jan 2011 predictions?

I should I say more chips are being placed there than any other. I forget what this psychological bias is called...but there is a name for it.

Moxie, you should go with the mid-point choice of every category. This reduces the weightings of outliers and gets closer to the consensus choice.

Interesting point as there is one prediction (the one Rhino took most exception with) that was
2/91/6/1

If you eliminate just that one the number for the second category(the only one drastically effected) changes from 42% to 37%

in fact if you just take out that prediction altogether(but wait those are your numbers riversider lol)
the numbers become
35/37/23/5

I think its a lame category because if we manage stability...we will probably rise a little. I also dont see why anyone would vote for a modest decline to clear all these condos from the market...Or when Jonathan Miller himself is forming a partnership to turns distressed condos into rentals.

rhino, for the umpteenth time these are asking prices. it isn't hard at all to envision some scenarios where asking price medians or means increase for condos, but closing costs in the general market fall.

Ha don't umpteenth me anything! I have been assuming we have been using this metric is a proxy for the actual market. Who would actually want to participate in a conversation about future asking prices?

well, that's the conversation. look at the initial post. i've tried to chime in a couple of times, but the noise, lord, it's terrible.

I think the spirit of Moxies question is where the market will be....and then offered this metric as a means to measure that. I think most people here have moved on from the initial post to a discussion of where the true market will be in 2011. Correct me if I am wrong. Other people besides you that is. You seem to be going with the letter of the original post.

rhino, doesn't it occur to you at all that that might be the reason for the numbers that you find so incredulous?

no, i haven't gotten the sense that we've moved beyond the original metric. if you can show me where anyone other than you has done so, please do.

What do you think Jonathan Miller is betting on the direction and magnitude of the asking prices of condos? If he expects to make 10 cash on cash... hmmmm.... do the math.

"Veteran appraiser Jonathan Miller is teaming up with boutique investment bank Westwood Capital and Gerald Guterman, the apartment building owner and manager, in a new venture to convert $1 billion in new, distressed condo projects to rental apartments. The trio, dubbing themselves Condominium Recovery LLC, plans to make bulk purchases from struggling banks, starting with New York City and South Florida. "The whole question is, especially after all of the reserves are gone, do you take the unlimited liability and run with it, or do you deal with someone who has credibility and has the funds, and sell it to them on a reasonable basis, which today is a rental basis?" said Guterman, who has owned or managed more than 60,000 apartments over the past four decades. The group is looking to make an average 10 percent return on the properties, which it plans to hold onto for about four years apiece. After that, they could create a real estate investment trust or sell the rentals as co-ops or condos."

aboutready
1 day ago
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who was in on the bet? was it p09, that cheap bastard?

says the woman too cheap to buy a new toilet seat so she and her family of 3 lived without for several days.

Aboutready, you may be right. I guess that I should bid this thread good day at this point. I dont see what could possibly be interesting about guessing at asks...especially when apparently asks have remained at peak price at many new dev condos that are confirmed as dealing with buyers well below them.

rhino, not trying to be contentious. but if you look at who posted predictions, many of them are bearish. i think at least some of us were trying to make the point that this wasn't the proper metric. in moxie's defense, he/she is amenable to another measurement. so another thread is likely in order.

btw, on the successful lowballs thread i posted a rather stunning below ask price for a new development condo. check it out.

I am not trying to be contentious either... I don't want to argue about the intent of this thread. You seem to be correct. At the same time, I truly dont find ask prediction interesting.

let's beat a dead horse....earlier in the thread

"As i submitted in the op we all know this metric can be torn apart. It is of course skewed, incomplete and absurd. It will most likely be similarly skewed, incomplete and absurd 10 1/2 mos from now.
It was chosen as implied for simplicity's sake. Feel free to submit a better gauge. The intent was to choose a figure provided by a 3rd party(SE) that could not be engineered to fit your projection."

Later in the thread i submitted to Rhino after he suggested we use the Miller data

"where do you access that report Rhino? If it encompasses the whole market it is clearly superior.
does it break down sales by borough? I assume we find out jan 2011 prices in april 11'?"

As for the intent of the thread that is a simple answer. Put some concrete numbers on where you think the chosen metric will be in 10 and a 1/2 months.

The nice thing about the Streeteasy "ask" metric is that you have a daily metric for what the "ask" levels are.

I've been watching those SE numbers for over a year and they are moving in a quite similar fashion to closing prices.

As I noted earlier, Jonathan Miller still hasn't posted two-bedroom price per square foot on the data tab of his web site.

topper, i agree with you but i don't think it will extend to the future. i think the list/closing prices for new development condos could become VERY interesting (sorry for the caps, i couldn't help myself).

probably somewhat like the dow and the s/p..we all know the s and p is a better true reflection of the broader market because of its larger sample size but when you match the indices up they tend to look like this..

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=1y;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Yup.

Just went to a couple of open houses today. Priced at about 23 times equivalent rent. La La Land!

I still think a 1-9% decline this year is the most likely scenario followed closely by a 10% or more decline. Although I think the later makes more sense from a value perspective I think we've entered the "slow-train-wreck" phase of this market correction. Could extend for years. Let's hope though that it happens more quickly.

with 10 months to go...the figure has changed less than 1%..
1214 avg is 1203

2%/91%/6%/1%

Still looking good!

with 5 months to go the figure is flat!!!
1214 avg is 1213..

Didn't catch this thread the first time around, but a bit surprised by some of the answers that were given. Rhino's main complaint seems to be that flat isn't sexy enough of a story, too much of a consensus and therefore likely to be wrong. Unfortunately, that's how this seems to have turned out so far. We should do this with other "better" metrics, though that's probably inviting a long-winded debate on here, full of rants and devoid of answers.

" We should do this with other "better" metrics,"

Precisely, like 4thQ 2010 Miller/Sam avg price per sq ft for manhattan coops and condos
And
Number of Sales

truthskr10,

I like it! I would prefer median ppsf, but that doesn't seem to be on Miller's site. Do you want to start a new thread? We can make the prediction date for 8/1/11, maybe?

i"m not tasking u guys to read the thread but this issue(better metric) was debated early in the thread. if you browse the discussion you will see why it was chosen. you will also find why it remained as the chosen metric

and yes the bigger point here is that flat is "not sexy".

well heres the thread for the folks who had "the balls" 10mos ago.
once again flat is not sexy

I will be interesting to see at what level the fresh inventory is listed come mid-January. Yes, slow declines are boring. We could be 5-7 years from the actual low point in inflation-adjusted dollars. Plenty of time to watch that paint dry.