Crains and J. Miller(condo owners looking to sell are scewed!)

Falcogold1 let your freak flag fly man!

Falco's and AR's comments about how the market just gets the information all at once is interesting. I suspect that what we are seeing here is some of the pricing instability that results from not being able to short the residential RE market. Markets that you can't short are generally less stable than those that allow shorting.

Markets that don't have mechanisms to short them generally run up and up and up, momentum building. This is because there's an asymmetric benefit to the value of bullish versus bearish information. There's little incentive to develop the bear case out there, and so it just comes flooding out all at once when outlet picks it up -- it is a zeitgeist thing. Then, these markets destabilize wildly as bearish information flows through the system causing a panic. Mania-Panic-Collapse

3. Many bound into RE purchases with little to no research or preperation and depend on lic. RE professionals to do the homework and the thinking. (as I type it it almost sounds laughable)

falco: to me, this seems most true with new buildings. people buy like lemmings assuming that the ask price is fair market value without researching the market. but take a look at the resales in the trump buildings on riverside, or 10 WEA or Avonova, etc. ( I am anxious to see the first resale prices at the Harrison and Rushmore). so far, these sellers are taking a bath.

> "Btw, if there are all these credible people out there, why don't you stop posting, and spend your time getting
> THEM to post?"

> That's exactly the thing - OTHER people told you you were wrong and you still denied denied denied. Get it?

Really? The williamsburg parents all posted here? The park slope folks you "hang out with" that give you credibility came and posted here? All the people you claimed to have talked to that are supposed to give you credibility.

Ha. Liar.

Make me laugh, thanks.

Can't say I'm surprised!

> You don't have to take my word for it - other people have said it.

Folks have said you're more right than I am?

Lies again!

Funny thing is, nobody backing up your lies here, either.

Just you and your imaginary friends.

Hey, if thats what you need to get you through the day!

> The only people who have really taken issue with me here are you, mutombo, and petrfitz. Great company you keep!

Lets see, my fan club is you, LICC, perfitz, alpine, and SteveF. Yours is even worse than mine!

And, the difference is, all of your "company" is WRONG, too!

Sorry!

"I still love the whole bit from bjw on "well, you don't know anything, you don't have kids in school", yet he doesn't either!"

> The big difference being I actually live here.

Really, you moved to Ft. Green, Dumbo, AND Park Slope this week. Impressive!

You moved AND gave birth to a five year old.

Wow, congrats.

Change your story all you want, you are liar and a hypocrite... and wrong most of the time.

Sorry.

> You have no relevant ties here, yet you claim to know more than
> people who do. Get a grip.

"relevant ties" = you know a guy whose mother's pimps butcher went to school once. Sorry, I do know more than you, no matter how many butchers you have. Proof is in the pudding, you've just been wrong over and over again.

And you tell me to get a grip.

You're a total joke.

"The Reality:
1. Most buyers are not SE addicts. (some dabble)
2. Most RE agents are not SE addicts. (even fewer dabble)
3. Many bound into RE purchases with little to no research or preperation and depend on lic. RE professionals to do the homework and the thinking. (as I type it it almost sounds laughable)
4. The cadre of regulars here have been talking about this shadow inventory for months so it comes as no suprise to us. The general public, which is about everyone else, will be influenced by these dubious details in the way that all those that allow others to think for them are. Dubious indeed!
5. The SE folks forget that WE are the freaks. We are the ones obsessed with the details, truth in reporting and inventory analysis. The problem is...there's not many of us. Most are out there winging it with the advice of a RE professional of dubious ability.
the dubious word really appealed to me."

I said something fairly similar a week ago (and, hypocritically, got yelled at by bjw".

Totally agreed, the general populace doesn't know most of this (and most of the general populace here lives in, well, housing here). They're MONTHS behind on this stuff. There are folks out there who still don't know about 20% declines, and a healthy chunk that only found out after the Q1 reports came out.

oh, missed this..

"falco, that's why there's such a reaction when the media, particularly mainstream, finally starts printing this news. we here are like, no shit, that's been happening for months. the general public is astonished. as i have mentioned many times, i know so many people who feel their property hasn't really declined much in value at all. the news can be like a bucket of ice water dropped from above."

Totally agreed.

Too many wishful bears think everybody knows, but so many are SO far behind here. This is why RE markets have such intertia.

Remember the zillow surveys where folks, after 20% declines nationwide, all thought their homes hadn't lost value? of course, many thought their NEIGHBOR's houses has.

This is what I've been saying since the beginning, RE markets have incredible inertia.

"Really, you moved to Ft. Green, Dumbo, AND Park Slope this week. Impressive!

You moved AND gave birth to a five year old.

Wow, congrats."

roftl. Sorry, I'm still lauging at this one

"Markets that don't have mechanisms to short them generally run up and up and up, momentum building. This is because there's an asymmetric benefit to the value of bullish versus bearish information. There's little incentive to develop the bear case out there, and so it just comes flooding out all at once when outlet picks it up -- it is a zeitgeist thing. Then, these markets destabilize wildly as bearish information flows through the system causing a panic. Mania-Panic-Collapse"

This is funny: quite a number of years ago I was in a "continuing education class" which was basically a breakfast with speakers run by Larry Silverstein for NYU's RE continuing ed program. I don't remember who the speaker was, but I made a comment that the problem with RE information services (which at that time were pretty much solely in the business of providing info to developers) were "skewed" because the developers didn't really want to "know" the information, they had already decided to develop. What they wanted was a third party confirmation of some numbers to show to investors, banks, etc. As a result, no one would ever pay for negative information. Everyone looked at me like I was the biggest blasphemer since..... I don't know who.

"Really? The williamsburg parents all posted here? The park slope folks you "hang out with" that give you credibility came and posted here? All the people you claimed to have talked to that are supposed to give you credibility."

Do you really want to rehash every single argument we've had yet again? There aren't many WB posters here, so there hasn't been a lot of opinion posted on that (other than your astute comments of course). If you're really that curious, search for the parent forums (http://bit.ly/syjSC). There were definitely actual residents who agreed with me re: commute to midtown from Greenpoint, as well as the ridiculous Park Slope boundary discussion, but really, what's the point of doing this again if we're not going to agree. On the important topics, anyone else can check for themselves; beyond that, given how unbelievably contentious you are, I don't care if you agree.

"Folks have said you're more right than I am?
Lies again!
Funny thing is, nobody backing up your lies here, either.
Just you and your imaginary friends."

Not lies! Remember this thread, started solely due to your aforementioned contentiousness? http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11716-all-fights-between-nyc10022-and-someone-else-should-just-be-here
aboutready summed it up nicely: "frankly, i find bjw much more credible in your interchanges than you." Doesn't get more clear than that. And which of your imaginary threads are backing your lies here? I don't think anyone else cares at this point given how drawn out these threads get. Add to this your whole denial and ignoring of your stint as EddieWilson (which is just bizarre), and you're just not a poster that can be taken too seriously.

"Lets see, my fan club is"

Oh, there's a lot more people who have taken issue with you, please.

"roftl. Sorry, I'm still lauging at this one"

Exactly - never trust a man who laughs so hard at his own jokes.

my greatest concern is to hear from the lemmings--only they can properly assess the market

"only they can properly assess the market"

They can't assess it..... but they ARE it!