are rents down from the last year?

a few sources said so, including the observer article and one of the market reports. Of course, the bigger drop seemed to be the year going into that.

Anecdotally, I'm still seeing the lower rents I saw back at the end of the summer, with free months, and those rates were way lower than year before.

do a search for some of the older threads, for when the articles came out...

I don't know about generally, but my parents are LLs downtown and while they def were down in early 2009 (seriously my dad was in a bad mood for months) I think around late fall they told me they had gone back up and a couple weeks ago i asked him how things were and he said good. For what thats worth!

In the Village and West Village I would say that rents have creeped up, especially in prime properties. Just my observation of late...Don't shoot the messenger.

Yes, definitely don't pay attention to the data when you have anecdotes! ;-)

(remember, there were 'rents are up' anecdotes pretty much every month during year of huge decline).

I am just referring to a small segment of the market, not meant to mean rents are up everywhere. I tend to deal with the best of the market in prime West Village/Village(as noted above).

I just spent 2 intense months looking for a relatively high end rental. There was not one place that did not offer a free month -- and that was before negotiations. Ultimately I got an apartment that was 16% less than my previous luxury rental, in the same neighborhood, and the new apartment is much, much better - with a terrace and a fabulous view.

I also saw many apartments that were very unreasonable and were on the market for a long, long time. Take a look at the comp rental thread. Many apts have come significantly off their original ask and all the perks like free months are not reflected in the final price.

My rent is down 10% from last year. Just negotiated it with my LL last week. He didn't even counter offer which surprised me, just said 'OK, no problem'. Makes me think I should've asked for 15% off... ; )

yes..i negotiated a $375 reduction starting 2/1..

Rents are still down significantly in the buildings I track

We negotiated a 17% decrease on our rental which renewed on February 1st, now I just gotta keep working on the garage. Our neighbor negotiated a 24% decrease on an identical unit in Aug of 2009. He was paying more than us, so it all evens out to a lower rate for both and our units are in a rent stabilized bldg to boot.

Damn I should've pressed harder I guess. I'm in prime Park Slope so I thought I'd play it safe at 10%. Oh well, I'm happy with that for now.

bb10024, it depends on what you did last year. I think there's clarity on rents being down 20+% from two years ago. If you got a 20+% reduction last year from the prior year, then I would say it's too close to call. If you had a 10% reduction last year from the prior year, then there's an argument to be made for another 10+%.

In parts of the market that I track (higher end condos, co-ops, and townhouses, no rental buildings), I'm seeing a lot more asks that are "reasonable" (i.e., 20+% down from peak) than a year ago. I consider "market" to be the lower end of asking rents, with room for about another 10% in negotiations. The lower end of asking rents has not moved from a year ago, but the fraction of the market at the lower end has increased greatly. I.e., if the lower end of asking rents in some segment is $2000, then for every 1 place priced there a year ago, you now see 5 places at that pricing. However, you don't really see stuff below $2000.

In other words, you're more likely to trip across a place that is at the level of "a good deal in the market" more easily because there is more consensus as to where the market currently is from landlords. You rarely see something coming to market at 2007 rents any more, whereas last year it was very common (and the units simply sat until price chops made them in line with 20+% down, which sometimes took on the order of a year to happen).

Search for the thread with the words "Rental Edition" for some examples.

Sweet Jesus people, TOP said versus THIS TIME LAST YEAR. So yes, per ALL sources from ALL brokerage firms and other data sources say that yes, in NYC as a whole and in Manhattan by itself, rents are down year-over-year.

asking rents for apartments in PRIME Manhattan (not west of 10th ave in Midtown West, not FiDI, not Harlem) are HIGHER than they were last year. I have clients looking to move because landlords are asking for adjustments in their rents, oR because free month incentives have run out. THERE IS LESS INVENTORY THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

It is very easy to look at "listings" on streeteasy for a bit and declare "yes, rents are down!". Far more difficult: find an apartment you would actually want to live in, and see what the asking rent is.

lots of stuff not released yet. a number of buildings coming on line. i don't think hiring this year will be any better than last year, in some areas likely to be even worse. i think landlords are holding onto inventory, hoping the market will improve in the spring/summer. i could be wrong, but i think later will be a much better time to look in terms of inventory pressure and thus price.

i would not be surprised to see a number of developments go at least temporarily rental for relatively large percentages of their units as well, once they obtain bank approval to do so.

jh10 - THERE IS LESS INVENTORY THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

What's your source? Anything I see wrt rental inventory is so corrupted with multiple listings of same unit and bait and switch tactics as to render it useless for purposes of defining any accurate trend.

data collected by brokerage firms from the landlords is my source

and the fact that this is what i do every day
"feet on the street"

I'm sorry that your investments aren't working out at the moment, but you need to face reality rather than hype misdirection. It's not that I think rents will be stuck here forever, but they just haven't turned yet despite your proclamations over the past several months. You really need to take a look at the Comps: Rental Edition thread. I know you are averse to it, so let me give an example:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/604538-rental-366-west-broadway-soho-new-york?email=true

Rented in 2007/2008 for $18.5, been sitting on the market now for 8 months, dropped to $13.5K at the moment.

If you have comps of increases, please post them on that thread. You seem to talk a lot, but you don't provide any evidence.

i don't really care about a townhouse listing on the uws listed by an owner as opposeed to a professional landlord that very few people would be either interested in or actually qualify to rent.

nor am in interested in pulling up data to prove anything to you

do you actually have a job or do you sit on streeteasy all day wanking over the threads?

My family just rented a 4 bedroom apartment in PRIME UWS for 15% less than what it rented for last year. Full disclosure: we bought in 1995 and sold end of last year (kids are starting to go away to college) and we are downsizing. "Just" means signed in last 3 weeks. I would like to buy again but I find prices to be too high and expect them to come down over the next year. I do not claim to have a crystal ball, I think I have good reasons to believe that I am right. If I am wrong then I will suffer the consequences.

Jackny, that sounds like you almost timed it perfectly. You must feel wealthy from your sale! :-)
If most New Yorkers had bought around 1995 like you did, may be NY would still have a middle class today ...

In 1995 we saw rental prices heading up and sale properties lagging. Better lucky than good is what I always say. Now it feels to me like we are experiencing the opposite and with metrics, as discussed on these boards many times, the way they are I can't help but expect sale prices to continue to fall. On another thread someone was talking about Wall Street bonuses for 2010 and I would agree with the premise that the profit opportunities are considerably lower this year versus last. Even though it is early in the year, it is very reasonable to expect bonuses to be down versus what we just experienced.
With 4 children to put through college though I sure as heck do not feel wealthy!!! Blessed yes, wealthy no... (--:

jacknyfrost
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse My family just rented a 4 bedroom apartment in PRIME UWS for 15% less than what it rented for last year. Full disclosure: we bought in 1995 and sold end of last year (kids are starting to go away to college) and we are downsizing. "Just" means signed in last 3 weeks. I would like to buy again but I find prices to be too high and expect them to come down over the next year. I do not claim to have a crystal ball, I think I have good reasons to believe that I am right. If I am wrong then I will suffer the consequences.

again, a very very particular segment of the market is looking for a four bedroom rental. i am curious, is this a condo or a coop building?

congrats, Jack!

And its always about luck/timing. Its not just when you buy. Its when you enter the workforce. Very different financial paths to folks who entered Wall street in 95 vs. 00 vs. 05.... and by path, I mean possibly leaving Wall Street.

Jim- it is a rental building pure and simple. I am not extrapolating on rental trends in the next 12 months, just giving the example for the question that was raised.
Thanks somewhereelse- and a different path for those that entered the work force in the 80's! It is my impression though that most people under appreciate the luck/timing aspect of it all and are more than happy to annoint themselves as a genius when things go well, and everyone else's fault when things go badly. But that is ok too. People do what they have to do I guess. ( --:

'asking rents for apartments in PRIME Manhattan (not west of 10th ave in Midtown West, not FiDI, not Harlem) are HIGHER than they were last year.'

So your anecdotes say, but the actual statistics do not, in fact, bear this out. I also hate lying liars who lie to suit there own ends. From TRGNY - rents in almost every category and in almost every neighborhood of Manhattan - DOWN year over year in Jan - and they say this is NOT including concessions:

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

If you break it out by both neighborhood and category, its 50/50, with the overall weighted average still down. But looking at it THIS way still kills your argument, because some types of apts in Harlem, Fidi, BPC, and the LES are UP, and many types in 'prime' Manhattan - Chelsea, UWS, Gramercy, Soho amd Tribeca - are down.

So there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to the - AGAIN - year over year declines.

jason10006
6 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse 'asking rents for apartments in PRIME Manhattan (not west of 10th ave in Midtown West, not FiDI, not Harlem) are HIGHER than they were last year.'

So your anecdotes say, but the actual statistics do not, in fact, bear this out. I also hate lying liars who lie to suit there own ends. From TRGNY - rents in almost every category and in almost every neighborhood of Manhattan - DOWN year over year in Jan - and they say this is NOT including concessions:

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

If you break it out by both neighborhood and category, its 50/50, with the overall weighted average still down. But looking at it THIS way still kills your argument, because some types of apts in Harlem, Fidi, BPC, and the LES are UP, and many types in 'prime' Manhattan - Chelsea, UWS, Gramercy, Soho amd Tribeca - are down.

So there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to the - AGAIN - year over year declines.

there is no ryhme or reason....unless you actually get off your ass and go and find the apartments! i encourage you to do it! i don't care what tregny says. show me the actual units, with their askingg rents, and concessions. and then tell me whats, what ok? because what you see sitting in front of your computer and what is actually available ARE TWO ENTIERLY DIFFERENT THINGS!

people love to quote data....

What's wrong with that? Generally better than anecdotal reports!

That said, the report does suggest that month/month changes seem to have bottomed out and inventories have started to ease lower.

"From TRGNY - rents in almost every category and in almost every neighborhood of Manhattan - DOWN year over year in Jan - and they say this is NOT including concessions:"

Can I get a WHOOPS!

I love how Jason is yelling about data, but doesn't actually have any, and is talking about INVENTORY.

Try again, dude.

Did I mention how much I hate lying liars? here is the Citi Habitats data - unlike TREGNY they lump together door/non-door. Still, STEEP y-o-y declines in Jan. Liar.

Data from http://www.citi-habitats.com/market.php

Jan-10
Studio 1 2 3
Chelsea 2049 2895 4262 5048
EV 1915 2254 3122 4030
Gram/FI 2017 2807 3871 4975
Harlem 1165 1560 1698 2141
LES 1725 2067 2757 3763
MW 1678 2480 3400 4825
ME 1730 2406 3341 4495
MH 1375 1692 2100 2900
WS/BPC 1934 2350 3804 4795
Mhill 1833 2347 3289 3950
SoH/Tri 2181 3023 5090 6753
UES 1553 2205 3050 5165
UWS 1643 2496 3533 5300
WH 1027 1200 1733 2000
WV 2054 2991 3806 5233
Weighted
Averag 1725 2318 3257 4358

Jan-09 Studio 1 2 3
Chelsea 2148 2974 4311 5450
EV 1843 2382 3410 4200
Gram/FI 2000 2907 4413 5200
Harlem 1108 1495 1950 2119
LES 1768 2295 3023 4095
MW 1796 2429 4189 5250
ME 1768 2319 3745 4933
MH 1400 1967 2650 2930
WS/BPC 2143 2853 4195 5250
Mhill 1874 2681 3215 4359
SoH/Tri 2325 3317 5086 7169
UES 1623 2267 3091 5291
UWS 1747 2480 3687 5411
WH 1022 1364 1858 2003
WV 2060 3004 4190 5300
Weighted
Averag 1775 2449 3534 4597

Y-O-Y Change
Studio 1 2 3 SIMPLE (not weighted) AVERAGE DECLINE:
Chelsea -4.8% -2.7% -1.1% -8.0% -4.2%
EV 3.8% -5.7% -9.2% -4.2% -3.8%
Gram/FI 0.8% -3.6% -14.0% -4.5% -5.3%
Harlem 4.9% 4.2% -14.8% 1.0% -1.2%
LES -2.5% -11.0% -9.6% -8.8% -8.0%
MW -7.0% 2.1% -23.2% -8.8% -9.2%
ME -2.2% 3.6% -12.1% -9.7% -5.1%
MH -1.8% -16.3% -26.2% -1.0% -11.3%
WS/BPC -10.8% -21.4% -10.3% -9.5% -13.0%
Mhill -2.2% -14.2% 2.2% -10.4% -6.1%
SoH/Tri -6.6% -9.7% 0.1% -6.2% -5.6%
UES -4.5% -2.8% -1.3% -2.4% -2.8%
UWS -6.3% 0.6% -4.4% -2.1% -3.0%
WH 0.5% -13.7% -7.2% -0.2% -5.1%
WV -0.3% -0.4% -10.1% -1.3% -3.0%
Weighted
Average -2.9% -5.7% -8.5% -5.5% NA

i am encouraging you brave do it yourselfer's to go out and do it yourself. GO SEE SOME APARTMENTS. see what asking rents are, and if you feel like you are getting a "deal". see if there is complete transparency, or if you actually need a real estate professional to show you the total scope of the market (you will!). but don't just sit in your office or apartment and pretend you know shit about shit, because you don't. and won't

To be clear, only the last column on the left is a simple average decline...the rest of the mius signs (and hey broker dummy, they are ALL minus signs) are just plain declines, in every type of apartment, in every single neighborhood in Manhattan. Zero types up.

Again, I hate lying liars who lie.

jason, go find an apartment you are willing to live in and tell me what it is going to cost you. then let me know. and we'll see if it is cheaper than it was offered for last year. people always have stories like "oh, i was going to rent this STEAL. But it was on 11th ave and 48th st and there were hookers outside day and night" or "this place was perfect BUT it was facing the airconditioning units for an adjacent building"

"i ended up renting "x" apartment because it is in a perfect location, has every amentity i wanted. sure, i paid 20% more than i thought i was going to, but I AM SO HAPPY WITH MY NEW HOME"

or you could just be a douchbag and look shit up on the internet

Look at 116 Central Park South. I believe that area is considered prime. There are 4 apts that in the past few years have all rented for $!6,000. They were all down to $10,000 in the winter months this year. One has been raised to $12,000 for the spring/bonus push. They all have small terraces (the 12,000 has huge terrace) and fabulous views of central park. They are all sitting empty for many many months. One is in triple mint condition. They have all been on the market so long, they are probably very negotiable. I would say that from 16,000 to less than 10,000 is down. i did go, i did look.

apt23, do you spend $10k per year on rent? tell the truth

my point in asking that question is to illustrate that rentals that are over $10k per month (or entire townouses, or 4 plus bedroom apartments) are at the very top end of the market.

and, i have to ask, what did any of them rent for in february 2009. the discussion is about declines from last year. "a few year" is a bit broad, dont you think?

I thought you didn't care about data?

i dont. but losers here, who think they know everything, continue to push it foward as "proof". if you are going to use it, at least don't make it so easy to poke wholes in it.

"a few years"

"i had to pay for a shower curtain rod"

try again all.

and let me know what you when you find an actual apartment you would live in that is cheaper that it was last year

'and let me know what you when you find an actual apartment you would live in that is cheaper that it was last year"

Glenwood, Rockrose, Rose, and Brodsky doorman bldgs - all cheaper now than a year ago. Everything for rent along Riverside blvd, as are things closer to lincolsn center in doorman bldgs. All places i would live in. Al cheaper than a year ago -as evidence by the actual statistics from BROKERS, you fricking dummy. Why should I believe one random broker when entire brokerage firms are publically telling the world rents are down in prime Manhattan in doorman bldgs?

jason, I think he is actually a 12 year old with a snow day and nothing better to do.

jim just earned himself some more time on auto-ignore.

the correct answer is yes.. check out miller samuel if you don't buy the citi data

oh, i buy citi data.....that is how i know that vacancy rates are down year to year. which will equate to higher asking rents, and less incentives.

BUSINESS AS USUAL

So basically the data and our own experience looking for an apt shows jim is a lying thief. Yet he keeps going on and on with his lie, why? Is streeteasy that scary to brokers? KeithB is not bothered by it, nobody jumps down his throat, people don't think he's a lying thief.

I am following aboutready and putting this lying thief on the ignore list too. :)

thank you for the advice. if i thought you might be as good at parenting as you are at deception i might take it to heart.

From citis Jan report:

Y-O-Y Change Studio
Chelsea -4.8%
EV 3.8%
Gramercy/Flatiron 0.8%
Harlem 4.9%
LES -2.5%
MW -7.0%
ME -2.2%
MH -1.8%
WS/BPC -10.8%
Mhill -2.2%
SoHo/TriBeCa -6.6%
UES -4.5%
UWS -6.3%
WH 0.5%
WV -0.3%
Average -2.9%

Y-O-Y Change 1-bds
Chelsea -2.7%
EV -5.7%
Gramercy/Flatiron -3.6%
Harlem 4.2%
LES -11.0%
MW 2.1%
ME 3.6%
MH -16.3%
WS/BPC -21.4%
Mhill -14.2%
SoHo/TriBeCa -9.7%
UES -2.8%
UWS 0.6%
WH -13.7%
WV -0.4%
Average -5.7%

Y-O-Y Change 2bds
Chelsea -1.1%
EV -9.2%
Gramercy/Flatiron -14.0%
Harlem -14.8%
LES -9.6%
MW -23.2%
ME -12.1%
MH -26.2%
WS/BPC -10.3%
Mhill 2.2%
SoHo/TriBeCa 0.1%
UES -1.3%
UWS -4.4%
WH -7.2%
WV -10.1%
Average -8.5%

Y-O-Y Change 3bds
Chelsea -8.0%
EV -4.2%
Gramercy/Flatiron -4.5%
Harlem 1.0%
LES -8.8%
MW -8.8%
ME -9.7%
MH -1.0%
WS/BPC -9.5%
Mhill -10.4%
SoHo/TriBeCa -6.2%
UES -2.4%
UWS -2.1%
WH -0.2%
WV -1.3%
Average -5.5%

So you buy the data that you like but not the data you don't like even if the data you don't like directly answers the question posed by the OP. Thanks for clarifying your position.

From TREGNY

Year-over-year Changes
Non-Doorman Doorman
February '09 February '10 Change February '09 February '10 Change
Studios $1979 $1920 -2.97 $2364 $2241 -5.22%
One-bedrooms $2632 $2594 -1.46% $3395 $3236 -4.69%
Two-bedrooms $3654 $3704 1.37% $5258 $4995 -4.99%

Where Prices Decreased

Harlem— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-0.74%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-3.69%)

Upper West Side— Non-doorman studios (-1.11%), doorman studios (-1.03%), doorman one-bedrooms (-0.50%), doorman two-bedrooms (-1.41%)

Upper East Side— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-0.56%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-1.09%)

Midtown West— Doorman studios (-0.45%), doorman two-bedrooms (-0.81%)

Midtown East— Ddoorman two-bedrooms (-0.57%)

Murray Hill— Non-doorman studios (-2.94%), doorman studios (-0.59%)

Chelsea— Non-doorman studios (-2.46%), doorman studios (-2.13%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.70%)

Gramercy Park— Non-doorman studios (-5.47%), doorman studios (-0.35%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.13%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-1.12%)

Greenwich Village— Non-doorman studios (-0.94%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-1.63%)

East Village— Doorman studios (-3.83%), doorman one-bedrooms (-4.90%)

SoHo— Doorman studios (-2.12%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-8.91%), doorman one-bedrooms (-0.74%), doorman two-bedrooms (-3.21%)

Lower East Side— Doorman studios (-0.27%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-2.02%), doorman two-bedrooms (-2.34%)

TriBeCa— Non-doorman studios (-4.47%), doorman studios (-7.1%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.34%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.75%), doorman two-bedrooms (-2.67%)

Financial District— Non-doorman studios (-6.06%), doorman two-bedrooms (-3.28%)

Battery Park City— Doorman studios (-1.48%), doorman one-bedrooms (-5.10%)

Can I get a list of these idiot brokers to ignore right now so I don't waste time in the future? Thank you.

please both of you ignore me.

try renting an apartment. Go ahead. i encourage it. bring your graphs and data to the leasing agents of the landlords and seeing if they give you a bigger discount. that would be worth a laugh

Prundential's latest report:

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/MainSite/MarketReports/ReportsMenu.aspx

manhattan mean & median rents down as are rents per square foot, year over year. EVEN THOUGH INVENTORY IS DOWN (as it is in the other two reports.)

WORSE for this dummy is Prudential, unlike the other, SINGLES OUT "loft luxury" as a seperate catagory...and it too is DOWN year over year! Burn, slam, you loose.

i'll just post again, for those who didn't read

1. vacancies are down (except of unattractive fringe type residential neighborhoods)
2. landlordsd are noting the decrease in vacancies, and are pricing accordingly (slightly higher than winder 08,early 09)
3. incenttives are taken away (very few paid brokers fee PLUS one month, or multiple month free, now its an either or scenario
4. prices will slowly increase going into the traditionally busier rental season
5. incentives will be taken away
6. incentives will probably return for some in fall, winter 2010 for less desierable properties

i think it highly ironic that you all are willing to accept data by both elliman and citi habitats when it supports your hypothesis (lower rents than last year) but refuse to when it speaks to vacancy rates.

it just proves to me that none of you know what in hell you are talking about. you just sort of pick and choose different reports that support what you want to believe.

vacancy numbers are notoriously difficult to compile, which is why I would be reluctant to rely on them as a market indicator. even if vacancies are dropping, rents are falling, so its a bit of a stretch to say that rents are going to go up, isn't it?

things like this complicate rental vacancy numbers: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/shadow-rental-market-pushing-down-rents.html

"shadow inventory" is a favorite street easy term.

it makes the bears feel better about their position.

where does that "shadow inventory" exist? in fringe neighbhorhoods.

Vacancy rates have less bearing when unemplployment and underemployment are so high...vacancy rates have been higher with higher rents, lower with lower rents, lower with higher rents, and higher with lower rents many times over the past 20 years. Same is true for SF, from whence I came.

If incomes and employment are down, the entire supply-demand curve shifts lower. If European buyers have a weaker Euro and a weak econonomy back home, that lowers aggregate demand for buyers-thus increasing condo rental inventory. Altogether - even with the same vacancy rates, basic economics tells you prices will be lower. This is ALSO true in the for sale market, where "volumes" are up and inventory down, but prices are down too, in many parts of the US.

However, TOP was RENTS. R-E-N-T-S. Not vacancy rates. RENTS. Every single brokerage report, the official government inflation figures, the Federal Reserve bank of New York and anything else you can think of say rents are down yoy in Manhattan and NYC both. And as a renter who has in fact, recently rented again, and who religiously checks streeteasy, NYBITS, etc, i can assure you rents are DOWN in just about every neighborhood in my own experience.

In addition, this market is so soft that I did not, and would not need a broker.