market movement with comps, new development resales

Which proves what? That buyers who hold a property for only one year are exposed a significant risk of taking a loss on the sale? That should be a given.

news flash...the market is down from january of 2007...

and your 30% number is ridiculous. There is a $ value to living there, If they didn't live there they would presumably rent an equal place someplace else. Say to rent that place costs $10,000 a month (purely a guess) the owners lived in the first unit for 20 months = $200,000. essentially they lost their assumed transaction costs and 5% of principal. Not all that bad, considering they top ticked the purchase and sold into the lowest point thus far....

Not quite that simple, they also paid maintenance and taxes. That would cover about half the rent. So only 100k of that is a fair analysis.

your right patient....but part of those expenses are tax deductible...we can go on and on....what I'm trying to say is that sale was not down 30%

I smell what your cookin

Here is another - The Crest - on the Park Slope / Gowanus border

302 2nd St (The Crest) http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/487668-condo-302-2nd-street-park-slope-brooklyn

StreetEasy History

06/11/2007 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $579,000.
01/15/2009 No longer available. Last priced at $509,000.
01/29/2009 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $509,000.
03/18/2009 Corcoran Listing sold.
03/18/2009 Sale recorded for $458,100
01/08/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $525,000.

200 Chambers St - Tribecca.

21B: 5/14/07 Bought from Sponsor $1.735,000
21B 10/13/09 Buyer sold for $1,550,000

This original buyer bought early in the developments history. This comp may be more problematic for 22B,23B,24B, 25B, 26B 27B which all bought between $1,830,000 and $1,950,000 as prices went up in the building.

"The last 11 owners to sell their luxury condos at the Plaza Hotel sold them at a loss, including the owner of Apartment 409, which sold for $8.5 million less than it cost 16 months before..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/18/nyregion/18plaza.html?hpw

I guess Plaza is a new re-dev resale, not strictly new dev, but I think close enough for purposes of this thread

4 West 21st Street #14D
09/27/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,985,587.
08/19/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $1,795,000.
11/10/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/12/2010 Sale recorded for $1,595,000.

One thing to keep in mind about these resales is that the original sponsor sales may be inflated by various concessions - even outright kickbacks - that don't show up in the price. Most of these resales are probably every bit as disastrous as they look. But some may be distorted by manipulation of the reporting on the original sale.

4 West 21st Street #7B
07/05/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,650,000.
09/09/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $1,699,000.
10/10/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,595,000.
12/11/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/08/2010 Sale recorded for $1,450,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/457065-condop-4-west-21st-street-flatiron-new-york

ugghhhh...thats gotta hurt

west 81-- very good point, and happens all the time

Not sure this is exactly new development (2006 occupancy and a condo conversion/redevelopment), but it was priced as new dev back in the day for sure. Anyway, here goes:

100 West 58th Street (Windsor Park). Most of the original developer sales closed early 2006 to mid-2007. Rest of 2007 and into 2008 was a handful of developer sales and a bunch of flips (including profitable flips by some of the Elliman brokers who marketed the building), but the developer still held a lot when the sh*t hit the fan, evan after cutting prices on a few sales in 2008. It's too much work to post all the units that the developer dumped in the last six months, but just consider the following to be a capitulation tasting menu. I'm not sure that the entire line is the same floor plan in every case, but at a minimum most of these are comps.

12/17/2009 #10G $999,000
03/30/2006 #12G $1,378,000
02/15/2006 #6G $1,215,000
02/03/2006 #5G $1,224,000
02/01/2006 #4G $1,202,000

11/11/2009 #13C $1,325,000
07/17/2008 #9C $1,420,000
10/10/2006 #12C $1,603,743
03/27/2006 #2C $1,676,039
03/23/2006 #14C $1,823,000
03/13/2006 #9C $1,815,000
03/10/2006 #10C $1,750,000

08/31/2009 #10F $1,150,000
08/17/2009 #13F $1,175,000
07/31/2009 #11F $1,100,000
01/14/2008 #8F $1,625,000
08/09/2007 #7F $1,600,000
08/08/2006 #14F $1,725,000
02/28/2006 #9F $1,632,000

10/16/2009 #14I $1,300,000
09/16/2009 #13I $1,275,000
04/17/2006 #15I $2,000,000

Sorry, meant to post this on the new dev sponsor sales comps thread, not resales.

to cpalms and gator, this (new development resales) is a market very resistant to downward pressure in NYC. it takes a long time for foreclosures, short sales are also a negative credit experience so there's little to no incentive for it.

if the new development occurred in 2004ish or earlier, you'll see movement. if later, if you're seeing movement now it is meaningful. it's not just market movement, it's market motility as well. obviously people don't take an outright loss easily, including transaction costs.

and my 30% number was not at all ridiculous. counting transaction costs alone the in and out costs of new development are approximately 15%. any reduction in principal must be added. unless you'd argue that they'd have been paying more to rent.

West81st, is 4 west 21st St a land lease? I saw an apartment in that building and I think there is a parking lot across the street that was scheduled to be replaced by a high rise building. I think many owners were hoping to escape the noise and diminished light.

once a purchase has been made, why would the reluctance to take a loss, time to foreclosure , etc be any different whether it was new dev or not....

jim, do the numbers. 58% of all sales in 2006 were condo, most of those were new construction. reluctance to take a loss is not unique to new construction. the amount of loss available in new construction is greater. more inflated prices due to easy credit (10% down). this is where the dam will break.

40 Mercer

One up...
09/03/2009 #4 $3,812,500
03/15/2007 #4 $3,500,000

One down...
09/14/2009 #2 $4,220,000
04/11/2007 #2 $4,500,000

...one way down
03/03/2010 #9 $1,750,000
03/16/2007 #9 $2,350,000

These follow some epic flips that got out just under the Lehman wire:

08/28/2008 #32 $8,300,000
05/17/2007 #32 $5,825,000

07/31/2008 #33 $6,850,000
06/20/2007 #33 $4,900,000

05/13/2008 #39 $7,425,000
07/12/2007 #39 $5,275,000

11 East 29th (Sky House). I had never heard of this building before.

#10A
03/24/2010 $1,560,000
02/05/2008 $1,669,930

#24B is in contract with a last ask below original cost.
02/22/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $1,053,888.
01/12/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,125,000.
02/13/2010 Price decreased by 12% to $995,000.
03/10/2010 Listing entered contract

The other four listing are all resales asking above original basis. Good luck with that.

Developer closed a bunch of units last summer and fall. Not clear whether those were old contracts that finally closed a year after the rest of the building (this is my guess but without much evidence to support it) or the developer was clearing unsold inventory. Also not sure what, if anything the developer still holds. No developer sales are listed, in any case.

Importing this one from a West81st post on the UES comps thread:

450 East 83rd Street #18C: Equity wipeout on a 2BR/2.5BA at the Cielo.
06/04/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $2,026,317. (Mortgage of $1,585,600)
06/08/2009 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $2,100,000.
08/12/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,900,000.
11/11/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $1,875,000.
02/18/2010 Listing entered contract.
04/01/2010 Sale recorded for $1,600,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/418861-condo-450-east-83rd-street-yorkville-new-york

Down 13%+ in two years, plus the "furnishings and art" included in the sale: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/493597-condo-240-park-avenue-south-flatiron-new-york

03/30/2007 Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $2,725,000.
03/27/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $2,774,731. (from sponsor)
02/02/2010 Listed by Mocan and Associates at $2,700,000.
02/06/2010 Also Listed by Bellmarc at $2,700,000.
04/07/2010 Bellmarc Listing entered contract.
04/29/2010 Sale recorded for $2,425,000.

So the point of all this cutting and pasting of listings is the following: the market fell from '07 highs! News flash: this is old news. What does this have to say about prices going forward? Not a thing. Just the permabears looking for arrows to pull from their increasingly thinning quivers. How about this: the economy is rebounding, unemployment falling, the senate bill doesn't kill the banks, Europe in the toilet(watch wealthy Europeans pick up US assets big time, including RE), mortgage rates still low and going nowhere, buy volume seeing a sharp uptick in NYC RE. Smells like a bottom to me and all the permabears looking to pick up properties at $200/sq ft are best checking listings for Nome Alaska.

Yes Europeans will be buying NYC assets with their oh so robust euro

Greece ugly? how about California? Illinois? new jersey? new york?

you make me chortle

earth to AR; despite the fall in the euro, US assets are still a bargain for those across the pond. and european socialist policies have been far more damaging to their economies than anything here. get real and at least show a modicum of understanding of basic economics. enjoy that rental.

wannabuy. still chortling.

wannabuy,

I'm not so sure I would consider myself a permabear but "the buy volume seeing a sharp uptick in NYC RE" is a direct result of the expiration of the tax credit, which means it COULD well be a dead cat bounce.

You might also want to note that despite the increase in NYC RE sales volume over the last year, the NSA Case-Shiller index for the NY metro has declined every month since August 2009... In other words, sales volume does NOT inherently equal price increases. If you look at stock exchange "volume" you will note that increases in volume can be associated with either an increase OR decrease in prices.

Yes, the U.S. HAS been doing better, but most analysts are calling for a slowdown in growth in Q3 and Q4 which seems even more likely as earnings were up partly because of increasing sales to Europe due to demand for U.S. goods that were cheap based upon a weak dollar. Now the dollar is going up making our goods pricier, at the same time Europe is pushing through austerity budgets, decreasing demand.

On the other hand, (while I agree wholeheartedly with aboutready's comments about European buyers of NYC RE) the collapse of the Euro is strengthening the dollar which should help to keep mortgage rates low for the time-being. So the Euro fallout is a bit of a mixed bag for (NYC) RE.

wannabuy,

you might want to check your political ideology at the door.

A lot of the problems in Europe are certainly tied to extremely generous social welfare policies in Europe, but many of the recent problems have been greatly exacerbated by Conservative parties, politicians and constituencies.

For instance, the Greek disaster is a direct consequence of the the Greek Conservatives having cooked the books grossly understating Greek debt. (When the Socialists came to power they acknowledged it, at which point all hell broke loose.) Resolving the crisis has been severely complicated by Angela Merkel (Conservative Chancellor of Germany) fiddling while Rome burns because she's worried about elections next week. (And a weaker Euro is good for Germany's export economy, so she really is sort of ok if Greece slips and the Euro sinks.)

For the record, what has forced Merkel to act, however badly, is that a Greek collapse threatens German banks that hold Greek bonds - so I guess you are you asserting that German bankers are socialists!? I guess they shouldn't have listened to those socialists at Standard & Poor's and Moodys...

http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/05/euro_pounded_foreigners_purcha.html

wannabuy, any comments?

FLMAO... .no wannabuy is bullish on NYC RE.... good call aboutready on the mkts... hilarious.... geitner/bernie... it's hard to put a scrambled egg back together again. eh?

I'm ALL CASH.... lmao....

If Time Warner Center still counts as new, then here's one: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/462818-condo-80-columbus-circle-lincoln-square-new-york. Should go in favorite-price-cutters too.

04/01/2004 Sale recorded for $3,920,263.
11/07/2007 Previously Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $11,300,000.
06/12/2008 Brown Harris Stevens Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $10,900,000.
09/15/2009 Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $7,500,000.
02/24/2010 Price decreased by 7% to $6,950,000.
04/14/2010 Listing entered contract.
04/28/2010 Sale recorded for $6,275,000.

Lots of work done to this after the 2004 purchase.

10 WEA: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/10-west-end-avenue-new_york

There have been 8 closings of resales in 2010 to date. Three were above the original (2007) sponsor sale and five below, with a max gain of 8%, a max loss of 5.2% and an average gain of 0.4%, so the average seller got out whole on principal and lost transaction costs coming and going.

Date Unit Sponsor Resale Change
7/7/2010 #11J $699 $755 8.0%
5/27/2010 #12C $928 $880 -5.2%
5/11/2010 #20D $1,514 $1,460 -3.6%
5/10/2010 #21D $1,555 $1,540 -1.0%
4/30/2010 #6D $825 $820 -0.6%
3/15/2010 #6G $873 $918 5.2%
3/12/2010 #9K $1,278 $1,295 1.3%
2/22/2010 #25A $1,568 $1,557 -0.7%
Average 0.4%

Returning to the building that started this thread, what a difference half a year makes.

2009 resales (of 2008 closings)...

Down 13.6%
12/09/2009 #2A $2,068,000
06/23/2008 #2A $2,392,887

Down 17.8%
08/11/2009 #2B $1,800,000
06/30/2008 #2B $2,189,339

Down 15.3%
05/14/2009 #3A $2,112,500
07/08/2008 #3A $2,494,712

Flat
12/23/2008 #2C $975,000
07/15/2008 #2C $972,428

...vs a 2010 resale

Up 5.4%
08/02/2010 #4A $2,570,000
07/01/2008 #4A $2,438,708

Or you could look at it as sequential same line comps, with the 2010 sale 22.9% above the average of the 2009 sales. There's more than a floor or two of elevation going on here.

08/02/2010 #4A $2,570,000
12/09/2009 #2A $2,068,000
05/14/2009 #3A $2,112,500

First two resales at the Harrison. Mixed results with one up more than the other is down. Likely a small loss on average after transaction costs coming and going.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-harrison-205-west-76th-street-new_york?show_all=true

Down 4.2%
07/19/2010 #6B $1,520,000
09/15/2009 #6B $1,587,011

Up 12.3%
05/17/2010 #PH2D $2,300,000
11/24/2009 #PH2D $2,048,779

First resale in the Cammeyer. Not auspicious for the half of the building that is still listed for sale or in shadow inventory.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-cammeyer?show_all=true

Down 20%
08/06/2010 #5J $990,000
04/29/2008 #5J $1,237,173

No mortgage on the original purchase, so this was not a short sale

First resale at 300 East 79th, down 23.3% from 2008 developer sale. A bit old news at this point (closed May 2010), but in a way not so much since there have been no closings - developer or resale - in the building for since May.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385620-condo-300-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york
03/12/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Corcoran at $2,850,000.
07/28/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $2,902,012.
12/02/2008 Corcoran Listing sold.
02/19/2009 Listed by Modlin Group at $2,995,000.
04/28/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $2,750,000.
09/23/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $2,495,000.
01/29/2010 Price decreased by 4% to $2,395,000.
03/03/2010 Listing entered contract.
05/06/2010 Listing sold.
05/06/2010 Sale recorded for $2,225,000.

More flips at the Harrison.

The most recent one was very kind to the sellers/flippers. Big gain and above ask

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/563850-condo-205-west-76th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
#6A
10/21/2010 Previous Sale recorded for $2,513,254.
10/24/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $3,150,000.
01/18/2011 Price decreased by 5% to $2,995,000.
02/04/2011 Listing entered contract.
03/08/2011 Listing sold.
03/08/2011 Sale recorded for $3,025,000

Others got out more in the vicinty of flat after transaction costs...

#501
01/08/2010 Previous Sale recorded for $1,736,606.
04/08/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $1,995,000.
05/10/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $1,945,000.
06/04/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $1,895,000.
10/16/2010 Listing is no longer available.
11/16/2010 Re-listed by Corcoran.
11/17/2010 Listing entered contract.
02/11/2011 Listing sold.
02/11/2011 Sale recorded for $1,830,000

#603
09/02/2009 Previous Sale recorded for $958,848.
09/02/2010 Listed by CMB Realty, LLC at $1,149,000.
09/17/2010 Price decreased by 7% to $1,069,000.
11/17/2010 Listing entered contract.
01/31/2011 Listing sold.
01/31/2011 Sale recorded for $999,000.

...or down 6% plus costs

#803
11/03/2009 Previous Sale recorded for $1,019,975.
10/19/2010 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $969,000.
11/20/2010 Listing entered contract.
01/19/2011 Listing sold.
01/19/2011 Sale recorded for $960,000.