NY Prices not crashing yet..

jhochle - "I just think that the bears constantly pointing to some event as the catalyst for a crash are kidding themselves."

How about pointing to inevitable events that haven't materialized yet? I think of the inevitable burst in mortgage rates. I have to agree they will go up, but it's a good thing no one predicted when it would happen, because, defying sundry predictions, they've actually plunged to new lows.

From the previous page: "If we have that much inventory we are going to have to get job creation going in the right direction nationally before we can see a bottom. This includes NYC! It is just economics 101 no cash flow no purchasing of anything."

OK, so what happens when there actually is cash flow?

In the Times today: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/nyregion/16jobs.html?_r=1&ref=nyregion
This has all sorts of stuff that should give the SE Chicken Littles pause. More jobs, fewer people without jobs, lower unemployment rate for the 6th straight month, labor force at historic highs (i.e., everyone has not in fact fled NYC because they lost their job and/or the city is going to hell).

It's interesting that the city's unemployment rate peaked in June 2009, which would have been somewhere around or just past the weakest point in the real estate market. Moderate increases or declines or extended stagnation all seem to be within the reasonable range of prognostication and debate at this point. It just baffles me that people are stuck on a scenario where the world is still ending and a further sharp decline in real estate prices will prove them right if we just wait another few months. That's been the story for a year now and it's frankly getting pretty tired. Of course SteveF's 5-7 years of 5-10% annual growth, then a price spike before we see any decline is pretty comical too...

sidelinsitter - that almost had a hint of levelheadedness to it. Please stop.

Agreed - sideline, you summed up where we're at so well, it's really hard to think of much to add. It is amusing to watch the extremists yell at each other though.

"sidelinsitter - that almost had a hint of levelheadedness to it. Please stop."

Chicken Little will no doubt be along shortly to clarify for both of us that my post actually reflects raging bullishness, not levelheadedness.

Did you read the article? June hiring was at 70 percent of the average for the last ten years (which of course includes the last recession which was no picnic for new hires) with the strongest gains seen in construction and leisure and hospitality.

That will send those condos flying off the shelf.

sls, I expect better from you. you're cheering a 9.5 percent UE rate? direction is correct, magnitude of change nothing to cheer about

Right on cue...

how so?

did you realize the article wasn't nearly as positive as you seemed to imply? the cheery news that virtually all of the long-term unemployed are no longer receiving extended benefits was nice, also.

have you joined the riversider school of journalism?

aboutready, don't you find something like "the last 10 Junes" to be not only somewhat arbitrary, but also a fairly small sample size? Especially since it overlaps much of what we consider a bubble period? I hear you that the drop in UE is by no means huge, but the trend is proving to be sustained and positive. I don't think there's anything wrong with measured optimism here, though I understand your worrying that it can easily turn into whooping and cheering that the party's back on. It isn't.

bjw, the comparison I'd like to see is 2010 vs. 2007 and/or 2008. I just found the laudatory commentary ironic given the weakness of the evidence.

I'm not fond of the consumer sentiment reports, they're volatile and often not predictive, but this morning's report was simply noxious.

"sme- I never said all bears made the 50% prediction."

Actually, you did, you used the phrase "all bears". I'm not sure what you meant by "all bears" other than... well... all bears.

> I said most of the vocal ones on this Board did.

You didn't say that either.

lol.

Now you're changing your story, of course. And, of course, you're going to define a vocal bear as anyone who says that.

As long as you get you keep changing the story.

Hillarious.

> You can make up things I have said

I don't have to, you do a nice job of making the wacky statements all by yourself.

> And where was I wrong about the market? I predicted 15% down

Yeah, after the market started crashing! Great call!

You're now the second bull who said "I said we were going down" and happen to be talking about their calls they CHANGED TO after the market started tanking.

Wow, you are such a seer!

Sorry....

> On these boards, when you disagree with bears who predict 50-70% down,
> you are considered a bull by them. LOL.

When you do it after the market has already fallen 20%, why are you surprised by that?

Bull/bear is about future predictions.

Oh wait, that right, you can rewrite yours after the fact.

Funny.

> No one has been building for 3 years now

Sorry, thats just not true. Nationally, for some reason they're still building (the people who want to buy don't want used for some reason, even though there is tons of inventory).

And, in Manhattan, do you think things stopped on a dime?

2009 was the second highest residential construction year even in Manhttan (after 2008). Projects started years ago are still just coming to the market.

But, hey Steve, just make things up.

somewherelese - how do you have the time for parsing posts? I thought you would be busy pulling things together for the condo. Did you do any better than $1400psf? I hope at least they threw in a cabana for a year.

sme- you really are going off the deep end. This one is easy. Go to each page of this thread and run a Ctrl-search of "all bears". The only one who used that phrase was you.

You really do like making up things I have said and then arguing with yourself.

LOL!

And I predicted 15% down when someone started a thread asking for predictions. I'm not sure when that was, but I'm pretty sure it was late 2008.

sme, you were wrong and others were right. Sorry that strikes a blow to your inflated ego, but you can't spin your way out of it.

"You're now the second bull who said "I said we were going down" and happen to be talking about their calls they CHANGED TO after the market started tanking."

According to you, isn't someone who says that market is going down *definitionally* bearish? Cause you're definitely not just interested in perpetuating the "I was right; you were wrong" "conversation" are you? You're way above that.

somewhereelse is going off the deep end as the Manhattan market strengthens.

It is sad how aboutready wishes for a real estate and job market crash just so she can convince herself that she was intelligent for predicting it. When reality contradicts her prediction, she spins and spins . . .

LICComm, get real - I don't put ar in that schadenfreude camp. It's not even close. I don't always agree with her, but she's got next to nothing in common with them.

I find ar to be an extreme partisan.

It is sad how LICcomm wishes to dupe people into sticking their heads in the sand, instead of looking at the historical patterns of New York's long, drawn-out, yet very substantial price-plummets in the residential real estate market.

Animals that stick their heads in the sand wind up being attacked by forces of nature nonetheless, sometimes winding up with worthless Long Island City condos and impossibly huge mortgages.

Sad, LICcomm, sad.

interesting but dumb in the extreme licc. clearly you equate liberal with wanting the world to implode.

your lack of reasoning astonishes me.

your nastiness has ceased to surprise me, and that's saying something.

how's your favorite war going?

sad how lic needs to convince himself that the economy and real estate prices are strong so that he feels intelligent about his purchase in lic.

I have no agenda, lic. I spent the years from 2004 on claiming that we had over levered and that excruciatingly bad underwriting practices along with stagnant income growth would bite us in the ass. I'm not feeling particularly stupid at the moment. what were you saying?

ar-I was referring to your comments on the real estate and job markets.

I find your political views on national security, defense, and government control over people's lives to be disgusting.

While I disagree with LICComm, I am thoroughly bored by the LIC bashing thing. Please make it stop.

People on the government dole shouldn't be allowed to vote. They and
the corrupt politicians have bankrupted the country.

Actually anyone who doesn't file a tax return shouldn't be allowed to vote.
You can file zero income but you have to file.

No representation without acknowledgement of taxation.

bjw, as long as lic continues to berate people on "partisan" grounds, I'm happy to point out that emerging markets frequently have the most to lose during corrections.

so, lic, what was the re and job market comments specifically that you were referring to? the fact that I thought UEwould hit 10 percent? the fact that I felt that far too many overpriced condos were being built? the fact that we didn't have the infrastructure to support adequately all the parents who'd signed on to the public education system?

about that war, how's it going? what have we accomplished? I find you disgusting also. you're partisan, except to a party that doesn't exist because it's totally based on fantasy. what an appropriate time for ms. large to reappeared. I guess her joy has diminished.

The Honorable David Dinkins filed no income tax return for 4 years and then became
mayor of NYC. Different justice for different people.

>People on the government dole shouldn't be allowed to vote

Couldn't disagree more, however, those "on the dole" 2 consecutive years or more maybe should temporarily lose it.

Well that certainly proves something?

For as much abuse that is thrown LICC's way, I don't find him nasty at all. He actually handles himself quite well. What is really silly is that his biggest downfall seems to be that he is proud of and loves where he lives. I don't think he deserves 99% of the darts thrown at him but most of the instigators sniping at him live in dumpy rentals in marginal areas anyway so, credibility is question.

AR's and LICC's feud is politically charged more than anything else which makes for interesting reading.

Another two years of the community organizer and Greece will look like a
great destination for citizenship.

ar, call me naive, but what's so bad about taking the higher ground in this instance? Especially when the LIC conversation isn't even amusing anymore. His uber-conservative politics are much more entertaining.

Of course ar has not problem spewing unprovoked insults of other people's homes and neighborhoods. That is what self-centered people do.

I am very happy with LIC. The area continues to develop, more businesses are opening, more people are moving in, the community is terrific, and rents and condo prices have held up very, very well.

ar, prior comments related to how the NYC job market is faring better than the rest of the country, contrary to your predictions, and NYC real estate has not crashed as you and others had predicted, but you had to disparage that analysis to force your view that you were right and others were wrong.

Do you still hold the view that we should not have taken military action in Afghanistan after 9-11?? Despicable.

What have we accomplished? We have killed and captured thousands of terrorists that wished to conduct attacks on America, and have disrupted Al Qaeda. I guess that doesn't mean much to you since it doesn't directly affect you.

Too bad that someone who thinks people should work for what they get, who thinks that this country should take action to protect and defend itself, and who thinks that freedom is valuable to American citizenry, is disgusting to you.

well, the great jm has opined so it must be so. I go weeks without responding to lic. he rarely hesitates to be personally insulting to me, but I hardly care. nice dig about the rental, jm, but I don't care there either.

here, have a look-see at these charts. I particularly like page 12, the bottom 50 percent of the country owns less than one percent of the nation's wealth. yes, trickle down has been vindicated.

http://www.businessinsider.com/22-statistics-that-prove-the-middle-class-is-being-systematically-wiped-out-of-existence-in-america-2010-7#the-bottom-50-percent-of-income-earners-in-the-united-states-now-collectively-own-less-than-1-percent-of-the-nations-wealth-12

licc I totally agree with you. aboutready is just a jealous envious vindictive creature. She is entitled to everything. A perfect
product of a corrupt bankrupt society.

Hey...you forgot to use your favorite word.

swe, you are trying to claim victory before the fight is over. It is painfully obvious. I understand why you are trying to do this but it won't work. If you choose to continue posting here, your arrogance over the last two years will haunt you.

ar, thanks for another lie. When have I personally insulted you? I think some of your views and comments are disgusting, and others incorrect, but I don't personally insult. And coming from you, that is laughable. I'm surprised you haven't used profane language yet, because that is how you usually wind up your arguments. Others on this board have hurled personal insults at you, but don't lump me in with them and project that I have also done so.

I also never initially criticize someone else's home or neighborhood. If someone attacks mine, I'll point out the irony of the downside of where they live. That is the extent to which I will go.

lic, have you ever wondered why people on this board who are generally tolerant and not the types to bash any neighborhoods do so for lic?

you, the 'ho, and carolst do yourselves no favors in your postings.

bjw, this site is boring as a tomb. I've exercised increasing restraint, but sometimes a girl just has to indulge in a spot of fun. he intentionally misrepresents everything I stand for, kind of like a certain troll.

lic, were you circumcised prior to deployment? were your children and other male relatives?

"well, the great jm has opined so it must be so."

Agreed. It is so.

"nice dig about the rental, jm,"

That actually wasn't directed at you but now that you mention it, I don't understand why it is fun to bash neighborhoods which other like. If you don't like it, don't live there.

Well I am glad jm finds the political discussions interesting!

lic, are you on crack? you accused me of wishing disaster on others to make myself feel intelligent. you don't think that's a personal insult?

well, I guess that explains a ton about your perspective.

Julia, I'm happy to insult you in return. you have zero understanding of my personal economic situation. you are making a fool of yourself.

ar thinks she is "generally tolerant" and "not the type to bash"???? LOL

I love Friday afternoon streeteasy rants.....

julia- I agree. ar views everything from an entitlement mentality.

jm, follow along. I only bash one neighborhood. but it's highly bashable, I must admit, which makes it easy.

when are you going to show up to one of the get togethers? 10023 has three young ones, one under one, and she still makes it. lame and I'm disappointed in you jm.

aboutready. You are the product of an entitlement welfare state. A long slow tedious lowering of achievements and standards. You represent your country well. The dying carcass of a once great country.

Julia! What country are you from?

lic, entitlement to what? what have I been given? I won a four year corporate national merit scholarship for college, took out loans and worked from the age of fifteen, including all four years of college, until I decided to become a stay at home mom. my husband makes a very decent living. I type this now from a rooftop bar in Rome. who do you think paid for my vacation, the govt?

You have very selective understanding.

oh well, back to the antiquities. just thought I'd drop in for some Friday afternoon fun.

fwiw, Rome isn't looking so hot compared to 2007. the city has bizarre shop hours, but I'm still fairly certain that things have been hit pretty badly. southern france, however, seemed much better than last summer, far fewer empty storefronts.

ciao from italy

From the country formally known as an individualistic free society. Where the community organizers and politically correct losers
sneaked around in the people of the world unite party. Not a country where the government has their boots on the throat of the hard working American people.

Where is that country? What Is it called?

ar, no wonder you think you have been personally insulted. You think every statement made is about your personal situation.

Your views on politics, rent stabilization, welfare, healthcare, etc. all come from an entitlement mentality. You favor handouts and free rides.

I don't care about your personal life.

nice deceptive try licc. you said what you said. you said that I wish for destruction to feel better about myself. how is that not a personal insult?

as to the rest, semantics. saying you think my views are disgusting rather than me being disgusting is just semantics.

btw, fuck off.

Julia, you are even less comprehensible than usual. but dont worry, licc understands you.

"I wish for destruction to feel better about myself. " That's it! That is the reason the left, the liberals, the progressives love failure. They hate success and individualism. It frightens them to death.

oh, and btw, licc you never answered my question. what were you saying about the economy and real estate 2004-2008?

ar, I don't know who you are, I don't care who you are, and I don't care about your personal situation. I commented about your views, some of which I find disgusting.

You can't seem to separate debate on opinions and commentary from personal attacks. That is your issue, not mine.

I knew the profanity would come at some point . . .

LIC---I find your views disgusting, where you live to be a trash hole, but as a person, i have no doubt you are a prince.

Julia, you idiot, my husband is an equity partner at one of the largest firms. we define success through hard work, little if any family support through four degrees. except for my cheap and persistent determination to pay far less than our means on housing, we are YOUR American dream family. I LOVE individualism and success, the latter becoming less and less attainable for huge numbers of Americans and not due to the reasons you cite.

licc, I don't care about your personal life either, but you might have the opportunity to leave your desk at lunchtime once in awhile if you didn't spend so much time here online telling us about how lovely your personal life is in lic.

licc, you still haven't answered my question. how is it not an insult to say that someone needs to see people lose jobs in order to feel better about herself?

YOU made it personal. you opined that I need to see other people fail to feel intelligent. that's a personal attack. you make them all the time.

you remind me of anotherbholier-than-thou poster, who sees things very selectively.

"my husband is an equity partner at one of the largest firms." Tremendous liberal guilt. What firm is that. One that brings class action law suits against the productive companies.

zero liberal guilt. my husband represents corporations against other corporations. none of the largest firms handle class actions, with very, very few exceptions, on behalf of plaintiffs, against "productive" companies.

nice try, though.

aboutready I nailed it. Your husband sues other corporations. Brilliant!!!!!

ar, I can't believe you're in Rome and answering some of this bs. The uber-conservatives on this thread clearly have learned how to distort what others say and reduce "liberal" notions to very basic and trite statements. I say let em rot in their ignorance - not worth the time. Especially if you're in Italy. Buona permanenza!

Unions and lawyers... The community organizers hard core base.

ar, you want the bad news to happen to feel intelligent that your arguments and predictions were correct. That is my opinion about the motivation behind your views. People can draw their own judgments on how that reflects on you personally.

julia you are right. Classic limousine liberal mentality. They don't care how the liberal policies they support harm others, because they are insulated from it.

Licc Exactly. They want to protect their wealth. Lets have a wealth tax instead of income tax . The Kennedy's and Kerry's and Corzines and Bloombergs wont care about the middle class and poor then.

"Do you still hold the view that we should not have taken military action in Afghanistan after 9-11?? Despicable."

... you mean the ten-year totally unsuccessful "Where's Waldo?" search for ONE individual who was allegedly hiding out somewhere in some part of that country? Because that was the stated goal in going into Afghanistan. The real goal is another story altogether, and has nothing to do with Muslim fundamentalist terrorists.

"What have we accomplished? We have killed and captured thousands of terrorists that wished to conduct attacks on America, and have disrupted Al Qaeda."

... no, we've incited millions of people worldwide who otherwise would look up to us and cooperate with us economically, etc., but now have a seething hatred towards us. We've caused Al Qaeda to grow like a tumor on steroids.

And for nearly ten years, LICcomm, you've been like a gum-smacking cheerleader for it, jumping up and down with matching pom-poms. [julialg's been behind the bleachers with various peanut vendors and the like. or so she wishes, anyway. still no luck.]

alan, thanks for reminding everyone how misinformed and delusional you are.

alanhart I agree with you about Iraq and Afghanistan. But, under this regime we are still in those countries. Plus Gitmo is still in high gear. How come all you progressives aren't chaining yourselves to the community organizer's gates at his Chicago home?

At last! Thank you julia.

julialg,
'That's it! That is the reason the left, the liberals, the progressives love failure. They hate success and individualism. It frightens them to death.'
you're kidding me...right? You just typed this? Do you really think this?

a roof top overlooking Rome with wifi access...how relaxing...sipping red wine and shooting fish in barrels...that sounds great!

http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/envy-hatred_of_the_good_for_being_the_good.html

falcogold1 I will not accept a psychiatric fee.

julia--still looking for your country of origin. latitude/longitude perhaps?

"The uber-conservatives on this thread clearly have learned how to distort what others say and reduce "liberal" notions to very basic and trite statements."

"julia you are right. Classic limousine liberal mentality."

That didn't take long.

julia you are right. Classic limousine liberal mentality."

bjw2103 I didn't write that. Wake up!!!!

"Go to each page of this thread and run a Ctrl-search of "all bears". The only one who used that phrase was you."

Yes, because this is the ONLY thread you have ever posted on.

ROTFL.

"sme, you were wrong and others were right. "

Sorry, nope, you can keep repeating yourself, I was right. Just because you've said I claimed 50% doesn't make it so.

Sorry, toots, you were just wrong...

"It is sad how LICcomm wishes to dupe people into sticking their heads in the sand, instead of looking at the historical patterns of New York's long, drawn-out, yet very substantial price-plummets in the residential real estate market."

Well, its not like he wasn't just as wrong 2 years ago...

"sad how lic needs to convince himself that the economy and real estate prices are strong so that he feels intelligent about his purchase in lic."

You hit the nail on the head.

"I have no agenda, lic. I spent the years from 2004 on claiming that we had over levered and that excruciatingly bad underwriting practices along with stagnant income growth would bite us in the ass. I'm not feeling particularly stupid at the moment. what were you saying?"

Yeah, its funny how LIC is now attacking Alan. Who for the most part hasn't really been a big pusher either way. He's fairly level headed....

But not surprising that he's making things up to attack me at the same time going after Alan.

And now he's going after AR, too.

Pretty much tells the story there...

"For as much abuse that is thrown LICC's way, I don't find him nasty at all. He actually handles himself quite well."

Juice, I think you just have a supershort memory.

j,
so none of us have clear critical thinking skills?
none of us have achieved any level of emotional maturity?
we are just a big group of stimulus response mechanisms playing a giant game of keeping up with the Joneses.
The right has delivered an unmitigated mess. You want to hand it back to them? What? Our international conditions are not bad enough? Our economy is not screwed enough? Our educational system needs a little more white washing?

julia, no you didn't, but LICComm did. Thanks.

And there's the mighty crusader, right on cue, parsing away.

sme- I don't have to prove a negative. You have not shown one instance where I said "all bears". You just made it up, like lots of things.

I don't recall what you predicted years ago, or if you were even on this board. You are wrong in your statement that only a small number of people on the board predicted more than a 20% decline. That is what you are dead wrong about. Lots of the bears (not all, can you read that correctly?) here predicted 50% or more declines. And they were wrong.

I don't need to convince myself of anything to be happy with my situation. I have owned for over twelve years, I live in a terrific neighborhood in a great condo the value of which has held up very well through the market downturn. I would much rather be in my situation than be a renter this whole time.

sme, your arguments look worse and worse and you are trying to spin your way out of them even faster, but you are going nowhere.

Can we talk about something a little less contentious? How about religion?

Nice JM. Who are the atheists and who are the believers?

cc What do you think? Care to expand on any theories? Any thoughts? Any opinions?
Oh, yeah, I forgot, just petty little comments.

We're nihilists, Lebowski. We believe in nothing.

One of my favorite movies.

LICcomm and julialg are proponents of Dianetics.

alanhart No comment about Gitmo. You should be screaming bloody hell.

alanhat GITMO?

My first act will be to close Gitmo. The community organizer.

2 years later. We are still oppressing those poor people in Gitmo.

Where is the left? The progressives? Gitmo still running strong. Gitmo is creating all those enemies
in the muslim countries. We have to close it. We are like nazis.

hahahahahahahahah What hypocites. What phonies and frauds.

Looks like the orderlies found her.

cc What do you think? Care to expand on any theories? Any thoughts? Any opinions?
Oh, yeah, I forgot, just petty little comments.

alanhat GITMO?

My first act will be to close Gitmo. The community organizer.

2 years later. We are still oppressing those poor people in Gitmo.