What do you think? Will the residential sale market stablize, drop more, or inch up in 2010?

somewhereelse - so, there is no hope for those of us trying?

LIC has some excess inventory, but not a tremendous amount like Williamsburg, and the public improvements are happening. None of the planned improvements have been cancelled or delayed.

sd: i personally think there is a huge opportunity; you need to understand what you're up against and meet the real need. on the one hand, having most of your peer group viewed as lying scum puts you in a tough position out of the gate; on the other hand, if you can really supply a service and differentiate yourself, you don't need to worry about the competition.

look at how much exposure you've already gotten here vs. the youtube views.

If brokers were good real estate investors would they still be brokers?

> somewhereelse - so, there is no hope for those of us trying?

As I said earlier, there was....before the damage was done. But, too little, too late. Becoming "reformed" when it conveniently happens to be the time it profits you... disingenuous.

Its like becoming a "reformed" criminal right after they catch you...

> LIC has some excess inventory, but not a tremendous amount like Williamsburg,

Relative to demand, its likely worse than WB. WB is at least a real neighborhood already, with critical mass. LIC isn't really.

columbiacounty - appreciate your helpful feedback. "meet the real need"
somewhereelse - appreciate your brutal honesty; I obviously know we are seen as pond scum and some are, but rarely does someone have the balls to say it to my face/our faces (repeatedly ;)

Have a good night guys.

Like I said, the best brokers in the biz (or those I consider the "best") don't even attempt and have never attempted to the best of my knowledge to say where the market is going or what people should do with respect to RE. They are simply excellent salespeople with excellent product knowledge (what product is selling for, nature of product, etc.), great interpersonal skills, detail-oriented, etc. As I said, they'd probably excel selling coal to Newcastle.

1 more -
nyc10023 - appreciate your helpful info as well in your post above. Night.

And being well-groomed and attractively dressed doesn't hurt.

BTW, congrats on your move to Corcoran, stephanied.

LOL....Stephanie is FUNNY! Her brokers are all busy, busy, busy! So BUY BUY BUY! Buy now or be priced out forever...

To answer the question, although i've not run the numbers in some time, I suspect NYC would have to fall quite a bit more to revert to a mean appreciation over a statistically valid period of time.

Not only is she funny, but they are **specialists** in rentals AND sales.

Mean reversion? Bah. NYC is getting better and better at an increasing rate.

Oh, I forgot Rhino: "It's different here". I heard that in Miami in 2006, too.

"We're taking the next couple of years to rent and figure out what we want to do long term." Smart people.

The Rhino86 comments about the incongruence of selling real estate when you could invest, and otherwise dismissing all brokers, are sad and pathetic.

While witnessing the hazing of stephanie by the louder people on streeteasy may be entertaining, I hope that we can move beyond the name calling. For those who are not involved, it's just painful to watch.

I would gladly have ten more stephanie types: engaging, open, thoughtful, and yes bringing a perspective of someone who does this for a living and ten less rhino86 types. Most NYers enjoy a spirited debate, but mean is sometimes just mean, and it makes many people less willing to participate.

Blah blah brokers suck and this particular one was exposed as writing some ridiculously bad stuff. Now as others have mentioned she is repentent in a weak market. If its painful to watch, change the channel.

I don't want to change the channel. I like the channel. I want your show to get cancelled. You've become the Lou Dobbs of streeteasy.

Agreed! Cancel the show.

rhino86: I am not saying you are everything that's wrong with streeteasy.

I am saying that the "always attack the broker because they are a broker" drivel is just that. Tired. By the way, I've been posting here for years, I just post when I have some factual info that might be useful, or help someone who has a question, not just run my mouth on every topic that's posted.

hugh_g_not: They are sales people. In this case, even with a warning label. We all understand how they are compensated. They don't sing the same song, they don't share identical personality traits any more than any other other profession.

They sell. Their conflict of interest is exactly what makes their perspective useful. It's because they have an interest. Many of us are capable of understanding that and considering it. If you're not capable, why don't you just ignore anyone on this board with a professional interest?

Rhino86 - you give a bad name to Rhinos. Seriously, grow up. And yes, you do have insightful info to add, but then you just take it too far and attack with no real basis for the venom. And yes, I am one of these streeteasy readers on the sidelines, but now I am saying something.

rvargas, amen. You said a lot of what I've been trying to articulate. Some of these attacks are just sad - if you get your kicks bashing brokers and comparing them to "criminals" (somewhereelse amazingly sinking to even lower lows), it must be pretty hard to look at yourself in the mirror. Can we move on? stephanied actually started a decent thread here.

Is this how discussions work on here? This is despicable. I was just looking for info on the market and instead I get a slam fest on what appears to be a good agent trying to reach out and be open in an industry that generally is not.

Shame on you. I will be going elsewhere.

I am amazed at the prevailing tenor of the posts responding to Stephanied: angst, vitriol, bile with just a dash of sardonic wit! How cowardly some of you are, misogynistic, crass, and downright rude. I no longer work in the field, but when I did, my happiest days were spent under the tutelage of Stephanie who managed the sales/rental force with humor, great market knowledge, uncanny insights, respect for agents and clients/customers, and an unwavering desire to find 'HOME' for those who needed one. The thread of barbs I have slogged through here reflect a great deal of frustration at conditions that few foresaw and many have since rued. What I haven't seen is any discussion of what constitutes HOME. It is a lifeless banter devoid of the truly substantive questions, which Stephanie has been truly capable of answering when her services were needed. She worked impossible hours and never wavered from her cheerful demeanor. As a result, her positive support helped others to shine. She has great integrity as a Human Being and is an ARTIST (please don't play on the obvious distortion) at whatever she does. I have no vested interest here as I have resumed my performing career, but as a mature person who has experienced the vicissitudes of life and had several survival jobs("I have lived, Mrs. Burnside, I have lived!"), I recognize quality. I have just placed my co-op in NJ on the market because it is the right time for ME to sell. If Stephanie had a NJ license, she would be my Broker! I wish you all well and encourage Civility and Compassion in all your communications!

bye

Just because a broker makes money on transactions doesn't cause a conflict of interest. YOU have decided that the market is going down from here like it came down off the mountain on a set of tablets. It's one thing to have an opinion, it's another to decide that every else who's opinion is different than yours is evil. there are PLENTY of people who believe HONESTLY that the market is going up (me not being one of them). Is it a broker's job to convince people who WANT to buy in this market not to, and if they try to help people buy now of their own free will it HAS to be a conflict of interest? I honestly don't think you know what conflict of interest is.

I'll put up my set of posts of the last months that I have been a member here up against ANYONE'S on this site as far as giving not only honest opinions, but adding real info that it seemed no one else here knew, and readers wanted to find out. Is that a conflict of interest too?

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

Its not an issue of accurate predictions. Its an issue that a broker wants to do deals, whether or not the buyer/seller is making a sound decision under the prevailing market conditions. They push deals. To deny that is silly. Sure you give honest opinions. In an idea world, you'd tell your seller they need to raise their price, or your buyer to lower it. I dont think most of your peers do that.

A sound decision for one can seem reckless to another. I get a kick out of the vociferous bears who feel a need to jump into the ambulance with lights and sirens blaring to the scene of another real estate tragedy. Some do it with humor and humility but others are plainly disturbed by the sight or even the mere mention of a contract. They're like cops on bicycles riding around the park with furrowed brow and a hand on their Tazer. So many people to protect.

Thats a fair point. Maybe we exist to be the Batmen to the real estate Jokers. Is it more of a problem that the bears are alarmist, or is it more a problem that there are brokers writing emails to real estate virgins to buy now or be priced out forever... I dunno. I think we've seen in the last year that bad real estate purchases can be pretty damaging. Before this board, was their really a countervailing balance to the bad brokers out there?

Brokers don't make markets. They weren't holding buyers' feet to the fire, forcing them to buy.

Wow a lot of frustration and anger out there. Ok- well I have known stephanied personally and professionally for a number of years. There is no question that she is a true professional and a person of unqualified integrity. Correct me if I'm wrong and at the risk of sounding like a cold -hearted business person but she is in sales and her job is to create sales and increase the bottom line. Her sales productivity/performance is partnered with responsibility, consideration and respect for her client. And she is good at what she does. She is merely doing her job-a job that she loves. Sure the economy is in the tank but if you looking to blame someone---behind the curtain you will find greedy mortgage bankers and investment bankers and lax government. Oh and let's not forget ACORN and the cost of the wars. BUT NOT ALL MORTGAGE BANKERS AND INVESTMENT BANKERS ARE BAD! So my bottom line is let's lighten up on stephanied bashing. She is but a business professional who is competently doing her job in a tough economy which unfortunately has been the result of wreckless decisions by only a minority(%) of the corporate world.

"Correct me if I'm wrong and at the risk of sounding like a cold -hearted business person but she is in sales and her job is to create sales and increase the bottom line."

You are exactly right.

"Her sales productivity/performance is partnered with responsibility, consideration and respect for her client"

"Calling all virgins" is not consistent with this respectful business conduct.

Looks like Steph has called in the Calvary.

The countervailing balance to bad brokers has always been people with gray matter between their ears. I hear a lot of claims about what brokers did to "force" unwitting buyers into making bad purchases, but whn i actually look at examples of what these things are, I think to myself "ok, that's the stupidest thing I've ever fucking heard, who would fall for that bullshit?". My point being that the "innocent" dupes of the dastardly brokers, for the most part, weren't duped by the brokers. Think of the average intelligence level of brokers and tell me that they really have the ability to trick, fool, etc. reasonably intelligent buyers with jobs in finance, law, etc. into buying with statements that only a 3 year old would believe?

The buyers bought because they wanted in on the gold rush, not because the brokers convinced them to buy. It's like almost any con - it depends on the greed of the mark (the old "you can not cheat an honest man"). I look at broker's websites every day an laugh at how ludicrous their "marketing" BS is. Inventing as many pithy new acronyms as possible, even if they are oxymoronic. If buyers jump head first into the market, they shouldn't cry that "Rain Man" made them do it. If a buyer can't see that an alcove studio in a 60's building isn't 1100 SF, I'm not so sure they don't deserve what they get. One of the oldest axioms in the con game (supposedly originated with P.T. Barnum) is "It's a crime to let a sucker keep his money". While I don't subscribe to that as a way to live one's life, "a fool and his money are soon parted".

Foolish buyers don't need brokers: some of the WORST scenarios of buyers getting "taken" didn't involve brokers: they were all instances where buyers thought they were "taking advantage of" some seller who had gotten themselves in a bind.

And to think Real Estate Brokers are any worse than other "investment professionals" is really out of line: a) Take a look at the ungodly amount of misrepresentation of risk by "financial professionals" (investment bankers, etc.) that have gotten into this mess: certainly they are MUCH more to blame than the Real Estate Brokers. One thing I remember was during the time the NASDAQ crashed from 5,000 to 1100, someone did a survey of the buy and sell recommendations by the major brokerage firms. Apparently during the time of this horrendous crash, out of something like 5,000 recommendations, something like 5 were "sell" recommendations and 4,995 were "buy" recommendations. And none of those were made by Real Estate Brokers.

No one said real estate brokers were worse than stock brokers...but they are certainly worst than most professionals. They are in line with other salespeople...car salesmen, stock brokers, and investment bankers.

Whatev, you stand out 30yrs...Dont try to taint your profession broadly with your professionalism.

so...are we to assume that billrob1606 as a first time poster is not just a shill for stephanie but a for real contributor?

Several brokers (100% of the ones I have met or seen) this fall have looked me dead in the eye and said "prices are rising again". You tell me 30 years...is that honest? is that supportable by data? are they that stupid, or are they that dishonest? Tell me.

Look, there's nothing wrong with having an opinion and expressing it. There's nothing wrong doing it when you might have something to gain: people usually are not in the business of selling something they don't believe in. Do some bad apples say things against their true beliefs? Certainly. But more often, they are just not qualified to be giving the advice they are giving, and do not have the wisdom to realize it. Is this unique to real estate? Hardly.

What took me aback was sd's claim to not "convince" buyers when she was clearly engaging in that activity pretty recently (more recent than 2 years ago). So she changed her mind on the subject, who knows why? I'm hoping she can tell us. I dunno, but I would think seeing client lose their entire down payment and then some would make one wary of playing financial consultant. Honestly, I doubt sd or many other brokers thought a 30% drop was even possible. Perhaps it takes being wrong in a big way to make one realize the fact that they have to be measured in predictions about the future.

-burp-

So people find Rhino to be annoying and unable to have civil, intelligent discussions. Interesting . . .

i have a number of friends who are brokers at large companies. they tell me of these meetings that are held where corcoran, elliman, whoever, bring in "experts" to tell the brokers the state of the market, and the future. and it is my opinion that for many of these brokers that is the limit of what they know about macroeconomic trends and they believe what they are told. i don't necessarily think they are dissembling when they present certain information or beliefs, it has been fed to them and until recently i can't imagine why many would have had any cause to doubt the veracity, although it may not be hard to fathom in retrospect or to those who were looking at hard numbers and credit standards and the like all along. it's true that people shouldn't use a real estate broker as a financial advisor. it's also true now that people shouldn't look to banks for appropriate underwriting standards.

as inonada says, perhaps the carnage was a bit of a come to jesus moment for some. on the other hand, a friend who is a corcoran broker and who knows me and my opinions quite well recently told me that now is probably the optimal time for me to buy, the bonus money is coming, and to beware because the foreign buyers are returning. i asked her why she thought i'd want to buy if the bubble was being reinflated. she said the opportunity might not arise again in the next few years. *sigh*

memo to jmd2577: go procreate with thy self

jmd2577, it sounds like you have a head for business. Would you happen to know a good RE broker that you'd recommend for a buyer?

Sheesh. I was kind of interested in the original question and people's responses to it, but sifting through all this meta-discussion and ad hominem crap is just not worth it . . .

Nice spinny. That went over his head ahart.

Jmd. Who said I was a commie? You do understand making money is about either increasing the net benefit to society or bringing efficiencies. Me thinkz 6% based on bubble prices about to fall is neither beneficial to society nor wholly efficient.

My car in 1989 had 250 hp and cost a ton, now a Honda accord has 270hp and cost well like a honda. See better and cheaper on a absolute $ basis. Virgin owners!!!!! That tag lag is not funny. How about 'does your azz hurt, well just stop paying for rent' I'll show u how call me 1800stephrelube.

I made a funny realtor = re lube.

Burp

stephanie seems to have a lot of friends....

none of whom get it that they are just making it worse.

I think that the residential market in Manhattan improved in the last few months. However it's a mixed picture since there are now a few listings being advertised as "short sales" and probably we are going to see more of them next year. I expect 2010 to be similar to the last months of 2009 with a selective market, stable prices for most of the properties with some exceptions. Only my opinion and I am a broker.

inonanda - My intent behind the Property Virgins NYC Seminar (and no, I coined this expression before HGTV had their show) is to provide information that I discovered was not getting to buyers in general and also have a voice on what is going on in the market from my standpoint as someone who does this for a living. I stand behind the seminar's contents. However, the marketing and execution of marketing, yes, that is what had problems and I am working on revising/revisiting it with Melinda Davis (also my Aunt) of The Next Group (http://www.thenextgroup.com/ and here if you like, http://www.otellus.com/espeakers/3479/Melinda-Davis.html). And I honestly do believe in "don't put your hard earned money in your landlords pocket" "go on a media moratorium" "This may be the best time and only time in my lifetime that market conditions favor buyers in this capacity" "This is your primary residence where you intend to live a happy, healthy life. For most, it is not about your stock portfolio" "The best time to buy is as soon as you are ready to buy a home".... but structure, intent, presentation was not a total success. Nuts and bolts are there.

Little background: I was mentored by a top broker at Halstead on conducting the content of this seminar; as well as, I made sure to look at Neil Binder's book "The Ultimate Guide to Buying and Selling Coops and Condos in New York City." I then added the "artistic angle" for marketing and my thoughts/experiences, but hey, maybe it doesn't work. I want to help out with what potential buyers need, what information they want/need, am I speaking to them?..... It is a work in progress and I realize I am trying to do something different because of the "switch" that Melinda speaks of. Why? Because I believe that this is what consumers have asked for. And ultimately it comes down to giving the best service me and my team can provide.

“A decision of this magnitude truly warrants a custom analysis of your personal finances and family's needs, by a local professional. It may even make sense to speak with several different types of professionals: a Realtor, a mortgage professional, a CPA, a financial planner, etc., depending on your situation, to determine whether now is the right time for you to buy, and how to harness current market conditions to make the best buy possible.” – Tara-Nicholle Nelson

Hope this helps.

saul - what, no blue PRO thingy?

What's your interpretation of stable? 1749 properties dropped their price by 5% or more in the last two months. Is that stable?

All right, back to market talk...

spinnaker1: only an opinion based on my experience with real transactions, asking prices could drop even more since many are still too high, and nevertheless the market improve since there is more balance between buyers and sellers.

Steph -

Do you believe that a re market could have a bubble (irrationally high prices, based on fundamental factors like incomes relative to property prices, cost of renting, yield on re as in investment purchase, etc.)? By definition, if something is in a bubble there is danger of the bubble bursting, so you can't say it is a bubble but it will always be a bubble, because then it isn't a buble.

If so, do you believe that NYC market was in a bubble this decade?

If so, do you believe it is still in a bubble?

Steph

Do you believe that it is possible that prices could fall in NYC as dramatically as they did in the late 80s, early 90s?

If you believe that is possible, do you not believe that current market conditions are as apt to produce such an outcome as any conditions we have seen since that time?

Do you believe buyers should just accept today's market price -- even though re is inherently sticky and illiquid and effected by major fluctuating factors such as credit available -- as received wisdom and not adopt a view about future market trends?

Steph

What do you expect to happen to the large poster-child new condo developments that are still less than 50% sold out?....and what impact might that have on the broader market?

Steph. Can a fat dog lose more weight than a skinny dog?

LOL w67th

I love the blue "PRO" thing. It lets me know in an instant that I'm about to be exposed to a worthless biased broker opinion. (30YRS et al: please remain "non-PROs" please ;-)

It amazes me at the amount of people on here who decide to bash and not talk facts.

For as many of you that have a negative thing to say about those that work in the real estate industry, I can find someone else who has something POSITIVE to say.

Real estate transactions are nothing more than a business transaction. You HAVE to know what you're getting yourself into. Would you go and buy a franchise without any support, education or knowledge of what you're doing? No. Why would you do the same when it comes to real estate?

Someone mentioned Jonathan Miller's name. I was fortunate enough to hear him speak at a dinner earlier this week. We don't have a HOUSING crisis... we actually have a CREDIT crisis. Once you realize this, then you'll see the bigger picture of our changing economy.

Quit bashing... let's stick to facts and talk real estate!

/end soapbox

matthaze et al - I'm amazed by all the righteous indignation. SE is a community and not unlike any other. Why do you expect it to like salesmen more than any other normal community?

yet another magically appearing new poster...should start a club: friends of stephanie's.

FLMAO. I had jon miller over for dinner, he said this is a "housing crisis" and not a "credit crisis". Matthaze, I think he's sugar coating it for you industry types.

/end RE bubble brought to you by the credit bubble... so goes credit there goes RE bubble.. FLMAO.... goddamnit, does anyone still believe we were not in a massive credit/re bubble? Do you have blinders on? Do you just inbreeed? Do you read? Do you smell what's cooking?

One other thing, NYC RE is toast for a long long long time...... mmmmm toast, butter, a little sprinkle of cinnamin sugar... mmmmm

Its somewhat of a trick question... I dont think you can claim that there is ONE trend that covers the entire market because there isnt ONE market, but tens maybe hundreds of smaller 'submarkets'. I can tell you that market trends I see from my work on the UWS is different from what I see Downtown, and again completely different from my work in DUMBO. I think it goes beyond the fundamentals of location as well, and moreso how the neighborhood has developed... Downtown, I see more investors who bought into the condo boom and now need/want to sell because of lower rent rolls and resetting mortgages etc, whereas my UWS sellers tend to be more owner occupants and usually sell because of a lifestyle change like additions to family or an empty nest... Do those criteria and life situations change the value of the 'asset' and where the property is priced on the market? Im not sure, but they certainly change the sense of urgency for the seller and hence operate differently.

Volumes are up, prices are down. There is no upward price movement. What we have is a pause in the price decline that began shortly before Lehman (but barely noticable) and accelerated rapidly after. Most of the 25-30% price decline had hit by March-May, then it stopped, and buyers chomped at these 'bargains'. From there, brokers began lying in the fall, characterizing higher activity levels as higher prices, which was basically disingenuous. I have yet to discern an actual uptick in price, but would be anxious to see proof of such. People are still shopping with their 2007 bonuses. The Goldman people are too smart to buy right now...and the hedgies have barely covered their 2008 losses, therefore dont expect big bonuses this year for them. Oh yes and the stock market is fighting very hard with this 1100-1120 level.

Hail Columbia! Yes, we should start a fan club... Certainly it is better than the hate fest and lynching some here are engaging in. Where are your supporters? Do you have anyone who has worked or known you who can give you kudos or testimonials? I hope those less biased folks on the site realize that past and present associates and clients/customers value Stephanie and her efforts in this volatile landscape. You would be well served to request a meeting to see for yourselves, if needing the services of a qualified Broker. Spinnaker1 states that SE is a '... community and not unlike any other.'. Sadly, that is true. Researching History, one does not have to look far to see what atrocities people in 'community' have been capable of, especially when they believe their actions have public approval. And now for self-promotion: to learn about another type of community, I invite you all to come to a performance of Prospect Theater's new Musical, EVERGREEN, opening on 12/19 thru 1/3 at the Marjorie S. Deane Little Theater in the West Side YMCA (5 W. 63rd Street). It is a cautionary tale, but filled with hope... where home has become a barren wasteland and people are driven to forage and live a nomadic existence in tents (not hi-rises!). I believe in COMMUNITY: the COMMUNITY OF HUMANS.

how long have you been posting here?

I love when this board degrades into folk signing. Community of humans. Haha. The city has a ton of virtues. If you want to make the argument that humans are meant to live on top of eachother like this and stuff into tubes to get from here to there...thats a tough argument to make.

A lot will depend on how banks treat deliquent borrowers, as well as short sale willingness.

Seems that all these first time posters calling for world peace and extolling the OP's virtues enjoy using lots of "..."s and ALLCAPS. What a strange coincidence.

Just read this article on the market - macro take though...

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/12/thoughts_on_housing_the_4_forc.html

steph wrote: From an anecdotal standpoint, my team began getting our buyers into contract in March and we have been busy ever since. It was dead quiet from the Lehman collapse to end of January 2009. The majority of our current buyers are first time buyers in the $1.5Mill price point and below. We have 12 exclusive buyer clients and 8 are in contract. The other 4 break down as such: one is in process of offer, 2 are looking for 2010 move in's and one is just at the beginning of their search and may rent. This buyer is also thankful for the extension of the First Time Buyer Tax Credit.

The whole tone of that seems ridiculously chirpy. Someone from outer space reading it would think there was a brief dip in activity, and now things are getting back on track. Also, the idea that a buyer in Manhattan is "thankful" for the tax credit is 1) a sign of a true idiot, given the relative import of that in this market , or 2) steph couldn't resist the opportunity to mention something fundamentally irrelevant in this market, but which sounds good, until you stop to think about. Also, her comments reflect no sense of where the hell this market has been, that there has been an historic bubble. I think anyone chirpy needs to explain how currently still bubbly prices are sustainable.

wow. hey steph, jim asked you several very inteliigent questions. what, no two way street? you take the comments of all the best posters here and pass them off to your circle, or whatever you said you're using their thoughts for, but no reciprocation? all take, no give? 30 years, you are in a class of your own, and i doubt you would ever send a property vigins letter like that... i met steph at an open house.. don't really understand what she's trying to do here on the board, seems weird.

i don't mind someone looking for business. i don't mind reading an opinion about the market, although i may very well disagree. but as jim put it the chirpy recitation of how the market started coming back in MARCH (ALLCAPS) gave me an instant headache. steph, know your audience. to the loving cheerleaders, give me an f'ng break.

i don't think she's looking for business.

Rhino86: I totally agree.
I don't see how the DJ can stay above 10,000 in 2010 and I expect prices to go down another 20% in Manhattan.

Jim

Been working sorry for the delay - I am sorry if I sound "chirpy" but my update on current our buyers is the truth (yes, facts) and that is exactly why I said it. It could be an uptick, a fluke, a whatever, but I was just giving information on what was going on to shed light. (and the first time buyer tax credit is important to my buyers in the $250K-450K range, every bit helps).

Brompton is giving around 30% off listing prices and The Azure is giving around 20%. Just a little fyi from what I am witnessing today.

And I do now know my audience.

you're welcome.

don't you think that both the brompton and the azure are still way above reasonable long term value?

See you out there :)

Man, this board is done. TGIF - ciao

another friend of stephanie?

"And I honestly do believe in "don't put your hard earned money in your landlords pocket" "go on a media moratorium" "This may be the best time and only time in my lifetime that market conditions favor buyers in this capacity" "This is your primary residence where you intend to live a happy, healthy life. For most, it is not about your stock portfolio" "The best time to buy is as soon as you are ready to buy a home"...."

Stephanie, to me much of that sounds like "convincing" buyers. There is nothing wrong with sharing that, if you choose to take that route as a broker. Some may think it's bad advice. Some may think your statements would come off better if they were more measured or one-sided. However, the absoluteness with which turns a lot of people off. That is why it's viewed as "convincing" the buyer.

How do you feel about this market? Have you bought recently or in the past? Are you planning on doing so?

Thanks inonanda; that is helpful feedback, thank you. I would love to continue but I have dinner plans/family engagement and stepping away for awhile. Please feel free to call me/email me/tweet me in the interim. Thanks.

Steph ..I also asked several questions above that you will see. They are not meant to be confrontational, but rather meant to understand how someone in the thick of it looks at this market, at this point in time. So let me/us know whenyou can.Ｔｈａｎｋｓ

"Whatev, you stand out 30yrs...Dont try to taint your profession broadly with your professionalism. "

I think I've made more than clear my opinions of the AVERAGE broker on several occasions. What "set me off" was the concept that 1 non-broker's was worth *ANY* 100 broker's posts, or that ALL BROKERS have an INHERENT conflict of interest, and that all brokers who advised anyone to buy now were being dishonest. I took it personally (as I often do, if you hadn't noticed) and reacted personally (as I often do, if you hadn't noticed).

But also, I agree with what AR posted (as I often do) that MOST brokers get their "opinions" on where the market is going spoon fed to them by people who are "dog and pony showed" to them to be "the real experts". As a result, I think a lot of them (although certainly not all) are being honest when they have just come out of some company meeting where it was "proven" to them by an economist, a whatever and whoever that the market is about to rebound and start to climb again.

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

great...so glad that they're honest. meanwhile, they screw everyone and everything around them. look at steph. do you really want to support her?

I would support her against any UNWARRANTED attacks (and I think some of the "attacks" in this thread were unwarranted). I won't support anyone against warranted attacks, even if they were from the firm where I keep my desk. Look, Ali and I are "partners" on some transactions, sit right next to each other, and are currently planning a venture which we hope will "revolutionize" (hey, I'm a broker, I inherently can not prevent myself from using hyperbole when self promoting) the services which consumers can get from Real Estate Brokers, and when SHE says things which I disagree with, I don't hold back on this forum, do I?

your use of caps and quotes is making me dizzy. yeah or nay for stephanie?

I don't think it is appropriate for me to make "yeah or nay" statements/judgments of brokers on this site unless they are involved in something particularly egregious. Even though I probably shouldn't do this either, I have much less of a problem discussing what I think of a specific action taken by someone.

Oh, and I think something people don't realize is that the "PRO" thing is SteatEasy's idea, and a way for them to derive revenue by having brokers pay a monthly fee of $75 to receive that demarcation. So if you don't want any "pro's", you're going to be taking away revenue from this site. I'm not so sure people who love this site should be trying so hard to have brokers NOT become SE PRO's.

so you figure that steph's $75 makes a difference here? come on, lets get real.

I'm all for SE finding ways to generate revenue but any SE feature developer with any experience here should know immediately the fly trap this pro designation represents to the people they intend to benefit.

If I had a say SE would create user customizable report tools. I want to know UWS list to contract days for the last 6 months for everything under 2M and I want it on a graph by price, sorta thing. People might pay for it.

Or how 'bout this for a graph: days on market vs price per square foot.

rvargas said " They are sales people. In this case, even with a warning label. We all understand how they are compensated. They don't sing the same song, they don't share identical personality traits any more than any other other profession. "

What a bunch of CRAP! They are the most easily predictable group of people i've ever seen! They are nearly all female. From there, they come in two varieties: 20-something empty-headed, large-breasted (natural or otherwise) bleach-blond BUBBLEHEADS who know ZILCH about real estate or markets in general. The other variety is the 40-something yenta with a saccarine smile so phony you could fit all its sincerity on an amoeba's ass, and still have room to park a winnebago.

Cordially,

Hugh G. Rection

a) I think the people who get stuck to the fly trap should be given the right/opportunity to decide for themselves what the risks/benefits are.

b) I don't think it's an either/or thing as far as what consumer users want vs generating revenue.

c) I would think that if consumers really thought about it, they would want to have brokers be identified, if only so that you guys could stigmatize us with greater ease. Think of how much harder it would have been to make fun of the current target if she hadn't had this designation.

d) I don't think a lot of you realize that even brokers are people who have feelings and even if you think they are lying scum, they do feel some pride in their "good name". It's way too easy for a lot of you to take out your frustrations about whatever has gone wrong with your day by "kicking the dog/broker". jimstreeteasy noted that he had asked several legitimate questions that he felt had not been answered. But at this point in the thread, I think all we have shown a new member - who may or may not have spent the appropriate amount of time looking into the pool before jumping in - that even if she does her best to honestly answer current questions, she's still going to take a load of shit. I can not think of a better way of convincing her that what I would consider to be "doing the right thing (i.e. answering tough questions with honest answers) will get her nothing, so why bother? I'm not defending any of her "history" in the business: we don't know each other and have no personal or professional relationship other than being members of REBNY and perhaps some other professional organizations, as well as "cooperating brokerage firms". I just think that trying to chase off new people from this site is counter productive to everyone.

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

BTW, proving my own point:

http://streeteasy.com/stephanied

30yrs, to claim no conflict of interest is silly to me. The fact of the matter is that there is selection bias in any profession: people attracted to that profession have a belief that what they are involved with is particularly special. They believe it more than the average Joe. Add in a compensation structure that is rewarded by a particular state of the world, and you have a pretty clear conflict of interest.

Does this mean every broker makes up crap they don't believe in? Hardly. Does it mean they are more likely to believe in the crap compared to the average Joe? Yah. That is why the broker who can distinguish the crap or be more nuanced is particularly appreciated.

Very interesting anecdote from many years ago. I was yapping socially with some guy who worked at a counter at Avis or the like. The subject of buying insurance at the counter came up. Now everyone knows that insurance is the biggest ripoff ever. It annualizes to like $7K a year when the actual cost is more like $1-2K. Most people (in that area anyways) already have their own insurance that has them covered, and then there is coverage that many credit cards provide. Despite all this, he said that he personally always gets the insurance. For just $20, why risk it / worry about it? He wasn't trying to sell me anything. That was his honest opinion.

Alternatively, what fraction of GS employees truly believe they are doing important work and being justly compensated? What fraction of John Q. Public believes that?

"Brompton is giving around 30% off listing prices and The Azure is giving around 20%. Just a little fyi from what I am witnessing today."

hi stephany. curious if the brompton 30% discount is from the listing prices of sponsor units on street easy?

thanks