New Listings

In a recent discussion about sellers being "cranky", I had the same question. Urbandigs responded that new listings should arrive on the market in February. Personally, I'm hoping for even earlier than that, but I was afraid that sellers might wait until early spring. Also Babsie had a similar discussion a few days ago- if you want to search the discussions. This is clearly a topic on the minds of all buyers.

Interesting that there's inventory of 8k+, and buyers are anxious for new listings

i think buyers dont like the current inventory and looking for some fresh listings...although im sure they will all be overpriced and if they come out in feb...wont be properly priced till the summer..if that

2010 should be interesting.

Eastside, look for Feb/Mar as banks will have to up the pressure. Remember that a lot of those new condos were "investor" market driven. If investors are going to return, it's going to be hard to convince them to buy something with a negative cash return(14 times rent roll +).

Keep a close eye on the rental market.
It has to actually stabilize before anyone can declare an actual bottom, which has to predate an actual bottom in the sales market.

"As the housing crisis has deepened, the national shadow inventory has grown, according to appraiser Jonathan Miller, head of Miller Samuel. Miller described this glut of residential properties as either under construction or newly completed but not officially up for sale because the sales have stalled. "In many cases the developer was unable to sell the initial block of units offered and is therefore unable to release the units behind them," he explained. This inventory can be dangerous to contend with, according to Miller, because it's been largely unchanged by the recent uptick in residential activity. "Even with the surge in activity over the past several months, total inventory hasn't changed all that much," Miller said"

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/residential-activity-leaves-shadow-inventory-largely-unchanged-miller-says

truthskr10, what do you think about properties which are not new developments? Will sellers also put these apartments on the market in February/March?

This may be of interest - its a list of corcoran listings that are no more than 14 days old.

http://www.corcoran.com/property/latestlistings.aspx?Region=NYC&FP=NL&SRType=S

Lobster
That is by far the hardest question to answer. "Old" real estate has a dilemna. Between new purchases and refi's over the last 3 years, a very large chunk of that group is underwater (more mortgage than the price they can get for it today).
So if someone has an apartment they bought or refinanced an amount of let's say 1,000,000. And the market will only bear 800,000. That means they have to cut a 200,000 check to the bank the day they sell it, plus a check to the broker for their commission. If you are that person, you won't sell. You will scratch around and wait as long as you can until a)the market comes back b)hope for a sucker who pays your ask c) rent it for an amount enough to cover yor bills and go out and rent a smaller place for your own use (not an easy task) d) a short sale (also easier said then done) e)forclosure/bankruptcy

I expect these conditions will continue to saturate the rental market. And don't forget that a substancial loss of sales inventory for '09 went to the rental market in hopes of a better 2010.

Thanks for that very good explanation. It does make alot of sense. Real estate is much less complicated when you get such a clear explanation. Happy holidays and happy new year to you and yours.

Lobster
Happy and safe holidays to you and your as well.

I'm happy my post may have made things easier to assess for you.
There are of course many other variables involved but the points I laid out will have to be addressed if the market remains as is.

I think also my points will help explain what is going on when you see an ad for an "old" apartment for an example 1,500,000.
with a Streeteasy history showing
sold 2007 1,200,000.
What's going on here is the seller bought it for 1,200,000. Paid some 50K in closing costs and taxes.
Will have to pay commission(another 50K?)on the hopeful 1.4mm sale hoping 100K was enough wiggle room.
And come out with 100K to help situate their finacial woes that forced them to sell.

Truthskr10, you should author an introduction for RE novice buyers. Very good explanations for us buyers.

Nah Lobster, I'm just a run of the mill scorpio that needs to know what makes things or people tick.
:)
And my opinion is just that, an opinion. Have no hard facts to back up but it is just what I consider simple math.

And just remember, if a bank is not willing to loan you 70 to 80% of that property price with normal job and credit history, the bank thinks it's worth less than your paying.

I'm a cancer so we're both water signs. Any suggestions for a book for me to read as a novice RE buyer.

No books will be updated enough. And NYC is a market unto itself --- it operates quite differently from the rest of the U.S. real estate transactions. You basically just need to read sites like these, talk to lots of people, make sure you have a good real estate attorney, and pick the brains of all your coop owning friends. And condo owning friends. But most owners in NYC are coop owners .....

Try http://search.barnesandnoble.com/New-York-Co-op-Bible/Sylvia-Shapiro/e/9780312340759/

Thanks NWT. I think that MMarquez recommended that book as well. I will order it. Happy holidays to you and yours.