CHBUYER said "There is definitely more buyers looking. I am curious to know why people on this board would think prices in Manhattan will go down (other than due to higher interest rates).

6 months ago, the fall was gonna be awesome

and it has been....August too.

How else can the market fall?

It isn't enough for there to be more buyers (though one anecdotal pc.. of information is hardly enough to go on anyway), you have ot know what are they looking for and what are they willing to offer?

- credit availability is no better.
- Jobs are probably worse (McKinsey just went through a round of layoffs and I know of one major investment bank is doing another).
- Taxes will be going up (taxes on gold-plated plans, possible VAT, real estate taxes, sales tax, a tax on the goldplated health plans prevalent among the rich in this city, etc).
- Rents continue to drop (don't argue this with me, I am in the market now for a 2BR and I see it every day).

Perhaps you are right and more buyers are coming out. But saying that means prices will go up sounds like a bad NYT headline "Prices decrease despite increased interest from buyers". Sound like the same flawed logic as "Crime rates drop despite highest jail populations".

Some people just refuse to see the logic if it interferes with their world view.

Let it go, Steve. When you start quoting a first time poster to backup your consistently wrong predictions, I'd say you are officially out of bullets. You would be better served spending your time lobbying for an extension of the home buyer credit. It is the only thing that is going to provide any stability to your business in the short run.

I'm all for getting a good bargain but NYC might not be the kind of place that anyone would want to live if real estate values and the corresponding city infrastructure that is supported by real estate taxes (i.e. police, fire, transportation, education,etc) declines in the way that some people on this forum seem to eagerly anticipate.

In your dreams, SteveF, in your dreams.

I hope I'm wrong, but we'll come back in the spring and see who's right. Time will tell.

The fundamentals don't support your prediction, in my opinion. Unemployment rates are going to continue to go up, consumer confidence is down. This holiday shopping season is going to be bleak.

That doesn't mean buyers shouldn't buy apartments now. The fallacy is to think you can see the bottom of the market coming, when you can't. And everyone needs a place to live. Getting the deal of the century is a foolish and greedy ambition, and greed has not been rewarded by this economy of late. Getting a good deal is good enough for the wise, experienced, profitable investor.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

slgslc, revenues are down just about everywhere. cuts are being made in services all across this big nation of ours. and it's not just because of declining real estate revenue, it's declining income and sales taxes as well.

slgslc - You miss the point. A lot of people wanted to live here also in the NY of the 80's and 90's. In fact, from all the bich'n and moaning about change you hear I would say a lot of people preferred the NY that had a bit more flavour. One of the reasons I am not looking to live in the W. 70's. The wife, who never lived in the city, also says she doesn't like the vibe. Too "clean". Too "non-NY".

"I am curious to know why people on this board would think prices in Manhattan will go down (other than due to higher interest rates)."

The combination of unemployment and the rental market. Particularly the rental market. Sales cannot stabilize until the rental market does. Sales still haven't caught up (or down) to the rental market.
And the rental market looks like it may still go down.

I am an all cash buyer and couldn't be more confident about renewing my current apt rental. And if I buy in 6 months, I know it will be with pleasure that I pay the 6 months left on my lease.
That's how skewed the rental to sales market is right now.

"When you start quoting a first time poster to backup your consistently wrong predictions, I'd say you are officially out of bullets."

ROTFL.

Well done.

SteveF is a moron.

"You would be better served spending your time lobbying for an extension of the home buyer credit."

Ha. You're on a roll...

It is kind of sad, actually, that someone who is familiar with these boards is also so far gone in denial that they will accept the anecdotes of a strange poster.

Also, mmmmm... is anybody forgetting the fact that rents continue to fall so that the out-of-whack ratio of rent vs. own continues to favor renting, even more heavily than at the height of the bubble, and that we have only undone 1/4 of a triple increase over 10 years that was, in great part, totally baseless. Not to mention the oversupply of hundreds of new developments that are either stalled, empty, in downright limbo or going for auction, or the fact that bid-on-the-city has now weekly auctions (mostly overpriced and not selling, true) and etc, etc. My take is that even in good economic times, once the bubble bursts it would have been difficult to re-inflate it. These period is particularly interesting because it couples a horrid economic picture with the enormous efforts at re-inflating housing on the part of the gov. Uphill, though. Just my $0.02

the rent to sales ratio is not out of whack. Duh, factor in tax reductions(30% bracket) and principal paydown and you are cashflow positive. take a 500k studio w10% down, that rents for 2000 per month. Do the math please!....

and that 2k per month is on the way low end. let's try 2,200.

NYC condo/coop prices go lower from here - I just got even more short the DOW too.
The reason is bank underwriting and unemployment. Show me one time in history where NYC unemployment was above 10% and prices went up.

PS I'll even admit that I now have only a 5% position in cash. 70% of my non-real estate portfolio is short the DOW. The rest is long natural gas and short oil.

"It is kind of sad, actually, that someone who is familiar with these boards is also so far gone in denial that they will accept the anecdotes of a strange poster."

Lol. Morons pointing at other morons as proof.

"the rent to sales ratio is not out of whack. Duh, factor in tax reductions(30% bracket) and principal paydown and you are cashflow positive. take a 500k studio w10% down, that rents for 2000 per month. Do the math please!...."

I love it... moron forgets about maintenance!

> and that 2k per month is on the way low end. let's try 2,200

Not to mention being wrong here.

Try getting studios at $1500 these days in manhattan. You can get one bedrooms under $2k now.

Moron.

""I am curious to know why people on this board would think prices in Manhattan will go down (other than due to higher interest rates).""

I haven't noticed anyone mention increased taxes yet (which are almost a certainty at this point). While we don't know which taxes will get increased, I don't know which one's WOULDN'T place downward pressure on prices (especially if we saw a big jump in RE Taxes).

And which are almost a given at this point... NYS is completely out of $$$.

As long as the "jobless recovery" is in effect (and there's no end in sight), prices at the high end will have to come down.