It's Still A Terrible Time To Buy?

It's NEVER a terrible time to buy if your holding period is long enough (at least it hasn't happened yet, unless you bought in Cuba, etc.).

Thats really lousy logic.

A lousy investment + a long holding period is still a lousy investment.

Long periods + inflation just confuse folks into not understanding that....

Pretty good effort by Patrick.

Patrick does a good job on that site. Rhino linked it a few months back and I have been checking out the headline section since.

Patrick says its a bad tiem to buy, yet he has a serive he charges for that links landlords to profitable rental property. He is a huge hypocrite.

Not clear. Cost of money is only going to go up(see ten year treasury and mortgage current coupon). Replacement cost is increasing(see steel prices). I would say 50/50 bet with a slight nod to prices going up.

If mortgage raise rise, this is going to pressure housing prices *downward*

The discussion of this is on his site if you want to see his rationale (which I find convincing).

ahem, if mortgage "rates" rise

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-05/mortgage-bond-yields-that-lead-loan-rates-approach-8-month-high.html

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates rose to the highest in almost eight months amid signs the economic recovery is gaining traction.

Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed 0.11 percentage point to 4.67 percent as of 4:42 p.m. in New York, the highest since Aug. 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve ended its unprecedented purchases of the debt last week.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/rising-mortgage-rates-end-of-refi-mini.html

The Ten Year treasury yield hit 4.0% this morning for the first time since Oct 2008. Mortgage rates are moving up too and that probably means that refinance activity will decline sharply.

With the yield on the Ten Year Treasury increasing to 4%, and the end of the Fed MBS purchase program last week, mortgage rates will probably rise and refinance activity will fall sharply.

ok Riversider, we got the message after the first link.

In order for rates to climb to 4.5 or even 5%, the economy will be in full steam forward.
With a fully recovered economy, won't that be bullish for housing???

Mortgage rates hover 150-200 bps over the Ten year. It's not a huge stretch to opine that ten year will hit 5% over the next 18 months; Hell the market is projecting the ten year way over 7% based on forwards.

Time to remember that all real estate is local. It looks like prices have hit bottoms in many cities and that the economy is recovering, but that doesn't necessarily mean you want to run right out and grab a condo in Phoenix or Miami. But I think if you have job stability and the desire to buy, NYC's not a bad bet right now. (Note: I have been an owner in NYC for a dozen years; we traded up last summer).

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

NYC might benefit from price stability, but that doesn't mean prices are set to rise. Just as we have factors supporting the market, there are many factors limited price appreciation. It's flat to single digit increase at best going out.

or maybe going down? or maybe going up a little? or maybe staying sideways?

more of your opining?

ali/ericho/riversider... the three stooges of streeteasy...

FLMAO.... you little knuckleheads.... a "recovering" national economy (based on jobs growth) is the WORST thing for RE right now... FLMAO.

It gives cover for Bernie/Geitner and company to "normalize" rates, raise taxes, extinguish home owner tax credits, start to mark to mkt non-performing loans on Banks BS and finally (but most importantly) allow banks to go after underwater home"owners" w/o guilt.

and so it begins.... let's pull the plug on the dirty bath water and let's see who shat in their swim trunks... shall we?

one other thing.... Ali.. .you are my lemming #1. Congrats.. you are way way underwater... don't try to prop up your property by telling others to be lemmings... you see "RE used to be local" but thxs to this bubble the entire US, nay the entire EARTH is in a synchronized deflating bubble on RE...

I agree that if you are owning for at least 7 years it might not be TERRIBLE any more in certain markets. Certainly it seems LA has bottomed out (not SOCAL in generl - I mean Los Angeles and cities on its exact border.) Certianly Orange County CA has held up remarkably well. I might even venture to say Manhattan MIGHT be near bottom.

I do NOT expect double-digit gains. I think RE will trade sideways, especially inflation-adjusted, for years. So its not a good INVESTMENT but its no longer "terrible."

i read somewhere (i'll try to find) that BofA plans on increasing foreclosures 600% (monthly rate i believe) by the end of the year. i know of at least one bank locally that has a huge number of backlogged foreclosures. and the BofA statistics? even if they did so and foreclosures didn't increase it would still only be half of their foreclosure backlog.

good times, good times.

w67th, the earth hasn't synchronized quite yet. when china blows that will be a volcano to watch. blow baby blow.

Welcome back ar. Looks like the true mkt is coming to town and it'll make the 1st quarter sellers look like geniuses a coupla quarters down. Mmmmm. In a zero sum game, if your side is genius what does that make the other side?

ericho - are you saying that there is no future scenario possible where the economy is still in the tank and mortgage rates creep up? The stimulus certainly greased the wheels of the machine for a time, but once it fades will the (unemployed) consumer come out of his parsimonious mood or are we going to continue to borrow to keep the machine humming along (and if so can this still be done cheaply)?

Perhaps I am losing fantastic homeowning / investment opportunities, but I just don't see how the current run is sustainable without enormous (continuing) government intervention. Or is that the point - that there is an expectation that the government is going to continue to "take care of it all"?

I am interested if you have some references to show how this "end game" plays out favorably. Otherwise, I am betting on a Japan-like 20 yr + lull.

"you see "RE used to be local" but thxs to this bubble the entire US, nay the entire EARTH is in a synchronized deflating bubble on RE..."

I gotta disagree with you on that, w67th. I'd be willing to bet that the low-end of the Phoenix market saw its low last year while other markets like NYC have a ways to go. Most of it will come in the invisible form of negative carry and lack of rises despite inflation, I'd guess.

I find it curious that Ali thinks that NYC in 2009 was "not a bad bet" while Phoenix is bad. Early last year when that market was trading 70% below peak, at 1995 prices nominally and 35% below the 1992 bottom on an inflation-adjusted basis, with gross rental yields above 10%, I gotta say I was tempted. However, I decided that dropping just $100K a pop on the other side of the country just wasn't going to be worth the effort, so it went into stocks instead. Here we are a year later, that market's up 25% with another few percent in carry while NYC is flat with a few percent loss in carry. But NYC is somehow the "safer" bet.

"I find it curious that Ali thinks that NYC in 2009 was "not a bad bet"" I find it curious that you find this curious. She's a broker in NYC, not Phoenix.

Market is stronger for one bedrooms. Still a little scary to wade into anything over $2,000,000

aboutready
about 12 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse
...
good times, good times.

"Good times, good times"?... is that your attempt to be "hip"?

Pitiful

Holy crap w67 have you been away at some Maharishi Yogi reprograming retreat?

Good economy = bad for RE. Oh boy, that's rich!!!! Bad for your prospects of getting out of your timeshare anytime soon I guess.

J u s t a f e w m o r e q u a r t e r s . . . .. .

OOOOOOOOHHHHHHHMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

"I find it curious that you find this curious. She's a broker in NYC, not Phoenix."

Well, at least she put her money where her mouth is, gotta respect that. Most bottom-callers didn't actually buy anything during what they viewed as an anomolous drop. When I see a market that is highly undervalued, I scrape together what I can to put in that market. The NYC bulls and most brokers seemed to have not. I might not agree with her on outlook, but she's certainly not duplicitous.

As long as we have a stubbornly low interests rates, income property like Manhattan apartments is safe. If this period lasts a decade or more, the bears are going to be really sorry they didn't get in or stay invested earlier.

"Well, at least she put her money where her mouth is, gotta respect that."
She said she's been an owner for 12 years which means she bought in 1998, the best time ever to purchase a property in NY. Whoever bought at that time already paid off the mortgage by now or have very few years left, meaning her monthly carrying cost for housing / her income are close to nothing, whereas someone who bought after 2005 is evidently underwater. And for those who didn't buy yet, it's clearly not a good idea at this time...too much leverage.

"Well, at least she put her money where her mouth is, gotta respect that."
She said she's been an owner for 12 years which means she bought in 1998, the best time ever to purchase a property in NY. Whoever bought at that time already paid off the mortgage by now or have very few years left, meaning her monthly carrying cost for housing / her income are close to nothing, whereas someone who bought after 2005 is evidently underwater. And for those who didn't buy yet, it's clearly not a good idea at this time...too much leverage.

Lecker,

There are huge deflationary forces coming from Asia for years (cheap labor in result cheaper cost of goods). To combat this, the US government have put the printing press in full throttle. What have we learned about the fed over the past 2 decades? They won't stop until another bubble has been created.

This re-inflation trade has started in Spring of 2009. Just look at the inflationary sensitive traded items (metals) over the past 15 months. Most of are closing in on all time highs.
Housing in many areas have bottomed and we're seeing price appreciation over the past 2-3 quarters. Are all this funny money going to sip into housing???? You betcha! You can bank on it.

If jobs continue to leave US (including financial services jobs in Manhattan) for cheaper labor in Asia, how does that translate into higher RE prices? (Hint - it doesn't.)

Dollar debasement will not print us into prosperity either. Why invest in RE of a country whose currency, per erich75, is being inflated away, and thus will eventually collapse? Better investment opportunities elsewhere, no?

Spinny. Note the Canadian " marks around recovering.

Inonada.... It used to be that except for the great depression there was never a period that the entire US experienced a 'national' year over year housing price decline. That can no longer be said. Addl'y there were always sectors/geographic areas in the economy that did well even in a recession. The bubble popping made it no longer the case. My gut tells me we ain't thru with rents declining.

Yeah, don't argue with ericho. He still doesn't believe that lic is down on psf$ basis.

And finally, re recovering first is like saying to Tiger, wow what a great first shot off the tee.... Now go fix your PR problem by having a three way with those 2 skanky denny's waitresses on live tv bf hole #2 (hehehehehe).

"Dollar debasement will not print us into prosperity either. Why invest in RE of a country whose currency, per erich75, is being inflated away, and thus will eventually collapse? Better investment opportunities elsewhere, no? "

Because in a global economy, all currency is simply one currency.

"Yeah, don't argue with ericho. He still doesn't believe that lic is down on psf$ basis. "

Not from Spring of 2009.

"My gut tells me we ain't thru with rents declining. "

Just like how your guts told you this economy will get a double dip in the Fall of 2009.
Look how that turn out. Time to get a gut check.

"Because in a global economy, all currency is simply one currency"

please explain

"Dollar debasement will not print us into prosperity either. Why invest in RE of a country whose currency...... is being inflated away"

IMO, dollar debasement & higher taxes (esply healthcare), as well as the slow deflation of the NYC RE bubble, make me hesitant to buy now. I think as higher taxes & higher interest rates hit, prices will decline further. But, with higher RE tax & higher income taxes, it will be even more expensive to live in NYC, so I think higher income people will leave.

"Because in a global economy, all currency is simply one currency
please explain"

Check the price of Gold against all currencies over the past decade and you'll have your answer.

Gold is its own investment class, very different from RE. Please explain the rationale of investing in RE (of a country where jobs are being shipped away and currency is getting debased) vs. investment opportunities elsewhere?

One global economy.
Check out the 4 major indexes around the world (s&p, ftse, nikki & hang seng) over the past 2 years.

We're joint from hip to toes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^HSI,^FTSE,^GSPC

"Check the price of Gold against all currencies over the past decade and you'll have your answer"

its amazing how you find new ways to display your lack of understanding of economics.

Indices = stocks. Once again, not RE with its high carrying and transaction costs, not to mention illiquidity.

Lets try again. When 80% of financial jobs leave Manhattan for Asia (a la manufacturing in Detroit), will price of Manhattan condos rise because Hang Seng index rose?

"When 80% of financial jobs leave Manhattan for Asia (a la manufacturing in Detroit), will price of Manhattan condos rise because Hang Seng index rose?"

Yes, because a rise of Hang Seng index indicates the health of the global economy which essentially means a healthy US economy. A healthy US economy translate into MORE jobs and on and on....

"its amazing how you find new ways to display your lack of understanding of economics. "

Really? And this is coming from a person that expected another 20-30% decline in housing from Spring of 2009 and a double dip recession in the US. Sure Marco, sure...you know it all.

Flmao. The djia was at an all time high..... Well until it wasn't.

Marco,
You've been saying for the past 12-15 months that this global economy is running on fume and a double dip recession is imminent. Then please explain the rise of copper and silver prices (2 of the most economic sensitive metals) over the past 15 months? If your're Mr. Know it all, then explain why as prices have moved up over the past 15 months you've been calling for a double dip? You my friend is the one that don't understand simple simple and demand economics.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-parity-sends-canadians-south-for-homes-2010-04-06

"Dollar parity keeps Canadian buyers in U.S. real estate"

Wait, a Canadian holding the loonies buying U.S. assets! What da blood clot!

"You my friend is the one that don't understand simple simple and demand economics."

Apparently you also don't understand grammar. So entertaining!

"Apparently you also don't understand grammar. So entertaining!"

Okie dokie.
Whatevahs.

Tel dat tu W67thstret.

...
.....

"a rise of Hang Seng index indicates the health of the global economy which essentially means a healthy US economy"...

...tell that to poor suckers who invested in Detroit RE. Despite the rise of Hang Seng index along with global economy, Detroit RE is in full blown depression. Why? Because of JOBS (or rather lack thereof).

oh Enrique... oh enreique... $631ps... duplex, views, washer/dryer... even a toilet
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375671-condo-170-john-street-financial-district-new-york

wherez that put your PH "home" next to the projects?

Even funnier this 170 John douche home equity bug bought in 7-2001 for $800K or $431psf... now what if... what if.. we hit 2001 pricing? what does a $431psf 170 John PH duplex do for your LIC PowerHouse shitz hole?

I know I know... you bid on your unit based on the DJIA and you plan on pricing it based on it.

Thxs to Aboutready and SLS for the jewel of a short sale... just the beginning. Wait till RE taxes are set and IR starts their quarterly 25bps journey....

That's right 'richo, covet thou loonie.

"just the beginning."

Not that I'm siding with any one of you here, but it's been "just the beginning" since at least 2005 now. That stuff rings hollow after a while: http://bit.ly/EemA

well, bjw, the economy has been on the brink of recovery for quite some time.

the beginning takes quite awhile to come when the government is willing to throw trillions at the problem and banks are unwilling to foreclose because they don't want responsibility for the taxes and upkeep on properties they can't sell and they don't want to account for the losses on their books.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/04/06/the-national-housing-survey-and-the-real-estate-bear-market/

"My feeling, after going through the survey, is that we’re in for a housing bear market which will last many years, just as the housing bull market did. There will be substantial demand for houses for the foreseeable future, and that — along with government support — is going to prevent further sharp lurches downwards. But ultimately economic fundamentals have to prevail. It’s just going to take a while."

"..tell that to poor suckers who invested in Detroit RE. Despite the rise of Hang Seng index along with global economy, Detroit RE is in full blown depression. Why? Because of JOBS (or rather lack thereof)."

Even in the best of times Detriot was an in issue. Your point?

"oh Enrique... oh enreique... $631ps... duplex, views, washer/dryer... even a toilet
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375671-condo-170-john-street-financial-district-new-york"

Yes, a few short sales dictates the entire Manhattan housing market. What about the 2,300+ properties that that got sold last quarter??? Oh that's right. Forget those. Those aren't important.

Nice job there genius.

Q: what's a canadian BJ called?
A: Pig in a blanket.

wouldn't touch that loonie w/a 10 ft hockey stick.

bjw... "just the beginning." 0% Fed Funds Rate = beginning

Even in the best of times LIC was an issue... my point.. what a crazy bubble that ppl were willing to pay $600psf for LIC

As per your definition of genius => buying at tippy top of RE bubble in LIC

2300+ sold at heavily discounted prices... you do know that at a price of 0, demand is infinite.

"the beginning takes quite awhile to come when the government is willing to throw trillions at the problem and banks are unwilling to foreclose because they don't want responsibility for the taxes and upkeep on properties they can't sell and they don't want to account for the losses on their books."

Therein lies my point, ar. I have yet to come across a poster (or blogger, or journalist for that matter) who seems to have a strong grasp on this - much of the writing harps on whether or not the government should be doing so much, rather than what the actual effects will be long-term, at least beyond some throwaway sentence like the one you quoted ("But ultimately economic fundamentals have to prevail."). These mechanisms are too complex, too far reaching, and information travels way too fast in the internet/smartphone age for anyone to casually toss such a statement out and expect readers to buy it.

It is still a terrible time to buy and it will remain that way for some time.

Tax rates are going up sharply. And given that our government spends money like drunken sailors it will be a very long time before tax rates come down. If you make enough money to afford an apartment in Manhattan you are a rich fat cat and have a big bull's eye on your back. All in, Federal, State, Local tax rates will be over 50% next year for high income earners. The top marginal tax rate at teh Federal level goes up by 10% next year. (If you live in New York with children I can assure you that $250,0000 won't make you feel like a high earner) New York State and City taxes are also higher as are sales taxes. Property taxes are also higher. More taxes = less take home income = less money to spend on real estate = lower prices. Furthermore, the AMT reduces the benefit of the mortgage interest deduction and is particularly onerous for New Yorkers who itemize because of the high state taxes. Real estate also becomes a much less attractive investment because of health care reform. What does health care reform have to do with real estate? Very good question. Because of health care reform any capital gain (rents too) you make on real estate will not only be subject to higher cap gains rates but also be subject to the 3.8% medicare tax. That's because that capital gain is "unearned". Really? Really, according to Kathleen Sebelius. You didn't earn that money. Makes sense, right? Someone who sells a house and buys another house consumes more health care than someone who just stays put in their house? Don't they also consume more healthcare than someone who never buys a house?

It is still a terrible time to buy.

Nice, w67th. Did you also know that a "67" is a failed 69, where one participant just can't quite "reach" because his/her belly fat makes it physically impossible? True story.

But seriously, for you to say that $600 psf in LIC is insane in such a context-empty statement does nothing to advance the discussion here.

Shouldn't that be a 68? better do more crunches...

no no no bj. You take all the data and all the permutations and you parse out the 4 or 5 most relevant factors in a marketplace.

Take gold:
1) chinese/india demand for jewelry;
2) industrial use;
3) gold-buggers (i.e. investors, used for hedge against delflation).

These things drive price of gold.

In re:
1) historic bubble deflating;
2) carry cost rising;
3) "re is the greatest asset!" mentality - gone;
4) rents falling (alternative to buying);
5) high paying jobs;
6) easy credit

All 6 factor point down for NYC RE.

"WASHINGTON – Job openings rose in several sectors of the economy in February, including retail, manufacturing, transportation, restaurants and hotels, the Labor Department said Tuesday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100406/ap_on_bi_ge/us_job_openings

I thought there were no jobs.

"Even in the best of times LIC was an issue... my point.. what a crazy bubble that ppl were willing to pay $600psf for LIC"

I assume you're not a fan of park slope? Dumbo? And all the other neighborhoods outside of Manhattan.
Oh dip! That's right...Dumbo prices are still above 700-800 psf!!!

Must be driving you crazy eh girlfried?

Nope, it's a 67. 68, you can reach, but very uncomfortably and not to satisfaction.

About your factors: the mentality is not nearly as gone as you think it is. It'll take years to undo what's been "established." And I'm not so sure rents continue to fall from here so much on out. The job sitch is no sure thing, in either direction. But yes, the bubble has deflated, and yes, it's harder to get a mortgage than it had been. But overall, you're a bit trigger-happy to tick off the boxes.

160Kish jobs based on 12month+ outta work ppl taking temp jobs at 1/2 salary... yeah! i think? It's like saying US economy is improving based on Americans pushing out illegal immigrants as day laborers at Home Depot. Get a clue....

enrique... again... I'm trying to win the lotto by predicting the 6 numbers at the next drawing.... you keep telling me to pick the same 6 numbers as the last drawing.... I guess it's possible... but but but....

Where's the 20-30% down you promised since last Spring?

You're full of hot air and a pile of dog shit.

bjw, despite all that propping real estate markets are down significantly. and we have millions of foreclosures to work through. the income simply isn't there to fill the housing stock. corporations may do just fine, GM sold more cars in China than the US recently, but they're probably making them in China also, or will be soon.

regarding demographics, i recently read that approximately 13 million seniors will move to assisted housing by 2020 (currently one million live in assisted housing). the good news is these facilities have yet to be built so the construction will be a positive for the economy. the bad news, as i'm sure you can intuit, is that 13 million divided by 10 years equals 1.3 million a year. and that just happens to be the number that has been the estimated rate of household creation yearly (although that number may be highly optimistic as more young adults delay moving from the parents' home, people are forced to combine housing arrangements due to lower employment, possibility of reduced birthrates, and a likely net outflow in immigration, at least in the near term). granted some of those elders will move in couples, but far more will move as singles.

w67: "wouldn't touch that loonie w/a 10 ft hockey stick."

I completely understand, why would you get all looniefied when you already missed the boat?

Is it me or is there a common theme emerging with you...?

Ericho - I take your point about the Fed's track record. Printing money seems to be the scripted response in times like these.

Still, riddle me this: from your perspective, can you imagine a scenario where the feds toolkit was not sufficient to "manage" a crisis? If so, what would it look like? What would the unemployment rate have to be to give you pause that "normal" was a long way away? How about underwater mortgages? At what threshold do you stop and say it is gonna hit the fan? 50% underwater mortgage holders?

also - regarding the run up in prices of precious metals: do you remember just a year or two back when the price of a barrel of oil was skyrocketing? My recollection was that at the end of the day, that price was being manipulated by future or derivative traders.

.....(pure speculation) Is it possible that this could be the explanation with metals now?

"Even in the best of times Detriot was an in issue. Your point?"

LMAO!!! That IS the point, my precious. Even in the best of times (global economy chirping merrily and RE bubbling up to new highs), Detroit was in RE depression as jobs became extinct and local economy deteriorated.

Similarly, if Manhattan loses its financial jobs to outsourcing (already happening), RE will crash.

"Cost of money is only going to go up"

And then down again. And then up again. And then down again. Point being: Interest rates increase/decrease with every business cycle. You have a FREE call option imbedded in your mortgage and will likely have several refi opportunities over the life of a 15 or 30 year mortgage. A high cost of financing is temporary. But an inflated purchase price is forever...

spinny... my 10ft hockey was referencing ericho... you i like... but I do want to ask you... did you buy your PH when the loon was strong or weak? and if your wife left you and you had to sell and get back over the syrupland.. would you be in a better financial position or weaker, now that the loon is strong and nyc re is falling apart at the seams?

And for the love of pancakes plz tell me you get paid in loons or at least your wife, if either of your gets paid in gyros... oh well....

I agree with Jake.
So, what's the fate of NYC & for that matter, the USA?

Glad you're back w67. It's been booooring w/o you.

AR: ice floes. Cheap.

W67: must you bring up the loonie? I sold in '08 and felt smart. Now, it friggin' broke parity again. Never hit my 75 cent buy in during March.

I've been lucky with the loonie (and RE) while hopscotching back and forth across the border for the last 10yrs. Now we have a foot in both camps but more heavily weighted towards the usd -for better or worse. My wife will never leave me because I am an awesome husband and father (and the video tape that I keep in a safety deposit box). My wife's employer pays her taxes, which is kind of like getting paid in powerball money. I freelance... ; )

Glad you're back stirring the pot. I hope someday you find peace (and light) in a 500psf 3br. I'm really pulling for you, really. And if you must know, the terrace is absolutely freaking awesome and worth every syrupy penny. And making love under the stars -priceless. Maybe I'll plant a maple.

"I find it curious that Ali thinks that NYC in 2009 was "not a bad bet"" I find it curious that you find this curious. She's a broker in NYC, not Phoenix."

lol.

gooder to be back, dwell. Damn kids keep getting in the way :)

so tell me nyc10023, is spinny's apt as good as it gets? :)

Oh and FWIW, I AM A PROFESSIONAL "POT STIRRER." Believe me, NOTHING in the world would make me happier than a "rationally" priced "home." Oh and a maple plant from a PH to hit me in the head while walking in a windstorm, just enough damage to sue... but not to kill me... make sure your homeowner's policy allows planters on the PH, seriously.

Hope you're OK w67. Pot Stirrer? I 'd think you're more of a pot smoker.

Allz well in the west 60's. :)

Never did pot... I have an addictive personality.... once I started drugs, I'd go straight to Meth.... and those pictures of the bf after pics scarez the Bjesus outta w67... Look at me all like, referring to myself in the 3rd person... .

okay, nyc housing bears, explain why a 3 bedroom 3.5 bath condo in my building just went to contract for a record price for its line?

because someone really wanted it? because someone doesn't pay attention to comps? because the moon was full?

Why did an asteroid take out all the dinos? Cause shitz happens and there's always the $200mm poweball.

well, whatever the reason, it's the latest direct comp and I'm grateful.

Flmao. I wouldn't be financial planning based on some lemming buyer after the great recession. Flmao. Why don't you list for $3.7mm? And come back and report to w67? :)

lemming or not its a cash buyer

By definition a cash buyer is not a lemming. But a 'homeowner' who lives vicariously thru the lucky draw of her upstairs neighbor is ..., (fill in plz)

"okay, nyc housing bears, explain why a 3 bedroom 3.5 bath condo in my building just went to contract for a record price for its line?"

Not a bear...but i'll take a stab.

BECAUSE IT'S A NEW BULL MARKET IN HOUSING!!!

there..happy?

The asteroid was trying to take out LIC, but was a little too early.

"lemming or not its a cash buyer"

Cash buyer or not, until you have a few thousan more tx like such that the mean price in NY starts breaking records again, its an anecdote, not data.

"its an anecdote, not data"
Someone paying A RECORD value to live in the W90s in 2010. Hmmm, I'd say I like that anecdote. I've been on record for saying one of the characteristics of the NYC property bull market is that people were willing to pay very high generic prices for generic Manhattan property, but that the downturn would lead to widely disparate prices for actual quality differences. I'd say someone paying over $1,700 psf for an over 20 year old condo is an ANECDOTE that suggests people are still willing to pay up special attributes.

"I assume you're not a fan of park slope? Dumbo? And all the other neighborhoods outside of Manhattan.
Oh dip! That's right...Dumbo prices are still above 700-800 psf!!!"

Of course DUMBO was doing an easy $1200 psf before the crash.

So the cheaper neighborhoods should be even less.