What will 2010 bring in?

A famous golfer will get divorced.

Causing a panic nannydom and of resulting in NYC re trading for 2003-2004 prices.

alpie moves to east harlem condo

Mouse infestations reports will be demanded.

steveF will tell us it's never been a better time to buy. i'll still be in my bear den.

More happy SE babies (probably not for me though)! A substantive comment from the OP (dare to dream)? LeBron to the Knicks (though I don't care for either)?

either Isis, Georgica, or Azure goes into default.

This apartment will be sold three MORE times;

StreetEasy History
03/02/2009Listed by Warburg at $2,995,000.
03/08/2009Price decreased by 23% to $2,300,000.
03/08/2009Listing sold.
04/27/2009Re-listed by Warburg.
04/27/2009Price increased by 26% to $2,895,000.
05/04/2009Price decreased by 21% to $2,300,000.
05/04/2009Listing sold.
05/11/2009Re-listed by Warburg.
05/18/2009Price increased by 17% to $2,695,000.
05/27/2009Listing sold.
06/02/2009Price decreased by 7% to $2,495,000.
06/07/2009Price decreased by 8% to $2,300,000.
06/22/2009Re-listed by Warburg.
06/22/2009Price increased by 8% to $2,495,000.
09/07/2009Listing is no longer available.
09/25/2009Re-listed by Warburg.
12/16/2009Price decreased by 4% to $2,395,000.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/388239-coop-425-east-58th-street-sutton-place-new-york

The Second Avenue Subway

I will keep up by ballet classes, even though I am over-the-hill in ballerina years, and my fondu relevee will start to look pretty darn good.

Also, Brooklyn prices in class-B nabes (Windsor Terrace, Ft. Greene, etc) will fall from current levels of about $400 to $500 psf to about $300 to $400 psf, and I will buy a 2 bd. Cheers!

The Census Bureau estimates for each percentage point of the population that does not return a form during the 2010 Census, it will cost approximately $80-90 million to have census workers make personal visits to obtain the missing information. Conversely, if the mail-return rate increases, then the non-response follow-up workload will decrease, reducing the cost of the census by approximately $80-90 million for each percentage point of reduction.

All the transplant New Yorkers start freaking out about the service cuts. The folks who thought they knew what a recession here was like because they saw 2001 (a fake one, essentially) will be blown away by what goes on.

Kids having to pay to go to school? If you think THATS budget crisis level, watch out.

Albany and the city council are going to get into fistfights (good, because at least one moron will get punched).

bulls will say that since manhattan RE didn't go down 79%, they were right.

that's funny, Apt_Boy.

One other thing I forgot to say: it will get harder to generalize about markets in 2010 because growth is going to be so, so uneven. This could be true of NYC residentials markets too.

For instance, I'm just spitballin here, but maybe there is a fair amount of pentup demand for 2- to 3 beds on the UWS, say from families looking to move or buy. So if price declines push asking levels on those types of units down far enough, we could see a fair amount of buying in this one little corner of the market, while luxe one-beds in FiDi go begging, say.

There's been some of that already but I think there will be lots more of it, as we get to clearing levels on certain categories of apt.

Also, there is not enough differentiation in the resi market in NYC -- that was caused by the debt bubble. There is too much similarity between say pricing in LIC and pricing in Chelsea. The availability of cheap debt tended to push all prices up in all aubmarkets to uniform levels -- that is really going to go away.

A healthy market should be highly differentiated -- at least that's what I hear. And there are great differences between NYC nabes -- school district quality, available of mass transit, proximity to public services, proximity to crime, yadda yadda. All of that should start to factor in as the market begins to sort itself out.

So once again, it will start to matter to you as a buyer or seller if you have indepth knowledge of a neighborhood. Knowledge and experience will start to count for something, again.

"A healthy market should be highly differentiated -- at least that's what I hear. And there are great differences between NYC nabes -- school district quality, available of mass transit, proximity to public services, proximity to crime, yadda yadda. All of that should start to factor in as the market begins to sort itself out. "

agreed.

I've been saying for some time that the marginals like LIC are going to fall harder... especially when folks notice that the gentrification in those hoods is receding.

"Albany and the city council are going to get into fistfights (good, because at least one moron will get punched)."

West67th will make us all popcorn as we deconstruct the play-by-play.

Alan, you know the 2nd Ave line is nothing more than a very expensive hole in the ground - the longer it gets, the more it costs. That train coming at you? A mirage, nothing more. Really.

The WTC Freedom Tower will still not be built; carping and name-calling and finger-pointing will continue apace.

bjw2103,

We have a confession from you? (Out the closet) LMAO. I already knew LOL.

AR,

I have not been on SE too much as of recent but would like to know if nyc10022 has posted anything recently? Checking on a SE buddy thats all.

My boss called into a room few hours ago

And told me layoffs are coming. But .. I guess we played the cards right and may get promotions....

2010 will bring more layoffs, while banks may survive service companies like mine are hit hard.

mutombonyc, I thought nyc10022 moved to L.A. and bought a house there ... ? Why would he still post here?

alanfart,

You thought, you're always incorrect.

It's the truth. It's actual.

truthskr: what the hell is that apt firesale about? mice? bed bug?, ghosts? ghastly co op board? that is amazing. what gives?

alanfart,

Where's your proof? HaHaHa.

mutombo, yes, not having kids means you're out of the closet. Hilarious. And your "SE buddy" is still posting his fun, shrill nonsense, just in time for the holidays!

The automatic earth blogspot (http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/) is dedicated to this very topic today (12/17/2009)! I won't recreate the whole top ten, but just reproduce their prediction 10:

10) Unrest

The main newbie and the rising star in 2010. We've seen instances the past year, which the media have hilariously all attempted to label "terrorism", but watch for a million different forms of unrest in a million different places, and all over the planet, some of it decidedly ugly. A lot of people stand to lose a lot of what they have long been led to believe is rightfully theirs, and they're not all going to take it lying down. Not anymore.

2009 was the year of the gullible victim.

2010 will be the year of the wake-up call.

I know I can be bearish here on SE, but the automaticearth authors make me look like a cuddly bear cub. Having to give pause and overcome disbelief at some of the extreme predictions on that site gives me some better perspective on the cynicism bulls have with the bear schtick here - its like being confronted with something that is almost infathomable. (The Stoneleigh post from November was particularly grim)

Anyway, I think unrest (or at least change) is on its way in quite a few places.

bjw2103,

Seriously, you need to stop trying to sniff nyc10022 underwear.

mutombo, you do realize that somewhereelse is nyc10022? announced it here, wrote that 10022 was no longer apt as had moved. hence the somewhereelse.

i was assuming you were joking. sometimes i'm dense, but just in case you're not, thought i'd set this record straight (so to speak, as it were, etc.).

AR,

No, I haven't realize nyc10022 is somewhereelse, when was the announcement made, of all these changes? I don't hang on SE like I use too. If I were on SE like I used too, I would have known about these changes and not asked. Have you finished your Christmas shopping? How is all with you and family?

In 2010 Al Sharpton will hold a press conference, and be outraged.

jim, more or less outraged than usual?

mutombo, no problem. it was a couple of months ago. sorry, i thought you might be joking.

i have finished my christmas shopping, other than the food stuffs. and i did my best to help the economy. actually, it will be a bit of a courier & ives type christmas, with lots of friends, cutting down a tree, stringing popcorn and cranberries, ice skating on our pond, etc. i'm not the type (or i pretend that i'm not), but my family is and my daughter is bringing a very dear friend and we will be having the MOST wonderful time in the country. hope all is well with you, as well, and happy holidays!! to you and to all.

AR

I like the popcorn and cranberries decoration for your christmas tree. Good to hear all is well with you and family.

Oh my, with all that popcorn and cranberries and such strung and laying about, I think there could be a mouse infestation, which could lead to mouse infestation board memos, and demands to see such memos.

Jim,

LOL.

re Al Sharpton: it's always full tilt fully outraged. No nuance. After what happened to Tawana Brawley, that is understandable:

WIKIPEDIA: Brawley has maintained she did not invent the story and in a 1997 appearance, she still had supporters.[30] In November 2007, Brawley's stepfather and mother, in a 20th anniversary feature for the New York Daily News contended the attack happened. "How could we make this up and take down the state of New York? We're just regular people," Glenda Brawley said, adding, "We should be millionaires." They said they had asked New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Governor Eliot Spitzer to reopen the case. They also said that Brawley, who has converted to Islam, would speak at any legal proceedings.[31]

jim, funny, but this is in the country. we don't do memos, we hire orkin.

Just had a flash of inspiration.

Brawley = aboutready.

And aboutready is joking about Al Sharpton's outrage. At least he's come up with something to do with himself. Which is more than some woman who lives off everyone else's hard work and does nothing herself more than walk her husband to work, gorge on McDonalds, make it up in the gym for two hours, and write on streeteasy fawning outrage for the benefit of the poor and her own pocketbook to kill the rest of the day.

I beat up the burley old Irishman that got in my face at the 92Y. Story makes the Post. You are all shocked at how handsome I am.

The gold trade is over, as Glenn Beck marks the top with embarrassingly obvious in-show promotion of the shiny metal. Gold trades to $600/oz.

Actually we are shocked that you won the fight.

I will not buy a condo within six weeks of snow having fallen.