the end of 2010 4,000+ units are expected to enter the market in W'Burg.

mutombonyc@yahoo.com

> "Wow, sensitive, aren't you?"
> You're pretty transparent - singling out that neighborhood in a post responding to mine? Just
> looking to needle, in my book. But hey, I guess if that's your bag, go nuts.

Yes, SO transparent. *I* came up with WB. Sorry, nice try, but the freaking article is about WB!
You're complaining that I "singled out" the neighborhood featured in the post this thread is about.

Wow, you're not just oversensitive, you're WRONG (again).

Oh my lord!

bjw2103,

I'm not bent on convincing myself on your buyers remorse you subliminally express your buyers remorse everytime you get a chance.

LOL @ nyc10022.

"was made; otherwise it just seems like you're picking an argument for the sake of picking an argument. Yes, it's even more informative when we can attach hard numbers, but there's nothing wrong or even "cop-out" about what I said. If you want to complain about all similar statements made on this site, you'll need to quit your day job."

Not even close. This isn't an unquantified directional. This is a meaningless cop out. This isn't someone saying "up" or "down" and not quantifying. This has even less value than that. Its like saying "prices will be appropriate in 5 years". If you think thats the same level of rigor as even "up" or "down", wow, I just don't know what to tell you.... you already missed the boat.

> You follow what the media does when it seems to benefit you.

Obviously.

"but to say things like "students barely making a passing grade" is evidence of someone who has no knowledge of the schools here. "

Actually, if its the same schools that were talked about a few months back, then mutumbo is right. Bjw bragged about the letter grades, missing that those are relative grades, and the majority of kids were well below grade for reading and math.

If mutumbo is wrong, its because he OVERstated the school success, I think its much worse than that. The majority of kids are just behind.

nyc10022,

HELLO & Thank you.

"You're complaining that I "singled out" the neighborhood featured in the post this thread is about."

Actually the article's about all of Manhattan as well; don't distort it to try to prove your point.

"you subliminally express your buyers remorse everytime you get a chance."

Hilarious.

"Not even close. This isn't an unquantified directional. This is a meaningless cop out. This isn't someone saying "up" or "down" and not quantifying. This has even less value than that. Its like saying "prices will be appropriate in 5 years"."

So you're just posting to say "your post has no value." Congrats on ironically wasting everyone's time.

bjw2103,

*I don't believe you know the history of DUMBO.

*This thread has not been derailed as it clearly shows you an owner in W'Burg, looking to sell and screwed.

I have always stated the schools haved improved but are continuing too perform poorly. According to bjw2103, W'Burg PS are performing at the Quaker, Sidwell Friend School grade LOL.

nyc10022,

I agree with your statemnet majority of the kids are behind. I know the schools in W'Burg very well and the private/catholic/parochial school performance is not much if at all better.

"By the end of 2010 4,000+ units are expected to enter the market in W'Burg."

On top of what's out there now? If so, that is a complete fabrication. You're clueless.

"missing that those are relative grades, and the majority of kids were well below grade for reading and math."

I didn't miss anything. Ironically, you can't read; I've never said these schools were top schools; all I've said is that they're decent and improving. It's amazing to me that you claim to know so much about them when you neither live here nor have any kids here.

"I don't believe you know the history of DUMBO."

Again, a statement based on nothing. Nice.

"This thread has not been derailed as it clearly shows you an owner in W'Burg, looking to sell and screwed."

It's been totally derailed, but you guys seem to be enjoying it at least. The only thing that's correct in that last sentence is that I'm an owner.

bjw2103,

Yes, whats on top of what's out there now for the entire W'Burg not just the NS of W'Burg.

A grade of 65-70 is decent? You would do anything to see your property value increase LOL. I know more about W'Burg than you would ever know and yes, I still reside in W'Burg as I have for 31 years without children of my own.

bjw2103,

SCREWED is very correct as its damn near creates a compound word with owner.

"Yes, whats on top of what's out there now for the entire W'Burg not just the NS of W'Burg."

Maybe some evidence would help.

"A grade of 65-70 is decent? You would do anything to see your property value increase LOL. I know more about W'Burg than you would ever know and yes, I still reside in W'Burg as I have for 31 years without children of my own."

Where are you pulling "65-70" from? What does that even relate to? Or are these just empty numbers again? There is a specific grade for school performance as well, where several schools scored an A. There are also grades for improvement, and overall grades, so anyone can do the research themselves instead of reading through all the babbling going on here (link: http://bit.ly/AAyjy).

I'm also not sure what you're bragging about. Where in Williamsburg do you live? And how do you know so much more about the schools if you don't have kids yourself?

bjw2103,

I live on Driggs Ave in the SS of W'Burg I attended the schools in W'Burg.

So you know about the schools from back then, fine, but as I've said, they're much improved since then (as evidenced by your syntax). It was a pretty awful neighborhood back then.

> "You're complaining that I "singled out" the neighborhood featured in the post this thread is about."

> Actually the article's about all of Manhattan as well; don't distort it to try to prove your point.

You're lying to "prove" your point. The headline says city, then the specific analysis they're talking about says FiDi and WB.

"An analysis conducted by Crain's, with help from Mr. Miller and brokerage firm Aptsandlofts.com, shows the scope of the problem in two bellwether neighborhoods: Williamsburg and Manhattan's financial district."

I'm sure you just "missed" that.

Then the rest of the article goes on to talk ONLY about WB! Half of the entire article is about WB!

Man, you are CLEARLY oversensitive!

"And how do you know so much more about the schools if you don't have kids yourself?"

bjw, you recently gave birth to a 5-year old? Congratulations!

"I live on Driggs Ave in the SS of W'Burg I attended the schools in W'Burg."

Yes, but don't you get it... now that bjw has talked to you, the expertise transfers to him!

"It's amazing to me that you claim to know so much about them when you neither live here nor have any kids here."

Not nearly half as amazing as the hypocrisy.... bjw will talk about neighborhoods he doesn't live in and present himself as an expert.... and, unless he did some medical miracle, talk about schools he doesn't have any kids in!

But, wait, he talked to mutumbo, so now he's an expert!

"You're lying to "prove" your point."

My only point was that you seem to enjoy attacking people on here. You're doing a wonderful job proving that point.

"bjw, you recently gave birth to a 5-year old? Congratulations!"

Uh, what? You're a real piece of work my friend.

"bjw will talk about neighborhoods he doesn't live in and present himself as an expert"

You mean like you talking about Williamsburg right now? Hilariously hypocritical.

nyc10022,

LOL, you have the best sense of humor.

bjw2103,

The schools have improved but are still performing poorly and if W'Burg schools performed at an A+ grade your property value will continue to decline. The neighborhood was not awful back then, why do you think it was so easy to transition the neighborhood to a bunch of vacant overpriced condos? Today, W'Burg an alcoholic haven with bars on every block or every other block mixed in with drug users. Syntax applies to you but the laws of nature don't is this because the laws of nature don't benefit you?

bjw2103,

You will never sell your overpriced condo for a price more than and/or equal to what you mortgaged it for. Truly, I don't believe you know any parents that have children that attend schools in W'Burg as you read the stats grading the schools in district 14 and misinterpreted them.

bjw2103,

"bjw will talk about neighborhoods he doesn't live in and present himself as an expert"

"You mean like you talking about Williamsburg right now? Hilariously hypocritical."

What did nyc10022 say that was hypocritical?

bjw2103,

"And how do you know so much more about the schools if you don't have kids yourself?"

"bjw, you recently gave birth to a 5-year old? Congratulations!"

bjw2103,

Will hypocritically troll the rest of his mortgage life.

"The neighborhood was not awful back then, why do you think it was so easy to transition the neighborhood to a bunch of vacant overpriced condos? Today, W'Burg an alcoholic haven with bars on every block or every other block mixed in with drug users."

Ok, starting to think you don't actually live here. It WAS awful in the 80s and even early 90s in most of the neighborhood. A friend of mine's older brother lived on Havemeyer back then - just a totally different place than what it is now. I don't know what you mean by "drug users" exactly, but it's no different than any other neighborhood I've lived in in this city. Same for the bars.

"Syntax applies to you but the laws of nature don't is this because the laws of nature don't benefit you?"

Thanks for illustrating my point. That was completely unintelligible.

"You will never sell your overpriced condo for a price more than and/or equal to what you mortgaged it for."

How much was my mortgage, mutombo? You're clueless brother.

"Truly, I don't believe you know any parents that have children that attend schools in W'Burg as you read the stats grading the schools in district 14 and misinterpreted them."

Well, sorry you don't believe it, but if it makes you more confident in your case, go for it.

> You mean like you talking about Williamsburg right now? Hilariously hypocritical.

You're not too swift now, are you. Tis YOU who screamed that you can't talk about neighborhoods you don't live in, not I!

Hypocrisy is all yours!

> What did nyc10022 say that was hypocritical?

Mutumbo, he's confusing his own hypocrisy with everyone else's. He's the one who used the "you have to live there" line when it suits him, and then it doesn't matter when THAT suits him, and he's talking about somewhere he doesn't live.

> "bjw, you recently gave birth to a 5-year old? Congratulations!"
> Uh, what? You're a real piece of work my friend.

ROTFL.

Which is it, bjw, you suddenly have kids in WB schools?

> LOL, you have the best sense of humor.

Thanks, mt.

You're distorting things - I think actual residents are more credible than people who think they know more. You guys make a formidable duo, have to say. Do you combine (like Voltron) to form some kind of super-jackass?

"A friend of mine's older brother lived on Havemeyer back then - just a totally different place than what it is now."

And since bjw talked to his butcher's uncle's mom's math teacher who once lived in WB back then, he's got the expertise now, too!

bjw2103,

If W'Burg was awful back in the 80's/90's you have to make the same statement about the entire NYC. You were probably scared to walk down the streets during those times as you are today. Bars were not found throughout W'Burg as they are today, if one wanted to bar hop, they had to take it to MnHtTn as Bklyn was not that type of borough. Your mortgage is set at one price and your asking price won't coincide for you to make a profit I know that about your mortgage and so does all of SE.

bjw2103,

Cars normally decline in value not RE property.

mutombo, of course things were different in other parts of the city as well. Nothing to do with the point I'm making. My mortgage is set, you're right (that's the beauty of a mortgage, but you knew that, right?), but you have no idea what it is, and I have no asking price. I don't think you understand how a purchase actually works.

nyc, you're hilarious, but you also have minimal cred on this board unfortunately.

"You're distorting things - I think actual residents are more credible than people who think they know more"

Yes, you claim that when its suits you, and then you'll go on for hours about dumbo and park slope and fort green!

thats the definition of a hypocrite!

Btw, if there are all these credible people out there, why don't you stop posting, and spend your time getting THEM to post?

> nyc, you're hilarious, but you also have minimal cred on this board unfortunately.

Yes, because anonymous posting on message boards is all about "credibility"!
Seriously, get a life.

Its even sadder that you think you have any of the imaginary "credibility" you pine for. Few folks on this board, outside of Steve F and perfitz, have been proven wrong as many times as you....

"You guys make a formidable duo, have to say. Do you combine (like Voltron) to form some kind of super-jackass?"

Yes, I do usually find that liars get VERY annoyed by the truth. Its why so many brokers get so cranky on this board...

bjw2103,

I understand how a purchase function and will not follow in your shoes as you have buyers remorse. nyc10022, has a great sense of humor and have great credibility unlike yourself on this board. bjw2103, Stay classy.

I still love the whole bit from bjw on "well, you don't know anything, you don't have kids in school", yet he doesn't either!

always changing the story to fit what suits his case in that particular instance...

Classic bjw2103, when proven wrong call people a super-jackass. Stay classy.

well, I am a jackass, so at least he's finally (half) right about something!

nyc10022,

Thats from the same person that types Stay classy.

"Btw, if there are all these credible people out there, why don't you stop posting, and spend your time getting THEM to post?"

That's exactly the thing - OTHER people told you you were wrong and you still denied denied denied. Get it?

"Its even sadder that you think you have any of the imaginary "credibility" you pine for."

You don't have to take my word for it - other people have said it. It's especially hypocritical given how you avoid explaining the whole EddieWilson bit time and time again (and you will now, again). The only people who have really taken issue with me here are you, mutombo, and petrfitz. Great company you keep!

"I still love the whole bit from bjw on "well, you don't know anything, you don't have kids in school", yet he doesn't either!"

The big difference being I actually live here. You have no relevant ties here, yet you claim to know more than people who do. Get a grip.

Shadow inventory.........right?
That's what this thread is about.....right?
Inventory counting and credability......right?
And Now.........
The Reality:
1. Most buyers are not SE addicts. (some dabble)
2. Most RE agents are not SE addicts. (even fewer dabble)
3. Many bound into RE purchases with little to no research or preperation and depend on lic. RE professionals to do the homework and the thinking. (as I type it it almost sounds laughable)
4. The cadre of regulars here have been talking about this shadow inventory for months so it comes as no suprise to us. The general public, which is about everyone else, will be influenced by these dubious details in the way that all those that allow others to think for them are. Dubious indeed!
5. The SE folks forget that WE are the freaks. We are the ones obsessed with the details, truth in reporting and inventory analysis. The problem is...there's not many of us. Most are out there winging it with the advice of a RE professional of dubious ability.
the dubious word really appealed to me.

falco, definitely. There's tons of dubious info out there that unfortunately gets regurgitated until it's accepted as truth, so there's no harm in trying to get into the details and seeing what's really at work here.

ROCK me Amadeus!

falco, that's why there's such a reaction when the media, particularly mainstream, finally starts printing this news. we here are like, no shit, that's been happening for months. the general public is astonished. as i have mentioned many times, i know so many people who feel their property hasn't really declined much in value at all. the news can be like a bucket of ice water dropped from above.

nice use of dubious.

"Shadow inventory.........right?
That's what this thread is about.....right?
Inventory counting and credability......right?
And Now.........
The Reality:
1. Most buyers are not SE addicts. (some dabble)
2. Most RE agents are not SE addicts. (even fewer dabble)
3. Many bound into RE purchases with little to no research or preperation and depend on lic. RE professionals to do the homework and the thinking. (as I type it it almost sounds laughable)
4. The cadre of regulars here have been talking about this shadow inventory for months so it comes as no suprise to us. The general public, which is about everyone else, will be influenced by these dubious details in the way that all those that allow others to think for them are. Dubious indeed!
5. The SE folks forget that WE are the freaks. We are the ones obsessed with the details, truth in reporting and inventory analysis. The problem is...there's not many of us. Most are out there winging it with the advice of a RE professional of dubious ability.
the dubious word really appealed to me."

BING!!!!!!!!!!

Pick any prize off the first row........