The bonus money is going to blow your mind.

Thank God! Tax revenue for NYC and NYS. whew!

> ...FAR GREATER...

Far greater than the year they're pointing out was horrible.

Wow, you really know how to polish a turd!

Maybe some cash-flush Goldman person can pay me a huge premium for my place, so I can take on another "down to the studs" renovation.

Yes Goldman's employees are getting huge bonuses but everyone else on wall street is getting far less:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125590465939393067.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_business

Coupled with rising unemployment and RE prices are headed back down.

Only takes one. I guess I'd better make the rounds of the brokers and have my place be a "whisper" listing.

I should hope the banks left get some big bonuses, because 7 of them have to get what 10 people got last year... the other 3 are gone.

Ain't that ironic?

If Goldman gives big bonuses watch how quick they can shut down. We have a poll going in our office. If they give a big bonus short the stock fast!

r u blowing for a living ericho?

Can I get that to blow a different part of my body?

"If Goldman gives big bonuses watch how quick they can shut down. We have a poll going in our office. If they give a big bonus short the stock fast!"

Can I get in on that? What's the outside number? I'll take that plus one day.

Flmao. Like I said id be worried about physical harm if my bonus was gignormous at Goldman. I am sure someone will start a tour bus of the top executives of Goldman and start spray painting of thier homes with their bonus numbers in neon pink.

Different monies are looked at differently. To this day their is this golddiggerish person in my extended family and if it was up to me, id forgo the money for rather than deal with the 'shame.'

outside number is 75

ok, so I take 76

was it McHale, or was it Himwhoknows, who was posting links to the various stages of how the recession would unfold? If I remember the link material, one of the stages was social unrest with potential upheavals of parties or forms of government (esp in developing nations). Too sleepy to try and dig it up.

Stuff like this makes me wonder if it could happen here if the concentration of wealth in this country became too extreme.

Mish also had a piece this week on this topic which summed up a lot of the outrageousness of this (apologies if already posted):

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/where-hell-is-outrage.html

Where is the outrage?????

I just read somewhere that the "backlash" to this stuff takes years. The legal changes could be years from now.

Glass Steagall came out in '33, years after the crash and years after folks began the serious complaining.

nyc10022, bonuses are back, prices are moving higher and you still rent. Why didn't you buy during the frozen zone of 08-09? Please we would all like an explanation. Why didn't you buy then when it was the perfect storm?

> prices are moving higher

SteveF, you said it last year, you were wrong. You said it this year, you were wrong.
When are you going to get that we all think you're an idiot?

We all get the stats, apparently you don't... so why do you keep talking?

And, again, I bought the investment that went UP (and dramatically).

Unlike you, I made the right move.

Thanks for asking.

Gawker has started something called the Goldman Project, where they try to out the people getting bonuses. That's as close as you're going to get in terms of class warfare....maybe a bus tour.

So are we socialists or capitalists?
Maybe our country should worry more about producing valuable products rather than pointing fingers.

Peoople who get big bonuses also pay BIG taxes..remember that!

This country is definitely going SOCIALIST!!!

Sometimes I think people are just jealous and wish they worked for Goldman...wouldn't that be great getting those bonuses!

The real crime here that the media isn't discussing is that the banks wouldn't be making this much money and therefore paying out a bonus pool of this size if the fed funds rate was higher (ie not basically zero). Really pisses me off that my tax dollars are effectively being used for free to pay out bonuses. It blows my mind that the WSJ or the Times haven't discussed this.

Correction, our tax dollars are already lost and spent, into a deficit abyss.
Our future generation's tax dollars, are being used to pay for the government/fed's actions, debates on who is to blame, healthcare reform, etc.

It piss me off that:
Instead of tackling the root cause (insurmountable debt, no new products of value), we allow politicians to find other scapegoats like Madoff, Wall Street and other people that are easy to blame. It makes us feel better in the short run while the big problems get bigger.

Isn't our government basically running a much bigger, much worse ponzi scheme that has to inevitably end with them stealing from all of us and future generations either covertly (inflation) or directly (taxation)?

erichoooooooo....hows this one workin out so far..BoA on the tape right now cutting cash payout to 15%.

And I'll add a duraflame....

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/wall-street-bonuses-won-t-save-the-luxury-market-experts-like-jonathan-miller-and-company-johnson-associates-say

"Isn't our government basically running a much bigger, much worse ponzi scheme that has to inevitably end with them stealing from all of us and future generations either covertly (inflation) or directly (taxation)?"

can you put that on a t-shirt?

big bonus = big expensive apartments...does this change the real estate market in manhattan?

Am I sleeping at the switch or are you guys reading something I am not. BofA just anounnced that anyone making any dough that matters will be getting 5-15% in cash, the rest in deferred stock. GS, similar, JPM similar. I think the coffers in Albany will be much worse than anyone expected because of the concentration in deferred stock arrangements.

look when the original post is from

"GS, similar"

Hadn't heard that patient09, I think we will know more next week.

The mother of all ponzis, glamma.

hadn't heard that about GS / JPM. also, will be interesting to see what hte vesting schedule is on the stock component. i've heard from the very draconian 3 year vest / 5 year hold to much more lenient vesting schedules.

either way though, even if cash component is larger than expected at other banks, from what i'm hearing, people aren't aggressively looking to deploy cash into real estate. most people i talk to tend to have a much more conservative view, and are looking to put cash in a safe place for a rainy day.

I think the bulls are starting to realize that the money isnt gonna be there and that all is lost now

Don't leave out the clawbacks, either...

Oh, and also, goldman partners are required to hold 75% or more of their stock... until *retirement*.

"Don't leave out the clawbacks, either..."

Yes, REALLY worried about these. What did they get from AIG? $5M? Yawn.

Ah, juice, I know you hate facts and logic and everything, but if you think the clawback clauses are the same thing at work in the AIG case (where they tried to come up with that after the fact)... then...

once again..

you have no idea what you're talking about.

glamma, a t-shirt works. but needlepoint, on a very large floor pillow, might be nice also.

So enlighten me swe, do you think claw backs have teeth with individuals or are you referring to something such as the Obama train wreck announced this morning?

"where they tried to come up with that after the fact"

Isn't that the definition of claw back? If they plan for it, wouldn't it be then called a claw forward?

"Isn't that the definition of claw back? If they plan for it, wouldn't it be then called a claw forward?"

Juice, juice. Are you as confused as usual, or just playing slow? You really can't tell the difference between the timing of enforcement and the timing of the agreement (or lack thereof).

poor, poor, juice.

maybe steve will take the time to explain it all to you.

Juicy is just mad because the big bonus $$ is not coming to save his real estate bubble.

bubble? what bubble? manhattan re is fine, there will be no crash. right, juice?

"You really can't tell the difference between the timing of enforcement and the timing of the agreement (or lack thereof)."

No, I have no idea what you are talking about. If you would like to be specific, now is the time, or you can just continue to talk in generalities (as usual). Is there an article or something that refers to this claw back of yours? I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I just haven't seen it.

"Juicy is just mad because the big bonus $$ is not coming to save his real estate bubble."

marco, please. I already got my big fat bonus and could care less about the bubble. Who the hell are you anyway? Another disciple of the clueless?

"bubble? what bubble? manhattan re is fine, there will be no crash. right, juice?"

Yes EddieWilson, we are all pitching tents in Central Park just as your predicted.

This is where nyc10022 disappears. He hates it when asked to be specific.

And JuiceMan, if you were Steve, this is where you'd be calling his name every half-hour, praying for a response.

Some are getting tense again. Very, very tense.
Calm down, everyone.

"And JuiceMan, if you were Steve, this is where you'd be calling his name every half-hour, praying for a response."

Still waiting for somewhereelse's article about clawbacks.

hmmmmmmmmm

Wow, sad Juice, really. Sorry I can't spend my every wakingm minute on the board. I went out, saw a movie, had dinner. Actually had to do some work. Just getting back to the board now.

Sorry I can't spend every waking minute correcting you. ;-)

> No, I have no idea what you are talking about.

I'm not surprised.

> If you would like to be specific, now is the time, or you can just continue to talk in generalities
> (as usual).

Sure, I'll slow it down for you

scenario 1.... You agree to a clawback provision in your contract. The triggering event happens some time in the future, claw back is enforced.

scenario 2.... You don't agree to a clawback provision in your contract. Something happens, folks get pissed, and the government tries to create a clawback program after the fact.

> we are all pitching tents in Central Park just as your predicted.

Wow, I really did predict this. I said before the crash that when the crash happened, the folks who said "THERE WILL BE NO CRASH" would start saying "well, we crashed horribly instead of rediculously, so I was right".

I was so right... this is funny.

Sorry, juice, but thats a a strawman. And a lousy one at that. I never said it... in fact, I said the opposite.

But, hey, I know you don't like facts or logic...

> Some are getting tense again. Very, very tense.
> Calm down, everyone.

Well, some folks are sensitive about their losses...

erichoooooooooo steveffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

"Cutting pay at Goldman"

"Goldman Sachs has always prided itself on leading the investment-banking pack in terms of compensation. Because it’s richer and more successful than anybody else, it can pay more than anybody else can afford, forcing them to spend money that would be better used elsewhere on bonuses. That in turn improves its competitive position. It’s a bit like the US-Russia arms race during the cold war.

But now Goldman has done a stunning U-turn, putting aside exactly $0 for compensation in the fourth quarter, and bringing its compensation ratio for the year down to an all-time low of 36%."

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/01/21/cutting-pay-at-goldman/

Is this how Lloyd Blankfein goes about doing "God's Work"? By stiffing his employees? That just blows my mind....

http://www.businessinsider.com/lloyd-blankfein-says-he-is-doing-gods-work-2009-11

"erichoooooooooo steveffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff"

So funny. This is exactly what I was thinking as I was clicking through to this thread.

I think there should be a 'last' in the op thread. Flmao.

Maybe ericho meant "blow your mind" as in low....

(tee, hee)

I think you guys are looking at this all wrong. ericho was actually pretty close on the title. I mean, until the last two words he pretty much had it nailed.

So really this might be one of his best threads ever. Because I ask you, when was the last time the ho' posted anything that was 7/9ths correct? Never, you say? Exactly. I rest my case.

lol, well done sideline...

and this thread is just killing me today. How about of this bonus money?

this one just keeps on giving

one more time

sls, hilarious.

> ...FAR GREATER...

it was in all caps, so how could it have turned out to not be true?

interesting correlation...bonuses between 2004-2005 and RE: prices between 2004-2005

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a comparison of
bonuses paid by Wall Street firms to their New York City
employees. In 2009, bonuses rose 16.7 percent to $20.3 billion,
an average of $123,850 per employee, according to New York
State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.
The bonus pool is estimated based on personal income tax
collections and other factors.
*T
========================================================
Wall St. Percent Avg. Wall St. Percent
Year Bonus (US$b) Change Bonus Change
========================================================
2009 $20.3 16.7% $123,850 24.8%
2008 $17.4 -47.3% $99,200 -44.2%
2007 $33.0 -3.8% $177,830 -7.1%
2006 $34.3 34.0% $191,360 27.7%
2005 $25.6 37.6% $149,800 32.0%
========================================================
Wall St. Percent Avg. Wall St. Percent
Year Bonus (US$b) Change Bonus Change
========================================================
2004 $18.6 17.7% $113,450 13.5%
2003 $15.8 61.2% $99,930 64.1%
2002 $9.8 -24.6% $60,900 -17.9%
2001 $13.0 -33.3% $74,140 -26.3%
2000 $19.5 44.4% $100,530 34.0%
1999 $13.5 48.4% $75,020 41.4%
1998 $9.1 -18.8% $53,040 -21.8%
1997 $11.2 14.3% $67,800 6.2%
1996 $9.8 58.1% $63,870 54.2%
1995 $6.2 26.5% $41,410 28.6%
1994 $4.9 -15.5% $32,190 -18.8%
1993 $5.8 18.4% $39,660 9.6%
1992 $4.9 19.5% $36,200 16.4%
1991 $4.1 95.2% $31,100 100.1%
1990 $2.1 10.5% $15,540 17.2%
1989 $1.9 -5.0% $13,260 -0.2%
1988 $2.0 -21.1% $13,290 -14.9%
========================================================
Wall St. Percent Avg. Wall St. Percent
Year Bonus (US$b) Change Bonus Change
========================================================
1987 $2.6 18.2% $15,610 10.6%
1986 $2.2 15.8% $14,120 1.1%
1985 $1.9 44.8% $13,970 36.0%
========================================================

i love this thread

"Good news for New York state tax coffers: Wall Street bonuses surged 17% in 2009 and topped $20 billion."
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-bonuses-surge-17-top-20-billion-2010-2

But: "New York Sales Tax Receipts In Unprecedented Collapse"
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-sales-tax-receipts-hit-unprecedented-lows-2010-2

17% up off a horrible year...

its 33% less than 2007! whoops...

p10, thank you. Great data series.

- I am surprised to see that 2009 was the 4th highest year ever (maybe 6th highest in constant dollars)
- Admittedly it's 40% below the top 2 years, but more in nominal $ and only ~15% less in constant $ than in 2000. It RAINED money in 2000, so a number anywhere close to that is real $
- 2005-07 (with warm-up in 2004) pumped a LOT of air into that RE balloon. Something tells me that not all of it has come out yet

well, something did blow...

2010 bonuses will be well below 2009.

Why do you think so NYC10013?

Q1 is off to a quieter start than Q4 and Q3 ending last year...little mark up of legacy positions, less bond underwriting, Capital markets quiet in general.

aboutready toilet

Every banker I know expects the bonus pool to be significantly lower in 2010 vs 2009. Positions were marked up 30-60% which won't repeat (if anything positions will be flat to down). 2009 was a record year for high yield which won't repeat. My guess is the pool will be down 20-30% if not more.

And this is before any potential regulations take hold...

> It RAINED money in 2000, so a number anywhere close to that is real $

Of course, anywhere close to 2000 apartment prices is, what, a 50% decline from here?

This is bad (or at least VERY inconsistent) logic.

The problem with these "well, its still the fourth highest ever" rationalizations misses out that prices factored in bonus levels literally 70% higher than the current!

If you're fine with high but not *that* high bonuses, are you fine with high but not *that* high prices? You cool with a 40% declines from here? (if prices match the bonus falloff)

yeah..nice one

"Sorry New Yorkers, Here's Why This Year's Surging Bonuses Won't Do Much For Real Estate"

"My anecdotal feedback is that compensation seems to be about 70% restricted stock and 30% cash. And institutions like UBS are reportedly paying out half of the cash compensation now and half in 6 months."

http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-new-yorkers-heres-why-this-years-surging-bonuses-wont-do-much-for-real-estate-2010-3

wow, so if we are having this nice wave of activity with so little actual cash going into bankers' accounts, imagine what happens when the restricted stock starts vesting....

also, the boutique firms and hedge funds pay out cash, for the most part.

just imagine....3-5 years from now.. also many hedge funds stll havent hit the high water mark so that money is gone.whatever happens for the next couple months is it till next year. this "wave" isnt even close to being whats needed to support prices at current levels given the growing supply

"wow, so if we are having this nice wave of activity with so little actual cash going into bankers' accounts, imagine what happens when the restricted stock starts vesting...."

So, printer just push out his "RE will go up" predictions 3-5 years. Maybe he's finally getting something right!

30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 4 months ago
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"If Goldman gives big bonuses watch how quick they can shut down. We have a poll going in our office. If they give a big bonus short the stock fast!"

Can I get in on that? What's the outside number? I'll take that plus one day.

samadams
about 4 months ago
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outside number is 75

30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 4 months ago
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ok, so I take 76

---------------------------------------------------------

So what number are we at?

Good catch 30yrs. LOL.
I don't think RE is going up or up much except this really short term, but but what a bunch of jealous idiots. Some people here should have had my 10th grade math teach who told us early that life isn't fair, then they wouldn't sit home all day waiting for fairness, doinging nothing.
How about the guy thinking there would be violence against Goldman. LOL

Nice article on Barron's this weekend on High End vacation homes coming back in full force. All that bonus money is going to hit this market over the next 3-5 months.

You mean the article that is subtitled: "Prices of luxury real estate are finally starting to rise, as bargain hunters swoop in. Some of the best deals are in second homes with prices off as much as 40%."

Great moments in 'life is not fair'
1) a flunky german guard as he is leading a family of Jews to the gas chamber and as the 5yo girl is crying. Littel girl 'life is not fair'
2) as a blk 14yo, as he is strung up to be hanged for a false accusation of making a pass on a white lady, kkk says 'life is not fair'
3) as a full time mechanic and part time ob/gyn walks away from a bleeding and dying 17yo raped by her dad, 'life is not fair'

one of my most hated stmts, a fee notches below 'if you gotta ask the price... '
fwiw. I had a English teacher in 5th grade, who was most definitely more enlightened than your 10th grade math teacher.

She said, 'life is not fair, but you can make it fairer'. She went on to explain, it is usually said by the 'creator' of the unfairness or someone who feels powerless to change the situation, and thereby ends up being a flunkie 10th grade math teacher.

Wow ericho, barron's is delivered to LIC, no f'king way!!!?

No. Ericho's fish was wrapped in Barron's.

"Life is not fair" and "If you gotta ask the price ..." are very bad, but worse are "It could have been worse" and "Maybe it just wasn't meant to be".

> All that bonus money is going to hit this market over the next 3-5 months.

Wow, talk about spin. "all that" applied to a number down by a THIRD, and now even less in cash.

I love it.... still have the bulls trying any deceit they can manage.

bank on it!

this was a great ericho call, too.

A toast to the bonuses

http://www.yankeesoda.co.uk/images/kool%20aid%20man.jpg

Thank You.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/02/real_estate/Manhattan_market_prices/index.htm

I made this post 5 months back.
Over the past 2 quarters, prices and volume have GONE up!!!

Now, suck on that!

*big pat* on my own back.

Job will done.

Poor bears.
They'll have to wait for another crisis.

You can bank on that. We'll have another. Maybe another decade.
Just ask AboutReady who sold at 2004 thinking she was slick.

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Homebuyers have flocked back to Manhattan after sitting on the sidelines for much of last year, according to three reports issued Friday. The demand has helped stabilize prices in the nation's most expensive large market.

"Sales are back in a big way," said Greg Heym, an economist who prepares a market report for two of New York's big brokers."

Read that story.
Sales are BACK bitches!

"Prices are firming, however, according to Corcoran CEO Pam Liebman. "We had bidding wars on 190 properties this quarter," she said, indicating that low prices bring out buyers."

Bidding war?????
The HORROR!!!

Actually, prices went DOWN the quarter numbers after you said it.

And, lets not forget...the TITLE OF YOUR THREAD!

So PAINFULLY wrong.

Dude, you crack me up!

Are you dumb or pure ignorant?

When are bonuses paid out????

God help you.