cpi shows inflation over 9% using 1980 methodology

A pound of coffee is higher today than it was 1,3 & 5 years ago. I'd hardly call coffee a falling commodity.

Sorry Jason, but P&G doesn't make coffee.

And RS's data points, coffee and cream cheese, far outweigh any general trends.

or, i should say, his citarella and fairway bought goods, because that is typical american consumption.

iPads going down, health care costs up, transportation(mta) up, food up, education up, rents up,

More healthcare costs covered by the government with Obamacare.
More food covered by the government with food stamps.

And govt student loans

RS>> A pound of coffee is higher today than it was 1,3 & 5 years ago. I'd hardly call coffee a falling commodity.

Try looking up some data before you make random proclamations. Coffee was trading at $2.90 a pound at the beginning of September last year. It is now $1.66.

Now before you cherry-pick the 2002 low of $0.50 as some hair-brained rebuttal, get some perspective. It was trading as low as $0.45 in 1972 and as high as $3.40 in 1977. Inflation-adjusted, those would be $2.47 and $12.85.

Here's some data:

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTKC

Here you go: 5.723 is higher than 5.582. But more importantly when prices go up and come down a fraction of what they went up the prior years(however coffee is up) that's not deflation.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
Consumer Price Index - Average Price Data
Original Data Value

Series Id: APU0000717311
Area: U.S. city average
Item: Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb. (453.6 gm)
Years: 2002 to 2012

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 2.936 2.946 2.859 2.976 3.011 2.938 2.977 2.929 2.921 2.872 2.882 2.838
2003 2.999 2.924 2.933 3.008 2.937 2.931 2.944 2.921 2.919 2.825 2.779 2.875
2004 2.892 2.856 2.932 2.908 2.831 2.750 2.878 2.878 2.874 2.840 2.778 2.776
2005 3.049 2.940 3.009 3.240 3.329 3.416 3.334 3.482 3.376 3.447 3.293 3.235
2006 3.232 3.174 3.301 3.292 3.349 3.158 3.154 3.196 3.173 3.138 3.158 3.113
2007 3.288 3.456 3.475 3.437 3.308 3.407 3.529 3.497 3.607 3.685
2009 3.669
2010 3.811 3.736 3.565 3.641 3.664 3.697 3.857 3.935 4.174 4.175 4.467 4.146
2011 4.417 4.218 4.642 5.101 5.129 5.234 5.547 5.766 5.651 5.511 5.636 5.437
2012 5.497 5.382 5.558 5.513 5.596 5.582 5.723

Okay, RS, here you go:

http://bpp.mit.edu/

The Billion Prices Project by MIT. They collect pricing data from online retailers to determine inflation.

Use that: sometimes the CPI is above the index, sometimes below, but they don't vary too much over long periods of time.

Then deflate prices by the price of gold, and find out the havoc that the gold standard would have wreaked upon the world:

http://goldprice.org/

You would have gone bankrupt long ago: from 2003 gold increased in price an average of 17.5% per year. So if we had a gold standard your income would have fallen 17.5% per year every year, whereas your debts would have remained unchanged.

Try to pay your mortgage with that.

Though, truthfully, adjusted for inflation gold is presently unchanged from the early 1970's, but nonetheless the short-term damage would have been done, and you'd be broke.

You're right, it's all going to shit. Thankfully my PEET shares are up 130%, should cover me for a few lifetimes worth of beans. Must be that widening green bean vs. retail roast spread.

>hair-brained

harebrained?

But wait a minute, was Riversider correct, so inododo changed the subject?

"A pound of coffee is higher today than it was 1,3 & 5 years ago. I'd hardly call coffee a falling commodity."

Inonada pointed out that once again you did not actually look up the data, you just spoke out of your ass. Coffee is WAY down YOY. And apparently, you did not even read MY POST!!! Where did I say there was 'deflation'? I said there was a LACK OF INFLATION. And the article says the bond market is predicting low inflation (sub 3%) for the next TEN YEARS. Despite your idiotic Hayek/Ayan Rand/Paul Ryan/Goldbug/Peter Schiff/Nial Furgeson bullshit.

Your folks have been saying that we should ALREADY have had SEVERAL YEARS of massive inflation. They said high interest rates and high inflation were ABOUT TO START ANY MOMENT or had ALREADY STARTED back in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and so far several times in 2012.

Nial and the WSJ editorial board said that the Keyensians/Krugman/Roubini/De Long etc had been proven DECISIVELY wrong back when 10-years crept up to like 3.7% in 2009.

The fact remains that independent fact checkers have shown that Krugman has been FAR AND AWAY the most accurate pundit and that Furgeson, Schiff, etc have been wrong on EVERYTHING.

Krugman is a New Yorker (like me). Schiff, doesn't he live out by the Pacific?

...And when you tried to explain this Krugman accuracy away in earlier posts, you AGAIN prove you don't even READ what you are talking about...because the reasons you cite are the SAME things Krugman predicted would happen!!!! Thus proving ME right!!!!!

Krugman will say or write anything that paints a low inflation picture, because he wants a qe3 , because he wants a central bank with expanded powers to fund his big government objectives.

Jason, you didn't even look at the cpi data. it shows coffee is up.

>> harebrained?

People have been trying to kill off the "hairbrained" variant for hundreds of years, but I'm sure it'll go away now that you have spoken.

>> But wait a minute, was Riversider correct, so inododo changed the subject?

I pointed to dropping green bean prices of 45% YoY, RS pointed to rising retail prices to the tune of 3% YoY. I said he was right and speculated on the relationship between the widening spread and the outsized rise in my PEET stock. If you think that's changing the subject, you've got reading comprehension problems.

PEET is up because of take-over talk...and not because of profit margins.

I'm so bad at reading comprehension. So bad.

(oh, **Sarcasm Off**, thank you)

Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) agreed to be taken private in a nearly $1 billion cash acquisition by German investment group Joh. A. Benckiser, news that jolted shares to their highest level in months.

Shares in the struggling coffee seller surged 29% to $73.57, their highest level since the stock started to tumble on a first-quarter profit miss at the beginning of May, exacerbated by high coffee costs and soft grocery volumes. In late March, shares had hit an all-time high of $77.60 only to fall to a nine-month low less than two weeks ago.

The movement also elevates the share price above the $73.50-a-share level of the Joh. A. Benckiser's deal, which indicates investors are speculating another suitor may enter the fray.

garbage down, necessary products up

jason's IQ down

RS, Krugman does not control the billion prices project, which shows approximately the same inflation as the CPI. The central bank does not "fund big government objectives" - the Treasury sells US debt to primary dealers, who then resell the debt on the secondary market (except short-term debt, which anybody can buy directly from the treasury). All the Fed is doing is repurchasing federal government and agency debt to hold down interest rates - the Treasury would issue the debt anyway. The Fed cannot buy US government debt directly from the Treasury; it is illegal.

What, precisely, are Krugman's "big government objectives"? I'm sure he would be the first one to reduce military spending to more reasonable levels, and extend Medicare to the entire country BECAUSE IT'S CHEAPER than private insurance. He would give Medicare the power to negotiate better prices with drug companies and medical care providers.

In short what he's uniformly been calling for is to REDUCE government spending in the medium- to long-term by making it more efficient, but to TEMPORARILY INCREASE spending - especially on infrastructure projects (which we need) - to make up for the lack of private investment.

That's it, & it doesn't seem too radical too me.

Unless you believe that gold is money and Ayn Rand and Austrian Economics hold the key to our future, but if you do you'd be disappointed to find out that Hayek was all for a single payer government sponsored health care system, as well as the rest of the social safety net, unemployment insurance included.

Caonima, that was funny,

"Deutsche Bank launches first index to trade US core inflation...

...The index implied core inflation of 1.6 percent over the next year, as of August 16...."

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/deutschebank-inflation-index-idINL2E8K42OK20120904

Sounds like a good way to hedge TIPS, etc

How can you possibly "hedge TIPS" with an index that is correlated 100% to TIPS, that is, inflation?

And what does "etc." mean?

Unfortunately, RS, your Austrian theories aren't holding up, & they don't mean what you think they mean. Methinks you're an economically lost soul.

>And what does "etc." mean?

I think it's Latin.

"Sounds like a good way to hedge TIPS, etc" Yes. And its another market-based insturment showing that nobody thinks we face inflation anytime soon.

...I am assuming you are missing a word or two in your post, RS.

Play nice.

So says the biggest hypocrite on the site.

oh now aboutready, don't try to make an appeal for civility
streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/32406-appeal-for-civility

There's civility and then there's skank, which RS tried to justify on skank's behalf. Which is funny, he used to chastise me for my language regularly, but poor skank can't help herself, she's driven to it. Right.

What do you think about Michael Dukakis' comments about Mitt Romney?

Is he outraged? I doubt there's any skank.

He called Romney a "fraud".

Anyway, so few people here have any concept of what real inflation would feel like. Without escalating wages increased commodity prices will generally result in decreased demand/prices for other goods and services. One of the many reasons best buy is having difficulties. Some services may have almost the same price as 10 years ago,which the average person thinks is no change, but in real terms is deflation. But cream cheese prices march on.

A fraud? That's not skank, but strong words for Dukakis. I'll have to watch Stewart.

Why watch Stewart when you can watch Sharpton?

One's funny ha ha and the other isn't.

it's a well-known truth that all those crooks are frauds. the only politician who's not fraud is Ron Paul, but this brain washed nation shut him out

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/business/as-low-rates-depress-savers-governments-reap-the-benefits.html?hp

So the goldbugs are out in force because inflation expectations have "spiked". Yes, they are way up! The UST/TIP 5-year break-even implies traders expect inflation over the next five year to be...2.35%. Yes, this HAS spiked....from 1.68% back in July. But 2.35% is less than inflation averaged during Reagan, Bush, or Bush, or for most of Clinton. Since ww2, inflation has averaged 3.1% or so. So HARDLY runaway inflation. But gold bugs are all over it in their blogs today!

FYI, even for the ten-year horizon, traders expect inflation to be all the way up to...2.62%. YAWN.

BTW, here is an ETF for those who still think inflation will run rampant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VAIPX:US

Obama raising tomato prices so he can win re-election
-----------------------------------------

The United States Department of Commerce signaled then that it might be willing to end a 16-year-old agreement between the United States and some Mexican growers that has kept the price of Mexican tomatoes relatively low for American consumers. American tomato growers say the price has been so low that they can barely compete.

“This is a debate being fought out in the context of this presidential election, and Florida is one of those swing states,” said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy at the Treasury Department. “But we also have a lot of fish to fry with Mexico, a lot of reasons to maintain better relations there.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/business/global/tomatoes-are-ammunition-for-a-trade-war-between-us-and-mexico.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

"Consumer Prices Fell in November
U.S. consumer prices dropped 0.3% in November as the cost of gasoline declined, the Labor Department said Friday. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323297104578179062246168382.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

"Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline More Than Forecast"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/consumer-prices-in-u-s-decline-more-than-forecast-in-november.html

At some point...in like 2020 maybe, RS will be right and we will be Wiemar Zimbabwe.

"Treasury Yields Below Inflation May Last Years: Chart of the Day"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/treasury-yields-below-inflation-may-last-years-chart-of-the-day.html

Its funny how everything Krugman and others who follow both Milton Friedman and Keynes have been totally accurate up until now. Hmmmm.//

Since 2000, how much has your average hourly wage gone up?

If you are in the upper crust, the answer may be staggering. If not, perhaps the following chart more closely resembles your experience.

Average Hourly Earnings 2000-2012

Just the Facts Ma'am

The average hourly earnings was $13.75 on January 1, 2000.
The average hourly earnings is currently $19.84.
Since 2000, average hourly earnings are up 44.29%

Bear in mind, those are averages. Don't be surprised if you are much worse off because of distributional skew (huge wage increases at the high end pull the average up).

Moreover, the above chart does not reflect sales taxes, property taxes, state income taxes, gasoline taxes, fees, etc., all of which are way higher now than in 2000. In other words, the chart reflects average hourly wages, not spendable income.

Actual spendable income is up far less than 44%.

It's a peculiar thing how the CPI does not properly account for tax hikes
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/12/congressional-spending-problem-in-easy.html

What a meaningless piece of crap to cite. And I think real income for the average person has been stagnant or down since the woeful day that w took office. Health care costs account for a great deal of that.

Riversider you ignorant slut.

It's not inlflation, its substitution, only the coffee stinks
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/06/19/noticed-that-your-coffee-tastes-funny-heres-why/?a_dgi=aolshare_twitter

Reuters is reporting that many of America's major brands have been quietly tweaking their coffee blends. While most coffee companies consider their blends trade secrets, and are loath to disclose exactly what goes into them, both circumstantial and direct evidence suggests they're now substituting lower-grade Robusta beans for some of their pricier Arabica, and degrading the quality of our coffee.

Research out of agricultural bank Rabobank confirms that demand for Arabica beans among coffee buyers "has fallen 27% year-to-date, while Robusta [demand] is 25% higher." This seems to confirm a widespread alteration of the bean mix.

Hey Riversider, at Starbucks, when they ask your name for your beverage, what is the most common mistake they make on your cup?

"Producer prices fall as food costs tumble
U.S. producer prices fell in December for the third straight month as food prices declined by the most in over 1 1/2 years, while a measure of underlying prices pointed to minimal inflation pressures in the economy. .."

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/producer-prices-fall-food-costs-tumble-1B7979426

see also http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/business/economy/retail-sales-improve-producer-prices-fall.html

Any day now, this massive Peter Schiff/Riversider hyperinflation will just SWEEP over us, just like Zimbabwe.

"...Consumer prices rose 1.7% in 2012 overall, marking tamer inflation than in 2011, when prices rose 3%, the Labor Department said Wednesday..."

http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/16/news/economy/cpi-inflation/index.html

So for someone in the 40% tax bracket, they would need a 2.8% increase in earnings to stand still? If you believe in the CPI.

Hmmmm? If inflation was up 1.7%, 1.7% not 2.8%. Before taxes. Are you doing that after tax? I suppose. Though taxes are higher with [see other thread.]

You should suppose. To afford the same after tax purchasing power taxes must be considered. It's your take home pay that matters.

In Response To The Skeptics Who Say The Government Is Faking Low Inflation Data

Read more: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/is-the-us-government-wildly-understating-the-inflation-rate-no-it-isnt/#ixzz2II8KHssf

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-inflation-the-legacy-of-the-federal-reserve-ZsuSCqK4QKaWEcfAnrEcHg.html

Bloomberg Businessweek
"America's Shrinking Grocery Bill," by Dorothy Gambrell, March 4-10, 2013.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-28/americas-shrinking-grocery-bill

What foods are cheaper today than five years ago?

>"America's Shrinking Grocery Bill," by Dorothy Gambrell, March 4-10, 2013.

And yet Jason wants to bump the minimum wage and increase taxes on the wealthy.

Increasing minimum wage is dumb. Most economists agree. If you did want to do something the earned income tax credit would be better.

Jason never told us how much he gets from EITC.

another post from huntersburg.

why are you hiding?

aren't you proud?

C0C0, you looking forward to the snow?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25207-good-morning-columbiacounty

another post from huntersburg.

why are you hiding?

aren't you proud?

>What foods are cheaper today than five years ago?

Fukushima oysters

"Increasing minimum wage is dumb. Most economists agree. If you did want to do something the earned income tax credit would be better."

Wrong, that is not what they say.

"Question B: The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy." = 10% strrongly agreee, 52% agree. Only 16% disagree or strongly disagree.

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_br0IEq5a9E77NMV

"What foods are cheaper today than five years ago?"

Again, here is the chart:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-28/americas-shrinking-grocery-bill

That chart shows that eating at restaurants and alcohol is declining.

I see a chart that looks at percentae of household spending? Am I missing something?

You're missing a lot.

"the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment"

Well, sure, a bump in the minimum wage is great if you're one of the lucky ones who gets to keep their job. But the point is that employment will drop if wages are artificially raised. You'll get a majority of low-wage workers who are happy to be making more money, plus a minority who will now be unemployed.

Come to think of it, even the employed ones might not be as happy as they're anticipating. If minimum wage goes up 20% and the employer reacts by having 8 people do the work of 10, even the ones who keep their jobs will be miserable.

Funny thing about the minimum wage, most economists are against it. Obama's Christine Romer makes the case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/business/the-minimum-wage-employment-and-income-distribution.html?smid=pl-share

WRONG. From the SAME survey they refers to:

"Question B: The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy." = 10% strrongly agreee, 52% agree. Only 16% disagree or strongly disagree.

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_br0IEq5a9E77NMV

Bloomberg
“Why Global Economies Face an Age of Deflation,” by Gary Shilling, March 20, 2013.
http://bloom.bg/Y05dZ1

Fukushima oysters give ya a radiant glow

come on let's give credit to Bernanke. After all since his quantitative easing interest rates have remained very low. Money has found it's way into the stock market and home prices are higher for the most part. Even gasoline and oil prices are heading to record highs but we can't blame that on printing of money. Bernanke will soon tell us that has to do with some kind of refinery problem. Consumer spending is up and consumer savings is down. Okay so consumers can't afford to save as much or eat out as much but that probably has more to do with the quality of food going downhill

Actually George W and ethanol are partially responsible.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/gasoline-price-inflated-by-ethanol-in-oil-boom-energy-markets.html

Even as the U.S. produces more oil than at any time since 1992, gasoline remains a dollar higher than the average for the past decade in part because of George W. Bush-era rules that attach a 38-digit Renewable Identification Number to every gallon of ethanol.

Bush’s mandate predated a boom in oil and gas production that has helped the U.S. meet 84 percent of its energy needs in the first 11 months of last year, government data show, the most since 1991. Since its passage in 2007, annual gasoline demand has dropped 6.3 percent, while U.S. output has soared 28 percent, making compliance by refiners more expensive and eclipsing any benefit from replacing hydrocarbon-based fuel

Well I just got contacted by the U.S. Dept of Labor asking for help in updating the consumer price index....

Put your tinfoil hat back on.

Maybe then after 800 posts you will finally get your 9% CPI! Have fun, RS. Is it a committee or what?

No , just a 20 minute phone survey on past purchases..
But it is ironic..

This thread was started 2 years ago. Any update on more recent inflation rates using 80s methodology?

Oh, I thought maybe you worked at a Wall Street firm and they were making a committee. you never know who works where on these boards.

I'm your boss Jason.

"DEFLATION: Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Fall 0.2%"

http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-price-index-march-2013-4

SOMEDAY before we all day Riversider will be correct...somewhere on Earth.

It tastes like burning.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/29/inflation-nation-not/

"
...WASHINGTON—Inflation in the U.S. has slowed to a level where prices are barely growing at all, a shift that affects consumers, Wall Street and the future of the economic recovery...

...Excluding volatile energy and food products, consumer prices rose by only 0.1% in April, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The same minuscule gain was seen in March. In the past 12 months, core prices have risen 1.7%, the lowest annual rate since June 2011. With food and fuel included, prices dropped 0.4% in April..."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323582904578486762538623592.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

"Surprise! Inflation is too low almost everywhere on earth...

...That was the astoundingly consistent theme out of a range of data released Thursday. Prices rose 1.1 percent over the 12 months that ended in April in Germany, 0.8 percent in France and 1.3 percent in Italy. In the United States, the consumer price index rose 1.1 percent over the last year. Japan reported surprisingly strong first-quarter growth this week as its aggressive new stimulus policies took effect, but that came against a backdrop of continued falling prices; its consumer price index fell 0.9 percent in the year that ended in March..."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/16/surprise-inflation-is-too-low-almost-everywhere-on-earth/

Lower prices for cream cheese please. I'm on a fixed income and my housing costs are relatively set and I'm a lonely old fart without kids and I have Medicare so I'd like to see some deflation.

>I'm on a fixed income and my housing costs are relatively set and I'm a lonely old fart without kids and I have Medicare so I'd like to see some deflation.

aboutready, are you sure?

Riversider was overheard muttering something of the sort last year at fairway.

GD, you're awfully witless these days, your not-so-pithy one-liners and all. Work harder, nobody likes a slacker.

>Work harder, nobody likes a slacker.

You see, I never actually believed you moved to Williamsburg.

"...I checked, and re-checked, and triple-checked, and I can confirm that it’s not 1979 anymore.

Now, that shouldn’t be too surprising — I’m not writing this on an Apple II, after all — but it is to a generation of men (and yes, they are all men) who think stagflation is always and everywhere a looming phenomenon. No matter how low inflation goes, they see portents of Weimar. But that neverending 70s show isn’t just a phobia of rising prices. It’s the idea that the solution to economic pain is more pain. In other words, Volcker-worship..."

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/this-is-the-biggest-mistake-60-year-old-men-make-about-the-economy/275954/

Peter Schiff is Wrong About Everything

http://www.etvita.com/2013/04/peter-schiff-is-wrong-about-everything.html

Jason10006 = Peter Schiff

http://www.evita.com/2013/04/jason10006-is-wrong-about-everything.html