Calling the Bottom in Manhattan

"somewhere else - don't you think the price chopper's thread is also anecdotal - actually picking and choosing those sales which reinforce that point of view?"

Exactly. Yes, of course... and thats my point, and I've made it several times already. Why look at the anecdotes when we have ACTUAL DATA.

> Whenever I post a sale which is ABOVE the 2005-06 selling price, all the bears are strangely silent.

Again, you're playing the same game you are complaining about.

Why the hell should bears be looking for anecdotes... when they have the DATA on their side. Brokerage quarterlies down, case shiller down, Miller Samuel charts down.

The anecdotes are being used to cover up reality...

100 sales occurred in year xxxx. Out of the group of 100, 99 sold for 1M and one sold for 50M. Avg price for that year 1.49M

The next year again there were 100 apartments sold but this time all sold for 1.2m each. Avg price 1.2M. Miller Samuel comes out saying avg Manhattan prices are down 19%, when in actual fact 99% of apartments increased in price by 20%

Somewhereelse sees the report of a 19% decrease wonders where his 950k apartment is.

Miller Samuel will have 1Q 2010 numbers public on Friday.

Very anecdotally, it feels like market went down in the prime areas (say Chelsea/Village/UWS) about 25% post-Lehman crash Sept 2008 to about Fall 2009, and it feels like we've gotten about a 5% recovery through Spring 2010.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Miller Samuel's data site is very strange. They still have not posted Q4 data in their data tab.

Topper are you kidding? Q4 has to be there. In fact it had an awful error uncovered by Inonada and I which they later corrected.

the thread
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/17524-manhattan-residential-market-ends-year-2009-on-up-note

the report
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO4Q09.pdf

"It's pretty safe to assume average psqft will be lower than 4thQ '09."

truthskr, I'm not sure why you say that - in your post you mention avg ppsf then median, which isn't really apples-to-apples. That doesn't mean you won't be right, but I don't see how you're so confident about what the numbers will say beforehand.

spinnaker, I learned the hard way that it's ultimately futile trying to argue with someone who's got blinders on willfully. somewhereelse sees things one way and will distort and deflect til the cows come home, but ultimately, that's to his detriment.

bjw
That mixing is not my fault. When you do a streeteasy search for all manahattan, that's what it kicks out.

We found 12,050 listings
Median price: $995,000 Median size: 1,100 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,033
Information on Manhattan

Do note that 995,000 divided by 1100 = $904!

I'm fairly certain the average sales psqft will be lower than last 4th Q.

The big question is does it break $1000 psq ft like it did 3rd Q.