Williamsburg priced well at > $700/sqft

i just accepted counter offer from developer in new building in prime N w'burg at 597/sq ft.

Which building?

A lot of the closings at Mason Fisk were in the 500/sq ft range.

70 berry same developer

checked out mason fisk closings and average was around 617/sq ft.

wannabuy - which floor?

2

been looking in w'burg for awhile and wanted to see a number of things happen before i bought.
on the macroeconomic level i wanted to see unemployment hit 10+% as i think this will be how high it goes. the most negative comments about unemployment are coming from the government. this makes sense as the they are trying to surprise on the upside. i also wanted to see this stock market rally continue after earnings season has ended. it certainly has done that and looks to go much higher. market sentiment remains very bearish though and this will also fuel the rally.

been going to open houses in w'burg and they are all busy. many of the other buildings are of inferior quality, no great nabes and yet are higher than this condo.

i think this developer prices his product correctly and is therefore able to sell his buildings out pretty quickly. i very much like the corcoran brokers as well. direct and to the point with none of the annoying broker lingo.

$500sf seems to be a realistic price for areas outside of manhattan..developers that price their condos right are selling i a lot of the closings that have happened in lic are happening at that number as well $500 sf I feel bad for the people that went into contrace at $800 sf

well, nina15, that is lovely thought....but...there is plenty of evidence that that is not yet "realistic", much as you or i might want it to be reality...

jim you think $500 sf is still too high? maybe you are right but people seem to be willing to buy at those numbers from what I have noticed on SE that seems to be where most of the fringe areas are closing in sure it could still go down more who knows

nina..my point is the opposite...find me something in a williamsburg condo at that price?..edge and nsp are way way above that...and even other places not at that level, so far as i know...

Nina - good for you. Way to make a decisive move with very good timing.

Jim - the latest recorded sale at NSP was an 1133 sq ft two bedroom - 25B - that went for $655K. That's $578 sq/ft for a high floor and two br two bath. All you doomsdayer's are missing the train and have been since March. THE TRAIN HAS LEFT THE STATION!

This neighborhood is hitting very near bottom. There is tremendous upside over the next 5-10 years here given the proximity to Manhattan, the energy of the neighborhood, the contractual obligations of the big developers, and importantly the tremendous values.

almost the bottom when the bulk of the inventory has yet to hit the market and unemployment is still rising. yeah we're almost there. lol

its the contractual obligations of the big developers that gonna throw some of them into default. example 1. Stuy town.

Anyone have data on what the price per sq/ft people are getting at 125 N. 10th street. I was there for Sunday's open house. Very nice but they are all priced around $800 per sq ft.

Mad -- you come across as kooky.

You are cherry picking data, aren't you? Well, everyone on SE does that, so I, jimstreeteasy, forgive you.

But, oops, I can't forgive more incomprehensible non-sense sentences like:

"This neighborhood is hitting very near bottom. There is tremendous upside over the next 5-10 years here given the proximity to Manhattan, the energy of the neighborhood, the contractual obligations of the big developers, and importantly the tremendous values."

My comments are:

- wtf logical value derives from the k obligations of the developers?

- do you not see that saying a place has upside because there are great values is a tautology?

Mad, by the way, substantively, you may well be right about values, but my comment is that your arguments do not support your assertions.

"the bulk of the inventory has yet to hit the market and unemployment is still rising"

marco, I think you're right about the second part, but the first? The bulk of inventory has yet to hit the market? Where? The Edge and NSP 1 and 2 are all out there, which make up (I believe) roughly half of the inventory in the area. What major inventory is still to come? Don't tell me Domino. The inventory glut is real but it's already here.

yes it appears the bulk of the inventory is out there. i wouldn't expect all those boarded up empty lots to see buildings for quite some time. my friend at apts and lofts says he is very busy. just check out the open houses and talk to those who are going. they are quite busy and these people are looking to buy. at just under $600/ sq ft I have taken the plunge. i was hoping for $500/ sq ft and it does exist out there but in sub par buildings in east w'burg.

maybe i'm missing something here. the edge phase one is to have 575 units. 30 units are off the market, 35 currently listed. how is that all on the market?

aboutready, for whatever reason, the Edge only lists a small sample of the available units on their site (which feeds into StreetEasy), but anyone active in the Williamsburg market knows they can bid on any of the units. I wouldn't go by SE numbers here (they list total Williamsburg inventory at ~650 after all).

wannabuy, I'm interested in the same building .. but am worried about waiting a long time to get to 50% sold before being able to close. Did you get a sense from the broker the sales activity for the building.. Whether they would be able to hit that mark? I guess the developer being more flexible definitely helps.

Been looking for the past yr in the same hood, and seen most everything (except mason fisk, which I missed the boat on.)

almost all the buildings do that. we still don't count the units as inventory until they hit the market. "shadow" inventory is not a new concept.

obviously it is easier in williamsburg to guesstimate true total inventory than in manhattan, but it would still be just a guesstimate.

aboutready, I think that a case could be made that prices are being held up by shadow inventory when the release of future units is not well known by the general buying public. With the Edge and NSP, EVERYONE in Williamsburg is aware of these buildings, so there's a much better grasp on the inventory situation, whether it's technically "shadow" or not. This has impacted prices for quite a while already. The point is, where is this "bulk" of inventory that's yet to hit here? I don't see it.

"$500sf seems to be a realistic price for areas outside of manhattan..developers that price their condos right are selling i a lot of the closings that have happened in lic are happening at that number as well $500 sf I feel bad for the people that went into contrace at $800 sf"

Agreed... especially when there is a lot in Manhattan in the 700s, and some 600s. The fringe neighborhoods, I wouldn't be surprised to see 200s soon...

I just moved into the neighborhood - seems like quite a few developments are proceeding. Even the derelict 1-story garages between Roebling & Havemeyer are being re-roofed - what's up with that?

Vis: I actually just stumbled upon this building by accident. was in w'burg looking at open houses and saw the brokers in the doorway. it wasn't an official open house and they had some scheduled showings but they were very amenable to showing the units. as far as i know i am the only accepted offer. i am comfortable with that as this developer knows how to move units. check out 69 berry and 72 berry, both his buildings. they moved very fast. all 3 buildings are as nice as 125 n10, the edge, nsp and 80 metropolitan but much cheaper. i like the fact it is only 38 units, 18 more units to go before we hit 50%!

69 and 70 Berry - same developer
72 berry----- different developer

JMGJAG is right. Different developers.
Finished in 72Berry > 70Berry

Wannabuy,

You are #1 out of 38? Wow. I knew your name was indicative of your mentality, but whoa. I hope it works out for you, as I clearly do not have the brass balls you do.

just take a look at this blog and others pertinent to Williamsburg? Clearly there is interest. Arguably intense interest.

Jim - you are funny. Congratulations on your use of a word I was not familiar with - "tautology". That is very sophisticated and impressive. You are a formidable scholar.

Everyone else....if you are considering a purchase in Williamsburg, especially with Toll Brothers at NSP or Edge, I highly recommend you move in for the kill - but stick it to em on the purchase price!

Good luck to all and don't be bedazzled by all the fancy semantics Einstein's like Jimbo use..stick to the facts and the simple math.

FYI - I'm "kooky" because I'm bullish, especially on this blog. BE KOOKY! BE BULLISH! With all due respect, timing and luck are among the universal elements of success - in anything - much less real estate investing in NYC! If ever there was a good time to take a chance it is right now!

Finally in response to Jimbo;
- logical value derived from developers contractual obligations to develop the east river water front is assumed. These develperes were granted the "tax abatement" in part due to their community obligations (aside from medium income housing) That matters for future property values by virtually any economic standard.
- I suppose saying anything about anything could be spun as "tautologous" in certain discussions, including this one. But that's irrelevant so long as people know where I stand: "Buy now in Williamsburg!" and "Stick it to em on purchase price!"

Thank you Mad. You may be right about prices (I really don't have a strong view), which would make legions of the bears on this site wrong.

positive: this isn't the first time i was #1 in a new condo. my first purchase, way back in 1987, was in a new condo on downing st in the west village. "fortune rewards the brave" or so i hope this time.

"The brave". Exactly. I'm too much of a numbers guy, so I tend to over analyze a little. My personal issues with 17% unemployment and my ability to speak to people who move large chunks of credit make me pause.

One of those Crain's articles I'm sure the perma-bear Crain's link junkies would have posted anyway, right?

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100209/FREE/100209871

I'm stunned at Warehouse 11 having 60+ units in contract already. The other buildings? Much less so, as they've been on the market longer and are all of higher quality, IMHO. I don't know in detail what's going on everywhere, but it seems like the slowest activity is on the waterfront - other developers are actively negotiating and able to sell.

I was just dealing w/ 80 Met as recently as yesterday. i found the sales team to be completely arrogant and unhelpful. They arent offering much in concessions and arent budging much on price either so maybe they are doing some business. I doubt that will last, but who knows.

marco- your experience seems to be the norm over there, which makes this statement from the Crain's article:
"The 114-unit, loft-like condo, 80 Metropolitan, developed by Steiner NYC, announced Tuesday that 50% of its units are in contract or sold, with 11 signings in the past 60 days alone. "
..nearly impossible to believe

I was very close to a contract signing in WB yesterday after a week of negotiating. Buyer had to back out for a personal crisis at the last minute, but I can say there is a healthy amount of competition for desirable units.

Was actually involved in two bidding wars there, lost both, cool heads prevailed (;

marco_m I think I talked to you once or twice? look into our rebate model,getting up to 67% of commission back at closing certainly adds value. You are right, many listing agents/developers do not lower the price just because you are unrepresented.

Keith (Broker)
http://nycrentrant.blogspot.com/

I think 70 Berry has 22 contracts out of 38.

70 Berry is (was..has it slowed?) selling well at 600-650 psf. W11 is selling out fast (moxie..the contract numbers are real; there is a google group they are on; the bailed out of se because of the idiots like nyc2009) at 550-600 psf. And sales continue stalled at the more expensive units in 125 n 10th, and 80 met, and ok at nsp, and very little at The Edge. Personally, i think that both 70 berry and w11 are benefitting from the unrealistic pricing at the larger buildings. One wonders how long some developers can keep pricing at above market clearing prices. It's the same story with some new dev in manhattan that haven't lowered prices to a market clearing level. I suspect by midyear...something will have to give; either a volume uptick or more discounts, but who knows.

Well that is more than understandable. I hope they all help each other out. It seems to be quite the soap opera. In fact maybe we can pitch it as a reality show "W11".

I too cannot understand why developers or their financiers would prefer to sit on empty buildings rather than just give into economic realities of supply and demmand. Especially when it seems like there is no huge economic turnaround right around the corner. When interest rates go up it will knock those who are on the buying fence, right off the fence.

As for Whorehouse 11, I really just can't understand how anyone in their right mind would enter into an agreement with these dubious characters, especially since the buyers seem to be the last people that could afford to lose money. ie they seem to be buyers that have just barely enough money to afford to buy.

It's priced well for the current market, and has few bs amenities. The main issue I have with it is construction quality is not the highest grade, particularly in terms of units walls (the minimum was done) and ceilings (no foam under the floors as was done at 70 berry and 125, for example)..but it doesn't seem to bother a lot of people so for them that is fine. However, one could worry that there are othe construction quality issues that are not sso evident (I've been told that many of he smaller developers in wmburg cut corners a lot...and that the whole hood is known for that by people in the industry). Also, perhaps trucks on 11th st effect the front side of the building, and buses run frequently on union avenue for those near that. The rear of the building faces probably two or three years of construction projects, which isn't fun but tolerable for many.

Its going to be interesting when the glut of mediocre-quality new construction becomes the glut of mediocre-quality 5-10 year old housing stock. The lower quality stuff really starts to show its problems after a few years, when the "new car smell" has worn off.

Imagine what resales of these things now dingy and starting to crack are going to be like?

It all depends on how the buildings manage their reserves and handle repairs. I think the "poor quality" of new construction is a bit exaggerated at times - older buildings have their share of problems. The difference is, established co-ops that are well-equipped to manage problems and repairs can navigate these waters with a fair amount of experience under their belt. Newer buildings have to prepare themselves accordingly. Otherwise, you're right, it could get ugly.

Somewhere...is it accurate to call most new constr "mediocre". I don't know. I would have thought that new dev designed for sale at 1300psf and above (typical manhattan new dev prices) would be decent quality..but i dont know.

bjw, I think you're right that maint. can prevent buildings looking crappy.

However, poor betw/ unit walls, and inadequate ceiling sound insulation are a lasting, serious problem (for many people). I know someone who moved into The Mill and found to her horror that she could hear those above walking around (apparently , I am told that building is known for the lousy renovations done, tthe very minimum). What was done in your building for ceilings/walls?. In well built buildings they highlight the quality of walls/ceilings , (see 70 berry marketing materials)

"Somewhere...is it accurate to call most new constr "mediocre". I don't know. I would have thought that new dev designed for sale at 1300psf and above (typical manhattan new dev prices) would be decent quality..but i dont know."

jim, I didn't mean to infer that *all* new construction is low quality... you just noted that some buildings in particular were low quality, and I'm wondering how that is going to play out after a few years.

I'm sure some buildings were built better, but I have a funny feeling that a good chunk of the WB stock, given it was going after a different market segment in a hot market, might have taken some shortcuts. And many of those things I've seen suffer - say bad flooring, noise, cheap cabinetry, etc. - aren't easily fixable.

jim, pretty much anything can be addressed - it just becomes a question of cost - but you're right in wanting to avoid buildings where some of these problems are obvious from the get-go. The Mill is a conversion, so I'm not too surprised with your anecdote. Surprisingly, in my building, there wasn't much highlighting of the insulation, but I tested it and found no real issues. I've literally never heard a peep from either of my neighbors through the walls nor the guys upstairs through the ceiling, save for their dog occasionally barking (which you can barely hear, it sounds muffled and distant, as it should be with proper insulation).

"And many of those things I've seen suffer - say bad flooring, noise, cheap cabinetry, etc. - aren't easily fixable."

Re-insulating walls is costly and quite invasive (ie: you'd have to find accommodations while it's being worked on) but flooring and especially cabinetry are really not as huge a deal. On top of that, those are individual apartment issues and therefore much easier to sort out logistically rather than have to go through the condo board.

Williamsburg is about the worst RE investment you could make. You would probably have more upside for your money if you bought in Detroit (and I am a bull for NY RE)

I have looked into this. Fixing sound porous walls and ceilings is about 25-30psf, and you usually lose three or four inches of space in the room...Doable, for sure, but not cheap. But apparently it works very well. You don't usually have to "fix" closet space or bathrooms or kitchens. It is much cheaper for the developer to do it right when they build the place.

Kitchen cabinets or floors are something to fix to your own taste if you wish..but not as serious as hearing a tv through the wall. At w11 i heard two iphones playing music at full volume through the wall....which was a combined volume probably less than most tvs.

jim, that's terrifying. Imagine a piano or screaming. I'm still shaking my head at the supposed 60+ contracts there.

WideStance, do you have a cousin living on Pitt St?

I think the people going into the building are underestimating the sound issue between walls personally, but as I say, if it bothers them, well, it can be fixed ! And the prices are good for this market and the location good. And they are pricing it to sell out asap so little risk of being in an empty buidling. That said, I don't know what to think of the latest news about the capital one case.

jim, certainly seems fishy, especially on the timing. Capital One must have known they were selling again, but they wait until the building announces 50% in contract to drop this? Granted some of it is due to the judge ruling's timing, but something seems off here. If anything, it justifies several people's fears about the development. There's nothing remotely special enough about it to warrant dealing with all this.

If the finances don't halt development then at some point it's a non-issue really, and no one will care in the future that the the developer had disputes with the lender. If people like the building, I don't think it's nuts at all.

buying at w11 is like roulette--high risk-hopefully high reward
if you sign a contract here you better appreciate that there is risk and be able to quantify it
it's more that just poor noise insulation and membranes-- the players are dirty and who knows what they will do to make it work out right for themselves. i can't see it worth the risk for a first time home buyer who can barely scrape together the $ to buy.