How do you feel about the future of NY as a place in which to purchase?

ask http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus

forget urban digs, he is a nice guy but he is not nostradamus, he is just making money like everyone else

indeed, noone can tell the future ... but everyone has an opinion about it - am just interested in the opinions
(and just because someone's making money doesn't mean opinions are necessarily off) Noah is actually a bear at the current time and the link i posted is far from bullish

If France and the UK really become super hostile to bankers and by chance the US does not, in the short term, it really will help NYC. In the long term, I think more tax friendly places around the world may become bigger finance centers.

Do you think that the future of NY will be different than its past? Do you think that people wont want to live here? do you think that RE will no longer be a valuable commodity in NYC?

perfitz: those are the questions i struggle with, yes
we know that the center of gravity for financial services has shifted from NY to London (and maybe HK) .. at least for the time being; will that continue?
in a hot, flat and crowded world, what will happen to urban centers like NY
then the issue becomes one of demographic shifts and trends - i.e. how many people still want to come to NY to live out the american dream?
i'm seeing more young professionals get educated here, and instead of staying here like they used to, they go back to their countries of origin or to those with more bustling, exciting opportunities
i think of our corporate tax rate, our government subsidies for innovation, etc. and wonder how this will all play itself out

What is a "tax friendly" country that is not also a 3rd world nation?

"- what does the future health of NY look like?"
People like to live around other people and NY's historic value should be an asset to it's future.
Barring a major terrorist event, it should continue to be coveted.

I have small concerns on the gentrification of manhattan, and it's definiton is different to different people. it is definitely, become a little "too residential" in many areas.
The garment industry really put NY on the map in the last century and was replaced by the finance industry. Hard to say what technology will do this industry and the effect on NYC.
I think NYC has lost some of it's cultural mojo, but this is also a global event. Point is I am hopeful NYC is the source for the next big wave somehow.
Of course, I may just be getting older and think things like guitar hero (glorified game of Simon) and
buying/creating art online are steps backwards.

"- what is the migration in and out of the city? (and of whom?)"
it's always an adjustment of waves, depending on industry, immigration and immigration policies.

- what's happening to the tax picture in the city and what is the impact on the cost of living?
That's a good question. When I hear these benchmarks for national consideration on tax structures ie. 250K and I laugh to myself that this president and congress treat a Ny'ers salary like someone in osh kosh. All salaries are not created equal. A 250K salary in NYC is like a 125K salary most everywhere else. Without an upswing in cultural draw to NYC, this city faces increased competition from up and coming cities.

"- what are tourism trends?"
Don't know, I stay away from the touristy things

"Do you think that the future of NY will be different than its past? Do you think that people wont want to live here? do you think that RE will no longer be a valuable commodity in NYC? "

Stupid comment.

"Do you think that the future of NY will be different than its past?"

Of course. If there is one thing NY is known for, its change. Clearly you know nothing about NY's past if you think otherwise.

"Do you think that people wont want to live here?"

People will want to live in Kansas and Boston, too... but that in itself doesn't justify certain prices. Question is will people want to live in NY at bubble prices? The answer is no, or at least they can't anymore... which is why the bubble popped.

"do you think that RE will no longer be a valuable commodity in NYC?"

It will be a valuable commodity, it just won't return to bubble pricing. Boston RE is also a valuable commodity. But expecting $3k per square foot is just stupid.

> "- what does the future health of NY look like?"

Well, fiscally, its absolute toast. The city and state are in horrible, horrible shape. We're simply out of money, without any real place to get it.

Expect some BRUTAL cuts over the next few years (and they're starting already).

from Noah...

"Since 2000, NY has experienced the greatest national migration loss of 1.5million people; this has been offset by a large influx of foreigners which has lead to a mild overall population increase
85% of the above loss has come from the NYC region, while 70% has been from the city, itself""

"the income of households moving out of the state was 13% greater than those coming into the state"

Buy soon
Today:
rates are good
inventories good
inflation low
Future:
rates are high
inventories good
inflation high
RE dollar cost rises with inflationary pressures
This is with repect to primary residence and long horizon time.

somewherelese ... actually, (full disclosure) that was an article i wrote on UrbanDigs ... i wanted to direct people there because writing it raised many interesting issues ...

indeed, the demographic trends of NY bring up many questions - that's why i overlayed them with the supposedly good news on the tax revenue front ... of course, as we're hearing over the last two days in the news, the impact of our state and city budget issues is just beginning to be felt

falcogold1 - with respect to inflation, you bring up a good point regarding inflation - though it's not so easy to say real estate is a good inflation hedge:
http://theapplepeeled.com/investors/inflation-for-and-against/

those are both sides of the equation: why inflation is on its way and why it many not be

that said, real estate has traditionally tracked inflation neck in neck ... not much more

> though it's not so easy to say real estate is a good inflation hedge

Inflation will bring about higher mortage rates, maybe considerably.

Anyone want to say thats good for RE in a crash.... you must be SteveF...

Falco, are you yet another person who mistakenly thinks the right time to buy is when interest rates are low?

Anyone who thinks a shrinking finance industry and tougher going forward financing environment can support prices at even these levels is smoking crack. Never mind the property and income tax increases and mortgage deduction reductions coming down the pike.

If you look at the census, population in NYC has only gone up since 2000. Trend wise there is a lack of middle income; the rich are richer and the poor are poorer; that is a real concern.

exactly - overall population is net positive, but the migration out of the city is replaced by less income per capita coming in

It may not necessarily be migration patterns; as we get older and retire, we are considered "poorer".

I don't think migration changes the fact that NYC has a high population density, and when you have so many people and limited land, that value of the land will stay high.

interesting, condojake ... thing is, i'm not sure i buy into the limited land argument

Shiller doesn't either (not that he's the end all, be all): http://theapplepeeled.com/buyers/up-close-with-robert-shiller-part-2/

BUY NOTHING in this area in 2010 SELL only.. Prices will not bottom until Stoxx Fall in one great explosive collapse with luxury RE (over 720,000) CHOPS AHOY !!

Luxury RE in NY is anything over $720,000? LOL