All bad things must end - economists say recession is over

yes well the job fair line in front of mad sq garden yesterday had 1k+ people on it.....looked like a depression bread line

Good morning Steve. Bloomberg was covering an investor this morning who believes that while we will see growth of 3.5 percent for the second half of 2009, that growth will slow to 1-1.5 percent in first half of 2010 as stimulous wanes. Also, the question will become how much cannibalization will occur for go forward numbers based on current spikes (tax incentives, clunkers). So while is still appears to be reversed, it is fragile nonetheless.

stimulous wanes??????? Barely none of the stimulous has been spent yet. somewhere around 8%. The majority of the stimulous will hit in 2010. Its going to be a good year - artificially good but still a good year

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

All that money is coming right back to service our debt. China picked up 800 billion of our goodies in MAY!!!!

The 800 billion is total holding...

yes -- the clunkers and house incentives are passed us this year.

only a certain amount of the stimulus program was direct spending. 37% i think was for tax cuts, which we already see the effects of, and a significant amount for states, largely medicare, education and unemployment. those will just prevent the holes from getting larger, which is good, but is not really stimulating anything. some school districts may be able to avoid layoffs as the money comes in, but i think we'll see that effect shortly. the states still have $26 billion in budget gaps to overcome, after cutting widely and even with the stimulus, and the number grows all the time. and that doesn't cover smaller government, many cities are going bankrupt.

When did the 1991 recession end...when did Manhattan real estate bottom? I know, its different this time.

I'll answer my own question. April 1991...and some time in 1993 or 1994. And we have not yet even confirmed this recession has ended. Good luck with a bull call on NYC real estate. And I say NYC instead of Manhattan to include the suckers in LICC.

Yes, it's totally different.

If you've ever seen a Planet of the Apes movie, you know what New York was like in the early 1990s.

Now it's a blue-skied utopian fantasyland ... just go outside, you'll see. Sun, perfect temperature, perfect humidity, light breeze, clean air, no traffic, etc. etc. Who wouldn't continue to bid up the price of prime midtown acreage in such a beautiful place?

Sarcasm? Yeah if we cut peak in half it wouldn't still be a 3-bagger from the 1990s trough. Maybe that captures some of the improvement from the dystopic depths of 1994. Yes, I remember when I came back from college to Westchester, Manhattan was under martial law. I need to re-watch Gangs of New York and The Warriors.

The only better return is in crude oil. Maybe Manhattan is like the concept of Peak Oil. There is no alternative to Manhattan. A SuperCity if you will. Your fat rolls off, and any chick is within reach.

I haven't in my life seen the amount of suffering that people I know are experiencing. I know several people that are so completely broke that are you now coach surfing to survive. This really does need to end soon, but it probably won't.