What impact will WS bonuses have on the spring market?

since bonuses will be down significantly all the bears say that means RE will crash 50%

lets just put it this way if Goldman gives out big bonuses they are done!

It will have no effect because unemployment will be still over 10% and the pool of bonus recipients has dwindled. And chances are, they already own a place, are not willing to buy in a falling market and/or are unable to sell their existing place.

The spring market will increase 50% from peak prices. This entire discussion is foolish -- obviously all things will eventually recover and all assets are going to be doubles or triples -- What else could possibly happen here.....

I have to run, Mrs. Stepford is on the phone....

Bonuses will be more in stock than cash going forward. You can't buy an apt with stock.

I agree: white elephants like Rushmore will be more up the creek than ever.

infriggincredible goldman and jp had the nuts to show such amazing profits, all based on their ability to boorw gobs of taxpayer money essentially for free--then they did really smart stuf like buy teresuries leveraged 25:1 and of course much hiogher yielding assets as well--shocked they didnt mark their book to show small gain or even a small loss--arrogant is an understatement

the much smaller number of bankers who will share this record bonus pool already own their real estate and will likely stay put--a few trophies may trade but this wont do shit for the overall market

double lakefront estates in vegas will be up another yearly 250% for a total compounded 2 years gain of nearly 600%--if only i was as smart as petri dish

manhattanfox, say hello to mrs. stepford for me. lovely lady.

tempo, 303 east 33rd, georgica, etc., etc., etc.

banks made record profits this year. they are only concerned with covering that up and playing down the outrageous bonuses they would like to now pay out. modern is right, there will be a big percentage paid in options for this reason. but, many would argue it's not a bad time to buy and i would not be surprised at all if nyc home sales increase in Q1 2010, when the rich get richer, one way or another.

"lets just put it this way if Goldman gives out big bonuses they are done!"

No they won't. Goldman paid back their TARP money. The govt. has absolutely no say in their pay strcuture from this point forward.

the fed discount that is still available to them?

and for the last time, banking has traditionally been a highly regulated area. banking is a critical industry. you may not like what the gov't does, or you may, but they certainly can do it.

If any effect, it may help the hamptons a little bit. Conecticut surely.
The NYC 500K to 4mil market? Don't think so. How much did the '08 bonuses help? ;)

I will be buying up a storm, that's for sure!

Hmmmmnnnn ... what % of these bonusgetters are homeless now I wonder . . . sure, some are renters, and some will trade up but overall I wouldn't think it will take that many units out of the supply on a net basis

The real debate is this. How MANY folks will get nice bonuses relative to years past. In the FWIW department. Think about this. Just 8 short months ago, Major panic regarding WS bonuses. Goldman gave slightly smaller bonuses with a huge chunk in stock. Those stock awards were struck at approx $91 per share. Stock is currently trading 188 or so. JPM, same situation, their stock awards were struck at approx $19 per share. Stock is currently trading approx $47. Yeh, yeh, you can't use stock for down payments, Coop boards don't care, the awards havn't vested yet. BUT, to some degree, at least a few knuckleheads, will be feeling a touch flusher and put some dough to work in RE. It may make some folks a bit more comfortable liquidating other investments to buy RE. There is a fair amount of folks in the world who actively do rotational investing. Lets just play a game. Heavy investing in US Treasuries in 2006, 2007, rolled into high yield in most of 2008, and heavy in non dollar stocks, Brazil, China and some U.S. Well guess what? You torched it during this time period. Would it make sense to take some profits and buy your dream apt? I think so. Wouldn't surprise me to see after 18-24 months of dismal volume in the 3-6mm apt space see a significant pick up in activity between now and Mar '10 in this segment. Is it enough to put a major dent in supply, not really, but certainly enough to be noticed. Oh, and by the way. This is not an opinion, I know several folks doing this as I type.

I don't think they will be buying the harlem brownstones i am looking at...

if the WS bonuses are high, then the RE Prices will go up. If they are low, then the RE Prices will not go down.

patient09 . . . any plans to change your screen name to something with a "'10" in it when the clock strikes midnight on 12/31 or do you think by then you'll have gone to contract on that fabulous apartment we're all chasing . .

p09, but that only affects a very small part of the market. in the past 8 years that would have been enough to get everybody all sweaty with priced out fear and buy, buy, buy. now you are only seeing that, and even there at lower prices, in the first time buyer market, because they have credit available. in the middle market, because of no credit, people aren't going to need as much sweat control.

i know a bunch of people at MS and elsewhere who are not anticipating these types of bonuses. we've further concentrated the wealth factor into fewer numbers of people.

I'm thinking,,,,,,
patient09maybe10butstillnotsure

AR: I agree, I was just putting my thoughts down relative to the OP. In short, more volume in that price range, but no enough to damage inventory or have a large impact on prices

lololol . . . you bond guys crack me up . . . reminds me of what pamela apparently said about tommy lee's pen.. . oh, never mind, this is a family board.

lp, my daughter doesn't read it but my dog does. and the dog is highly sensitive (what did pamela say? spill).

yes, 09, some will pick up that sweet 7 you have your eye on, but not enough fishermen for the fish in the sea.

Those richy rich wall street dudes and duddettes will buy up all the residential RE there is in town driving up the costs and eliminating any chance for a bargin. They will also come for you children and cook them in a giant soup of vitality. they drink the soup and live forever which convinces them to buy more RE b/c of their immortality which makes RE a good long term investment.

Hello Williamsburg!

Classic 9 soup Nazi?

re: tommy & pamela . . . can't find the link here (I think I read it on Bberg today and their internal stories don't always search well on the 'web) but apparently he at least has "Pamela" tattooed to his appendage, and she has said that . . . well, suffice say it is reminiscent of this joke . . . http://www.ebaumsworld.com/jokes/read/915164/ . . .

pamela supposedly kept the bronze replica of his unit that tommy lee gave her...

This post is obviously a rhetorical question. Anyone who actually believes that the massive wealth re-creation of 2009 wont boost local real estate prices is doomed to live in a studio rental forever.

snortastical. chuck klosterman wrote a hilarious piece in which he argued that pam was the sexual icon for our times.

"since bonuses will be down significantly all the bears say that means RE will crash 50%"

I'm not sure how you come up with this considering several players have already announced they will be giving record bonuses.

marcs, there are plenty of people who will live in two bedroom rentals forever. you're limited in your analysis.

and what wealth recreation? liquidity, yes. and wealth to a few who are mostly already wealthy and mostly have been able to buy during this bubble for the ages, and to a few who are not so sure that they will have access to free money forevs so they may not be so rambunctious in this post-disaster world. in this case it's their money, after all, that's at risk. not the taxpayers'.

modern, i love a good tale of business success.

i can understand the famous plaster caster. but pity the poor tattoo artist. not enough money in the world........