The numbers I promised Friday... these numbers seem to generate a lot of screaming (mainly from LICC) but I think there is a lot to see in these numbers. Just helps give a more robust picture of the market. Seems to indicate that while we have had a bit of an uptick since the worst of things, the overall median increases - influenced by the blend - might be covering up the apples to apples story.... [more]
The numbers I promised Friday... these numbers seem to generate a lot of screaming (mainly from LICC) but I think there is a lot to see in these numbers. Just helps give a more robust picture of the market. Seems to indicate that while we have had a bit of an uptick since the worst of things, the overall median increases - influenced by the blend - might be covering up the apples to apples story.
All numbers Manhattan Miller Samuel quarterly data, co-ops and condo (the standard pool from the market reportsO. First number is current down, number in parentheses is % off at lowest point.
Median per category:
Studio - 18% off peak current (25% off peak at last trough)
1 bed - 20% (21%)
2 bed - 24% (29%)
3 bed - 40% (48%)
4 bed + - 61% (90%)
overall - 12% (21%)
Seems to show that the overall median number is deceiving, being impacted by the blend of apartments more than the market itself....
Here are the numbers PPSF
Studio - 23% off peak current (30% off peak at last trough)
1 bed - 27% (27%)
2 bed - 26% (28%)
3 bed - 29% (37%)
4 bed + - 36% (67%)
overall - 20%
And a fairly big surprise.... one bedrooms haven't even had a dead cat bounce.
Two bedrooms are within a couple of points.
Seems like larger recovered a bit, and shifted the blend...
[less]
You know, with prices getting lower, some of the rent/buy equations are starting to look a little better.
With a hypothetical nothing down, monthly payment is $2100 before tax benefits. I figure a studio around there would be running around $1500? That sound right?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
about 14 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
Miller Samuel Q3 data out. Overall median down a hair YoY, up 6% QoQ. Category medians are actually up on the low side, down on the high side.
Here is where it nets out... current median vs. peak (max decline in %)
Brooks, you interrupted somewhereelse's 10 month conversation with himself.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 13 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
yes, i was very happy being alone with my thoughts.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 13 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
OK, June is ending... anyone want to wager on where the numbers are going this month?
I say things are still pretty nasty out there... but 28.8% down in real terms is a lot in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't be surprised with a couple percentage points increase... but still staying over 20% down...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by huntersburg
over 13 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
No one is intersted in this thread, even Brooks2 was only humoring you.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by yikes
over 13 years ago
Posts: 1016
Member since: Mar 2012
i like this thread--it's a data heads up, so i dont have to remember to check--data speaks for itself--doesnt require a lot of chatter
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by huntersburg
over 13 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Wbuttocks used to do such a good job ignoring me.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 13 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
So, the numbers are out... don't have time for the full analysis yet... but the highlights...
studios down again... to the lowest levels since 2005 (in nominal terms)
1 bedrooms up $25k, 2 bed up $35k, 3 bedrooms bounced back to the quarter before. Median overall 830k... which is where we were at the beginning of 2006 in nominal terms.
I'll try to get the full analysis in the next day or two.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by concernedbuthopeful
over 13 years ago
Posts: 29
Member since: Apr 2009
Seeing some strength in 1BR's in my building ,is that citywide or just UES ?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 13 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
citywide... up $25k median (but still down considerably versus peak).
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 13 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
OK, here it is...
overall median up to 19% off peak...
Here they are by category... studios actually hit a low...
Studios - 29.9% (this is lowest point since crash)
1 Bedrooms - 18.2% (26.7%)
2 Bedrooms - 25.2% (28.8%)
3 Bedrooms - 43.1% (54.1%)
4 Bedrooms+ - 57.1% (67.3%)
In real terms, figure you are adding another 3-5% loss...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 12 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
Off the MS numbers for Q4.... $829k median overall.... 19.1% off peak (1,025,000 q2 2008). Trying to pull the by categories now.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
over 12 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
OK, here it is... manhattan median by categories (with largest decline since crash began in %).
2 Bed are actually near their bottom in *nominal* terms... and we're off the bottom, but not by a ton in real terms. We are at 2004 or even 2003 prices in real terms...
Overall - Currently 19.9% Down (24.4% was peak decline, Q1 2012)
Studios - 17.8% Down (29.9%)
1 Bed - 20.1% Down (26.7%)
2 Bed - 27.3% Down (28.8%)
3 Bed - 39.9% Down (54.1%)
4 Bed + - 19.9% Down (23.7%)
In real terms (using CPI adjustment)
Overall - Currently 23.9% Down (27.5% was peak decline, Q1 2011)
Studios - 21.9% Down (28.6%)
1 Bed - 24.1% Down (30.4%)
2 Bed - 30.9% Down (30.3%)
3 Bed - 44.7% Down (51.0%)
4 Bed + - 65.6% Down (23.7%)
Time point we are at with prices....
Studio - median in real terms is at 2005 Q1-2 prices
1 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q4 prices
2 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q2-3 prices
3 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q1 prices
4 Bed+ - median in real terms is at 2003 Q3 prices
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
> This one is just $10k less than its last selling price, but some are $20k to $40k less.
> http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/582436-coop-144-park-place-park-slope-brooklyn
You know, with prices getting lower, some of the rent/buy equations are starting to look a little better.
With a hypothetical nothing down, monthly payment is $2100 before tax benefits. I figure a studio around there would be running around $1500? That sound right?
Miller Samuel Q3 data out. Overall median down a hair YoY, up 6% QoQ. Category medians are actually up on the low side, down on the high side.
Here is where it nets out... current median vs. peak (max decline in %)
Studios - 19.8% (24.8%)
1 Bedrooms - 15.1% (23.3%)
2 Bedrooms - 18.8% (28.8%)
3 Bedrooms - 31.8% (48%)
4 Bedrooms+ - 59.9% (67.3%)
Will be interesting to see when the panic months transactions hit...
Been a while, but here is the update...
overall median down to 24.4% off peak... 28.2% in real terms.
Here they are by category... studios actually popped up a bit...
Studios - 14.8% (24.8%)
1 Bedrooms - 21.4% (26.7%)
2 Bedrooms - 27.3% (28.8%)
3 Bedrooms - 54.1% (this is the low)
4 Bedrooms+ - 58.8% (67.3%)
i guess they sky is falling still
Buy now or be priced out forever.
Brooks, you interrupted somewhereelse's 10 month conversation with himself.
yes, i was very happy being alone with my thoughts.
OK, June is ending... anyone want to wager on where the numbers are going this month?
I say things are still pretty nasty out there... but 28.8% down in real terms is a lot in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't be surprised with a couple percentage points increase... but still staying over 20% down...
No one is intersted in this thread, even Brooks2 was only humoring you.
i like this thread--it's a data heads up, so i dont have to remember to check--data speaks for itself--doesnt require a lot of chatter
Wbuttocks used to do such a good job ignoring me.
So, the numbers are out... don't have time for the full analysis yet... but the highlights...
studios down again... to the lowest levels since 2005 (in nominal terms)
1 bedrooms up $25k, 2 bed up $35k, 3 bedrooms bounced back to the quarter before. Median overall 830k... which is where we were at the beginning of 2006 in nominal terms.
I'll try to get the full analysis in the next day or two.
Seeing some strength in 1BR's in my building ,is that citywide or just UES ?
citywide... up $25k median (but still down considerably versus peak).
OK, here it is...
overall median up to 19% off peak...
Here they are by category... studios actually hit a low...
Studios - 29.9% (this is lowest point since crash)
1 Bedrooms - 18.2% (26.7%)
2 Bedrooms - 25.2% (28.8%)
3 Bedrooms - 43.1% (54.1%)
4 Bedrooms+ - 57.1% (67.3%)
In real terms, figure you are adding another 3-5% loss...
Off the MS numbers for Q4.... $829k median overall.... 19.1% off peak (1,025,000 q2 2008). Trying to pull the by categories now.
OK, here it is... manhattan median by categories (with largest decline since crash began in %).
2 Bed are actually near their bottom in *nominal* terms... and we're off the bottom, but not by a ton in real terms. We are at 2004 or even 2003 prices in real terms...
Overall - Currently 19.9% Down (24.4% was peak decline, Q1 2012)
Studios - 17.8% Down (29.9%)
1 Bed - 20.1% Down (26.7%)
2 Bed - 27.3% Down (28.8%)
3 Bed - 39.9% Down (54.1%)
4 Bed + - 19.9% Down (23.7%)
In real terms (using CPI adjustment)
Overall - Currently 23.9% Down (27.5% was peak decline, Q1 2011)
Studios - 21.9% Down (28.6%)
1 Bed - 24.1% Down (30.4%)
2 Bed - 30.9% Down (30.3%)
3 Bed - 44.7% Down (51.0%)
4 Bed + - 65.6% Down (23.7%)
Time point we are at with prices....
Studio - median in real terms is at 2005 Q1-2 prices
1 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q4 prices
2 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q2-3 prices
3 Bed - median in real terms is at 2004 Q1 prices
4 Bed+ - median in real terms is at 2003 Q3 prices