In response to a question to UD about whether his inventory charts reflected shadow inventory, this was his response: "none of our charts reflect them...so yes, it does NOT accurately reflect so called shadow inventory..which is not as shadowy as it was (think back to 2005-2007 when marketing began during the boom and inventory did not reflect unreleased units). at least now, in 2010, many of... [more]
In response to a question to UD about whether his inventory charts reflected shadow inventory, this was his response:
"none of our charts reflect them...so yes, it does NOT accurately reflect so called shadow inventory..which is not as shadowy as it was (think back to 2005-2007 when marketing began during the boom and inventory did not reflect unreleased units).
at least now, in 2010, many of these units sold and got recorded (measured) by our systems. What didnt sell, is likely now on market and measured. When a closed listing gets relisted, we capture it. So its a problem that declines over time, assuming no new development boom takes place...which I dont see happening for many years.
Hopefully by then, source data is better"
.... However, I walk by shadow inventory every day and often wonder about it. Hell, a year ago when I was looking to buy, The Harrison told me they were sold out except for 4 apts. Since then I have seen sponsor listings of about 2 per month. What about Sheffield 57, how many there? There are dozens of Rushmore apts that have never been listed, and how about Linden78, will those apts ever be counted? Then you add in BPC, Harlem, the land lease disasters on UES.... I don't really want to do research but I thought it would be fun to casually list shadow inventory as it comes to mind or you happen to walk by a building that you know is holding out.
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Response by urbandigs
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
the main reason the sales teams sit on the inventory is:
1) they dont want to flood market with inventory, more control
2) they can hold out for pricing power should sales be strong
I talked to developers and this is what they told me. Also, the like the not confuse sales teams if there are a variety of differing floorplans. Yes, that is what I was told. Some buildings have 30+ different layouts, think 88 greenwich, and they release batches so sales teams are not overwhelmed with questions they cant answer. Crazy, sure, but hey, I didnt say it.
This is the New Dev problem I discussed and put forth opinions to fix on the listing side to help all of us. All units should have a record created on first offering, that lists everything in the Schedule A filed with AG; which I just came back from by the way verifying data for my new platform for bldgs with missing info. Then, after a record is created, the developer has every right to put 80% or whatever, into OFF MKT, but at least it could be measured. Also, the system should force any listing that is off mkt to be moved to ACTIVE prior to updating to CONTRACT SIGNED. Think of how many listings on this site say, "Listed in SE, already in contract". Having a listing status set to CSGN, with no ACTIVE prior state skews data! A listing that is not in ACTIVE inventory, was now marketed and sold. So pending sales may not correlate with inventory trends. This is why we removed the poison of new devs with no ACTIVE prior state in my new systems. I tough but necessary decision to ensure higher quality analytics.
Noah. When's the launch? Where are we if it's days 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 or weeks 5 4 3 2 1 or months 3 2 1...? It sounds like it will really show how the market is performing short term.
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Response by urbandigs
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
the hope is 3 weeks
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Response by urbandigs
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
and yes, its killer!
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Should the Trump Soho inventory be counted as shadow inventory? Only 20 of the 391 units have closed and only one apt is listed. Yes, they are hotel condos but they do pull from the pool of investors in NY RE. And since the owners are now offering financing, this is in fact a viable option for buyers and one that is not being counted in the stats.
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Response by AvUWS
over 15 years ago
Posts: 839
Member since: Mar 2008
I am waiting for the launch merely so we can get more of the insightful articles from Noah, Jeff and the gang. Hasn't been anyting new on U'digs since Monday.
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Response by urbandigs
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
i know and I apologize for that. I have so many tasks for both my development teams to finish, and almost all my time has gone to that. Im working on a piece for Monday that will show a few more sneak peaks, and sales pace and inventory trends ending since July..but I have not been in the field much the last 4 weeks
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Response by somewhereelse
over 15 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
darn, noah, do better!
(jk)
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
William Beaver House at 15 William Street in Financial District
Gotta get this one up before it goes into foreclosure. Not only is there plenty of shadown inventory, it is about to get a whole lot cheaper.
wow, lucidia rentals... definitely seeing the interest shift away from purchases
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Response by sidelinesitter
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
well, ummm, the floors between the street level retail and higher floor condos were developed as rentals, so it's not exactly surprising that they are being rented. Those units don't even have individual tax lot numbers, which shows intent to rent from the outset, so please spare us the "they didn't sell so now the developer is caving in and renting" Chicken Little narrative.
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Response by somewhereelse
about 15 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
you're missing the point. the rentals rented, and they've still got lots to sell.
btw, if you don't think there has been a move to rent condos out in general, then I don't know what to tell you.
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Response by sidelinesitter
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
Update on the Laurel, 400 East 67th. 129 units. Closings started 12/08
As of June 2010: 57 closed / 11 in contract / 24 listed / 37 shadow inventory (29% of building)
Current (Nov 26): 71 closed / 3 in contract / 22 listed / 33 shadow inventory (26% of building)
They have made a lot more progress converting contracts to closings than they have in signing new contracts or getting the shadow inventory out of the shadows.
On the previous page of this thread I had stated that there had only been one closing (in June 2009) in this building and that most of the units were shadow inventory. Maybe I was only looking at the 40 most recent listings and hadn't clicked through to the full history, but regardless my post was incorrect. That closing was in fact the 19th between April 2008 and June 2009. After an 11 month hiatus, closings started again in May 2010 and had reached 14 by early November. Still a lot of shadow inventory 2 1/2 years after closing started.
33 closed / 0 in contract / 10 listed / 24 shadow inventory (36% of building)
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Response by sidelinesitter
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
Update on the Lucida, 151 East 85th, 98 units. Closings started 6/09
As of July 2010: 68 closed / 0 in contract / 13 listed / 17 shadow inventory (15% of building)
Current (Nov 26): 76 closed / 1 in contract / 11 listed / 10 shadow inventory (10% of building)
7 closed / 3 in contract / 9 listed / 109 shadow inventory (85% of building)
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Response by sidelinesitter
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
UES shadow inventory general observations:
* The Azure and the conversion/redev at 515 East 72nd (f.k.a. Miraval) seem to be the main sources of UES shadow inventory at this point
* Between them the Brompton (4 units of shadow), Lucida (10), Georgica (1), Laurel (33), 300 East 79th (7) and Isis (0) only have 55 units not sold or listed, with 60% of those concentrated in the Laurel
* There still seems to be a trickle of developer sales out of slightly earlier developments at 170 EEA and 255 East 74th and even from the still earlier Cielo, but these are very small numbers at this point
* There are also some boutique-y small developments/redevelopments scattered around, but most of the units seem to be listed (see Merritt House, for example).
I am forced by the data to conclude that UES new dev/redev shadow inventory is much lower than I would have guessed and concentrated in two troubled developments whose somewhat marginal (515 East 72nd) and very marginal (Azure) locations may mean that clearing this inventory ultimately has less impact on the market than would have been the case if there were still a larger backlog in more desirable locations.
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Response by sidelinesitter
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
303 East 33rd, 128 units. Closings started 03/10 (one closing) and then 07/10 in earnest
63 closed / 5 in contract / 7 listed / 53 shadow inventory (41% of building)
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the main reason the sales teams sit on the inventory is:
1) they dont want to flood market with inventory, more control
2) they can hold out for pricing power should sales be strong
I talked to developers and this is what they told me. Also, the like the not confuse sales teams if there are a variety of differing floorplans. Yes, that is what I was told. Some buildings have 30+ different layouts, think 88 greenwich, and they release batches so sales teams are not overwhelmed with questions they cant answer. Crazy, sure, but hey, I didnt say it.
This is the New Dev problem I discussed and put forth opinions to fix on the listing side to help all of us. All units should have a record created on first offering, that lists everything in the Schedule A filed with AG; which I just came back from by the way verifying data for my new platform for bldgs with missing info. Then, after a record is created, the developer has every right to put 80% or whatever, into OFF MKT, but at least it could be measured. Also, the system should force any listing that is off mkt to be moved to ACTIVE prior to updating to CONTRACT SIGNED. Think of how many listings on this site say, "Listed in SE, already in contract". Having a listing status set to CSGN, with no ACTIVE prior state skews data! A listing that is not in ACTIVE inventory, was now marketed and sold. So pending sales may not correlate with inventory trends. This is why we removed the poison of new devs with no ACTIVE prior state in my new systems. I tough but necessary decision to ensure higher quality analytics.
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/05/the_new_dev_problem_standardiz.html
thx malthus, Noah....
Noah. When's the launch? Where are we if it's days 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 or weeks 5 4 3 2 1 or months 3 2 1...? It sounds like it will really show how the market is performing short term.
the hope is 3 weeks
and yes, its killer!
Should the Trump Soho inventory be counted as shadow inventory? Only 20 of the 391 units have closed and only one apt is listed. Yes, they are hotel condos but they do pull from the pool of investors in NY RE. And since the owners are now offering financing, this is in fact a viable option for buyers and one that is not being counted in the stats.
I am waiting for the launch merely so we can get more of the insightful articles from Noah, Jeff and the gang. Hasn't been anyting new on U'digs since Monday.
i know and I apologize for that. I have so many tasks for both my development teams to finish, and almost all my time has gone to that. Im working on a piece for Monday that will show a few more sneak peaks, and sales pace and inventory trends ending since July..but I have not been in the field much the last 4 weeks
darn, noah, do better!
(jk)
William Beaver House at 15 William Street in Financial District
Gotta get this one up before it goes into foreclosure. Not only is there plenty of shadown inventory, it is about to get a whole lot cheaper.
320 apts. 108 sold. 10 listed
Shadow 202
99 John Street
442 apts. Sold:134 -- Listed: 36 -- In contract 14
Shadow: 258
Miraval Living at 515 East 72nd Street
365 apts. Sold 127 (didn't check to see if any were resales)--Listed: 40-- In contract:12
Shadow: 186
Looks like some of them are going rental.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/realestate/residential/new_lease_on_life_Rswjq34nKSshBH1gW1uZ2L?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=
wow, lucidia rentals... definitely seeing the interest shift away from purchases
well, ummm, the floors between the street level retail and higher floor condos were developed as rentals, so it's not exactly surprising that they are being rented. Those units don't even have individual tax lot numbers, which shows intent to rent from the outset, so please spare us the "they didn't sell so now the developer is caving in and renting" Chicken Little narrative.
you're missing the point. the rentals rented, and they've still got lots to sell.
btw, if you don't think there has been a move to rent condos out in general, then I don't know what to tell you.
Update on the Laurel, 400 East 67th. 129 units. Closings started 12/08
As of June 2010: 57 closed / 11 in contract / 24 listed / 37 shadow inventory (29% of building)
Current (Nov 26): 71 closed / 3 in contract / 22 listed / 33 shadow inventory (26% of building)
They have made a lot more progress converting contracts to closings than they have in signing new contracts or getting the shadow inventory out of the shadows.
Update on the Cammeyer (f.k.a., 50 East 20th and prior to that known as 650 Sixth Avenue). 67 units. Closings started 4/08
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-cammeyer
On the previous page of this thread I had stated that there had only been one closing (in June 2009) in this building and that most of the units were shadow inventory. Maybe I was only looking at the 40 most recent listings and hadn't clicked through to the full history, but regardless my post was incorrect. That closing was in fact the 19th between April 2008 and June 2009. After an 11 month hiatus, closings started again in May 2010 and had reached 14 by early November. Still a lot of shadow inventory 2 1/2 years after closing started.
33 closed / 0 in contract / 10 listed / 24 shadow inventory (36% of building)
Update on the Lucida, 151 East 85th, 98 units. Closings started 6/09
As of July 2010: 68 closed / 0 in contract / 13 listed / 17 shadow inventory (15% of building)
Current (Nov 26): 76 closed / 1 in contract / 11 listed / 10 shadow inventory (10% of building)
Azure, 333 East 91st Street, 128 units (based on original layouts; developer has since made some combinations to market larger units; net number of units not known yet)
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/azure-333-east-91st-street-new_york
7 closed / 3 in contract / 9 listed / 109 shadow inventory (85% of building)
UES shadow inventory general observations:
* The Azure and the conversion/redev at 515 East 72nd (f.k.a. Miraval) seem to be the main sources of UES shadow inventory at this point
* Between them the Brompton (4 units of shadow), Lucida (10), Georgica (1), Laurel (33), 300 East 79th (7) and Isis (0) only have 55 units not sold or listed, with 60% of those concentrated in the Laurel
* There still seems to be a trickle of developer sales out of slightly earlier developments at 170 EEA and 255 East 74th and even from the still earlier Cielo, but these are very small numbers at this point
* There are also some boutique-y small developments/redevelopments scattered around, but most of the units seem to be listed (see Merritt House, for example).
I am forced by the data to conclude that UES new dev/redev shadow inventory is much lower than I would have guessed and concentrated in two troubled developments whose somewhat marginal (515 East 72nd) and very marginal (Azure) locations may mean that clearing this inventory ultimately has less impact on the market than would have been the case if there were still a larger backlog in more desirable locations.
303 East 33rd, 128 units. Closings started 03/10 (one closing) and then 07/10 in earnest
63 closed / 5 in contract / 7 listed / 53 shadow inventory (41% of building)