Sellers More Realistic Than Buyers in Today's Manhattan Real Estate Market
Started by The_President
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
Discussion about
Great piece from True Gotham: As far as who is more realistic in terms of their expectations in today's Manhattan real estate market, the scale has definitely tipped toward sellers. Before you get all crazy on me, here me out. I'm not AT ALL suggesting that it is a seller's market...because it's not. That said, it also is NOT the buyer's market that many believe it to be. Most sellers and their... [more]
Great piece from True Gotham:
As far as who is more realistic in terms of their expectations in today's Manhattan real estate market, the scale has definitely tipped toward sellers. Before you get all crazy on me, here me out. I'm not AT ALL suggesting that it is a seller's market...because it's not. That said, it also is NOT the buyer's market that many believe it to be.
Most sellers and their agents have already adjusted asking prices to reflect recent depreciation. Of course some are still delusional but it seems to me that asking prices are down almost the same 10-40% from peak levels. Buyers bidding another 20% below these already adjusted prices are experiencing overwhelming frustration at the inability to negotiate with sellers. Few are successful and most can't understand why their ultra low offers aren't being at least countered.
The recent increase in sales volume is largely in part to more reasonable sellers finding sophisticated buyers who recognize a property's value relative to the recent boom. Although I personally think we are likely to see another 5-10% decline in prices before stabilization and sideways movement for a few years after that, a psychological bottom is being explored. Anecdotal evidence is showing that aggressively well priced properties are receiving multiple bids which may indicate that we are nearing the "bottom." Just last week a buyer of mine had an offer accepted only to be gazumped by another bidder a day later. That property had languished on the market for 6 months. Once the price reached what buyer's perceived as "bargain level" (20% below the original ask and 35% below peak pricing) the sellers received 3 bids in 2 days.
So despite the fact that we have witnessed one of the most rapid price declines in housing market history, buyers must take into consideration that many sellers have finally accepted this fact and adjusted prices accordingly. That said, buyers need to do their homework and bid appropriately if they want to own a piece of the Big Apple.
http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-sellers-more-realistic-than-buyers-in-todays-manhattan-real-estate-market.html#discussion
I definitely agree with this piece. Many (not all) buyers need to realize that they are not going to "steal" the apt. of their dreams. Sellers are not just goign to throw you their keys in exchange for a dollar bill.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9913
Member since: Mar 2009
I'm selling $20 bills.
At first, I was asking $40 for them, but no one was buying. So I adjusted to the market and dropped the price by a whopping 40% to $24.
These buyers aren't being realistic: I came down 40% but they still are offering me almost 17% off my heavily discounted asking price. Therefore, I am more realistic than the buyers of these bills.
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Response by mjsalisb
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 177
Member since: Sep 2006
Thank you 30yr...
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Moronic.
A store charges prices and nobody will buy... do they yell "buyers aren't being... realistic".
Yes, I get that sellers are frustrated, but this is just stupid.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Ah, got it... its a BROKER.
Funny.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
buy now or be priced out forever!
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
There were plenty of broker morons saying "buyers aren't realistic" when prices came down 5% and they still weren't buying.
The author simply doesn't understand logic very well.
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Response by slowmdm
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Sep 2009
I think I hear the tiniest smallest violin ever.... and its playing.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Its funny.... guys like Alpo and SteveF call lousy (in terms of logic or facts) pieces "great", and then argue with guys like Noah....
well, when you don't like the facts...
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Response by dco
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
What's so hard to understand? The true price is what the seller is will to "trade" for an agreed amount the buyer is willing to part with. It's just that simple. Every transaction is different, however when collectively view they produce an over all market view. Each transaction produces a winner and a loser. It's almost never know who that winner is for years. Everyone should remember it's your money at risk, shop wisely. Truthfully I wouldn't be shopping at All. Good luck.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
Given how quickly prices came down, it's inevitable that some buyers are going to expect the trends to continue, and therefore are a bit incredulous when their lowball offers are refuted. I don't know if that time is now, but to dismiss that notion out of hand is pretty silly. In my experience, Doug's a pretty honest broker. That said, I still say if you're bidding, keep being aggressive - you only need one bite to be successful.
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Response by The_President
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
"Its funny.... guys like Alpo and SteveF call lousy (in terms of logic or facts) pieces "great", and then argue with guys like Noah...."
I'm not arguing with Noah. If you had bothored to read UD lately, you would have seen that Noah agrees with the piece:
"I largely agree with this. Just yesterday Christine Toes writes to me..."I'm seeing bidding wars left and right in the under 600K range."
"Given how quickly prices came down, it's inevitable that some buyers are going to expect the trends to continue, and therefore are a bit incredulous when their lowball offers are refuted."
Reminds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9913
Member since: Mar 2009
interesting choice of what to quote from the piece. how about this part:
"but I also see a good amount of listings that are still ridiculously overpriced with no relation to past comparable sales."
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"inds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever.
Yes, and it was the same morons both times... the bulls.
The bears aren't claiming it... its just another case of bulls being defensive and not admitting they were wrong.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"inds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever."
WOOOOOOW your logic is bad. Noah agrees with the piece about buyers not being realistic by noting evidence of bidding wars?
Alpo, you're not so smart, that conpletely contradicts the claim...
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"I don't know if that time is now, but to dismiss that notion out of hand is pretty silly"
The only folks dismissing the notion are the folks calling the bidders "unrealistic".
They are there, and they define the market. If they aren't biting, they aren't biting.
Its the brokers and unrealistic sellers who are dismissing their lowballs as unrealistic. Thats the dumb part.
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
alpie, they went up for about 11 or so years. that's not forever, but it's not even close to our one+ or two- year of declines.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
And our 6-12 months of declines here is a fraction of what our normal declines take. Post '87 took FOUR YEARS.
Assuming we bounce in 6 months is as dumb as thinking it will go up forever.
I'm selling $20 bills.
At first, I was asking $40 for them, but no one was buying. So I adjusted to the market and dropped the price by a whopping 40% to $24.
These buyers aren't being realistic: I came down 40% but they still are offering me almost 17% off my heavily discounted asking price. Therefore, I am more realistic than the buyers of these bills.
Thank you 30yr...
Moronic.
A store charges prices and nobody will buy... do they yell "buyers aren't being... realistic".
Yes, I get that sellers are frustrated, but this is just stupid.
Ah, got it... its a BROKER.
Funny.
buy now or be priced out forever!
There were plenty of broker morons saying "buyers aren't realistic" when prices came down 5% and they still weren't buying.
The author simply doesn't understand logic very well.
I think I hear the tiniest smallest violin ever.... and its playing.
Its funny.... guys like Alpo and SteveF call lousy (in terms of logic or facts) pieces "great", and then argue with guys like Noah....
well, when you don't like the facts...
What's so hard to understand? The true price is what the seller is will to "trade" for an agreed amount the buyer is willing to part with. It's just that simple. Every transaction is different, however when collectively view they produce an over all market view. Each transaction produces a winner and a loser. It's almost never know who that winner is for years. Everyone should remember it's your money at risk, shop wisely. Truthfully I wouldn't be shopping at All. Good luck.
Given how quickly prices came down, it's inevitable that some buyers are going to expect the trends to continue, and therefore are a bit incredulous when their lowball offers are refuted. I don't know if that time is now, but to dismiss that notion out of hand is pretty silly. In my experience, Doug's a pretty honest broker. That said, I still say if you're bidding, keep being aggressive - you only need one bite to be successful.
"Its funny.... guys like Alpo and SteveF call lousy (in terms of logic or facts) pieces "great", and then argue with guys like Noah...."
I'm not arguing with Noah. If you had bothored to read UD lately, you would have seen that Noah agrees with the piece:
"I largely agree with this. Just yesterday Christine Toes writes to me..."I'm seeing bidding wars left and right in the under 600K range."
http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/09/looking_at_todays_manhattan_ma.html
"Given how quickly prices came down, it's inevitable that some buyers are going to expect the trends to continue, and therefore are a bit incredulous when their lowball offers are refuted."
Reminds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever.
interesting choice of what to quote from the piece. how about this part:
"but I also see a good amount of listings that are still ridiculously overpriced with no relation to past comparable sales."
"inds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever.
Yes, and it was the same morons both times... the bulls.
The bears aren't claiming it... its just another case of bulls being defensive and not admitting they were wrong.
"inds me of 4 years ago when sellers thought prices would go up forever. The same way prices did not go up forever, prices will not go down forever."
WOOOOOOW your logic is bad. Noah agrees with the piece about buyers not being realistic by noting evidence of bidding wars?
Alpo, you're not so smart, that conpletely contradicts the claim...
"I don't know if that time is now, but to dismiss that notion out of hand is pretty silly"
The only folks dismissing the notion are the folks calling the bidders "unrealistic".
They are there, and they define the market. If they aren't biting, they aren't biting.
Its the brokers and unrealistic sellers who are dismissing their lowballs as unrealistic. Thats the dumb part.
alpie, they went up for about 11 or so years. that's not forever, but it's not even close to our one+ or two- year of declines.
And our 6-12 months of declines here is a fraction of what our normal declines take. Post '87 took FOUR YEARS.
Assuming we bounce in 6 months is as dumb as thinking it will go up forever.