True Gotham - Manhattan to decline another 10%

actually, it is very bullish compared to the Deutsche Bank report.

Credibility Alert:

"All of this said, I think it is very fair to say that the deep and rapid price decline that happened over the last 18 months has slowed. Activity for me and all of my colleagues has definitely picked up as ******sellers have accepted market conditions***** and some buyers feel that now is the time to grab their piece of the Bog Apple. "

30yrs,
To be fair it's broker hype but, not totally over the top and, relativly consistant with SE closings of the last few weeks. We could be left with a simple confidence game. I'm suprised at some of the recorded closing prices for some of my saved properties. Needless to say, as a buyer, it could never get armagedeon enough for my taste. Good properties are closing with better to fair pricing (on a case by case basis). I even see some close at above ask which leads me to believe that they have attracted multiple buyers. It's not a gold rush but, seemingly...an active mine. On the other hand this is bob for apples season, would hate to get one with a razor blade. (no doubt urban legand)

oh falco, bubble bubble toil and trouble.

I don't want to out him because i can't be sure if his remarks were made "for attribution" (he can calim credit if he feels like it), but a VERY well respected broker and market pundit told me VERY recently hew thinks the biggest problem in the immediate future is that sellers have been given an unrealistic idea of how well the market is doing and what he is personally seeing is a LOT of "reasonable" offers from buyers not ev en being countered by sellers, with the brokers snobbishly saying that "the buyers are going to have to get more realistic" about the current market. Except that this is happening enough to indicate it's the sellers who still have NOT come to grips with where the market is.

I guess it could be either one, but I can say for certain that in the rest of the country THE TOTAL REASON for increased market volume is much lower prices.

And a prediction: many sellers will end up selling for less than these offers they are currently getting from these "unrealistic" buyers.

Hi 30yrs:

You are so right. I’m a buyer that’s been looking for more than a year and what you say is exactly what I see. Let me tell you about my experiences.

First I’m looking in the upper middle or lower upper segment (d0n’t know what to call it) of the market where maybe the sellers aren’t so motivated to aggressively or realistically lower prices.

Case #1. Made an offer almost a year ago and was told that I was way too low and better move up and that there were offers much higher that had been rejected. I thought that something wasn’t making sense when the broker put me in direct contact with the seller who also tried to talk me up. I followed the listing through a couple of price drops sometimes they take the apt off the market for a few weeks to make it look like a new listing but we have se for that. About six months ago the broker calls and says that they’re accepting final best offers and that they had to be submitted that week and of course my previous offer was way bellow other bids. Obviously, I ignored it and funny thing, the apt is still unsold and the current asked price is now equal to my last offer. No longer interested.

Case # 2. Last month made an offer about 20% less that asked price on apt that has been on the market about three months. I expected that we would meet somewhere in the middle and that it would sell for about 10% less that asked. The seller came down 3% and then just stopped, saying that they have other offers. I don’t see the apt in contract and by the time the asked price is down to my offer will I be interested?

Say hello to your pundit friend for me.

The "Buyers are unrealistic" vs. "Sellers are unrealistic" debate is fun, but I think it misses the underlying reality.

Most sellers fit into one of two categories: those who are committed to sell to the highest bidder within a reasonable period of time, and those who are anchored to a minimum price. It's not really a matter of being realistic or unrealistic. It's not even a matter of needing or not needing to sell; distressed sellers may require a specific price much more profoundly than their undistressed counterparts. The goals are simply different.

Buyers generally cluster into two categories as well - those who have firmly decided to buy and just want to get the best possible fit for the best possible price within a specific time frame, and those who will only buy if they can achieve specific parameters.

Of course, the goals and outlook of individual buyers and sellers can shift over time, but I don't encounter many market participants on either side (including brokers) who flat-out don't "get it".

out damned spot--this market's hot!!!

fire burn and cauldron bubble, while you while away and miss the bull train!!!

W81...I largely agree with your characterization of buyer's needs and seller's needs and the fact that there are two (at least) very distinct types of each. What makes the debate critical is the dterminatino of their relative sizes.

Should the folks looking to sell within a time frame become a larger group than the buyers within a time frame, well the market goes down. That will eventually force the hand of the distressed sellers (or their banks and/or co-op boards if applicable) to move on price.

Of course the opposite is true. If the "I want it now" group of buyers outnumbers the 'within a time frame' sellers, the market rises and the distressed are bailed out (or find jobs and go back to life as it was).

The job market is signaling the first scenario. The stock market the latter. Place your bets.

Saw the same thing when I was apt shopping in Miami. At one point, brokers would host fabulous parties and beautiful women in short skirts with a clipboard in one hand and a glass of champagne in the other would circulate and just accept checks( I assume for the apts) all night. Now the only brokers that are in business in Miami are the ones that learned to game the banking system and set up short sales and complex mortgage financing with local banks.

I know distressed sellers are firm in their prices now........ just as they were in Miami. Then months later you would see the apt in foreclosure. Of course the markets are not the same. But the economy is distressed -- on a global level-- so there are bound to be some confluence of circumstances.

Even on this thread we are seeing buildings going down -- the Sheffield 57, Renwick, One John(?), more(?) Are these anomalies or the beginning of a domino effect that occurred in the exact same stages in Miami, Vegas, Arizona? It would only take one major residential company to go down to start the dominos teetering. What if Extell went down? Who knows if they can withstand their serious hit in Miami and then come thru in NY. If the Rushmore goes under, the dominos would shake every single UWS building. Of course this is just speculation but who on this thread can assure everyone that every major residential company is whole and will be untouched by the looming commercial credit crunch? Sellers would be wise to research bubble busts in other markets. They all experienced the same warning signs. And I believe it always started with sellers who turned down reasonable bids in a weakening market. My friend in Vegas turned down a 9 million bid (they wanted 10). They took it off the market last year at 4 million ask after 2 yrs of zero interest. You really think it couldn't happen here?

ieb I totally agree with you as that has been my same experiance...I have been looking for a little less then a year and had similar type of situations happen

> actually, it is very bullish compared to the Deutsche Bank report

LOL.

10% down after 25% declines is now considered "bullish".

MAN have times changed.

Hey, has anyone noticed? Times are changing so rapidly these days, it's uncanny:

nyc10022
about 3 weeks ago
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> Hmm. A real estate agent says "The Buyers are Back!" because she sold one apartment

Yeah, even in 2008, a broker had to sell two apartments before they could make that claim. How times have changed, even for the shills...

nyc10022
about 7 weeks ago
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Wow, have times changed. I just got an e-mail from a colleague offering an UES studio for $1500.

nyc10022
about 7 weeks ago
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$4100 for a 2/2 with a dining room!

my, my, have times changed.

poor 'ol bitter bjw...

sad.

Bitter? Just poking a little fun is all. No need to get defensive.

from the guy who just got defensive....

roftl....

thanks for the afternoon laugh.

"Most sellers fit into one of two categories: those who are committed to sell to the highest bidder within a reasonable period of time, and those who are anchored to a minimum price. It's not really a matter of being realistic or unrealistic. It's not even a matter of needing or not needing to sell; distressed sellers may require a specific price much more profoundly than their undistressed counterparts. The goals are simply different."

While i agree with this on general principles, there's still a fly in the ointment: when sellers are working with bad information (or not so bad information which they misinterpret into bad information). Even distressed sellers can become unrealistic (just ask mimi about what's going on with Harlem townhouses right now).