Cult of Contrarianism
Started by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Discussion about
Was listening to Hugh Hendry. One of his ideas is that the investing public has developed a Pavlovian response to buying on dips. Stocks, Real Estate, etc with the expectation that the last 30 years of history showing increasing prices will resume. What if this view of the world is wrong?
It is wrong, we are on the verge of major losses of confidence. The last 8-9 months was simply a bounce fueled exclusively by unsustainable public debt. Current confidence levels in the banking system, political leaders, equity valuations, RE valuations, currency..etc..etc..are nearing tipping points.
I have been personally afraid to buy the dips or get short on the pops...fear of losing the (meager) savings I have and total lack of confidence in ANYTHING financial. I keep hearing reports that things are getting better, but considering all that is and has gone down I feel like we are in the eye of the storm and I am waiting for the sh** to hit the fan.
Whats your take on this?
http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/02/12/greek.us.ferguson.ft/index.html
KeithB
I think its a real possibility in the future. But as bad as things are here, they are worse in Europe at the moment. The Greek situation means even more money coming into the U.S. Back to Hugh Hendry he points to the huge imbalance between China and the west caused by an artificially low Renminbi. It can't go on forever and when it goes we will see global havoc(maybe this will coincide with the U.S. joining the PIIGS.
Agree on afraid to aggressively buy the dips. The market is back to where it was ten years ago, which means something has fundamentally changed.