Moodys Says Peak Home Prices Won't Return for At lEast 10 Years!
Started by The_President
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
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I'm sorry, but whether your a bull or a bear, you have to take any 10 year projection with a grain of salt. Better yet, make that 20 pounds of salt. Seriously, when was the last time someone successfully predicted something 10 years in advance? And secondly, why in hell are we listening to rating agencies? Weren't they the one giving out Triple A ratings like they grew on trees? Shouldn't... [more]
I'm sorry, but whether your a bull or a bear, you have to take any 10 year projection with a grain of salt. Better yet, make that 20 pounds of salt. Seriously, when was the last time someone successfully predicted something 10 years in advance?
And secondly, why in hell are we listening to rating agencies? Weren't they the one giving out Triple A ratings like they grew on trees? Shouldn't companies like Moody's be prosecuted? In California, the attorney general is investigating credit rating agencies for their actions. Hopefully we will see people being thrown into the back of police cars.
And even more distrubing is this article I found from 5 years ago that discusses how Moodys and other rating agencies give poor ratings to comapanies that don't pay up. (Isn't this called black mail?) So why on earth Moodys is being cited as an expert is beyond me.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8032-2004Nov23.html
ok, so now that I am done ranting, what does everyone think of Moody's prediction?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-wont-regain-peak-this-decade-moodys-2009-09-18[less]
Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
I'll take just about anybody's predictions over alpo's.
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Response by Riversider
over 16 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
I'll go with the Radar Logic forward contracts as a base assumption, Thank you
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Response by Post87deflation
over 16 years ago
Posts: 314
Member since: Jul 2009
10 years would be similar to the last big real estate downturn, so it's not a crazy prediction, if one really had to make a prediction. However I agree that this is the kind of thing one shouldn't even try to predict.
I think inflation is the big X-factor this time around. Inflation was minimal in the '90s but will probably be large at some point soon given all the money the Fed has printed, so there is at least one thing that could cause the current downturn to turn out differently.
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Response by ChasingWamus
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Dec 2008
It's been discussed before, but I think future inflation will crush home prices in real dollars. Nominal prices may go up a little but home affordability will be squeezed too much by rising food, energy, medical costs and higher taxes to keep up with inflation.
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Response by ChasingWamus
over 16 years ago
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... and interest rates.
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Response by Riversider
over 16 years ago
Posts: 13573
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Considering the debt the we've taken on . We have two choices. Higher taxes or debase the currency. Which path do you think we'll take? Seriously....
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Response by jvillacorta
over 16 years ago
Posts: 22
Member since: Jul 2009
may be moodys knows something that many people we do not know!!!
i will say after 2012 we will see something interesting!!!!!!!!!!!
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Response by The_President
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
if moodys knows something we do not know, I sure wish they would have shared it with us back when they were giving out Triple A ratings!
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Response by The_President
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2412
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if there is hyper-inflation, then wouldn't that be GOOD for housing?
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Response by The_President
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
I actually have to take back what I said about Moodys. They guys there are geniuses!
Moody's thinks house prices will bottom in early 2009
Let's say the projection is accurate. for me - not a speculator - buying RE now and knowing I'm not at the top of the market even if I may not be at the bottom of it, is an attractive proposition.
Ten years out seems a bit extreme, but a lot can happen even in five years...a lot has actually happened in less than a year - when I was looking at the bleak stock market in March, I couldn't have predicted a rally that would sustain through the summer.
I'll take just about anybody's predictions over alpo's.
I'll go with the Radar Logic forward contracts as a base assumption, Thank you
10 years would be similar to the last big real estate downturn, so it's not a crazy prediction, if one really had to make a prediction. However I agree that this is the kind of thing one shouldn't even try to predict.
I think inflation is the big X-factor this time around. Inflation was minimal in the '90s but will probably be large at some point soon given all the money the Fed has printed, so there is at least one thing that could cause the current downturn to turn out differently.
It's been discussed before, but I think future inflation will crush home prices in real dollars. Nominal prices may go up a little but home affordability will be squeezed too much by rising food, energy, medical costs and higher taxes to keep up with inflation.
... and interest rates.
Considering the debt the we've taken on . We have two choices. Higher taxes or debase the currency. Which path do you think we'll take? Seriously....
may be moodys knows something that many people we do not know!!!
i will say after 2012 we will see something interesting!!!!!!!!!!!
if moodys knows something we do not know, I sure wish they would have shared it with us back when they were giving out Triple A ratings!
if there is hyper-inflation, then wouldn't that be GOOD for housing?
I actually have to take back what I said about Moodys. They guys there are geniuses!
Moody's thinks house prices will bottom in early 2009
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/07/moodys-thinks-house-prices-will-bottom-in-early-2009/
Housing bust may not bottom till 2010: Moody's
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE48T6UW20080930
Moody's Economy.com Study: U.S. House Price Bottom by Year's End, 36% Off Peak
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2009_Feb_9/ai_n31314494/
Moody’s report predicts home price bottom this fall
http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/moodys-report-predicts-home-price-bottom-this-fall/
Moodys expects bottom in home sales volume in early 2008:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/19/real_estate/steeper_price_slump/index.htm
Moodys: Housing will hit "asbolute bottom" in spring 2009:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93835600
may be moodys knows something that many people we do not know!!!
i will say after 2012 we will see something interesting!!!!!!!!!!!
SURE MOODY'S HAS A GREAT TRACK RECORD!!!
Here is another gem:
Moody's: Tampa home prices won't hit bottom until 2009
http://blogs.tampabay.com/realestate/2007/12/moodys-tampa-ho.html
South Florida house prices won't hit bottom until 2010, [Moody's] report says
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/housekeys/blog/2009/02/south_florida_home_prices_wont_1.html
Let's say the projection is accurate. for me - not a speculator - buying RE now and knowing I'm not at the top of the market even if I may not be at the bottom of it, is an attractive proposition.
Ten years out seems a bit extreme, but a lot can happen even in five years...a lot has actually happened in less than a year - when I was looking at the bleak stock market in March, I couldn't have predicted a rally that would sustain through the summer.
I guess that puts me in the bull camp.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_djgssszshgM/Sp5dmuLit0I/AAAAAAAABAQ/hEhe3UCcHcw/s1600-h/pricklycity090209.gif