http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125081143925447971.html A survey conducted in June of 1,500 real-estate agents sponsored by the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance found that 36% of all sales involve "nondistressed" properties. Of the nondistressed sales, only 31% were what the survey described as "unforced or optional." The rest were sales by homeowners in some kind of financial or personal... [more]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125081143925447971.html
A survey conducted in June of 1,500 real-estate agents sponsored by the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance found that 36% of all sales involve "nondistressed" properties.
Of the nondistressed sales, only 31% were what the survey described as "unforced or optional." The rest were sales by homeowners in some kind of financial or personal crisis.
"Think about that for a minute," John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors wrote this week. "Two-thirds of home sales are either foreclosures or banks taking a loss on the mortgage." And only a third of the remaining one-third -- roughly 10% of overall sales -- comes from "something we could call a normal selling process."
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The number of mortgages with overdue payments rose to a seasonally-adjusted 9.24 percent of total mortgages in the second quarter of 2009, according to today's Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey. That's the highest it's ever been since the MBA began keeping records in 1972. The figure is up from Q1's figure of 9.12 percent, and up nearly from 6.41 percent last year.
The percentage of foreclosures is at the highest in three decades: it's at 4.3 percent. Loans overdue by at least 90 days -- which is an indicator of foreclosures to come -- rose to 7.97 percent, the highest on record.
some more from the very first link (...since subscription is needed to read this piece.)
"...[MBA] said Thursday that the number of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments hit a new high during the second quarter, with more than one in eight homeowners delinquent or in the foreclosure process. So it is likely that sales will stay mired on the low end of the housing barbell.
Last July, sales of existing homes hit a five-month high, leading the NAR to openly hope a sustained upturn was coming.
It wasn't.
Today, home sales are roughly where they were last year. Given the state of the consumer and the rise in foreclosures, they may be at this point again next year."
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Response by Riversider
about 17 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
jjun4733 I expect liquidation rate to start increasing. There is a disconnect between rising delinquencies not matched by a rise in new liquidations. The delinquency pipeline is backing up. Picture a dam about to burst. And a great deal has been written about the redefault rate on modifications.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/mortgage_delinquecies_rise_to.html
The number of mortgages with overdue payments rose to a seasonally-adjusted 9.24 percent of total mortgages in the second quarter of 2009, according to today's Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey. That's the highest it's ever been since the MBA began keeping records in 1972. The figure is up from Q1's figure of 9.12 percent, and up nearly from 6.41 percent last year.
The percentage of foreclosures is at the highest in three decades: it's at 4.3 percent. Loans overdue by at least 90 days -- which is an indicator of foreclosures to come -- rose to 7.97 percent, the highest on record.
http://www.radarlogic.com/research/RPXMonthlyHousingMarketReportforJune2009.pdf
some more from the very first link (...since subscription is needed to read this piece.)
"...[MBA] said Thursday that the number of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments hit a new high during the second quarter, with more than one in eight homeowners delinquent or in the foreclosure process. So it is likely that sales will stay mired on the low end of the housing barbell.
Last July, sales of existing homes hit a five-month high, leading the NAR to openly hope a sustained upturn was coming.
It wasn't.
Today, home sales are roughly where they were last year. Given the state of the consumer and the rise in foreclosures, they may be at this point again next year."
jjun4733 I expect liquidation rate to start increasing. There is a disconnect between rising delinquencies not matched by a rise in new liquidations. The delinquency pipeline is backing up. Picture a dam about to burst. And a great deal has been written about the redefault rate on modifications.