Where do we stand?

inventory is lower but still seasonally high. everything else is pretty much the same, except things are even slower. it's making some cranky.

have you found a long-term place to live yet?

http://www.urbandigs.com/

here you go sniper, smart move buying already.

we have a 1 year lease on a home in Tenafly. We move in Monday. Since beginning of July (when we closed) we (myself, wife and 2 daughters) have lived in a friend's 5000 sq ft pad (pool, gym, theater, etc) in West Nyack, NY and for the last 2 weeks our final taste of the city in a friend's 1000 sq ft Duplex in Chelsea. The home we move to Monday is sized inbetween those two. Thanks for asking.

so you live in Jersey now? Well, according to nyc10022's rules, you are now prohibited from posting on SE. GOODBYE!

no, alpie, sniper is wisely renting. he so wonderfully shared the details of his sale, nuts to bolts. he's welcome here.

sounds like a fun summer. glad to hear you found a place for you and yours.

so is inventory down as a reslut of sales or people pulling off for summer?

Inventory is falling because prices have fallen, stimulating sales. It's like econ 101. Unfortunately, I'm thinking this all may come to an end soon enough.

sniper, both. There's been a pretty healthy amount of activity the past few months (even during this typically slower season) due to lots of lowered prices. At the same time, lots of listings pulled, probably for several different reasons (want to fully enjoy the summer, higher degree of comfort with the economy seemingly improved, trying to "refresh" for the fall, etc.). I doubt the high activity is sustainable, but regardless, I don't think there's any pressure to rush out and buy right now. Inventory has dropped considerably, but it's still at fairly high historical levels.

"so you live in Jersey now? Well, according to nyc10022's rules, you are now prohibited from posting on SE. GOODBYE!"

Actually, that was alpo's rule! He wrote it, I just pointed it out to him!

I guess he's so slow he didn't even remember he came up with it!

> http://www.urbandigs.com/
> here you go sniper, smart move buying already.

SteveF, why are you being so nasty to the new guy?

sniper is not "new" nyc10022. Going on a hitatus and re-appearing does not make you a new poster.

and in regards to the NJ housing market, there has been a big uptick in sales (See chart below). However, take in mind that the chart relies on data from the GSMLS. Bergen County uses the NJMLS.

http://njrereport.com/images/jul09_salesinv.gif

Also, the NY Tiems recently published this article. In case you have not read it yet, I will post it:

Hopeful Signs in Housing

HOMEOWNERS and sellers of New Jersey, are you sitting down? You are about to read a recent state housing-trend analysis that’s not half bad: Overall sales are up; inventory is down; and, after three years, home prices may be on the verge of halting their decline.

In June, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose company issues monthly reports to the real estate industry, there was a “breakthrough”: the number of home sales exceeded that of June 2008 by 12 percent. Such a year-over-year increase has not occurred since midsummer 2007, said Mr. Otteau, the president of the Otteau Valuation Group in New Brunswick.

The supply of homes on the market has been reduced by 41 percent since the start of the year, he said; the drop has been steady each month. At the same time, the number of home sales increased 90 percent since January, when the market was “icy.”

There is now a nine-month inventory of homes for sale; that number was 16.9 months in January. “That’s a ‘wow!’ ” Mr. Otteau said. “It means we have burned off nearly half the inventory over the first six months of the year.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/realestate/26njzo.html

Yes, "great" news... Jersey is still falling. That makes you wrong for yet another month!

and the Fed Reserve has confirmed the positive news in the above article in their latest Beige Book:

Housing markets remained soft throughout most of the District, though there were signs of stabilization in a number of areas. Contacts in northern New Jersey indicate that the market has a somewhat more positive tone than in recent months: prices, though still down about 15 percent over the year, appear to have stabilized somewhat and volume has picked up moderately.

New York City's market, however, has shown further signs of deteriorating, in both the sales and rental markets. In the second quarter, the median sales price for existing co-ops and condos in Manhattan reportedly fell 26 percent from a year earlier, while the number of sales transactions fell 50 percent; the inventory (number of units listed) was up 9%, though there is reported to be a substantial "shadow" inventory of new apartments--condo units that are unsold but not yet listed. Brooklyn's and Queens' markets have also slackened in the second quarter, with median prices of existing apartments reported to be down 15 to 17 percent from a year earlier, and the number of transactions down roughly 30 percent.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/Beigebook/2009/20090729/2.htm

nothing I posted says NJ is still falling.

"Since closing on the sale of my apartment I went off SE cold turkey about 2 months ago and was wondering if someone could give me a (mostly) factual update as to where things stand in the NYC real estate market at this point. The last I remember, prices were still falling, inventory was high, deals were happening mostly on lower-priced properties and sellers were mainly resistant to the reality of the market.

Where do we stand now? "

Since the latest quarterly report, Elliman came out with contract numbers showing that this quarter will be down as well.

Volume picked up off awful levels, but still relatively low, and inventory still near its 5 year high.

And, more importantly, prices still falling.

sniper has previously indicated he will be buying in NJ (assuming he has not changed his mind). I don't think the Elliman report is of much use to him.

Sniper, my favorite typo is "reslut." Thanks for the chuckle. And happy new rental.

If at first you don't suckseed.

evnyc (i saw that too, priceless) and 30yrs, both hilarious.

30years, awesome.

I'm a fast and bad typist, so I do these typos all the time. They cheer me up when I have to go back and edit the crap I've written.

:)

interesting read
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/13981-summer-of-our-discontent

yeah, sounds like things are GREAT in Jersey:

http://www.nj.com/business/nj-real-estate/index.ssf/2009/08/more_nj_homeowners_fall_behind.html

Borrowers who qualified for conventional loans - non sub-prime - continue to have a tough time. New Jersey's unemployment rate crept up to 9.3 percent last month.

"We've got a long way to go, and this is not going to be easy," said E. Robert Levy, the executive director of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey. "You've got a lot of job losses, you've got people that have reduced incomes."

"Elliman came out with contract numbers showing that this quarter will be down as well.
Volume picked up off awful levels, but still relatively low, and inventory still near its 5 year high.
And, more importantly, prices still falling."

Couple things to note: first, Elliman didn't release anything to my knowledge - the contracts were reported second-hand via the Real Deal. For reasons I've beaten to death on this board, contract data should be taken with one giant grain of salt, especially when we don't have the actual data to look over here. Second, from what urbandigs has been saying, volume has NOT been "relatively low" - it was at near-peak levels in May-June, and now seems to have slowed a bit, but still higher than traditional summer months (http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/08/manhattan_charts_urbandigs_llc.html). Inventory has come down quite a bit, but definitely agree it's still high, and much of it has to do with people pulling listings off the market (for a bunch of different reasons, one can assume). Finally, this has all been happening precisely because prices have come down. Unclear at this point how much further they'll go down and at what pace, but I don't see appreciation anytime soon - prices will flatten out at best.

Most foreclosures in NJ are in bad areas you would never want to live in. Don't get your hopes up on those tpyes of gloom and doom articles.

...kinda depressing...once you slut it's never as good as the first time...there's only resluting.

still higher than traditional summer months (http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/08/manhattan_charts_urbandigs_llc.html).

Two charts are inventory and sales numbers going back 6 months.

Did you confuse it with another chart?

"Did you confuse it with another chart?"

No, sorry, should have been more precise. Was referring to this paragraph in the post:

"As you can see the gap between new listings hitting the market and the pace of contracts being signed has narrowed significantly over the past 5 months. This is one reason why buyers who did not pull the trigger yet may have noticed some of their top value listings go into contract. As I stated 10 days ago in my quick update, "The market is still considerably more active than it usually is for this time of year yet, it doesn't seem as crazy as it was during the months of May & June". This statement still stands today."