Rental Landlords getting upper hand

my LL just sent me a renewal with a $375.00 reduction on a $2500 a month lease, including a note "hoping we can work this out and you will want to renew"

From the NYPost? It's entertainment, not news ( unless they accidently get close to the truth, which would be purely coincidental.)

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/16848-for-everyone-who-thinks-they-are-going-to-continue-to-push-for-more-rental-concessions

I will draw everyone's attention back to my thread from a few weeks ago. Landlords are now saying what the big rental brokerage in town has said we are getting back to a more normailized rental market. Happy Holildays

kind of like the government telling the unemployed that the recession is over. no self serving agenda involved.

Yup. 2 free months' rent on a 14-month lease sure does sound like a strengthening market to me. A 10% increase on a 15% fall does, too - for a net fall of 7.5%.

Even RELATED is giving incentives on some of its buildings, and since RockRose split into two, JFCornerstone has lowered rents on the luxury buildings they now manage.

And thousands of more units are coming onto the market, and StuyTown & PCV have 4,400 vacant apartments to rent.

Bodes well.

What crap.

i think its awesome that you guys only believe the information you choose to beileve. If there was a thread with a story from the new york post that quoted landlords as saying their business was worsening, you would be all over it like jackals.

But aren't jackals permanent and everlasting players in any NYC real estate transaction or discussion? The jackals will always be with us .... and occasionally we too will be jackal-like.

but its not coming back..very search i do on either craigslist corcoran or citiH, brings back tons of availabilities w/ incentives at prices that are lowere than they were 6 months ago. I guess it depends who you ask and what metric they are using. I keep things simple and just look at supply...it keeps on growing

as anybody who lives in a rental building in Manhattan knows there are more empty places then ever. The next step the LL will have to take once they realize there is not enough demand at this pricing level will be to lower rents enough to get all those people who moved to Brooklyn back into Manhattan.

your internet searches dont mean much......i rent apartments, ok? the market is less a renters market then last year at this time. sure, there are vacancies....on york ave, in the financial disctict, midtown west of 9th ave...generally second choice neighborhoods for most people....

and, of course, you have no vested interest in promoting this point of view? just trying to help us all out, right?

"i think its awesome that you guys only believe the information you choose to beileve"

Pot = kettle = black?

I didn't choose to "believe" anything - what I did is draw a completely different conclusion from the same set of facts, one that is, I think, more consonant with those facts.

your internet searches dont mean much......i rent apartments, ok?

ooooohhhhhhh...hahahahah.

Jimhones09 = monty pythons black knight..Its just a flesh wound!

Jim, I'm curious to get more details from you on what you've seen. When do you think the market bottom was? In your estimation, how much did prices fall from the peak, accounting for free months & fees? How much are prices up from the bottom right now?

'more normal'. So you listen to borkers? Let me just ask you, did even ONE borker in 2007 tell you lock in all your tenants for 3 year leases? Flmao. FYI by sheer brilliance I've got mine all lockd up till 2014, but you do understand my po-formas after 2014 is a big fucking question mark.

Like my son, I love playing in dirt, but I draw the line when I'm asked to put my head I the sand. It Getz all in my ears, yuck.

"Emerald Green went from giving two months’ free rent to raising prices and giving away one month free."

yes, now that sounds like someone with the upper hand!

I work with RDNY.com. We list over 5,000 rental apartments. In the course of weekly updating, I see landlords raising prices on apartments. Then, when they don't rent in two or three weeks, they lower the prices. After another two or three weeks, they raise the prices again, etc, etc.

I can only guess, but they may raise prices to give the perception that the market is getting stronger for them. They can use price rises to pressure prospective renters to "act now". Also, "perception is reality". If they can create the perception that prices are going up, it will push up rental activity.

Some landlords also have to show their lenders that they are pushing prices aggressively. So prices go up. Then the lender is satisfied that the landlord is being aggressive. After a week, the price goes down again, because the landlord has to rent at a realistic price.

I've seen some landlords (like Glenwood) put an apartment on the market for three weeks, then remove it for three weeks, then put it back on. They are trying to create the impression that there is a lot of leasing activity going on and the inventory is moving. But it really isn't moving very quickly at all.

I hope this helps.

Aptsill, thanks, that's really helpful information.

too funny..see landlords think that there is this shadoww inventory of renters just sitting on the sidelines debating what to do..the truth is they just arent there. until they drop it low enough to bring people back in from brooklyn...its hopeless. its at least fun watching the games

Aptsill, it's good to hear that landlords are keeping busy somehow!

I was playing poker the other day. I had built up a pretty decent stack, but the stack got smacked down by a hand I didn't see coming. So I was down but still in the game. Unfortunately, the blinds were going up and I felt the pressure to have to do something. So I pushed a few pots: you know, raise big on the flop with middle pair.

Then we get to this one hand. Blinds are big and attractive, I need room. So I raise pre-flop with trash. Flop comes, I got nothing, but I raise anyways. The guy calls. Then the turn, nothing doing still. I figure I better raise again to push this guy off the pot, but guy calls. Crap. Then comes the river -- top pair! -- I'm saved. So I push all-in.

The guy's got the stone cold nuts.

Damon Runyon, right?

To be honest (no shame, right?), I had never heard the name and had to Wikipedia it. Didn't even know who I was mimicking! Thanks for the lesson.

I am a part owner of a number of rental buildings in Manhattan. The rental market is not improving.

I'm curious, flatironj, what is your prognosis for the future in terms of rents? How long until we go back to where we were in 2007?

samadams said:
>> "as anybody who lives in a rental building in Manhattan knows there are more empty places then ever. The next step the LL will have to take once they realize there is not enough demand at this pricing level will be to lower rents enough to get all those people who moved to Brooklyn back into Manhattan."

I think he's exactly right - - there's going to be a whole influx of people moving in to Manhattan from the outer boroughs. That in turn should weaken prices further in those boroughs. I guess the question, then, is whether that in turn will accelerate the number of people thinking about leaving Manhattan who are in search of more space. They may not wind up spending less in Brooklyn, but they could get 2 BRs for the price of 1BR in Manhattan, 1BR for a Studio price, etc. ...

Also, aptsill's comments were also extremely good - -

>> "I can only guess, but they may raise prices to give the perception that the market is getting stronger for them. They can use price rises to pressure prospective renters to "act now". Also, "perception is reality". If they can create the perception that prices are going up, it will push up rental activity.

>> Some landlords also have to show their lenders that they are pushing prices aggressively. So prices go up. Then the lender is satisfied that the landlord is being aggressive. After a week, the price goes down again, because the landlord has to rent at a realistic price.

>> I've seen some landlords (like Glenwood) put an apartment on the market for three weeks, then remove it for three weeks, then put it back on. They are trying to create the impression that there is a lot of leasing activity going on and the inventory is moving. But it really isn't moving very quickly at all."

I have watched such unfathomable pricing activity by some of the big firms, and aptsill's explanation makes me feel like it's at least got something a little rational going on behind it.

at the end of the day if no one is there to sign on the dotted line...all the games in the world mean nothing.. thats the realitry of whats happening.

The big apartment management companies now use software similar to the airlines where they input information about you (single, married, # kids, how long you've been in your place, payment history, etc.) and comparable rents and it spits out a $number for your next rent renewal that, according to the model, statistically maximizes their return.

I am looking to rent and finding prices very negotiable. I am looking UWS. I am waiting for the two buildings -- 200 west 72nd ST and 200 west 67th to come on line. That will add 500 apts to inventory. When you include the 808 Columbus and then new development condos that are now renting -- either by new owners or sponsor-- there is plenty to choose from. I don't see how any landlord can raise rents in this area. That said, the reason I am looking is because Glenwood Grand Tier raised my rent to such an exorbitant amount that I had to leave. So did three other neighbors on my floor. Of the 4 apts that were empty on my floor, only two have been filled and they gave a free month incentive.

"If there was a thread with a story from the new york post that quoted landlords as saying their business was worsening, you would be all over it like jackals."

Difference, of course, would be that that article could be supported by facts.

Inonada, I have no idea. I doubt my prognosis is any better than yours. My guess is that unless Mr. Ben Bernanke or Mr. Barney Frank give every potential renter $25000, it could be quite a while.

rents will keep going down for 2010, only an idiot wouldn think that things are getting any better

More for the jackal feeding frenzy. Just the facts, mam

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/2010-residential-rental-market-starting-off-slow-tdg-tregny-report-shows

This article's headline should be "Rental Landors Getting Back of My hand"

Mid January through Mid April are WEAK seasons for rentals and landlors price accordingly. Better to lower the price by 5% than to lose a month of revenue which is equivalent to 8.25%. Smarter for them of course is just to up the number of free months and keep the rent at the higher rate.

"...The vacancy rate ended the year at 8%, the highest level since Reis Inc., a New York research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets, began its tally in 1980....

...In New York City, the vacancy rate improved by 0.1 percentage point for the second straight quarter, but around 60% of rental buildings dropped their rents in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. Effective rents -- which include concessions such as one month of free rent -- fell 5.6% in New York last year, the worst since Reis began tracking the data in 1990..."

from "U.S. Now a Renters' Market"

Clear-cut data - the OP is wrong.

http://customsites.yahoo.com/financiallyfit/finance/article-108528-3738-2-us-now-a-renters-market?ywaad=ad0035

Free months are to renters as tax abatements and ARMs are to owners. So think about after the first year.

"Free months are to renters as tax abatements and ARMs are to owners. So think about after the first year."

1) renters have shorter time horizens in many cases. especially when youn & single
2) In my case I got 3 months on a 26 month lease, (second, 13th, 26th) and a maximum increase of 5% in year 3 should I renew. So this a material length of time.
4) even if I were buying, a 20 year tax abatement (such as you might see in Harlem) is 20 years of thousands in lower taxes. Thousands EVVERY YEAR. That is nothing to poo-poo.

> Clear-cut data - the OP is wrong

so surprising.

What does it say when the bullish posts are simply made up.

"4) even if I were buying, a 20 year tax abatement (such as you might see in Harlem) is 20 years of thousands in lower taxes. Thousands EVVERY YEAR. That is nothing to poo-poo."

That's assuming that you get in on year 1 of the abatement and you get out well before the abatement expires.

We negotiated an 11.3% decrease for 2/1/2010 renewal, very nice rent stabilized doorman bldg on the upper west side. Our neighbor negotiated his renewal earlier 4/1/2009, he got a 17.6% decrease. The issue with him, was he was gettng fleeced the last 4 years. We both have identical units and now we're both at the same monthly rate. I think apartment rents are going up for those who don't know how to negotiate well.

Did you not read the NewYork Times?