UD inventory below 8,000 - discuss.

am I catching this right... that property got cut more than half off the old sale price in 2008?

It's more wish list, new development, pre crash price, hurry up and buy a similar unit before it's gone
listing that got parked in shadow inventory, please can I get some light lisitng.

So, it never actually sold at the $2.75, I'm assuming....? It just went into contract when listed at that price.... so what was the actual price it sold at?

It never sold at any point!
And I contend it was never truly in contract at any point.

It's a shilling!

Definition Shilling- An in contract Listing designed to create false action in a building/market to promote other listings.

"This February in contract DID NOT go to your NEW contract figures for february because it's treated as an old one. "

Yes...eliminating DUPES is very easy to do and took no time. That was done 7 months ago. Yet we needed 7 more months to clean the data. You can imagine all the scenarios we had to deal with. Its neverending and insanely tedious. Brokers should update their listing as often as possible, when they do a record and history is created. We get those updates 7x a day. So you can imagine how much data there is. Then we need to properly account for everything. Gets tricky when you have messed up status changes that we dont know how to interpret.

Say a listing status changes daily from ACTIVE to CS to POM to CS to ACTIVE over and over and over again? Which is it? Sometimes a listing does go from ACTIVE to CS and then to ACTIVE again...that is the difficult part and only one situation. There are 100s of scenarios.

That is why data will never be 100% perfect

> And I contend it was never truly in contract at any point.

Ah, i missed the earlier piece. Just lies about the contracts.

Noah, I can only partially imagine. I've dug into many listings here and know the time it takes to get to the proper info, especially when cross referencing acris info.

I think every listing eventually should have a contract file with parameters to keep them in accurate standing. Or like rf chips in products.
Some kind of industry standard.
Maybe some protocols that have time lapses,requiring updates every 30 days by the broker or the listing dies.

rebny system has that...every 14 days the listing is supposed to be updated..if its not, it changes color upon search queries by rebny firms + the listing agent usually is clearly alerted to it and may not be able to use internal system until they update it. but that doesnt mean the listing is still not active. so you can have a ACTIVE listing, not updated in 20 days, but still active. 30 days, 45 days, 150 days, etc..you get picture.

one of the 100s of situations I mention is hot to properly count ACTIVE inventory. what rules do you place? What about OFF MARKET. I cant give our study findings and rules here, as we put too much time and money into it for calculating metrics the way we feel they should be calculated. but we feel its the right way, and we are still tweaking it...but yes, we can use a better broker platform in general

It sounds like you are tackling them as they hit you, kudos. It just means I will place more value on your figures than others.

As I can't get in or have never used the rebny system, I don't know their procedures. It appears streeteasy will have a lot of work to do make the system tighter.
One suggestion ot rebny if they are interested in keeping the brokers in check would be to give after 14 days, the change color warning for 10 days. And after that it moves to INACTIVE ...period.
It's one thing for an agent not to be able to go in, but to have no one else see the listing? That's motivation.
It's maybe harsh? I don't think so. Not just brokers, anyone will let lazy bones prevail if the atmosphere permits.
It's a diservice to the seller they are representing.

i hear you! yes, that perhaps is what they need and after screwing up, would motivate agents and brokerage firms to put more weight on carrying well maintained listings..but at what cost? Thats the rub...this costs money to do and there is a lack ofmotivation to do it because it doesnt make money, it costs money to enforce.

per Noah's widget the new "lower" inventory number.... is 8600. Up 8.4% since January.

"cost money to enforce" yeah... i just put a JD in my resume... hell why not a Harvard BS, JD, MBA, MD... now we're talking, why bother actually applying, getting in and all that stuff.. .let's just put it up there and let the my "future" boss be aware!

"i hear you! yes, that perhaps is what they need and after screwing up, would motivate agents and brokerage firms to put more weight on carrying well maintained listings..but at what cost? Thats the rub...this costs money to do and there is a lack ofmotivation to do it because it doesnt make money, it costs money to enforce."

I think some sort of 3rd party tech solution is warranted, and we might already be there.

Take a streeteasy, taking the data feed of the broker apartments. Imagine if folks could rate the listing, put some sort of flag on it.

Coupon sites do this... "did this coupon work for you?"

you might need to require only registered users can flag.... and you can even do the imdb/slashdot trick.... where your flags get rated... or folks who flag things that noone else agreed with get lower scoring.

Or hell, just notes at the bottom!

once the feedback starts collecting, it might be hard.

streeteasy, how about it? Let there be comments specifically on a listing!

somewhereelse

"New inventory #"

Actually I don't think so,unless I'm wrong, the new widget figures are not up on UD yet. Just 7 days ago it was 7833 from a tally of when the old/original widget was showing 8466.

"urbandigs
7 days ago
I have active inventory in my beta site at 7,833 listings...just to add one more metric to the fire. We spent a looong time though focusing only on data accuracy and how to correctly measure these new data tools I will soon launch"

Today it's at 8555. And if it were the new widget, that would mean real adjusted inventory went up 722 in one week.

You can already attach comments to any listing.

Inventory always spikes up in January. The question is whether it's spiking more than usual. The answer is: not by much. Look at Jonathan Miller's latest post on Curbed -- titled "Manhattan Inventory Changes Are Wildly Consistent."

And here's a sample. It's actually quite the rabbit hole.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/437635-condo-90-sullivan-street-soho-new-york

Scroll to the bottom where it says "discussions" and you have a thread that poster links other discusssions on the same listing.

I have ACTIVE at 8,003, up from 7,833 7 days ago

wish you guys can see the LISTING DAYS ON MARKET trend this past 12 months...its QUITE telling.

Noah it sounds like you've weeded out some roughly 500 listings out of the inventory.

It may cause havoc on any quartely or longer term graph of inventory figures. How will you reconcile the adjustment factor in things like a yearly graph?

> Inventory always spikes up in January.

You know its February, right?

"Scroll to the bottom where it says "discussions" and you have a thread that poster links other discusssions on the same listing."

Yeah, it shouldn't be a thread on the discussion board.

I mean comments that are limited to that specific listing alone, and don't show on the regular board.

somewhereelse
2 minutes ago
ignore this person
Inventory always spikes up in January.

You know its February, right?

There is a definite effort by brokerage houses to be careful about saturating the invetory figures in the system. They are aware people are paying attention to these numbers.
Traditionally Mondays were the heaviest "new listings" day which since the new year has shifted to Thursday and Friday with open houses that same weekend.
Inventory should steadily climb for the next 2 months easy.

>Yeah, it shouldn't be a thread on the discussion board.

Well it gets even more coverage that way. The problem is that it's on the poster to have the foresight to attach it to the listing.

Oh, you're right, we're a week into February. That clearly undermines my point.

we had to do our adjustments, measurements, rules, and algos first...then we had to pre-compute this for over 18,000,000 status updates for over 186,000 listing records...our longer term chartings are accurate based on data we have access to. that is what we have been doing for 8 months basically in stages.

> Oh, you're right, we're a week into February. That clearly undermines my point.

Yes, given that the two feb slots represent a substantial increase over January, I'd say so.

200 new listings or so net in the last week, according to what Noah said above. I'm not sure this counts as a "substantial increase," especially relative to other years. It certainly isn't the giant pile-on that many people on this board were predicting generally. And if you look at Noah's charts on his live site the rate of new listings is already starting to flatten out. Which is not to say we're going to end up with average inventory -- I just don't see anything to suggest that we'll end up with inventory numbers like last year's, given that things actually seem to be moving this spring.

"How much does rent cost while you wait 1, 2, 3... 5 yrs in anticipation of those last few points of correction? How much additional correction do you need in order to make the wait worthwhile?"

None, as carry costs are greater than rent and transaction costs need to be amortized. Owners 'need' appreciation to make the ownership worthwhile.

inventory up 12% or so in last 5-6 weeks...ehh, its notable, nothing crazy...sales still holding up

Noah,I was thinking specifically on your inventory graphs. Let's say 2.0 went up yesterday. So now the accurate inventory figure is 8003(accurate active). The day before it was 8555(UD 1.0). In your 3 month six month, yearly graphs there is going to be a need for some adjustment somewhere to reflect the change in computation. I asssume you'll refrain from using the steroid asterisk. :)

"200 new listings or so net in the last week, according to what Noah said above. I'm not sure this counts as a "substantial increase," especially relative to other years."

Yes, a 12% increase. Wow, you are trying SO HARD to downplay it. What's your game? You a broker?

No, 200 on top of 7800 (inventory a week ago as per Noah's post above) is 2%.

And no, not a broker, and no real financial ties to the industry. Just having fun. IMO the inventory numbers so far this year contradict the worst bear case -- which was that inventory would be out of control this spring.

"inventory up 12% or so in last 5-6 weeks"
- Noah

Wow, miette, you really are trying to hard to cover up the facts....

> Just having fun.

By playing dumb?

> contradict the worst bear case -- which was that inventory would be out of control this spring.

Funny thing is, I don't think you could have done a better job of making the bear case if you tried. Your attemps at misdirection were fairly transparent.

That you felt you needed to cover up the numbers just shows you weren't very comfortable with your case.

Read my post again: "200 new listings or so net in the last week, according to what Noah said above." You then said 200 new listings was a 12% increase. I merely corrected you. What facts am I covering up?

And, btw, my specifying the inventory increase in the past week was in response to your original contention that inventory was "up 8.4% since January." Well, no, it was up 2% since January. Who's covering up facts?

> was a 12% increase. I merely corrected you

You corrected that 12% wasn't 12%. Got it.

Listen, you're pretty transparent. No need to repeat yourself. We got that.

And this was the line you responded to...

> Yes, given that the two feb slots represent a substantial increase over January, I'd say so.

Yet, you tried to correct by leaving out the first jump, and only looking at the second increase.

Again, pretty transparent.

> Yes, given that the two feb slots represent a substantial increase over January, I'd say so.

Wow, so this is now the second time you thought February was January. Or, tell me, which months are Feb 1 and Feb 8 in?

January?

lol

I think that shows a certain amount of peace in one's life....lunch? dinner? Wednesday..Saturday?...Jan? Feb? who cares mon!

This is getting stupid. But even if you start at January 25, inventory is only up 4% since then (according to Noah's online charts). Where are you getting a 12% rise in inventory since January (i.e., in February)? When you answer that question you can feel free to make fun of me.

Miette, don't waste your time - you're dealing with a known curmudgeon and blatant fact-twister. The point is, yes inventory has gone up a good amount since the New Year, and yes, the trend seems to be flattening out a bit so far in February. While it's definitely nowhere near some of the crazier predictions I've seen, there's definitely more out there, though if Noah's correct, things are still selling pretty well. Not sure how long that lasts though.

miette
I guess you don't give much creedence to shadow inventory.

Just came across this little building and was surprised to see it was a macklowe property.
Its five units that are now advertising three of the spaces for rent. Ridiculously low rents I may add.
Do you think they are also for sale?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/333-west-16-street-new_york

Ok, lets just understand a few things here because some are getting confused by seeing a reponse without seeing the setup from an earlier comment.

First my data source is different than what is currently powering the widget on UD right now. The widget on UD right now is powered by STREETEASY! SE has their own sources and methods of obtaining their data on Manhattan listings. They also get direct feeds from brokers, some REBNY members others likely that may not be. So, SE will likely have broader coverage if they include NON-REBNY brokers. In addition, I do NOT control the rules and algos and formulas that SE used to clean the data, account for all the mess/errors/crazy things brokers do with their listing status..Also, I do NOT control what query rules they put in place to account for what they consider to be ACTIVE listings.

So much goes into that, its not worth going into again here now. I simply dont control it, SE does. SE simply asked what I want to show, and how I want to show it, and some basic rules, and they sent me over a data widget to install on UrbanDigs...That is what you see. Then I had a chart programmer, clearly a bad choice, that designed the charts you currently see on UD! I hate them, and I wonder if the math and formulas are even accurate. In a nutshell, I wanted a direct source of data and I wanted my own team that I have known for 10 years to build the system the way I think it should be built.

A) those programmers were NOT available for this project until mid 2009
B) I wasn't able to get a direct data source with REBNY broker shared listings until mid 2009

In that sense, everything lined up for me, I left Halstead, UrbanDigs became a REBNY member broker and its own firm, and it took weeks to setup the proper distribution platform to get in real time the data we needed to build what we wanted to build. After 30 days, my team said, "Ugh, Noah this is a complete mess, I am not sure how confident we will be until we put tons of more work into this"...After 75 days, my team said, "Noah, this is going to take another 2-4 months"...After 150 days, they said "Noah we are getting somewhere"...After 180 days, I was told we are confident enough now in data that we can build what I want to build. Then it took another 1-2 months of cleaning and filtering, etc.., and figuring out how each metric should be calculated for charts/stat tables. Every metric is different because every LAST UPDATED is different. What constitues ACTIVE if listing was not updated for 14 days, 28 days, 45 days, etc..? What constitutes PERM OFF MARKET if its been off market for 4 month, 8 months, 2 years?? Etc...every metric has its own rules/algos after studies we have done that we feel properly calculates what it should for the best picture of that trend.

Now, this system is on a backend server. Two teams working. One building db platform and how the whole system will work for users, the other team designing and coding all subpages. I am looking at these charts/trends/stats. When I say inventory is up 12%, its because I have inventory right now at 7,992 right now, up from about 7,090 or so about 4 weeks ago. You can do the exact math on the %..I was estimated real quick.

All Im focused on now is properly figuring out how each metric should be counted, and finishing filtering out the noise and flaws that come with direct source to broker sharing system. I know its hard for you guys, because I say one thing and you look at my site and see another. But I have not looked at my sites data or charts in about 3-4 months when we finally got data high enough quality to move on to building the platform. That to me was most important before proceeding. Its been a long haul. Soon enough it will all be avail to you and you will see what I have spent all this time and money on

Let me give you guys an example of the complexity of the issue using SE, and these guys did a great job cleaning up the data

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/995-5-avenue-new_york

Notice, the duplicates? Then notice the same unit ACTIVE that is IN CONTRACT. Then notice the same unit ACTIVE that is NO LONGER ON MARKET? Well, which is it? I now understand why these things happen, that most people just dont understand because you guys dont see how the sharing systems work and the mess they are in and how much work is needed to fix the 100s of situations that cause these types of problems. Figuring out what it should be is a huge undertaking! This is just one building. There were literally hundreds of examples I found over my spot checks from last 6 months..my job was to find the errors, so my team can fix them one by one. So tedious, but Im ecstatic with where my team is now.

> This is getting stupid.

Yes, as soon as you showed up. Congrats!

> But even if you start at January 25, inventory is only up 4% since then
> (according to Noah's online charts). Where are you getting a 12% rise in inventory since January
> (i.e., in February)? When you answer that question you can feel free to make fun of me.

The 12% is a quote from Noah, from above. I pasted it in for you. The guy you say you got your numbers from said it.

Too easy!

and, wow, that pimple is back. the pimple can't seem to stay away.

> miette
> I guess you don't give much creedence to shadow inventory.

Now when one really, really, REALLY wants the opposite to come true.

Noah said 12% in the past 5-6 weeks. You said 12% "since January" -- i.e., in the past week or so. That's a huge difference in rate. (And I made no comment denying there was shadow inventory, which there clearly is.) I just think if you're going to throw around a bunch of statistics you ought to make an effort to be precise and accurate.

> You said 12% "since January"

no, i didn't. Now you're just lying!

MY, MY, do you have trouble with the facts.

"and, wow, that pimple is back. the pimple can't seem to stay away."

Get some clearasil or learn to actually respond to arguments. Your shtick is way old. I'm trying to push the conversation along and you're just whining? Get over it.

"Noah said 12% in the past 5-6 weeks. You said 12% "since January" -- i.e., in the past week or so"

He said 8.4% actually, but yes, that math is still way wrong. And he's going nuts now that you've called him on it. As usual. Accuracy is not his forte.

pimple, stop pretending you have an interest in honest debate... I know you just want to follow me around all day.

First he said 8.4%. Then, in responding to a post of mine (quoted first), he said:

"200 new listings or so net in the last week, according to what Noah said above. I'm not sure this counts as a "substantial increase," especially relative to other years."

"Yes, a 12% increase. Wow, you are trying SO HARD to downplay it. What's your game? You a broker?"

So whatever. Either way he's off by at least 50% of the actual rate of increase since the end of January.

Since the headline here is about inventory,...and admittedly not following the details of these arcane discussions..can I ask:

How much of the "inventory" 8000 or whatever number here is new development? If you add in all the new development either complete or complete within say 2010 (sometimes people say 8000 i believe), how much would the number go up? Is the stock of new development complete by end of 2010 considered a mega number, moderate number or whatever relative to normal transactions in the market? i.e., is it a big enough tail to wag the dog?...Finally...i dont really get the point of any discussion that doesn't include the new dev numbers...

> First he said 8.4%.

And it was correct, off the Jan low. You just were too slow to catch that!

> Then, in responding to a post of mine (quoted first), he said

Yes, when you then tried to pull in Noah to support your nonsensical claim, I pointed out that he specifically said 12% increase!

My, my, you are just digging yourself a deeper and deeper whole.

First you tried to rationalize with "Inventory always spikes up in January" (except its not January)
Then you tried to change the time period, comparing Feb numbers to... February! (that was especially my favorite).
Then you try to use "evidence" from Noah, where the paragraph says 12%!

I love it!

"How much of the "inventory" 8000 or whatever number here is new development? If you add in all the new development either complete or complete within say 2010 (sometimes people say 8000 i believe), how much would the number go up? Is the stock of new development complete by end of 2010 considered a mega number, moderate number or whatever relative to normal transactions in the market? i.e., is it a big enough tail to wag the dog?...Finally...i dont really get the point of any discussion that doesn't include the new dev numbers..."

not to mention shadow inventory...

btw, in terms of inventory, looks like it went up another 100 this week (since my last look).

Must be Miette's "January Effect"

lol.

and in terms of the claimed "January effect", turns out it was just one more load of crap from Miette...

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168399259Jmtnq&Record=12

Jan '04 was one month off the BOTTOM in inventory levels
Jan '05, higher than the Dec low, but way below the previous months
Jan '06, not a lot of movement, then inventory takes off in the months after
Jan '07, inventory way lower than previous months, then it dips further
Jan '08, inventory takes off AFTER January.

So, looks like all her huffing and puffing, Miette's entire line was based on a crock of baloney.

My post that spurred all this "discussion" stated that, as of yesterday, inventory had gone up by about 200 or so in the past week. You then started quoting all sorts of percentages spanning a far longer time period -- 5 or 6 weeks as far as I can tell. Why is the distinction between what I was talking about and the percentages you were quoting so difficult for you to grasp?

You think its January, you think "5-6 weeks" and "3 weeks" are each "one week", you misquite, and and your statistic skills are nonexistent... and you're trying to call me out for my lack of "grasp".

I love it. Classic.

And you're lying AGAIN. The post that started the discussion wasn't your 200, that was your REPONSE, which was nonsensical. You clearly misunderstood what you were responding to, and have been trying to cover that and the actual truth since. And the same exact thing happened to Noah's post.

You make these ridiculous mistakes, and then try to blame everyone else.

Sorry, honey, its January. Buy a calendar and a calculator.

According to your chart, inventory goes up every January. My original point was that inventory always goes up in January, and that you have to look at the difference between any given year and previous years to know if you're seeing a meaningful trend. And yes, it goes up even further later in the spring! Every year! Same point as to drawing conclusions from that increase.

> According to your chart, inventory goes up every January

Wow, you can't even read a chart!

Those lines, when they get SMALLER... that means LOWER.

rotfl.

It could just be my worsening eyesight, but all but one of the January lines in the chart look higher than the preceding December lines to me.

"stop pretending you have an interest in honest debate... I know you just want to follow me around all day."

Still whining? Yikes. And all the huffing and puffing over Miette's post, even though you're clearly the one with a stats/reading comprehension problem. Maybe you should stop pretending you know what you're talking about (and many people have called you on this; was hoping you'd catch on).

Anyway, the story here is inventory is up. Remains to be seen if it's more than a seasonal trend - frankly, no one knows the answer to that right now. Can we move on? Thanks.

wow, you're still following me around and whining!

I love it!

And you're the guy who used to whine when I responded to your posts!

You just whine all day... you must love it, because here you are... following me around all day!

You will allways be... the Hypocrite Hall Monitor! With a badge and everything.

Whine, whine, whine, all day long! Whine when you get responses! Whine when you don't!

Whine, whine, whine!

"It could just be my worsening eyesight, but all but one of the January lines in the chart look higher than the preceding December lines to me. "

Well, then its your logic *and* your eyesight. At least you've admitted the problem.

Jesus - you're touchy. Name calling does nothing to hide the fact that you can't read the damn chart (the very one you provided!). Miette was absolutely correct: inventory has gone up every January save for one since 2003. But you're just going to lie, distort, deflect, and obfuscate again, aren't you? You're totally clueless.

I'm touchy, i love it!

The guy who CRIED and BEGGED me not to respond to his posts. Whines that I needed to put him on ignore.

I love it!

really, bjw, for all your whining and hollering.

You can't even PRETEND to be taking the high road when all you do is follow me around!

Sorry, you can hump my leg all day, I won't be your friend. Find someone else who cares.

I maybe respond to a fraction of your posts - you have a complex that that's "following you around." You just post a lot of bad information and try to ram your mistake-laden agenda down people's throats. And obviously can't stand a little feet to the fire, especially when you seemingly have no answer or have to resort to lying. I don't care what you do with regard to my posts - I only suggested that if they bother you so much, you should ignore. You've obviously chosen to whine ad nauseum instead.

whine, whine, whine. keep trolling, bjw.

"I don't care what you do with regard to my posts - I only suggested that if they bother you so much, you should ignore."

and yet another lie.

You BEGGED AND CRIED for me to stop responding!

They didn't bother me at all. They bothered YOU.

My my, the hall monitor just can't take it!

you are a troll and a hypocrite.

I'm not sure what is so sad about your life that you need to tack onto mine.
Really. You post and post, try and get me to respond, over and over again.

And then you try and pretend you don't.

We all know your game, bjw. I'm sorry you don't have anything better to do, but don't pretend. We have it in black and white.

I don't follow this, so maybe I'm missing something ....

- given that "inventory" is inherently subject to fluctuation and distortion for myriad reasons, seller strategy holding off market, seller pulling from market, stupid prices that will never sell, or whatever, isn't a more important "hard" number the actual number of closings to get a (non-price) gauge of the market health?
- isn't the other fairly "hard" number the number of new dev units available now or in the pipeline?

- and if you insist on discussing inventory of units offered for sale, as a gauge of market health how can it be logical to not include all new development whether formally listed yet or not?

just a thought

"You BEGGED AND CRIED for me to stop responding!"

Wow, you sensationalize and lie yet again!

"They didn't bother me at all. They bothered YOU."

My posts bothered me? Hilarious. Again, I'll post as I see fit. If it bothers you, ignore. But you seem to enjoy the attention. Let's just move on - I'm sure you'll complain again at some point soon anyway.

"isn't a more important "hard" number the actual number of closings to get a (non-price) gauge of the market health? "

jim, I agree actual volume of sales is always significant (something which has been denied by my "friend" on this thread here). To get a more complete picture of market health, you need both pricing and volume. Inventory is also helpful, but not as crucial (since an understanding of it is priced into where sales are actually happening at the moment, although I have to admit, it's pretty hazy in NYC), unless you're privy to information about a boatload of units that are coming to the market in the near future.

"isn't the other fairly "hard" number the number of new dev units available now or in the pipeline?
- and if you insist on discussing inventory of units offered for sale, as a gauge of market health how can it be logical to not include all new development whether formally listed yet or not?"

Definitely include all that's really for sale, whether listed or not. That's pretty much what I was shooting for on that Williamsburg inventory thread.

> "You BEGGED AND CRIED for me to stop responding!"
> Wow, you sensationalize and lie yet again!

Nope, spot on.

> "They didn't bother me at all. They bothered YOU."
> My posts bothered me? Hilarious.

Yes, I thought that was pretty funny, too. And quite sad.

> But you seem to enjoy the attention. Let's just move on

I see, follow me around, then tell *me* to move on.

Ha, sure.

Dude, if you REALLY wanted to move on, you'd stop following me around.

Seriously.

Until you stop trolling, all your claims of the high road and "moving on" are just hillarious.

If you really want to move on, DO IT.

Until then, we'll know you as the hypocrite you are.

Yeah, got
- I'm sure you'll complain again at some point soon anyway.

"and if you insist on discussing inventory of units offered for sale, as a gauge of market health how can it be logical to not include all new development whether formally listed yet or not?"

I think so.

But, I also think the true measure of the market is... the market. And pricing has spoken volumes. It seems as though folks who don't like what the pricing says are trying to say that other measures mean something else.

But we have had low volumes, and lower prices. Their higher volumes, and lower prices. Point is, a lot of lower prices.

To be clear, I think that obviously PRICE is the THE most important. I was just contrasting what type of non-price barometers are useful.

"I see, follow me around, then tell *me* to move on."

"Let's" actually refers to the both of us. But you're distorting things and hyperventilating so much, it's insane. I see your angle - portray me as "following you around" so I'll never respond to any of your posts and you can toot your horn all day. Not gonna happen.

"Until then, we'll know you as the hypocrite you are."

Once again, who's the "we" you speak for? Get over yourself. You were blatantly wrong on this inventory issue but can't admit it and resort to insults. Enough.

jim, you've got it right. Price is hugely important, but a full market perspective requires more than just that. I don't know why it's supposedly so hard to look at several things at once and a few people seem to get paranoid if one tries to discuss multiple things at once - it's not skirting the issue; it's trying to engage in deeper analysis. These "some folks don't like what the pricing says" arguments just reek of an agenda to me, which really hurts the discussion. But I guess you could tell we don't get along in the first place, huh?

I knew it, whine, whine, say "move on", and still posting and posting and repeating yourself, and not moving on. Clearly you CAN'T move on

I'm sure you'll keep whining and whining and following me around. Enjoy your sweet life!