My Changing Impression of Sellers

sellers who have waited for the "fall season" wont hit a lowball until theyve let the season play out a bit--test again in mid november to see if attitudes have changed

Long time horizon, stable finances and clear long-term financial plan will beat strategies involving market-timing every time. While posters identify themselves as bulls and bears and debate the RE market and talk and talk and talk, life is going on. The goal is not to die with the most money possible. It should be to prudently go about building the life we want. More important than any market is your own current financial situation.

Did I buy my first apt at the best time in 1989? No. It promptly lost 30% of its value within 18 months. But I needed a place, could afford it and loved it. When it was time to sell in 2007 because I wanted to live with someone and buy something together, I didn't know if it was the best or worst time, but I wanted to live together in a new place and not delay my life looking for peak profits. Turns out by selling in fall 2007 I timed it very well, but that was accidental. When I bought in 2008, did the market have more to fall? Yup. So what. I wanted a place we'd live in for 10, 15 or 20 years, was basically swapping assets in terms of using the money from my prior sale. I shaped my life based on what made me happy, what I could afford comfortably, and with longterm goals. I didn't live my life by consulting the DOW or Case/Schiller index or mood of seller's during open houses.

And today, as all these people debate where the market is going from the sidelines, know what I'm doing? I'm loving life in a fantastic place that we created together and are thrilled to come home to and enjoy every single day. We can afford it and it fits our plans. Could we have saved money by continuing to rent, keeping stuff in storage, continuing to study the RE market, going to open houses forever on Sundays... Sure. But why? It wasn't worth it.

All this reading tea leaves of seller "attitudes" and where the market will go I think misses the point. Confer with an independent financial advisor, have a long time horizon, know what you can comforatably afford, and stop trying to figure out how to pay the absolute least amount possible at the best possible moment. Success using the latter formula is elusive and meanwhile time slips away. What if prices fall another 5% over the next 6 months but interests rates tick up? What was the waiting for?

I'm sorry. But market timing is about the last strategy any competent financial advisor would recommend. And posts like this, about "low balls" and "attitudes" and "what's happening," make me think the whole approach of the OP is just wrong.

kylewest - well said, but watch out as all the "bears" jump on you.

The bears can jump on me all they want to (although that really isn't what I'm into). I can speak only from personal experience for whatever that is worth. I now own a great place (my second), own somewhere to go on weekends, continue to save regularly, and do not earn a fortune (or live of someone else's). I must be doing something right.

'But market timing is about the last strategy any competent financial advisor would recommend'

sorry kyle, timing is everything.

falcogold1: Well, good luck with your crystal ball and "timing." But what if you can't ever get that timing just right? You try and try and keep missing it. Meanwhile, try to perfect this impossible strategy, life ticks by. On the other hand, you can more or less ignore all that timing crap. Invest and save regularly, steadily, constantly, buy during lows/highs/mid-markets. Just keep doing it over time. Dollar-cost-avering will beat attempts to market time over the long haul. The key is to have a long term vision and a plan to fulfill it.

w67, can you please stop cursing!

.. so let them .. in a few months they'll come crawling back and you can start low-balling again ..

Carnie. I put in a 'your friend' to lessen the pain

"I'm sorry. But market timing is about the last strategy any competent financial advisor would recommend."

No. Buying high and selling low is the last strategy that any competent financial advisor would recommend.

If you can find a place that costs the same to buy as to rent out of pocket - BUY! There are some that are getting close. None is there yet. If you look at the charts the current bubble is MUCH WORSE than what happened prior to 1989. That's one reason why the first 30% has been so fast. Most properties, alas, have another 30% to go, and some have even more.

$800 psf prime West Village - 2003 prices.

KW: agree with what you've said. However, your horizons are way beyond where most people can think. You're settled in NYC, not going to have kids, etc. You don't need an exit strategy, in other words. Also, you didn't buy in '08, what you did was decide to buy in '89 and lock in for the long-term. How many of us will have the same housing needs over 20 years?

kudos to kyle---you bought a leveraged asset in 89 just in time for it to puke more like 40%--and then you rode the postion where if you'd been leveraged in stox throught the period you would have made big bux--basically the investment decisions you made in 89 were awful--your asset eventually got back above water, but your opportunity costs, while stuck in an illiquid underwater leveraged asset, were significant--bottom line had you waited several years even to buy, rented, and left your money in stox or FI you'd have significantly more money today--ill avoid emeulating that type of investment behavior, thanks

your just get on the bull train already approach sucks

buy/add in the troughs---sell/lighten in the peaks

Everyone's situation is different. But attempts to categorize all as bulls or bears casts RE into a false dichotomy. I consider myself neither. IMO, some people may wish to buy now and have that be a perfectly sound decision. Some may feel their own financial situation makes this less than an ideal time. But one size does not fit all. Blanket rules on when to buy versus rent, etc are silly. Each individual's situation has to be taken into account because in RE that one lives in there are factors beyond dollars and cents. An apartment you live in is not a stock.

And stevejhx, "buy high, sell low," is facile. It isn't realistic. There is a reason most indices beat the fund managers on Wall St. Dollar cost averaging is realistic and will get you where you need to be in the long run.

I think that buyer's remorse is very common, as is the feeling that you lost a unique opportunity when you pass on a property. I had both feelings. The idea that timing the market doesn't work is true as long as you are not in the middle of a global economic disaster which cause is rooted in housing credit. You can't tell anybody that it was smart to buy last october at 2007 when everybody knew it was a falling knife. The idea was to wait, and those who did paid less. I decided to wait longer, because I have many signals that the market will go down, and none that it will go up in the next year. Stop suffering. This is a buyer's market.

Kyle. Let me know when they invent $ cost averaging for nyc Re on a 200 to 1 leveraged basis.

The reason sellers are less likely to take a lowball offer now is because most of the fear that existed last fall during the Lehman and AIG fiasco is gone. Nobody is worried about entering a second Great Depression. Nobody is worried about standing on a soup line. We are back to business as usual. So, as a buyer, you had the most negotiation power last fall. Not now.

which is why prices were at their lowest recently. alpie, total fail.

but it might work for the stock market.

the fear is gone... just reality of falling nyc re for the next 6 years....

El P... do u play chess? well let's just say all the pieces are still on the board... little too early to be calling a winner, no?

They will take a lowball if they can't pay the mortgage. The rest are not freaking out at the moment because it looked for a while (august-september) that the market was stabilizing. Now it's starting to look like last winter again. Empty condos are not moving, rents continue shooting down. Look at Urbandigs inventory and see what is happening. 420 new listings in the last 7 days, 210 contracts in the same period, 48 price cuts.

Greedy sellers and greedy buyers deserve one another. And the buffoon with the short man complex deserves to live endlessly in his timeshare rubbing filthy Ben Franklins into his sweaty little body..

"FLMAO.. I CAN AFFORD $2.5MM"

That's middle class money w67th, you talk a much bigger game than you can actually afford.

actually, JM, that is the point. it isn't nor should it be "middle class money." for a number of years it was, but that wasn't based on income or affordability, it was based on crappy underwriting and a global bubble.

sorry if you bought too little space for the growing family, and need to trade up.

"sorry if you bought too little space for the growing family, and need to trade up."

What an idiotic statement. I have plenty of room for my family but would trade up if these 20-30% off statements actually materialized. Your so stuck on one off comps that you fail to see the big picture. Oh but I forgot! You can get a studio for $2000 on butthole lane! LMAO

"FYI, you mama wasn't complaining last nite."

I know that's a lie, she would never sleep with someone that could only afford a $2.5M apartment. Do you do your own laundry?

From the title, I thought this would be a critical review of "Dr. Strangelove".

West67th - you are being very harsh with MHillqt - someone who is in a rental studio and wants to move up to a one bedroom

Just to remind me - or I might have missed it on some previous thread - what are you renting now? And what is it that you would buy at your 2001 price point?

Noncognitivism is unattractive. That's a fact.

skinny - WTH are you talking about?

Some random thoughts of no importance.

1) oj - denial of 30% drop on $4mm+ plus units makes your mama a mother of a lying whore;
2) ph41. Funny a penthouse snot (there really is a caste system in the ph sector, ask ph41) feeling 'sorry' for a studio renter in NYC;
3) growing up, my parents travleded 1:20 minutes each way to work at their manual labor jobs while living with their three children in a 2 bdrm south Bronx 6th floor walk up that got so broken into on a regular basis my parents left the locks unlocked - so ask me if I feel sorry for a studio renter in NYC?
4) In 2005 or thereabouts, as I unloaded my residential alcove studio investments, I sold to an older lady who needed her 70 yo father to cosign a mortgage so she could 'realize' her dream of being an owner from a straight studio rental to my alcove 'home' in the same building. She kept repeating 'tax deductions' and I'll make money. My thoughts were for her monthly difference my parents wouldve communted 3 hrs each way, so I guess she must be rich or is willing to pay to be in NYC even if it was going to bankrupt her 70yo dad ;
5) I just need a warm bed, my family's health and my marriage to my wife to be happy one. All this NYC re shit is fun bc I felt like I was the only one shaking my head at these $200k/ yr banker/dog walker/ re borker/ etc buying $3mm 2 bdrms like they could 'afford' it.;
6) living in NYC is 'not a right'.
7) always remember to push back the choke on a diesel engine, especially before going ink the channel.

Wast67 - that was one helluuva rant - so, what are you renting now? And what do you want to buy at 2001 prices?

Amd I was not "feeling sorry" for that studio rentor - I really understand that- but you were being totally awful, cursing, stupid stuff.YOU were the one being an a'''hole to someone less fortunate than you.

My wife has forbidden me to rant near her to a degree. One time I said these 'goddam' smokers as these schmucks smoked near my kids and then my son said goddam smokers a few days back and I knew from my wife's face I was sleeping on the sofa that nite.

As to our living arrangements, 3bdrm rental and the cost to buy is like 4x my rental cost and my owner keeps saying you guys are rich! You should buy my unit. If he knew I was w67th. That thought just brings a happy tear to my eye, cause at the moment he loves me. I wear a pirate patch on the other one. As to what I almost bought in 2007, a H line at 1965 B'way. It was a compromise at best but my wife nesting hormones were thru the roof with 2nd child.

H line - 2 bedroom - I looked there with the daughter of a friend for a one bedroom - lord - right on broadway - busy , noisy , why wouold you have lusted after that? New garbage

I don't share your love of 1965 Bway, W67.

Posts crossed. But you ever see that George carlin skit about personal point of reference? Well, to me anyone who is an american has had it better than 99.9% of the population that has graced our little planet. Then to choose NYC, then to say manhattan then to say a 1 bdrm. Just a bit too much 'cry for me a millionaire' syndrome. I have no delusions that we on se is a bunch of pansies arguing over our $600k 1 bdrms. It's really quite silly to the rest of america much less the rest of the world. : ) gotta go. Goodnite

If I had to live in one of the "4" Lincoln Center condos (1965, 111W67, 150 Columbus or 3 Lincoln Center), I'd go for 111.

Yeah, yeah. I won the genetic lottery. Could have died at 13 from giving birth after genital mutilation somewhere in an African hut. But here we are, arguing about our insanely privileged lives.

nyc10023 - judging from your posts - I doubt you would buy at 160 west 66th - helped my friend's daughter buy there (unfortunately at the height of the market- but she's happy ) but the apartments are totally small standard layouts. some nice viewa but just really pretty standard layouts, and judging from what you seem to be looking for, I am surprised you even like this building.

w67thstreet - just to really figure this out - can you give us a SF equivalent for the 3 BR rental? We will accept the condo SF - (just reduce by at least 10%)

'But market timing is about the last strategy any competent financial advisor would recommend'

Of course, any competent financial advisor would also tell you that your home isn't an investment... and, given prices in the last few years, would have CLEARLY meant that buying made no sense vs. cost of renting.

So, if its suddenly all about competent financial advice, its a little late for that for those who bought.

W67th, your chest must hurt from banging on it all day.

Nyc10023. Howz the litter doing? Mine are driving me insane!!!!!!! But in a good way. My 3yo has a girlfriend named lauren who holds his hands each morning and my daughter is starting to notice boys and she isn't quite 6 yet. I better clean out my shotguns.

Jm. Hahahahahahahahaha. Omg thatz funny. We should start a yo mama thread. It's been awhile and no real data to smack each other around with yet.

jeez it's slow w67th isn't it? I'm making sh*t up to fight with you about.......

Yeh. It's like my favorite bar had lost all the regulars. WTF? Shrimpie? Licc? Ericho? Tech-guy? Did they all lose their jobs and move to okc?

one-off comps? BS, JM. 20-40% is everywhere, but the product sucks because it has always sucked except at the top.

pay the $10, spend a few hours in recorded sales. these aren't one-offs, they are the rule and there are a few exceptions, and the exceptions seem to be random, not based necessarily on quality.

there are a ton of comps. we only report the ones that actually have comps available, where there is a reasonable certainty that the units are at least the same configuration, etc. that limits the reporting available to we mere mortals. but nan reported in another thread that she's using somewhere between 2004-05 as her comp guideline. and she's, obviously, a broker.

Kylewest...your posts are great..insightful and true to heart....W67thstreet.....you are obviously a person who has no respect for others and your posts are VILE.....who cares what you make or what you can afford....you sound like a drunk.......i dont think your parents would be proud of how you post......and im sure they were hardworking good people....

w67th - my eldest is a bluestocking. No interest whatsoever in boys, she wants very badly to go to an all girls' school. 2nd is a very volatile creature. 3rd will be arriving shortly - 3rd of 3 girls.

ph41: the millenium buildings are not the top of my list, but like I said, if I had to buy one (say my partner was really into the service and the location is great for us), I would go for the Reebok building (111, not 160).

BTW, ph, my "dream" abode in Murray Hill would be Sniffen Court (not the ones right next to 36th). An estate came up for sale last year, and closed at 4.8m, pretty close to ask. No garden, but roofdeck, 39.5' wide, very, very pretty.

NYC10023- Did you ever see the detached white house, set back from the street behind a real front garden?
Can't remember if it's 35th or 37th street. Think it was originally owned by George Gallup (of the Gallup poll). It is really magical.

Yeah, while the white house is pretty - I think Sniffen Court beats it, esp. if you get a wide one not at the street end. Pomander Walk on the UWS is not as nice or well-built. The other "mews-y" houses I like are on the UES - Henderson Place. Practicalities reign here though, and moving out of the 70s would require a lot of re-jigging in our family routine. If my kids end up going to private school on the UES, I'd look more seriously at the Henderson houses.

i thought sniffen court was the one next to 36th...is there another?

It's sort of amazing - the horses (and coachmen) lived better then than most people live now

this is a late rebuttle...
With respect to timing....
I don't have to get my timing perfect just, in the vacinity.
If I took your advice I'd of bought in 2007 when both my piggy bank and my profession were ready.
I herd a lot about the 'can't time the market' bullshit, long horizon bullshit, even my mother saying things like 'I never owned a piece of RE that didn't pay me for owning it' or "shit or get off the pot". I don't think my mother ever considered the possiblity of doing both...
I look at the delta from 2007 to today...I don't have the kind of energy it takes to keep kicking myself in the ass they way EVERYONE who bought that year is doing ALL DAY TODAY.

Timing is everything, young Skywalker, everything.
That piece of advice is free.

Falco- for someone like you, who is as obsessed with real estate as the rest of us, I am surprised you're not an SE "insider" - tracking prices to back up all your assertions about the market.

where did falco say he's not an insider?

AR - on the thread about 210 East 73rd, where everybody was wondering about the sale price in 2004, Falco made comments, but did not post the price (I did) so I assume that he isn't paying the $10 (and I asked that question on that thread)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/466826-coop-210-east-73rd-street-upper-east-side-new-york

given the info he frequently provides, i'm fairly certain he's an insider. although i didn't even become one until a few months ago. like AH i'm cheap and i wasn't actively looking so i didn't pay. but i decided to show my support for SE. would have been wiser to remain cheap, comp roaming is addictive for me.

AR - same with Alanhart and Rhino86. And Falco usually posts on recorded price AFTER someone else has listed it on a thread. But, I could be wrong.

why pay for the insider when there's ACRIS.

And frankly, if someone is pontificating on real estate prices in NY (whether up,down, or sideways) the $10/month at least lets them put their money where their mouth is.

I prefer ACRIS to SE - been using that and pshark for many years. Pshark is good for listing all the names besides each unit, so you can have another screen up in ACRIS and search by name. I am pretty good at digging up prices, and it's useful for mtge info & seller/buyer ID.

ph, who cares? i don't mean to be snide, but i have no opinion regarding what it means that someone is unwilling to fork over $10 a month. for many people who are looking it wouldn't much matter, because it's not so easy to use the info, and they rely on other info to give themselves a general sense. i'd hope that anyone would take the time and make the effort to determine some comps before actually making an offer, but some may be a couple of years away from that(i.e., rhino). not everyone is sitting on a hefty bankroll just waiting to strike. streakeasy, acris is superior but i like the ease of SE.

But PropertyShark recently got smart- now you have to subscribe for the names beside each unit (and THAT I am so far too cheap to do).

SE is good for easily following the property listing history, then closing, Though I do find they miss some of the closings. Now that PropertyShark is making it more difficult, I guess I will have to start using ACRIS more.

The insider is SO much more user-friendly

AR- if comps are that important to people who continue to point to them on SE to make their arguments, then they should be willing to pay for the information which is making them seem so "godly". You pay, right?

And if that's being snide - so be it.

And to be REALLY snide- if someone can't afford the $10/mo for the info, they're lightyears away from being able to buy.

Not snide! I pay, and agree that there's no free lunch. I think SE is one of the best things to happen to the industry, and that's coming from someone who has access to a large firm's proprietary listing database.

ph - dangerous to make assumptions about what people can afford based upon what they spend $ on. I ain't paying $10 for an SE insider account. I like traipsing through ACRIS. Just went through most of the records for Sniffen Court props. Looks like 9 (or 7-9) was the biggest.

wow, and for such a trivial thing. maybe they're saving their pennies for the closing costs. maybe they're just, like me, cheap. maybe they're not looking to buy but have an interest in where a property traded at.

AR - how about giving up 2 Starbucks a month, or one $12 martini, or glass of wine? That's how you REALLY save your pennies, and most people won't do the "little" things that really do add up over a month!

AND 10023- okay, YOU like traipsing through ACRIS, which until fairly recently, wasn't easy to do for coops, and is still much harder than dealing with SE or PropertyShark. Some of us like the easier way, and, since I make my own coffee every morning, I pay SE what I would otherwise be wasting on Starbucks.

a lot of people have given up many cups of starbucks. and other things.

AR - sure- try to ask some people looking to buy how they're trying to save on the little things (and I mean ask a live person that you know).

There was an interesting article in the NYTimes a while back about this very subject- young(er) people who managed to buy. And they did it by "saving their pennies" - packing their lunch, going out with friends to places that served free snacks with their drinks, or by forgoing meeting those friends in places that would cost money, and doing other things instead. And they felt it was worthwhile - and I bet those are the same people who WOULD have sprung for the $10 SE, because it is a really good source of information, and pretty easy to use.

Please, possibly because the purchase price of real estate in this city is so high most people think saving on the little things won't help.

have you met matt?

ph41,
thank you again for your on going concern for my well being. It's been awhile since I've had this much attention from one poster. A crush is a hard thing to live with especially when the love is not reciprocal. For the record, I'm married and a stright guy. I don't know your sex but for sure, from what you write...you are a dick so, our future together has little promise. Keep up the good work and in the future, if I am a little harsh with you it's not because I want you to like me.

stalkers make me nervous...

falco- if you call my comments "stalking" you must truly be schizophrenic, or have a really inflated sense of your own importance. (My goodness- you are such a sensitive soul - don't like being called cheap)

PH41: way, way too much personal shit.

CC - It's going both ways - don't get on my case, get on him as well.

you don't get the rhythm here at all. would strongly urge more reading, less writing. its clear that you don't understand.

Oh please - I "get the rhythm".

I read as lot of the posts, and don't write much at all. I do understand when I am being gratuitously insulted, for absolutely no reason other than I asked if Falco paid his $10 to be an "insider".

oh well...i tried.

ok. I'm gonna start an "in" thread.. but only us coolies can hang there.... until you get a personal invite (ph41) pls stay off the cool senior lunch corner... thank you.

BTW... i save money by using the "withdrawal" method... it saves latex plants and stops filling up the landfills... so I feel free to spend money on $5 coffees which i invariably I throw out half full....

Will I hear some really good 4 part harmony as I walk past ?(W67, CC, falco and AR)

I cant carry a toon... really... on the level of Elaine dancing... can't carry a tune...

Okay- invite Alanhart into the group, and you stand in front and lipsynch.

stick to bragging about the penthouse.

In love outta love love? Just frenemies? Se posters passing in the nite?

Oh Columbia, forgot to mention ar and ph41 made nice/friends on a late nite thread. Ph41 is actually in the 'in' crowd. On the level of the rich kid whose not too uncool and she pays for the lung kind of friend ; ) (ph41)

All the talk about Sniffen Ct, etc got me thinking about how I'd really like to own in one of those alleys or mews. I can't find a *single one* on StreetEasy. Any tips? Or, does anyone know a broker that specializes in these listings? Particular in the Village / West Village.

is ph41 CarolSt?
read the above thread?
Did I mention this sad excuse for a homunculus even once?
If anything I'm relieved. w67 has had a groupie for some time and me....nothing.
Now there is someone obsessed with me.
The best part is that they (ph41) are easy target for a snaper head like me..
Now I have a new piñata. Can't wait to see what spills out of this one's head.
I'll bet you a dollar this one ends just like CarolSt........candy spilling out for everyone.

falco, you do recall the wolves reference, no?

w67th, quit trying to get me off the fence. i'm finding my inner peace.

I do my dear I do...............................HOWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO(at the moon)

Trying to decide if I should get drunk before my red eye or just poke w67th with a stick. AR, any great $2000 rentals today?

jm, get drunk AND poke w67th with a stick. no great $2000 rentals, but a couple of the new buildings (hudson yards, that columbus park thing), are offering one beds at $2500 (including concessions), brand new buildings with plenty o'amenities although not, i'll concede, in neighborhoods we'd likely prefer.

but it's just the beginning. have a fantabuloso flight. may the gods of turbulence ignore your flight.

"but the product sucks because it has always sucked except at the top."

I disagree.

ooo, an argument. can we set time parameters? cause i think compared to buying elsewhere it has sucked for years. earlier, i might agree.

Define "sucked" - IMO, the product in NYC sucks for condition. There are never many apts/houses in great, truly move-in (i.e. minor cosmetic fixes only) condition in B+ to A+ locations. I put that down to the "coffin" out scenario, esp. on the UWS and the long periods that many apts/buildings spent as rentals.