Market temp.

I'm priced out forever.

it's all just good, w67th.

It's better than bad, it's good.

I'd like "professional" shill reports.... ya know.. from jimnutz and his kin....it should be going "bonkers" now that april has passed.

Interesting question, W67. Lots of lemmings on the juice, stuff is closing left, right and center. Places that are hard to finance (THs with RS/RC tenants) are getting nice juicy price cuts. Like I say a million times (or maybe I haven't), things get closer to equilibrium faster when you lose the ability to finance.

agree nyc10023.. thatz why i posed it :)

seemed like when the lemming juice was on full spigot... alot alot alot of brokers (including Urbandigs) were here saying the mkt was "hot." Now where are all the brokers? In my gut I "knew" the nyc re mkt would FALL off a cliff post april. Summer is gonna be a long long long hot one for sellers who "mispriced" in 1st qtr.

Just like I told ya,.....

Time will tell. My target apartments are still closing at prices a lot higher than I'm willing to pay, and pretty quickly. Would still dearly love to see prices fall off a cliff.

You agree that the market is strong for financeable properties? Wow. You amaze me.

nyc10023

"financeable properties"?! That was so last month.

Home Loan Demand Sinks to 13-Year Low
Published: Wednesday, 19 May 2010 | 7:06 AM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37228243

Demand for loans to buy U.S. homes shriveled to a 13-year low last week, following the expiration of federal tax credits, while near-record low mortgage rates stoked refinancing, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday...

"The data continue to suggest that the tax credit pulled sales into April at the expense of the remainder of the spring buying season," Michael Fratantoni, the industry group's vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

see things as having bottomed a year ago with trade 25-30% off peak---with a little 5-10% uptick since bottom---lotsa stale (but decent quality) stuff trading through 12/09--decent market this spring 15-20% off peak--but now quieting with lots of supply starting to turn up--i think things will soften through the summer/fall

compelling is the shadow inv that has shown up in places like chelsea and tbeca, at what seem to be absurd prices---1500psf and way higher--time will tell, but i think these prices will have to come down significantly through summer/fall if any inv is to move--from the highline one can see gobs of inventory now listed at very hi prices--cant fly if you ask me

Market extremely hot at the sub-$1 million level -- 2Q reports should still show increased volume in that area -- I see historical pricing as @wbottom does, with a recent uptick of 5-10% off a 25%-30% trough.

Around $2-3-$5 million, I have lotsa buyers sniffing around, but not yet ready to jump into the water. My guess is that if a meteor doesn't hit the equities market, half those people buy in the fall at roughly current prices and half drop away.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Ali what part of Germany's ban on cds, 1000 pts swings, and euro parity (any one of which would be considered meteor by me) is bullish for NYC re in the $3mm range?

w67, I'm not saying bullish or bearish in terms of prices, I'm just giving you the psychology of the people I know. They kept their wallets in their pants a year ago, and now they see economic recovery (at least in their fields -- new contracts, etc.) and feel it's an okay time to buy.

ali r.

ali,

I genuinely appreciate your many contributions to this board but as a trained statistician I am dubious of your numbers.

2nd Quarter consists of April, May and June. On Urbandigs' current/old website at the end of April (and the end of the tax credit) there were 331 contracts signed in a week for Manhattan. Here in the middle of May, that number is down to 234. Over a 40% drop as you move toward what should be the peak of the RE season. This does not bode well for the rest of the Quarter! Last year the market got a late start so I'm very skeptical that Manhattan will be up y-o-y on either # of sales or prices.

For the record, Urbandigs has made the same prediction about 2nd quarter as you have, but I have yet to see any data that would support this conclusion. It will be interesting to see the March Case-Shiller data next week to see if the NY market can break 6 straight months of declining prices.

The contracts signed figure, especially in this market is riddled in shillery .
That's been averaging 1000 plus(30 day average) for some time now. More important is the quarterly closings figures (neighborhood of the last one was around 2100) a 700 per month figure.
Let's see what Q2 brings.

Wbottom,

If you're going to cite statistics, please follow the rules. If you're not going to use established benchmarks, please state precisely what your numbers refer to.
Are the numbers you cite for Manhattan, NYC, the NYC Metro (usually CMSA) or three blocks on the UWS that you really, really like?
What dataset are you using or are you just pulling numbers out of the air?
How do you value new condos in shadow inventory?
As it is, without stating any of the details, your statistics are completely meaningless. I find it rather discouraging that Ali manages to agree with meaningless numbers...

I say this because the most established statistical benchmark for NY metro (despite its many flaw wrt Manhattan) does not support your claims. According to the most recent Non-Seasonally Adjusted Case-Shiller Index for February 2010, NY metro has now gone lower than we've seen since 2004, beating out the lows sustained in Spring 2009. The numbers follow. Please note that through February, the data shows six straight months of declines. Perhaps next week when the March data is released it will show an uptick, but I'm not holding my breath.

Case-Shiller NON-seasonally adjusted NY metro data:

January 2004 163.63
February 2004 164.92
March 2004 166.61
April 2004 168.30
May 2004 170.52
June 2004 172.90
July 2004 175.74
August 2004 177.93
September 2004 179.79
October 2004 181.90
November 2004 183.69
December 2004 185.16
January 2005 187.19
February 2005 189.29
March 2005 192.17
April 2005 194.10
May 2005 195.96
June 2005 197.77
July 2005 199.86
August 2005 202.33
September 2005 204.83
October 2005 207.64
November 2005 210.30
December 2005 212.68
January 2006 213.50
February 2006 214.47
March 2006 214.33
April 2006 214.97
May 2006 215.57
June 2006 215.83
July 2006 215.25
August 2006 214.34
September 2006 214.09
October 2006 214.29
November 2006 214.24
December 2006 213.79
January 2007 212.78
February 2007 212.52
March 2007 212.40
April 2007 211.62
May 2007 210.51
June 2007 209.49
July 2007 208.37
August 2007 207.18
September 2007 206.39
October 2007 205.54
November 2007 204.38
December 2007 202.09
January 2008 200.44
February 2008 198.31
March 2008 196.52
April 2008 194.72
May 2008 194.23
June 2008 194.74
July 2008 193.70
August 2008 193.48
September 2008 191.66
October 2008 189.66
November 2008 186.52
December 2008 183.45
January 2009 180.93
February 2009 177.84
March 2009 173.60
April 2009 170.69
May 2009 171.17
June 2009 172.37
July 2009 174.16
August 2009 175.47
September 2009 175.33
October 2009 174.89
November 2009 172.98
December 2009 171.78
January 2010 171.22
February 2010 170.46

truthskr10,

I agree with you completely about the shillery, but it is consistent with the pattern of a significant drop-off in sales at the end of April and the demise of the $8K tax credit. See my earlier post in this thread on "Home Loan Demand Sinks to 13-Year Low." The article mentioned pointed out that there was a significant drop in mortgage applications at the end of April. Add this to the Case-Shiller data and you start to get dubious about the happy news some folks are spreading.

In other words, if you factor out the biases in the shillery, you can often glean very useful information from flawed datasets.

Sis
And I wasn't countering anything you were saying, the 331 and 234 numbers are both fueled with the same monthly shil juice and wasn't meant to detract from your point(s).
Just to point out, especially to brokers who love this figure for state of affairs in NYC RE, often ignoring true sales and the effects of a declining price per sq ft.

i only follow my new system now...man, I cant tell you the difference. Since you guys are so passionate about this, Ill give you guys a sneak peak when it comes to CONTRACT SIGNED data, month to month broken down by past 3 years so you can see trend:

http://www.urbandigs.com/sneak-peak1.jpg

Finally, a sneak peak at PENDING SALES trend broken down by price point both <$1m and the $1m-$2m price point:

http://www.urbandigs.com/sneak-peak2.jpg

Tons more will be at your disposal soon. Im burnt out guys. Heading to Europe for 2 weeks June 1-June16th, alpha testing starting in 2 weeks, beta testing when I get back..Launch hopefully soon after that.

on 2nd sneak peak, green line is for left axis, yellow line is for right axis...obviously we didnt integrate full css stylesheet or tweak visual enhancements yet. That will be at very end.

UD, reminds me... didn't look at his inventory widget in a while. We hit 9k again! Then came down a bit, hovering at 8950 or so...

Must be that darn January effect again.

I have Active inventory at 7,774 right now.

Okay, we will see how this works. The beginning of a long multi-part post, but I think the length is worth it, albeit, I'm a stats geek. Let's see how the data looks when I cut and paste the first pairs of numbers.

Month ACRIS-RS UD-PS

Jan-08 1957 1050
Feb-08 1925 1100
Mar-08 1931 1400
Apr-08 1958 1500
May-08 2000 1625
Jun-08 2825 1400
Jul-08 2132 1250
Aug-08 2117 1260
Sep-08 2264 800
Oct-08 2464 625
Nov-08 1433 510
Dec-08 1616 520
Jan-09 1100 490
Feb-09 1126 700
Mar-09 1114 900
Apr-09 1249 900
May-09 1313 1150
Jun-09 1709 1490
Jul-09 1645 1300
Aug-09 2060 1025
Sep-09 1711 1025
Oct-09 1883 1250
Nov-09 1638 1230
Dec-09 2126 1150
Jan-10 1452 900
Feb-10 1456 1150
Mar-10 1470 1375
Apr-10 772 1675

Ok, the data doesn't look great, but it's legible.

The first column is the month.
The second column, "ACRIS-RS", is raw "Rolling Sales" data by month. (Totaled by myself in Excel.)
The third column, "UD-PS",is data from Urbandigs "Pending Sales".
(See earlier post in this thread from UD. TY to UD! I followed UD's link to the chart and then eyeballed the UD chart to come up with the numbers for UD-PS.)

your acris rs data is from nyc.gov? if so, keep in mind a few things. Im not sure if that includes all considerations, including 0 cash considerations, and alot of other things like garages, storages, etc..im telling you, lots of crazy stuff in acris.

also, acris is all recorded sales. dont assume that all recorded sales match up to all inventory! I wont answer these questions now. the site is not launched, and how we measure things is not released. I would strongly advise holding off interpretations to your own work until launch. I cant begin to tell you what we had to do to offer an inventory side measurement platform for this market.

UD's data is PENDING sales (contracts signed) while the ACRIS data is actual sales. Given that it takes two to three months to close a sale (from Pending Sale to Closing) you need to lag the UD-PS series by two or three months to get it to match up reasonably well with the ACRIS-RS series.

If you add the lag, you can definitely see a relationship between the two series- BUT there is a MAJOR caveat! The two series run roughly parallel, but CONVERGE toward the end. That CONVERGENCE helps me to understand why UD sees the glass as half full, and I see it as half empty.

OK, let's throw some RED MEAT TO THE BEARS!!! Can I get a growl from W67 et al Please!

If you look at the ACRIS data, you will note that the LOWEST NUMBER OF RECORDED SALES PER MONTH SINCE JAN 2008 was APRIL 2010!

But SHOULDN'T we throw the BULLS some FEED As WELL!

CURIOUSLY ENOUGH, in the UD series, April 2010 also happens to be the highest number of Pending Sales since JAN 2008.

How can this be?!

http://www.urbandigs.com/sneak-peak3.jpg

last one...pending vs 90day MA sales

again...i strongly advise not digging yet until you see how we measure..my pending will never total the acris figures

> I have Active inventory at 7,774 right now.

Nothing to compare that too... can you post the long term active inventory trend?

dont want to yet..still researching settings for it. cant do before 2008, because we removed new dev inventory that had no prior active status. to understand the charts, you must understand the design of the platform and the rules that govern the data..sorry, please try to be patient. its taking long, because I decided to do it right, and delay release of it

UD As for your comments "if so, keep in mind a few things."

Having looked at the ACRIS data, I'm fully aware there is a LOT of dirt in it. I'm assuming the dirt is random, which may well not be the case, but I think it does help me to understand why I see the market differently.

The ACRIS data, because it is raw, winds up being higher than your series - which on the face of it is silly, but the two series do seem to "co-vary" relatively well if you add a two or three month time lag.

AGAIN, thank you for posting your data, but BEAR with me, I'm not done yet and I'd much appreciate your take on my ultimate conclusion! (-:

i wish youd save it..the design of the new site will allow for your ongoing conclusions below each metric. save it!

UD. You've been extremely helpful in providing your sneak peaks. They are very much appreciated BUT I'm trying to reconcile my point of view with your data and I can't BEAR the cognitive dissonance.

After doing my own charts, and looking at your 90 day MA on sales, I'm more convinced that there is a major issue which NEITHER of us can answer with the data at hand, but I see it in both my ACRIS charts and your "pending vs 90day MA sales" chart.

http://www.urbandigs.com/sneak-peak3.jpg

(That said, I'm confused by the two different scales for the X-axis in sneak-peak3???)

So here's THE ISSUE with the sneak peak chart: if you were to lag the two data series appropriately, you get the two series to line up nicely EXCEPT if you were to look at the FIRST HALF of the chart, it would seem that there are MORE SALES than PENDING SALES on the older half of the chart, and MORE PENDING SALES than SALES in the more recent SECOND HALF of the CHART.

GIVEN this discrepancy, my hypothesis would be that over time you are getting A LOWER RATIO OF COMPLETED SALES across time - which would be consistent with the notion that banks are tightening up credit and more people are exercising the mortgage contingency in their contract when they can't get a mortgage.

So, it would seem that the number of contracts are going up - which you have emphasized and so you see the Manhattan RE market as half full, while I look at the actual number of completed contracts and see the world as less than half full.

I'll try to keep an open mind, but I need to reconcile April 2010 which has the lowest number of ACRIS sales yet the highest number of contracts since January 2008!

"if you were to look at the FIRST HALF of the chart, it would seem that there are MORE SALES than PENDING SALES on the older half of the chart"

This is due to the REMOVAL of new devs from our pending sales data because developers did NOT create a record for unreleased units, yet they sold and closed. They were NOT tracked by any measurement until early 2008, when these developers mass uploaded 1000s of new records of previously unreleased units, as a brand new record and with the first history status update as CONTRACT SIGNED. I researched all of these, and they were new dev units signed into contract between early 2006 and early 2007. There were no records, so no data available.

Again, Im trying to tell you, wait until we launch so you understand the systems. We worked 11 months ONLY on the data. There are reasons we did certain things. In the end, the system was designed to measure todays market and the future existing resale market for changes as they occur real time. As you go back, the data gets of less quality. Why do you think we removed new devs and all data prior to JAN 2008.

A note to the reader on the April 2010 ACRIS data. The 772 sales listed is almost certainly TOO Low. In looking at the data, it would appear that when they created the report that they actually trimmed off the last few days in April 2010.
Number of sales by each full week in April as well as the undercounted last week:
250
263
148
15

The average for the first three full weeks of April equals 220. To "normalize" the last week, I would add 205 to the total for week (205+15=220).

Adding 205 additional sales to the ACRIS total for April still leaves it under a 1000, the only 3-digit monthly total in the ACRIS series since January 2008. This does not sound bullish to me!

Perhaps ACRIS left out even more and will add more into April in future reports, but the pending sales and actual sales seem to be diverging...

UD, I do hope you realize I'm not trying to antagonize you, I'm just trying to reconcile different sets of related data and am experiencing massive cognitive dissonance. I could be wrong, but things just don't add up.

"This is due to the REMOVAL of new devs from our pending sales data"

Yes, that explains it for your data, but how do you explain that the ACRIS data is so much lower in the latter time period. Has the city started cleaning up their data? Its possible but I kind of doubt it.

Looking at your sneak-peak3 graph, the biggest gap between Pending Sales and Actual sales is GREATEST at the END. (Ignoring the parts of the graph where Actual Sales are HIGHER than PENDING SALES.)

THERE seems to be a divergence, and the most logical explanation to me is that more contracts are failing across time. I could be wrong... Just saying!

its ok..your a data guy and you like to dig and interpret. I was frustrated too about 10 months ago until I understood the data and how we could fix it to mean something and enhance accuracy/timeliness.

Ill say this again: In the end, the system was designed to measure todays market and the future existing resale market for changes as they occur real time. As you go back, the data gets of less quality.

As for the gap at the end, it seems to have started in Feb-March, going into April. So, if my pending is correct, we should see sales start to move up as the surge in deals signed in late Jan-feb-march-april, start to close at a 2-4 months lag. For now, it looks like Acris is following the decline in pending sales from Nov-Feb or so...

The reintroduction of mortgage contingencies into the market would logically drive the contract close percentage down. It certainly wouldn't drive it up. AND -- it should have the effect of increasing overall contract volume -- as it creates a free option in the market, which increases volume.

"dont want to yet..still researching settings for it. cant do before 2008, because we removed new dev inventory that had no prior active status. to understand the charts, you must understand the design of the platform and the rules that govern the data..sorry, please try to be patient. its taking long, because I decided to do it right, and delay release of it"

UD, totally I hear you, not rushing you, I just thought because you gave the number when I was talking about trend.

But if the "old" stat is all we have, interesting to note that we hit another (high) milestone again.

sis, you know Case-Shiller doesn't include co-ops, right?

makes it meaningless for Manhattan. I don't think many people on this board are buying single-family houses in Westchester.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Ali, this ain't a psycology board. NYC re up or down?

And another thing, does today's mkt action feel like a meteorite or just a close call? Cause to me it has all the markings of a massive capitulation movement where we test march 09 lows, if not in the next 2 months, then in the fall as the retail buyers start to nibble back, watch the fast money move out in a hurry.

Ali,

Yes I'm quite aware that CS doesn't include coops, or condos or multi-family dwellings, which eliminates a huge portion of Manhattan RE - hence my clearly stated disclaimer "despite its many flaws wrt Manhattan."

I strongly DISAGREE with your assertion that CS is "meaningless" for Manhattan. Houses in Westchester are "comparable goods" and home purchasers are making comparisons between values in Manhattan and other areas in the Metro area. According to the "Ali Assertion" about CS, if a 4-bedroom chateau in Westchester is selling for $5, and a 4-bedroom Coop in Manhattan is selling for $5 Million, the "rational" customer is going to choose the Manhattan property because the Manhattan lifestyle is so unique that you just can't put a price tag on it!

So, I don't buy into the notion that Manhattan is an island unto itself, while CS is a well-established index with clear, established rules. You borrowed Wbottom's statistics but W doesn't state any of the details. It's pulling numbers out of the air. No one does an index on comparable properties across time for Manhattan so everyone else is basing their numbers off of things like median price or average price across time. Given the very significant changes in the composition in the market across time, these numbers are practically useless for comparison sake.

Assuming that you're still not going to agree with my use of CS because of its well-know shortcomings wrt Manhattan, would you care to address the ACRIS numbers for MANHATTAN that I present in this same thread???

The ACRIS numbers represent EVERYTHING in Manhattan (Coops, Condos, et cetera), and those numbers show that the LOWEST number of properties sold since January 2008* was in APRIL 2010 - which is the first month of the 2nd Quarter - a Quarter you claim is extremely HOT! Are these numbers meaningless?

*For the record, the new LOW in ACRIS for April 2010 probably goes back further than January 2008, but I only crunched the numbers since January 2008.

I suspect May and June will be better in terms of closings because of the tax credit, but new lows in closed sales do not strike me as indicative of a "hot" market. Perhaps the number of people who have left the RE business make the remaining few seem busier? Or perhaps as the data would seem to suggest, more contracts are being signed, but fewer are completed closings?