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I just became a huge bear after reading this

Started by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
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Response by columbiacounty
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

Unless you're a bull?

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Response by somewhereelse
over 15 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

I just thought about this... if we double dip... Democrats are toast.

Obama will never hear the end of it (its not his fault, but he's never going to hear the end of it).
And the Tea Party blows out the democrats.

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Response by nyc10023
over 15 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

Yes, and the rich will get even richer. Think the Tea Party is going to revamp Wall Street? Nah.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Double dip just became a very real possibility. Add to that Obama just "fired" his directory of national intelligence who clearly fairly or unfairly has a terrible record.

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Response by alanhart
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007

Stay the course ... can't vote out a prez in the midst of a national crisis. He'll get four terms, like Franklin D.R.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

I totally missed the Yen story. I think it's huge.

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Yen calls surged to a 15-month high versus puts on bets the rally in Japan’s currency against Australia’s dollar will force investors to reverse carry trades, making it more expensive to hedge against losses on the strategy.

Investors who borrowed yen to purchase higher-yielding currencies in Australia, Brazil, South Africa and New Zealand lost 12 percent this month as the European debt crisis triggered declines in growth-related currencies, Bloomberg data show. The strategy, known as the carry trade, earned 40 percent last year after losing more than 30 percent in the 2008 financial crisis.

“It’s the massive unwinding,” said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “That’s basically what happens when everybody has the same trade -- to protect against what everybody else is afraid of you have to pay a tremendous premium.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-20/yen-calls-surge-versus-puts-on-carry-trade-s-massive-unwind-.html

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Response by alanhart
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007

"Add to that Obama just "fired" his directory of national intelligence who clearly fairly or unfairly has a terrible record."

HUH???????????? What does that have to do with the price of cubic zirconium?

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Speaks to Obama's record. Add security issues to Economic ones and Democrats look awful.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

“This is not a typical retracement,” El-Erian, 51, whose firm runs the world’s biggest bond fund, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News. “We are in uncharted waters on account of several issues, including what is going on in Europe and other important structural regime changes. In economic terms, European developments are unambiguously bad for global growth.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPcF.fPJgadU&pos=3

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Response by somewhereelse
over 15 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

> Yes, and the rich will get even richer. Think the Tea Party is going to revamp Wall Street? Nah.

nyc, totally. I don't mean they're right, at all.
I'm just saying they're going to use this. This will unfortunately be an easy sell for them.

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Response by alanhart
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007

"Speaks to Obama's record. Add security issues to Economic ones and Democrats look awful."

Or it means Obama runs a tight ship and knows when to let go of underperforming appointees.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Alan, This is politics. There are no friends. As soon as you are a liability, " a friend" approaches you and suggest you resign. This occurs in every administration.
This is nothing new.

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Response by SkinnyNsweet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 408
Member since: Jun 2006

Could someone summarize the document for me, please?

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Response by The_President
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009

yes, I'm waiting for a summary too. I'm not reading that crap.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
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Response by hofo
over 15 years ago
Posts: 453
Member since: Sep 2008

Come on. Yes the US markets are down about 10% in a month but if you look at YTD, is down only 3 - 4%. After last year's rally, giving up 10% is not quite that bad.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Its not where we've been but where we are going.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

can always count on the yale bitch to raise the level of discourse. What else does one expect from the projects.

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

RS, did the drink loosen you up? fuck you.

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

oh, and how nasty. to equate socioeconomic status with intelligence, or "level of discourse".

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Response by malthus
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009

Summary is that China is a huge bubble and export-led economies don't work in the long run. A lot of people have been saying this for a quite a while (without the Andy Warhol references). The question is only when and how hard.

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

yes, malthus, many people have been saying this for some time. and RS obviously reads the economic news regularly. so how this came as new news escapes me.

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Response by malthus
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009

And you guys are missing the fact that the Teabaggers actually have a candidate running now, which is great news. Now we can see what teabaggery actually entails other than blaming everyone else for the country's problems. Freedom to discriminate? Yay. Now there is a platform for change.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

This is what a brain exposed to MSNBC turns into...
Advocating a fiscally responsible government does not equate with bigotry.
Nice Try.

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Response by malthus
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009

Riversider, Put down the WSJ editorial section, turn off youtube and catch up on the last few days of news and come back to us.

For the record, I didn't say anything about bigotry. You did. And thank you. Because that will be the conclusion of most people when they hear Rand Paul talk about repealing parts of the Civil Rights Act.

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Freedom to discriminate? Yay. Now there is a platform for change.

Yes you did..

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And not that big on the WSJ, its a minor read. but nice try.

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

log off zero hedge.

the teaparty is the answer to my prayers. go teaparty.

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Response by malthus
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009

One doesn't need to be a bigot to discriminate. One could argue economic reasons. Shouldn't one have the right to do what one wants in my business without the federal government telling you what to do? Or do you beleive that the federal government does have a role in regulating private business?

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
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Response by sjtmd
over 15 years ago
Posts: 670
Member since: May 2009

My two Euros on this - the last recession never was allowed to "run its' course". TARP, cash for clunkers, and all the other gov't "fixes" threw money at the problem. No significant long term solutions (let's see what last night's finance reform passing will do). So this is not really a "double dip". The aspirin we took is merely wearing off, and the disease is still present,

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

sjtmd, it will be interesting to see where they time the end of the "first" recession if we do slide back. with yesterday's leading indicators turning negative (and so soon after the "gains"), i'm inclined to agree with you on the double dip criteria

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Market is keying off of exchange rates. Swiss seem to be supporting the Euro and the Yen is rising more than the Japanese Government would like. I'd look to Japan/Ausie movements for key of what's going on. There are global currents at work here and this is not just about Greece anymore.
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China is another scary story. The Chinese don't want their currency to escalate very much. Their profit margins are small(2%). The analogy I read liked was that water will not boil at 99 degrees centigrade. The Hugh Hendry piece made a great deal of sense. The Chinese model has problems, huge investment without an increase in wealth. Consumption growth is not matching investment growth. China is over-investing. He may be saying these things because hes selling a fund taking a bearish view on China but his argument is intriguing.
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And his quote on bubbles is great if not original, that financial crisis are like pretty girls, difficult to describe in abstraction but are instantly recognizable when seen. Sure feels like all this global instability with regard to out of whack exchange rates and currency reserve imbalances can only lead to an ultimate violent realignment.

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