Enough with all the doom and gloom !!

says it all:

Mjh1962
about 3 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse
I totally totally swear I'm not a broker--I would reveal my secret identity and give you all my cell number to check, but that would just not be a wise decision would it :)

Good luck to all who are buying, thinking about buying, happy renting, or not sure what to do at all

Btw Slope11217, I'm a high school and college grad and the only thing I do at the Gap is shop

What is he? A trust fund kid whose dad just gave him a big check to buy his 1st apt?

Ladies and Gentlemen Exhibit A above

mjh, if you're so tired of it, then quit looking. i'm absof'nglutely happy, and renting. who is exhibit A, someone who disagrees with you?

and if you're employed you might wish to spend a second thinking of those who aren't. that wouldn't be this family, but i still try to spare a thought, because they're not only statistics, they're people. is that negativity? or appropriate human concern for the less advantaged?

if you dont like the threads -- do not read them.

Amen!

Mjh1962: This one's for you: "Economy In Much Worse Shape Than Expected: White House"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32551478

This life is based on predictions LOL.

Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that's wonderful is sure to come your way
'Cause you're in real estate, you're in debt,
And debt is here to stay!

i want unicorns.

Informed investor is the one who is able to look at both sides and make sound judgement.

U.S. Raises Estimate for 10-Year Deficit to $9 Trillion

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/business/economy/26deficit.html?_r=1&hp

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration, citing an economic downturn that has been deeper than it had first thought, raised its estimate on Tuesday of the government’s deficit over the next decade to $9 trillion from $7.1 trillion.

[more more more]

from the above article:

For the first time, administration officials officially predicted on Tuesday that unemployment would climb above 10 percent by early next year, from 9.4 percent in July.

The costs of the additional unemployment and the slower growth extend beyond the next year or two, not just because the economy will take longer to return to normal but also because the government’s interest expense will be compounding more rapidly.

Mr. Orszag estimated that, by 2019, interest expenses would account for more than 80 percent of the projected deficit of $917 billion.

I'm so tired of looking at this site and seeing prediction after prediction of skyrocketing unemployment, 50%, 60% drops in prices--it's pathetic.

The ironic thing is, there were folks who complained almost verbatim about the 25% drops and skyrocketing employment a year ago!

Just goes to show you that folks should probably have talked MORE about it.

I think the doom and gloom postings are a good thing - for us buyers, at least.

After the 1987 peak, NYC RE prices didn't hit bottom until 1995 and didn't start rising again significantly until 1997. But you have to wonder about all those people who bought apartments in NYC from 1988 to 1994. What were they thinking? Were they all total chumps? It seems that during that deflation a steady trickle of chumps was available, and each seller could basically roll the dice and hope to catch one along the way down. Otherwise they would have had to lower their prices faster.

I think it happened that way because people just didn't have as much access to information and alternative opinions as we have today.

This time, we have the Internet. So we can share all our doomy/gloomy predictions and hopefully reduce the pool of chumps out there for sellers to take advantage of. Since I'm potentially in the market this time if the price is right, I want the market to hit bottom much faster than after 1987. So I'm fairly new to StreetEasy but I think it's an excellent site, and all the doomy/gloomy discussions work to my advantage.

wasnt nyc a much dirtier, more dangerous place post 1987? since many quality of life issues have improved then isn't it possible for the market to improve more quickly than then?

Maybe so, but the 2000~2008 inflation in NYC was much more steep than the 1980~1987 inflation, in a way that I think was vastly disproportionate to those quality of life improvements. Also, the current crash has been characterized by a huge shift in power from Wall Street to D.C., which was not true after the 1987 crash. That will eat into some of those

I think there's still a ways left to go before the bottom.

maybe you are right. i think the decision to buy is an individual one, and is effected by factors that go beyond price. this might not be the very bottom of the market, but there are still people out there who feel good enough about the price they are paying to pull the trigger

Post87, how will you know the bottom when you see it?

I bought in 1991. I hadn't really paid much attention to the preceding boom, and just had a vague sense that there was less competition for what was out there. We could afford what met our reasonable wants, had a broker in the Village and a broker on the UWS to weed out the good ones, and that was that.

If we'd waited for the paper to tell us the bottom had arrived we'd still be waiting. As it was things stayed steady from 1991 for several years, and we know what happened from there.

You can't really know the bottom except in hindsight, but it's much better to buy early on the up-swing than anywhere on the downswing.

Not sure what you mean by "steady", NWT. Things went steadily down until 1995, flat until 1997, then steadily up until 2000. Then, lucky for you, when the tech bubble burst someone at the Fed got the bright idea to replace it with a housing bubble. What are the chances of that happening again?

it does seem that some people do revel in the idea of the market getting worse

It's not schadenfreude. It's self-interest.

What's the difference between buying at x on the downswing or x on the upswing? Why would the intervening x-y matter?

I tracked only my own building for those years, when it was a very shallow curve going up until the later 1990's. Very small sample. I don't know whether we were all less RE-obsessed back then, but I certainly was.

my only point is not every single buyer is as motivated by buying at the absolute lowest possible price. Like NWT, many just want to be able to buy at a price they can afford.

and that there will be people saying one day "i should have bought then"

What goes up must come down. If things went out of control, and most of the people overspent, there is going to be a counterbalance. There has to be some common sense when you buy something, unless you are a zillionaire or a fool.

yeh.. some people love transactions at any price... you are like Don King... get in there Tyson.. no, you nowhere near past prime... just keep swinging... eastsidebroker, howz biz? plz... 'you're gonna miss the train' is so 2007, can't you come up with a better reason to buy in this bubble?

to NWT's question I have two answers:

1) Time value of money. You could have invested your money in something else during your x-y period, earned a better return than the real estate, and gotten yourself a nicer place on the upswing.

2) Better knowledge with hindsight. On the way down, you never know how much further it will go. On the way up at least you know how much the place has appreciated since the bottom, so you can better assess the real value. If you can predict the future and know that you are at the exact place on the way down where you would otherwise buy on the way up, then I agree this point is not a big deal, but there is still (1). And anyway who can predict the future?

hey man, i know people who want to buy now....i havent talked them into it, they have come to me. when they ask if i think the market is going to go any lower i say "i don't know" (the truth) and we go out and look at property. if they want to buy, we proceed, if they decide to wait, then...well you can guess the rest. and business is ok, i wasnt around long enough during the "bubble" to feel a signifacant decrease in business this last year.

'There has to be some common sense when you buy something, unless you are a zillionaire or a fool.'

OR.............A ZILLIONAIRE DANCING FOOL!

that would be my dream...

Yes, if I were a zillionaire I would dance like a fool, and to hell with anyone who laughed at me. ;)

Well, see, eastside, your buyers are exactly the people I'd like to somehow coax over to the Dark Side. For every one of them that crosses over we may accelerate the deflation by a day or a week or a month - who knows? That is why I like to post here and share my doom and gloom.

i wasnt so much responding to you post87, but to the mean spirited w67. I am not in business telling people to wait. If they wanted to wait the wouldnt be talking to me in the first place. I kind of think it ironic that you want people to wait so that you can than reap the benefit of the bottom.

It's self-serving. I don't know if it's ironic. But just because I have an interest doesn't mean I'm wrong.

eastsidebroker I would've bought this summer had sellers been realistic in terms of pricing but since they refused to budge, I renewed my lease for another year & will begin looking again in about 6 months and I think I'll be very happy that I did.

i find irony in it because i am happy to have peoples business now (which is self serving) while you would prefer no one buy now (for your own reasons). i don't know whether you are right or not. i know i am not hurting anyone by helping them find a place is they truly feel like this is their time to do it.

Certainly, eastside, you've got your job to do and I'm not criticizing you for it. I'm just trying to spread the bad good news. If I help lose you some sales, well, it was nothing personal. ;)

fortunately i live pretty modestly. dont have to do much to do ok!

eastside,
read your comments and agree. no one has a crystal ball and I'm sure your not using a hook and pulling them off the streets. A decending market only fuels the buyer's engine. You should be out there selling and bridging the gaps with common sence and practical timely wisdom. The fact that you spend time here is a testimate to your dedication. You would be amazed at a RE agent I met recently who acted as though it was 2007. She claimed that the properties that she represents are immune to such price pressures. I told her to hurry up and show the place before they realize she's missing from the the top floor of the Museum of Natural History.

It's irresponsible to ignore the truth - we go lower from here.

eastsidebroker

and that there will be people saying one day "i should have bought then"
___________

maybe instead there will be people saying one day "i should have sold then" - remember there are not a lot of fundamentals supporting current pricing levels in Manhattan (...outside of the "bigger fools" and that subset can't be as large as it was just even a few years ago)

for them to be able to sell, they need someone to buy

There are lots of buyers out there - including most people on this site.

Sellers ARE able to sell. They just have to hit the bid prices out there. (Lots of buying interest at 20% to 30% discounts).

to be clearer: selling at a 15-20% discount now may look attractive (in hindsight) if prices continue to plummet going forward (this is what I read in a story about Japan real estate).

thus: "I should have sold then" (at a lower loss) than in the future (a bigger loss)

and it is a highly individual decision, fueled by emotion as much as cold numbers. if you want to buy and you couldnt afford what you wanted to before, but now you can, and beyond thhat can get something better that you ever would have thought that is pretty irresistable to some

Alas, eastsidebroker, price-to-rent ratios by historical standards are anything but "irresistable" - well higher than they were in the late eighties - and that was hardly a great buying opportunity - even after prices had dropped by 1990.

not to be pedantic, but again, doesnt it really depennd on the individual buyer to decide what is attractive to them?

eastsidebroker, of course people buy based on emotion. without that even easy credit couldn't cause a bubble. and in an environment where the media has so little time for rational discussion of risk, many people will see the positive news and assume that the bottom is in and their is no more risk.

but by many traditional measures, rent/buy, price/income, it is still an awful time to buy. buying just because you can afford to now didn't work out so well for millions of people.

"not to be pedantic, but again, doesnt it really depennd on the individual buyer to decide what is attractive to them?"

yes, we certainly cherish our innate freedom to act foolishly but.....the bailout strategy has changed things, hasn't it? we are all a victim of artificially low interest rates and other government manipulations that all keeping the air in the sails of re and other questionably valued assets.

It's defintiely up to the individual buyer to decide what's attractive to them. Some people just want to own their own home(or apt) It's yours, you can do what you want with it.It really is a personal decision and the truth is none of us knows what will happen with prices. There are very good arguments for prices continuing to decline, how much and for how long no one knows. There are arguments that Manhattan is a unique market and we're close to a bottom. I think everyone shoud do what they feel comfortable with. Interest rates are very very low, they wont stay there forever. So if prices come down and interest rates go up--it could be a wash. If you're a happy renter--great. If you own a place and you love it-great, if you want to buy a place and you find one you love--buy it. Being NY'ers I think we all know how important it is to have an apt that you feel comfortable and happy in when you get there!

well said....some of the points i was trying to make without success.

"So if prices come down and interest rates go up--it could be a wash."

really? except if you ever want to sell. then, it's not a wash--it's a flush--a flush of your money down the tubes. keep this drivel to yourself---not fair to people looking for real information.

and---what argument is left that manhattan is a unique market?

it's not even uniquely overpriced. london is as well.

Thank you Eastside broker, you sound like a decent guy and good broker who has a fair and reasonable perspective on things. I thought my post was fair and balanced--it basically boils down to do what you are personally comfortable with whatever that may be

Columbia Country you are just an unpleasant human being who never has anything positive or helpful to say about anything. I would be thrilled if a troupe of tap dancers moved in above you and you spent the next 50 years in a ground level rent controlled apt that faces a brick wall. And I'm done with you now.

hey--shoot the messenger. a time proven formula for failure. does it not occur to you that it is helpful to let people know that manhattan is not a unique market somehow magically not subject to the economic forces that are roiling our country and the world? are you the kind of person who tells someone who is ill that all is well and they don't need treatment?

how far does the rule about doing what is personally comfortable go for you? how about doing what you think is right even if it doesn't enable immediate graficiation? how many stories have we seen of people who bought more than they could afford? how many more people need to screw themselves before you're happy?

"wasnt nyc a much dirtier, more dangerous place post 1987? since many quality of life issues have improved then isn't it possible for the market to improve more quickly than then?"

Yes, but its all relative in this case. Say we have 2x the quality of life. We also have 5x the prices. A good stock doesn't have to become a bad stock to lose signficant value, it just has to lose some of its luster.

> and that there will be people saying one day "i should have bought then"

Similar things were said about the last bubble. Yet, almost a decade later, I'm STILL waiting for someone to have said that about pets.com ;-)

Right now, 2004-7 looks like a "maybe should not have bought" period. And for that to change, you need a return to bubble prices... which rarely happens anytime soon after a bubble pop.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/26/real_estate/July_new_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009082610

New home sales blast past expectations
More people are buying: Sales of new homes hit their highest level since last September.

According to CNN

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/comment-on-house-prices.html

i am available to those people who have analyzed the data and decided that this is the appropriate time for them to buy. i don't search my soul looking for reasons to talk them out of something they have decided for their own reasons they want to do.

Shoots past if you r loooking for sub $250k, anythig above that is still tanking. The last time a 1 bdrm sold for below $250 k in NYC was .... You guessed it pre 2001. Lmao. Honesty is speaking the truth when it goes against your ' own ' interest. You know a mother jumping in front of a car to save her child. A mother not smoking crack bc she finds out she is pregnent, a broker telling people to rent bc we r in a crazy bubble. You know that kind of honesty is what I seek. Not if the banker/Obama man says I can,then yes we can - from bob the builder, my sons 3yo philosopher.

Thanks, Mjh and aboutready. Those sources are both talking about national data. In NYC, as we all know, housing price inflation was much more severe than the national average, and continued for two years longer than the national average. Furthermore, NYC prices have not yet fallen proportionally to the national average. Finally, with the exception of a few messed up locales (like Las Vegas and Florida), NYC's over-supply is much more extreme than other areas.

So it's entirely possible that most of the country has hit bottom in terms of real estate prices, but NYC is still not even close.

post87, if you read the calculatedrisk piece it specifically discusses higher-end bubble markets. i agree with you. CR is saying that any housing bottom has only occurred in select locations, not everywhere.

Sorry, you're right, AR. Yes, we are in agreement.

listen, the main point here is this: mjh is of the opinion that if you want to burn your money, take a shit on your money, eat your money, etc, you are an American and free to do so.
And I agree with him! Wholeheartedly

just don't be surprised if most of us are laughing at you while you doing, that's all. As an American i'm free to laugh when you fall down and go boom

Have prices gone lower since the spring? No..
Have prices gone up since the spring? Yes..in some areas.

Bottom in girls.
Time to own up.

CarolSt, blatantly misinforming are we? The truth is you can and will still be able to get good deals. If you have any solid basis for near-term appreciation, share it, but I've yet to see anything of worth.

Lecker I agree 100%:

"maybe instead there will be people saying one day "i should have sold then" - remember there are not a lot of fundamentals supporting current pricing levels in Manhattan (...outside of the "bigger fools" and that subset can't be as large as it was just even a few years ago)"

Excellent point!

Actually mjh is of the opinon that he doesn't give a s*it about what any of you on here do since he doesn't know any of you, doesn't care to know any of you and this is just a waste of time. These posts are a huge collection of unpleasant people for the most part. Bottom line--most of you just cant afford to buy an apt and are bitter about it. The end

since you don't know us i'd say that's quite the overgeneralization.

my point is that if this feels like the appropriate time to buy for a particular person then they should go for it. i am not personally trying to change the mind of anyone who doesnt feel like it is the right time

Totally understand your point of view, eastside, and you are entitled to it. I, on the other hand, specifically want to change people's minds. Everyone, don't buy until prices come down at least another 25%.

Mjh, it's interesting, but over the long term real estate prices, like everything else, follow the larger economic patterns. If you look at things like general inflation and population growth, as well as improvements to the city and the housing stock, it becomes clear that we are still deep in bubble territory, and there is a long way to go to the bottom. Again, I would cite the 1987 crash as an example, and suggest that based on the larger economic factors the deflation this time should, if anything, be even more severe than the 1987 crash.

And yes, I would like prices to come down, so I can afford something better than what I can afford at current asking prices. But that doesn't mean I am wrong.

Jesus, Carol St is still an idiot...

> Have prices gone lower since the spring? No..

Elliman reported contract data at lower prices Q3 over Q2.
uh, whoops!

> Have prices gone up since the spring? Yes..in some areas.

Yes, on the one apartment on the one block carol is probably lying about. Sorry toots, you're still off...

> Bottom in girls.

I'm not going anywhere near your bottom, you're fat.

> Time to own up.

Agreed... when you gonna do it, fatty?

Since the market is "flying high again" only question I have is ......

girl? or boy?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOdTlnCruzk&feature=related