Market temp 2

you are forgetting one thing, many people wanted those $8K and were somewhat irrational before April 30th deadline. some didn't even realize that if they go into contract on a coop by end of April, there's no way in hell they'll close by end of June.

so the PENDUP DEMAND is now gone and we're back to brokers sitting there with their phones quiet.

the worst part of it is that the interest rates have gone down in past few weeks and those $8K can be made up through lower mortgage payments. most people don't see it that way and just see the money at the end of the year.

Milly. I'm not in the mood. Go back to sleep with your cats. You don't have a husband, you have no children, your 'career' barely allowed you to live in a studio rental for 30 yrs in NYC, but no you 'timed' the perfect bottom of the greatest re bubble known to mankind.

Stick around se, cause you are the worst kind of SE bear, the kind who calls bottom when she buys.

Grumpy, grumpy.

You need a shot of lemming juice with a side of broker-babble to get yourself perked up again.

Save the drama for your momma w67. And milly don't assume street has the slightest clue what he's talking about, I was the one who bought at the bottom. Now the bear game is all about scanning headlines for the latest storm cloud that might finally lead them to a fresh minty condo, adorned with authentic grassy Polynesian tiki bar and hot rock massage cabana, for a deep world crisis or Times Square dirty bomb, discount.

You decide who's the worst kind of SE bear.

The worst kind of SE bear is the kind who picks up the -2% carry asset that has 10% transaction costs, squints an maybe sees a 3% gain ignoring carry and transaction costs, and then brags about it. All the while missing a 65% gain in the real cheap market that hit lows nearly no one is arguing we'll ever see again in our lifetimes.

w67th not sure why they allow you to post here....you are such an ahole.......mhillqt...very valid points!

I have never seen so many successful people that know so much about both the equity and real estate markets continuously post on a message board all day, every day.

people who write like this......lots of ellipses......and buy in Murray Hill at the same time......like mhillqt and eastside and chelapt.....should stick together

nwt, it's just sad.

bob, you haven't spent much time on the financial blogs, have you?

C'mon guys-girls, don't pile on Mhill. Ellipses make me think of Barbara Cartland. You should hate on me. I know what's right (rationally) and still continue to own. I am giving away my children's inheritance and we're gonna be burdens on them in our old age bcs we refuse to sell in the last gasp of a bull market.

Who the hell said we're successful? I'm kicking 50% of my take-home pay to petrfitz for my LES tenement.

God bless you, nyc10023. You know what that kind of money would do to kids long-term? Spoil them rotten into being barely-functioning adults. Best to burn it now on RE rather than have them burn it on RE in 25 years.

the ellipses do create a sort of breathy tone

bob420, ding ding whe have a winner!

w67 and AR....you 2 are made for each other........i hope one day you will find better things to do with your supposedly very successful lives rather than waste it on trashing people.......what a waste of energy on this planet.....ever try to perhaps try being kind.....it might change your whole perspective on life...

Relax nada, street can stand up for himself. I appreciate that you're a numbers guy but I really don't get the incessant need to rehash the same data over and over like it will somehow drill some sense into the 1000 or so people a month who continue to choose buying in spite of it. I wonder what would compel someone, sporting a similar proclivity for bottom line numbers, to take the jump into the market at this time? Or is it your position that none of the numbers guys have bought? And what about this assumption that those who bought have somehow missed out on the 65% market gains? Consider the run up in equities, coupled with the run down in RE and you have, in my mind, a favorable opportunity to get into the RE market, if that's your goal. Hoping to squeeze out the last remaining drops of decline before buying seems a lot like you are looking for an excuse not to buy. BTW, any bold statements I may make about my personal decision is more designed to froth up the discussion than it is a statement with any basis in verifiable fact. I also enjoy dropping pork chops into piranha tanks.

nah, 67th is more of a free weights/squuatz kind of guy. I'm all about the machines.

Spinny, first of all, I love pork chops, so thanks!

I'm not making an assumption that all those who bought somehow missed the 65% runup, simply that you who claims "I was the one who bought at the bottom" missed the real bottom. I hang out here and rehash the same data with different people so I learn about how people make financial decisions, how they think about it, which in turn helps me with my investments. I'm fine if 1000 people a month continue to pay high prices for condos, especially as investments, so that more will be built for me to rent on the cheap.

From discussions with people here, I have come to the conclusion that (a) most people cannot value assets without looking at price; (b) most people cannot determine the growth rate of an asset without looking at past growth rates; (c) most people's sense of history is relatively short; and (d) some people gloss over losses by rationalizing. This helped me tremendously last year in moving forward with asset purchases during a time of great fear.

"Consider the run up in equities, coupled with the run down in RE and you have, in my mind, a favorable opportunity to get into the RE market, if that's your goal."

See (a), (b), and (c).

First of all, milly piggybacked on my request for mkt temp based on my feeling that post April we'd see massive slowdown in re. Milly comes back with 4 brokers telling me how great the mkt is and how she is so so so happy to be an owner. It's like Michael Jackson telling people how awesome it is to be white.

Spinny, see a, b and c. Flmao nada, you are spot on when it comes to re. Look at kspeak using every ounce of her Econ past to come up for justification to buy re last qtr. But it was the home tax credit that pushed her over the ledge.

Nyc1023, doesn't our traditions dictate we leave our children with a better future?., and for me that includes a non bubble based random monetary success, call me old fashioned.

Aboutready, much more swimming this year, I guess it's the aging process... Need more cardio.

Eastside. Was the bubble kind to you?

inonada: "From discussions with people here, I have come to the conclusion that (a) most people cannot value assets without looking at price; (b) most people cannot determine the growth rate of an asset without looking at past growth rates; (c) most people's sense of history is relatively short; and (d) some people gloss over losses by rationalizing."

Ain't that the truth!

yes, well said inonada... as usual.

W67: maybe I know too many "rich" kids with safety nets who screw up and too many "poor" kids without safety nets who don't. Maybe my kids will just marry your kids (I'll make sure they commingle their inheritance $ and don't get prenups). Maybe.

Inonada: interesting, so the boards here helped you go into equities last spring?

Just to be clear, it's not that I wasn't in the market previously, and it's not like I put my whole wad in the market in March. After the spanking I (and many people) received, it wasn't the funnest of decisions to see your investments cut by 20, 30, 40, or even close to 50% at the bottom of the bottom and say, "Hmmm, let me double down". People's views on RE helped me understand (perhaps incorrectly) that most people do not think in long-term fundamentals, so perhaps this long-term fundamental under-pricing relative to risk I was perceiving had something to it. So I bought little by little a significant amount. Now, it could have all been dumb luck, and it may all disappear next month, but that's how the board helped me.

Of course, I had to tell myself repeatedly to stop blabbering on this board, and to go find myself some great values out there, because they weren't going to be there in NYC RE. The stock market was at extremely attractive valuations from a fundamental perspective, yet few people were talking about it. Maybe that's the nature of an out-of-favor vs. bubble asset: no one cares to discuss it, yours truly included.

FTR, I am receiving a spanking these days, but I am again getting this itching sensation to reach into my pocket once more to put to work some more long-term money. Maybe it's just crabs?

Hell, what am I saying? Top-to-bottom was more than 50% in the S&P, wasn't it? I guess it's like when you get hit with serious trauma and the brain shuts down and blacks out.

* sarcasm on *

But, let me state that I did NOT lose ANY money during that time because I did not sell. In fact, those positions continued to provide me POSITIVE CASH FLOW in the form of dividends every quarter. Furthermore, any make-believe mark-to-market losses perceived by the idiots out there was replaced by income, so I did not lose money ever under any circumstance whatsoever.

* sarcasm off *

nada, i've been watching very carefully. and being very averse to volatility, had i gotten back into the market i now realize i would have exited in a timely enough fashion. as i was lucky enough to do previously.

my problem is that i believe the possibility of a sudden crash is too great. cowardly, yes, but i'm staying in cash and wondering what i will do this time when things seem to bottom and the gov't sends some additional message to the markets that they're here to help forever. at some point, it seems there will be no more messages to send.

AR: yep. You would have sold at least some. I did buy some metals & energy index funds when I was in college with summer job $ and I waited 10 years (!) before I saw any gains.

AR, at what price would you find the S&P fairly valued for a long-term holding period? At what price would you find it attractively valued?

In: We thought it was very attractively priced last spring. Just too disorganized to put the call into the broker. Of course, thought it had gone up too much by Sept to do anything.

i thought about going back in after i realized that i had underestimated the power of gov't intervention and had totally not anticipated extend and pretend for the underperforming loans. oddly, this would have been a perfect market for me as i don't care if i get in at the bottom and i don't feel the need to hit the top. like 10023 i got lazy, perhaps stubborn, and there is that gloomy feeling i've been carrying around lately.

but in answer to your question, that's the thing. i wouldn't call myself a day trader, but i'm not a buy and hold person either, although i have been in the past. i think partly it's a function of age, partly the fact that i'm limited to funds and partly because i'm not seeing any real indication that we'll turn ourselves around in a meaningful fashion over this decade or so. i'm hoping for signs that i'm wrong, but frankly i think the money i do make over the next decade will come from the eventual rise in interest rates and letting my cash work for me that way, hopefully outpacing inflation. with emerging economies and population growth one assumes that the value of goods and services produced over time will increase (partly at least through our efforts to solve our food, energy, pollution, health, etc. issues), but it's the time frame that discourages me.

but i'm working on being flexible. i have no problem changing my mind, and would love to find reasons to do so. if you note any do share.

Yes, inaction is easier. But one concern I had when my partner said that stuff was looking "cheap" was the prospect of reduced earnings.