New York real estate prices start rising

> surely significant in psyhcological impact.

to people in Buffalo, sure.

Considering the majority of this board and pretty much all of Manhattan ignored the first two years of Case-Shiller declines, not sure how it would be anything "significant" now. If anything, its a lousy sign.... it started declining 2 years before Manhattan, so we probably have at least that more to go here.

Not for this buyer. I won't even consider buying until Winter.

Thank god im buying a place in Troy, NY....this is great news!

Prices are getting more reasonable in general, but they still have a ways to go. Just saw a 900 square foot place for $899,000 in Prime Village. Get to $750,000, & it will be more in line with rents.

In any case, Case-Shiller does not include apartments, so it is basically irrelevant to Manhattan. Remember - the outer boroughs and the metro region started to fall long before Manhattan.

I just rode a unicorn to NYC.

w67, what is it with the unicorns?

Wouldn't you prefer eunuch horns?

"w67, what is it with the unicorns?"

Horn + ass = pleasure

Ah, CarolSt ... one of the long-establish identities on this site.

I love how Case-Schiller was trumpeted by the perma-bears on the way down and now is dis-reputable. Each side based on self-interest, proclivity, or some other persuasion will choose to focus on data that supports their position, quick to change their source when it is inconvenient. Many came on here to dispute the perma-bears pointing to Case-Schiller as indicative of NYC activity and were shot down.

Miller-Samuel provides the best data to analyze Manhattan-specific trends, and his numbers did indeed show a significant downward trend in Q2 data (which is obviously trailing and more accurately represents activity from Q4 '08 and Q1 '09). Preliminary reports for Q3 indicate that there is likely to be a modest increase from prior quarter, reflecting the tremendous pick-up in activity (though not necessarilly price) beginning in April and lasting through July (case in point, inventory on SE is down to 9,200 after peaking at 11,200).

So let the mud-slinging begin, but at the end of the day, the market will do what the market will do, and as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy, and particularly into the banking sector, I have a feeling we will not fare as poorly as some may suggest. I for one am decidedly more optimistic than where I was 6 months ago.

Caroldoublewidetrailer? Omg, you're back from the anger/ tv antenna/ pencil ramming therapy. Therapy, a complete waste of money I say. Did yo see $634psf on 220 rsb. That means ph is gotta trade at $400psf. How's that working for your clients.

If you see my unicorn, pls ride it back to w67. Your choice on which hole to put the horn in. I'm such a gentleman.

"and as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy, and particularly into the banking sector, I have a feeling we will not fare as poorly as some may suggest"

Aug 25, 2009, 9:29 a.m. EST
Early withdrawal
Commentary: The Fed is now quietly taking money out of the system

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Guess what? The Federal Reserve has not only stopped depositing copious amounts of liquidity into the economy -- it now appears to be in the process of making a sizable withdrawal.

So much for that Fed pumping money into the economy and banks to keep prices high thing....

hee hee perma bears keep swimming against the tide and keep on trying to prefectly time the markets. it will work wonders.....for your landlords...

"I love how Case-Schiller was trumpeted by the perma-bears on the way down and now is dis-reputable. Each side based on self-interest, proclivity, or some other persuasion will choose to focus on data that supports their position, quick to change their source when it is inconvenient. ."

Correction.... case shiller was rallied against by the perma-bulls, and then folks stopped looking at it to cover manhattan. That seemed to have been settled long time ago.

To claim that this is bears changing the story.

lol.

"Many came on here to dispute the perma-bears pointing to Case-Schiller as indicative of NYC activity and were shot down"

Thats just a lie. There were BY FAR MORE bulls pointing the other way. The bears who supported it were shot down... and, they were a minority.... a huge chunk of the bulls also challenged it!

So these claims are just laughable.

"hee hee perma bears keep swimming against the tide and keep on trying to prefectly time the markets. it will work wonders.....for your landlords..."

This isn't about perfectly timing markets, this is about knowing how to understand the fundamentals of finance, and well, math, to avoid making HUGE mistakes like perfitz, which have already blown up in his face.

are rents going up or down in manhattan ?

last report still had them going down, and 17-18% off from peak the year before.

Anecdotally, I've seen more evidence that they're going down further... tons of inventory and deals out there right now (because of the hot season that never came).

Besides Case-Shiller's housing MSA geographic breadth, I understand it only covers single family homes. A closer Case-Shiller measure for the Manhattan market is the condo index which considers the same broad MSA but features condo listings. I believe that "may" capture Manhattan condos in the northern-NJ to southern-CT swath. No co-ops in either measure, which misses approx 70% - 75% of the Manhattan market. Either way the condo measures (not seasonally adjusted) for the NYC-MSA showed -0.8% m-o-m, -11.6% y-o-y (largest decline to date), -15.6% since peak in Feb-06 (another indication this measure is off the mark for Manhattan properties).

Case-Shiller is great for broad US-economic generalizations as well as some regional insight, but it is far from a metric of interest in my propety search; unless considered as a 2-year lead indicator on the upside and possibly something shorter on the downside.

correction: -15.1% since peak

> and possibly something shorter on the downside.

or possibly something longer.

w67thstreet,
You idiot. Just because one bad apple was sold at fire sale levels doesn't mean all apples should be sold. I can put a small wager with you that the next unit sold at 220RB won't be below 700 psf. Dare to take this wager? Pop me a PM and i'll send you my lawyer info.

Is there private messaging available on this site?

"I love how Case-Schiller was trumpeted by the perma-bears on the way down and now is dis-reputable."

Not by me. Ever.

and yes RSB is NEW construction with a POOL not just a pool table and its got FOREVER views and not just till the homeless projects gets built and it's got in indoor garage not an open cesspool, oh and did I mention ITS IN MANHATTAN?

F'n pencil sharpening, tirade throwing, about to the homeless, unethical, LIC, uneducated, unfinancial, will sell her own parents for glue..... RE broker extraordinaire....did i miss something? Oh yeh, welcome back.

did you take the unicorn over to LIC? did it like it?

CarolSt, you REALLY seem to be super-sensitive here. You just really have trouble with prices having gone down?

Are you a broker?
Burned bubble buyer?

Why are you so angry that people are talking about losses on apartments?

> "I love how Case-Schiller was trumpeted by the perma-bears on the way down and now is dis-reputable."
> Not by me. Ever.

I have to say, it is REALLY funny.... we somehow jumped from bulls saying "up" to bulls saying "ha, it never went down as much as you said / as long as you said / whatever".

How exactly did we skip that meaty middle of, I dunno, lets say just ONE bull saying "uh, maybe I wasn't actually right about that crash can't happen thing".

In the last week, I've seen 2-3 bulls actually ask for credit for being right... meanwhile, I can't think of even one that admitted their mistake. Not one, even though we've got all their quotes saved in posterity. Nothing from juice or spanky or SteveF or perfitz or alpo or any of the others who dominated this board.

Not one.

"LMAO, tell your PH clients that Prime NYC is trading at $600 to 700 psf and say but PH is WORTH $800psf.... (fill in the blank you self serving whore).... I mean that in the literal sense...."

The last unit sold at PH and showing in Acris came in at 610 psf. This unit went into contract in June and closed recently. What's your point asshole? Did that horn pierced your testicles too on the initial thrust?

10022, did you really miss carolst's previous meltdown? it was one for the ages. broker.

State of things from my personal experience.

Landlord provided discount and I declined indicating that I am going to buy a place. He gave me further discount. The seller who I have been talking to for last 6 months (no broker sale / not listed) dropped her price by $50k as to firm my interest as we will be signing contract soon.

From the numbers, I feel like there is another 10-20% decline from the current price but rising interest rate will offset this for me as I am only doing 20% down. I think 2010 spring will be the deciding factor for how low can NY RE can go.

W67hstreet,
Your friendly neighbor bum's cardboard box home sold for less than .01 psf. Go get yours.

nyc10022,
I'm a broker and also a messenger of good news. My clients love me.
You've been DEAD wrong since spring. Where's that additional 40% collapse that you were predicting in the fall? Again...DEAD WRONG.

"> and possibly something shorter on the downside.

or possibly something longer."

Maybe nyc10022. My understanding is that generally there is a shorter bandwidth for Manhattan economic collapse and corresponding recovery in relation to broader measures. Hypothetically, if the US economy bottomed today I'd assume Manhattan bottoms well before Aug-2011.

Nice try Carolst but I'm keeping my money until the market drops even more--which it will. THERE I've put my bet into the NYC RE ring. Why don't you out of work agents go back to school & learn something new? There obviously isn't enough work to go around for you.

"nyc10022,
I'm a broker and also a messenger of good news. My clients love me.
You've been DEAD wrong since spring. Where's that additional 40% collapse that you were predicting in the fall? Again...DEAD WRONG."

Yes, I get it, you were one of those morons who brought "good news" in 2008 and convinced folks to lose a LOT of money. One of the folks who said there would be no decline!

Sorry, girlie, but I actually predicted 15-25% decline before the fall, then upped it to 25-35% once the fall began. And we're already in the 20-30% range.

And, you, the moron, who said we wouldn't decline is calling ME wrong.

Hillarous!

You're as stupid as you sound!

> 10022, did you really miss carolst's previous meltdown? it was one for the ages. broker.

I totally forgot! Wow, no wonder.

Somebody got SCHOOLED!

Wow, she's a long time idiot... SO pissed that we TOLD HER SO!

Sorry, honey, you got burned!

> You've been DEAD wrong since spring

Really, we've been falling since spring, too. Sorry, tootsie, you're still DEAD wrong no matter how much you capitalize!

WE TOLD YOU SO!

"My understanding is that generally there is a shorter bandwidth for Manhattan economic collapse and corresponding recovery in relation to broader measures."

I'm not sure what you're basing that on. Post '87, we got crushed for longer than anybody. RE market took FOUR YEARS to stop falling here.

So, wishful thinking for Manhattan, but it doesn't seem to be matched by history.

I guess CarolSt has to go back to her job as a grocery bagger. Sorry, hunny, but should have gotten that high school diploma!

nyc10022

How relative do you think the interest rate would be as per our current artificial rate.

From 1987 - 1991 the rates seems to be declining.
http://mortgage-x.com/images/graph/r_arm_frm.gif
http://mortgage-x.com/images/graph/r_30_prime.gif

"Really, we've been falling since spring, too. Sorry, tootsie, you're still DEAD wrong no matter how much you capitalize!"

Who's wrong again? Latest Case-Schiller numbers sure sings a different tune.
You idiot.

"I guess CarolSt has to go back to her job as a grocery bagger. Sorry, hunny, but should have gotten that high school diploma!"

The only thing i'll be bagging are your nuts with my sledge hammer. HEEEEYAH! *Splat*

"And we're already in the 20-30% range."

You telling me prices have gone down 20-30% more since the spring????

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they didn't do a very good job adjusting the meds.

ILuvNewYork,

So you missed the bottom. BOOOOHOOOOOOO......why don't you cry to AboutReady and laid next to her thunder thighs.

Who need med when you can chow down 3 BK triple whoppers!!!
Chow down my friend...chow!

once again, your wit is underwhelming, along with your grammar. keep trying, in all that you endeavor. aim for the top, i always say, whether it's being a sleazy lying real estate broker or a crazy out-of-control psycho. you've certainly got the latter down.

> "Really, we've been falling since spring, too. Sorry, tootsie, you're still DEAD wrong no matter how
> much you capitalize!"
> Who's wrong again? Latest Case-Schiller numbers sure sings a different tune.
> You idiot.

CarolSt. is now going by Case Shiller numbers?!?!

I guess she doesn't know how dumb she is!

Sorry, toots, you might be the worst broker in the world AND have no access to actual market data, but Manhattan numbers are STILL down.

Now, if you told me you were a broker in Jersey, maybe I'd believe that.

But, sorry chickie... you are DEAD WRONG... AGAIN!

(and that makes months and months and months now!)

> > You idiot.

It is funny how the stupidest people on earth are most likely to call others idiots...

"Get to $750,000, & it will be more in line with rents."

Steve say it aint so. I thought you held the line at 12x rent. Is 900 sqft $5200 a month in prime village?

"I for one am decidedly more optimistic than where I was 6 months ago."

Are you for one, or are you really one of many that may be right or may be wrong? I for one remember the last downturn where real estate languished for years while the stock market ripped. Look for two more years like this.

"So let the mud-slinging begin, but at the end of the day, the market will do what the market will do, and as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the economy, and particularly into the banking sector, I have a feeling we will not fare as poorly as some may suggest. I for one am decidedly more optimistic than where I was 6 months ago."

Interestingly enough, all that happened, and the government today announces that the recession is deeper and longer than we expected LESS THAN 6 months ago. And we've already surpassed all the "worst case" employment numbers.

So, I have a feeling you're already wrong... we're already doing as poorly as some have suggested, in fact,w e're doing worst than most suggested.

"hee hee perma bears keep swimming against the tide and keep on trying to prefectly time the markets. it will work wonders.....for your landlords..."

Didn't the tide just prove anyone who was cautious about buying into this market after 2004 right? Aren't we in the process of seeing where this is going to go. We are now in year five of renting being a better decision.

Rhino, you hit it right on the nose.

Crazy that we have folks who got it wrong trying to take viactory laps, when not one has admitted that the cautioners were 100% right!

"I think 2010 spring will be the deciding factor for how low can NY RE can go."

What's with the temptation to put such a short fuse on this downturn. The last one was three or four years wasn't it?

CarolSt is back!! Wow, hasn't it been awhile? Have things been slow for you honey, or can you tell us about all those apt's you've sold.
Big bucks, right?
I'm convinced you sell pencils at the airport (we all know how much you love pencils)

Can you shed some light on the amino acids situation? Should he be fired for posting (like a douche) from work ABOUT work?

And most importantly, can a 52inch widescreen fit in your ass?

It's been so long since I said it, but for good ole times sake (now that she's back):
brokers suck