Manufacturing Index Shows Economy Escaping Recession

Your subject line reminds me to ask you: Is your Frigidaire running?

How are you going to spin 8mm annualized auto purchases in September you moron? 70% of the economy is the consumer. The last three recessions were business spending driven. This one is consumer spending driven. How do you think the recession ended when unemployment is increasing, wages are down, hours are down, the savings rate is increasing to normal levels and is going to stay there, etc? Lots of people think unemployment is a lagging indicator but it's a lagging indicator in business spending driven recessions, not so much in consumer spending driven recessions since that's what's driving the recession. We have another 1-2 years before we're out of the woods. Unless you consider being in the middle part of the W out of the recession which you probably do since you just cite cnbc and msnbc.

NYC10013, children aren't just "little people". You have to relate to them at their level.

steveF, you musn't show any documentation regarding a potential end to the doom and gloom loved by so many on this board. only negative news applies and is acceptable! otherwise you are a moron and a child apparently

watch out for stocks to start selling off on good news. discussed yesterday. no doubt we have better data ahead, its no surprise anymore. but how stocks react is what most people will really use to gauge things!

I am hopeful but that's not what I've seen on the street.

And I don't know if these figures are heavily auto figures, but just to let you know, the importing industry was very tight because;
a) retailers had severe buying holds (either due to poor sales, tighten credit or both) which lead to
b) many cancelled orders with overseas factories which leads to
c) local manufacturers having a temporary foothold for goods already here to replenish empty shelves
and the concern now should be for...
d) surplus inventory backed up overseas looking to dump their product in the months ahead.

UD, maybe the stock market is just forward looking, although i seriously doubt it. this inventory correction and stimulus fueled boost is unlikely to last. so the market thinks that in a couple of months, things won't be so grand.

oh well, theories about the stock market can be entertaining. i was seriously wrong this time. just as i had come around to your thinking, this had to happen.

UD, i just saw your article on UD, missed it earlier.

jim are you still channeling him? steveF.. .was I a uber-bear when I bought property in 1990's, do i not still own in NYC (multiple properties)..... you guys are clueless... I'm giving you a blow by blow of exactly what's gonna happen... it's like your own Nostrodomus.....some bears even questioned my $500psf in prime nyc call in fall of 08'.

Trades are happening at $700. $600 RIGHT NOW... maybe if some of you actually "cared" about your clients you could still get them out at $700psf and a 200% increase from 2001... .I don't know.... maybe that's why you gotta sell your soul to be realtwhore....

Who would listen to anyone that is implying that the Manhattan market is at $700psf right now?

i thnk w67thstreet generally has an audience of 3...absolutely has to be the smartest guy in the room at all times

LICC $643 psf. Mr. Phlip Wong 220 RSB apt 4A. (43 sp ft. 1bdrm 1.5 bath WD, swimming pool doorman, HH views)... yep... no data to support $600psf... are you a fool?

LICComment, 75% off sale: http://curbed.com/archives/2009/08/31/harlem_circus_house_sells_for_over_75_off_original_price.php

w67 - you are trying to say that those two examples are reflective of the Manhattan market in general? If there is a question about which one of us is a fool, I think it is pretty clear it is not me . . .

A lot of opacity there.

it isnt important to w67thstreet that he be factual, only important that he is insulting and denigrates any opinion that isn't his own

But he has given SE users more data, opinion and laughs than you. What do you do other than denigrating him?

AR - the stock market is a discounting mechanism, that is not rational and not always right. I always questioned the foundation that this rally was built on and was wrong on its fierceness and duration. The market seemed overbought to me for weeks now, but that doesnt mean it cant go higher. When the market sells off on good news, you know the expectation is priced in and future expectation is now being adjusted for. Plus trades were crowded, MACD indicating a correction, short interest way way down, and momentum trades/program trades etc been having its way for months now. Margin debt UP, so investors are speculating with this rally. Yet it kept going. When China plunged 23%, you knew something was up. If we did same move down, S&P goes to 800. Long ways away. Many think its not possible again. Thats what you call complacency. It was a stimulus induced and less worse powered rally. But issues still remain.

I actually data will continue to improve as we see effects of stimulus. Impossible not too. But stocks may now look beyond that, and see there is a weak foundation with debt issues remaining. That was the argument. However, I push back my double dip to 2011, 2012 or so. Give stimulus a good year or two to work before we slow again.

insults, profanity and attempted character assasination should not be tolerated. that is a large part of a few members on this boards contribution

i can understand your point, UD. i just think state and city revenues are going to fall faster than the stimulus can keep up with. the budget shortfalls grow almost monthly. local governments are going to have to cancel projects. even if they're not laying off their own people, they're not hiring others that were projected to be higher.

i don't think the powers that be can keep up in the reinflation game. we don't disagree on anything other than timing. i'm sure they'd like to keep it going until late 2010. will be interesting to watch.

I had a friend who was an intern at one of the major networks local news stations one summer. He told me that over the day, they compiled 2 lists for the nightly business report: one of why the Dow went up that day and one of why it went down that day. At the end of the day, they looked at which way the Dow actually went that day and used the appropriate list.

LOL 30yrs