Condo sales went up last quarter because prices went down -- in a big way. But the developers jigger the numbers so that WSJ/ NYT can report glowing sales/price figures w/o ever questioning the data. Case in point. 303 E 33rd. A 2 bed listed at $1.6 then dropped to $1.25. Sold for $1.18. SE has the sale recorded as down 5% (off the discounted price). When, in fact, these condos began to sell... [more]
Condo sales went up last quarter because prices went down -- in a big way. But the developers jigger the numbers so that WSJ/ NYT can report glowing sales/price figures w/o ever questioning the data.
Case in point. 303 E 33rd. A 2 bed listed at $1.6 then dropped to $1.25. Sold for $1.18. SE has the sale recorded as down 5% (off the discounted price). When, in fact, these condos began to sell because the price dropped 25%. Another listing has price up 1% off discounted price instead of reflecting a deep discount. Plus, did the developer which is terribly concerned about their stock price throw in some perks? Did they pay for closing costs, parking, etc? They had to do something to start moving these turkeys. But I'm sure the WSJ journal takes the 5% down into their figures. No wonder their report said condo prices down 16%. You can't follow these boards and believe that for a second -- particularly if you factor in Fidi and BKyn.
SE: Please correct your records. Don't accept the drivel these developers send you.
10/03/2008
Previously Listed by Cantor and Pecorella at $1,595,000.
09/21/2009
Cantor and Pecorella Listing entered contract.
10/08/2009
Listed by Cantor and Pecorella at $1,250,000.
04/24/2010
Listing sold.
07/21/2010
Sale recorded for $1,186,261.
[less]
Response by caramia311
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 19
Member since: Aug 2007
Your criticism makes no sense. SE reports the percentage off last ask. But they also have all of the correct asking prices. What exactly did you want them to correct?
You realize don't you that the "prices down" figure reflects down from previous sale prices, not down from asking prices?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by apt23
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Plus, if developers can try and finesse the prices in NYC by asking outrageous asking prices and count on the fact that uninformed buyers will just accept those prices as actual value, why shouldn't the discounts become part of the public record. We need transparency precisely because buyers -- and especially foreign buyers-- will not be scammed. Why shouldn't the 60-86% discounts at the Apthorp become part of public record. If the recent WSJ article that reported condo sales up but prices down 16% was changed to down 40-60% we would have a different market and a much more accurately informed buyer.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by apt23
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
What figures are journalists using when they calculate new condo prices down? The original ask or last ask? I contend that if developers want to put up trial balloon prices, then stats that are given to journalists should reflect the decline from that price point. Then a buyer is more informed about actual value.
I know prices down are from last sale. But in new buildings that is not possible. How can the WSJ report condo sales down 16% when a large part of those sales are new condos. Unless new condo stats don't figure into the journalists figures. Do you think that 16% down is only on resales? If so, there should be a separate figure for how far down new sales are from original ask. This would discourage developers from taking advantage of uninformed buyers.
Right now when a foreigner comes to town to buy a condo and they are unaware that a developers prices are ridiculous -- like the Apthorp, They are apt to get taken to the cleaners and overpay vs. all their neighbors. Is it any different from the old unregulated taxi cabs telling foreigners that the ride to manhattan from the airport is $200.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Mikev
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 431
Member since: Jun 2010
I disagree as there is a difference between a new development and a resale. You are trying to manipulate the market facts by taking a developer who wants a price that he most likely was never going to get but that is what was filed in the offering plan and what the market value truly was. Remember each time a developer changes prices he has to file an amendment with the attorney general.
What is reflective of the market is the resales which show the 16-20% off peak from 2008. To try and manipulate the numbers further by saying that the devloper that decided he had an apartment worth 2 million so that is what he filed in the plan, because he assumed the market would go up forever, but in reality it peaked and dropped. by the time he came to market the apartment value was lower. I would think the proper discount is the difference between what they expected after market drop and final sale.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Big discounts at the Apthorp were based on fully renovated prices but the buyers took the apartments as is. This is understandable given the ridiculous reno costs, and the desire of the developer to get their 25 in the bag. There is both risk and benefit to being one of the first and I think this was reflected in the final numbers.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by sidelinesitter
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
Hey spinnaker, who invited you and your balanced commentary supported facts to this thread anyway? You damn fair-minded Canadians really know how to mess up a good rant.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Speak for your damn self cod boy. I've been noticing plenty of ridiculously level headed input from you recently too. What's the deal? Just back from summering on the Grand Banks?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by NotCarlosSlim
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2010
Foreigners are stupid and need to be protected by Americans.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bjw2103
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
apt23, it sounds to me like you're just confused as to what pricing measures are used. Asking/list prices are mostly irrelevant - the correlation to actual value can fluctuate wildly, so I would be highly wary of anyone claiming a discount from an asking price as a legitimate indicator of market movement. You have to use recent sales prices (that is, closed deals) to get a more authentic "discount." For new development, you should be able to find a comparable unit nearby, even if it's not the same building. When the media talks about "prices" they generally refer to average or median prices for the area, not specific apartments.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bjw2103
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
spinnaker, which part of Canada are we talking about (aboot?) here?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Carlos, I think it makes more sense this way:
Foreigners are protected by stupid Americans.
Sorry westie this whole new decorum thing is like a fragile ceasefire.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
oops not westies thread, my apologies apt23
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by NotCarlosSlim
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2010
All foreigners are stupid and can be duped. Even Canadians. We need to protect the foreigners from developer drivel.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by sidelinesitter
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
spin - Northumberland Strait, not Grand Banks. Same coast anyway.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by apt23
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Forgive me for trying to make a point in such a convoluted manner. Too little time (I am supposed to be working) and too much coffee this morning.
What I am asking is this: Where are stats reported that reflect:
a) New condo ask price X in yr Y
b) New condo discount ask (X minus ?%) in yr Y + ? months
c) New condo actual closings at discount to discount ask --(X minus ?%) minus ?%
Shouldn't the difference between a and c be public knowledge. Shouldn't reporters telegraph how much prices are down from developers original asks -- after all developers wouldn't budge from their asks just a few years ago. Now that they are, we should know exactly by how much because if reflects the market. Just as their inflated price sales reflected the market a few years ago
The buyers at 303 started buying because the high powered team at Toll Brothers, (or their reps) sat buyers down and sold them a deal of a life time at 25% off. When the buyers offered even a few points lower they probably thought they were genius. But I am willing to bet that 2-3 yrs from now, resales for that building will go for $800 psf and those genius buyers will be underwater. (from the $1000 + that they actually paid). If there were WSJ stories trumpeting the fact that 25% down (off original ask) is the new norm for new condos, then those 303 buyers would not have been suckered. They might have even done some research.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
bjw2103 my Canadian homes
montreal, hudson, como (la belle provence)
windsor, peterborough (ontario)
camrose, edmonton, bragg creek, calgary, banff (alberta)
victoria (bc)
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by NotCarlosSlim
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2010
Those buyers thought they were genius, but little do they know how much smarter some others truly are who wouldn't have been duped. Those dumb foreigners.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by spinnaker1
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Sounds idyllically maritimey sls
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bjw2103
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
spin, lovely locales. Wish I knew Alberta at all though. I love BC for the oysters alone.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by apt23
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
spin: i looked at the apthorp. Those closing prices are significantly off the non reno ask prices. Not 60% but at least 40%
bjw-- prices in the area do not really provide accurate comps for new condo development. Do you really think the sales team at The Harrison would accept comps to the area? Or 15CPW? So how are the new condo discounts accounted for in market stats? Not at all?
If reporters report new condo discounts at all, I am sure it is based on stats the developers give them. So if they used to sell at $1500 psf and then filed to drop their prices to $1100psf, then any subsequent sale at $1000 would be reported as 10% down. And that news in a down market would look pretty good. But ask the guy who paid $1500psf about the state of the market and you would get a different story.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bjw2103
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
"bjw-- prices in the area do not really provide accurate comps for new condo development. Do you really think the sales team at The Harrison would accept comps to the area? Or 15CPW? So how are the new condo discounts accounted for in market stats? Not at all?"
I kind of disagree here - there are a few exceptions where comps just don't really seem to exist, and 15CPW is one of them, but for the most part (and frankly, I don't think many 15CPW buyers spend much time here, or worrying too much about comps for that matter) there are comps out there. If you want to run a few units on here, I think enough of us could help out.
New condo "discounts" are accounted for in the market stats - it matters which stats you're looking at of course. But if you're seeing condos are down 16%, they are likely talking about a median or average price for all condos, regardless of whether they're brand new or not. I'm not sure what you're getting at - that the developers are somehow fudging the numbers? I've seen no evidence of that. If a property actually sold at $1500 psf, that's in the public record, and noted as peak (unless something topped it of course). If they merely asked $1500 and never got it, well - and you'll have to excuse my French - it's kind of like a fart in the wind.
Your criticism makes no sense. SE reports the percentage off last ask. But they also have all of the correct asking prices. What exactly did you want them to correct?
You realize don't you that the "prices down" figure reflects down from previous sale prices, not down from asking prices?
Plus, if developers can try and finesse the prices in NYC by asking outrageous asking prices and count on the fact that uninformed buyers will just accept those prices as actual value, why shouldn't the discounts become part of the public record. We need transparency precisely because buyers -- and especially foreign buyers-- will not be scammed. Why shouldn't the 60-86% discounts at the Apthorp become part of public record. If the recent WSJ article that reported condo sales up but prices down 16% was changed to down 40-60% we would have a different market and a much more accurately informed buyer.
What figures are journalists using when they calculate new condo prices down? The original ask or last ask? I contend that if developers want to put up trial balloon prices, then stats that are given to journalists should reflect the decline from that price point. Then a buyer is more informed about actual value.
I know prices down are from last sale. But in new buildings that is not possible. How can the WSJ report condo sales down 16% when a large part of those sales are new condos. Unless new condo stats don't figure into the journalists figures. Do you think that 16% down is only on resales? If so, there should be a separate figure for how far down new sales are from original ask. This would discourage developers from taking advantage of uninformed buyers.
Right now when a foreigner comes to town to buy a condo and they are unaware that a developers prices are ridiculous -- like the Apthorp, They are apt to get taken to the cleaners and overpay vs. all their neighbors. Is it any different from the old unregulated taxi cabs telling foreigners that the ride to manhattan from the airport is $200.
I disagree as there is a difference between a new development and a resale. You are trying to manipulate the market facts by taking a developer who wants a price that he most likely was never going to get but that is what was filed in the offering plan and what the market value truly was. Remember each time a developer changes prices he has to file an amendment with the attorney general.
What is reflective of the market is the resales which show the 16-20% off peak from 2008. To try and manipulate the numbers further by saying that the devloper that decided he had an apartment worth 2 million so that is what he filed in the plan, because he assumed the market would go up forever, but in reality it peaked and dropped. by the time he came to market the apartment value was lower. I would think the proper discount is the difference between what they expected after market drop and final sale.
Big discounts at the Apthorp were based on fully renovated prices but the buyers took the apartments as is. This is understandable given the ridiculous reno costs, and the desire of the developer to get their 25 in the bag. There is both risk and benefit to being one of the first and I think this was reflected in the final numbers.
Hey spinnaker, who invited you and your balanced commentary supported facts to this thread anyway? You damn fair-minded Canadians really know how to mess up a good rant.
Speak for your damn self cod boy. I've been noticing plenty of ridiculously level headed input from you recently too. What's the deal? Just back from summering on the Grand Banks?
Foreigners are stupid and need to be protected by Americans.
apt23, it sounds to me like you're just confused as to what pricing measures are used. Asking/list prices are mostly irrelevant - the correlation to actual value can fluctuate wildly, so I would be highly wary of anyone claiming a discount from an asking price as a legitimate indicator of market movement. You have to use recent sales prices (that is, closed deals) to get a more authentic "discount." For new development, you should be able to find a comparable unit nearby, even if it's not the same building. When the media talks about "prices" they generally refer to average or median prices for the area, not specific apartments.
spinnaker, which part of Canada are we talking about (aboot?) here?
Carlos, I think it makes more sense this way:
Foreigners are protected by stupid Americans.
Sorry westie this whole new decorum thing is like a fragile ceasefire.
oops not westies thread, my apologies apt23
All foreigners are stupid and can be duped. Even Canadians. We need to protect the foreigners from developer drivel.
spin - Northumberland Strait, not Grand Banks. Same coast anyway.
Forgive me for trying to make a point in such a convoluted manner. Too little time (I am supposed to be working) and too much coffee this morning.
What I am asking is this: Where are stats reported that reflect:
a) New condo ask price X in yr Y
b) New condo discount ask (X minus ?%) in yr Y + ? months
c) New condo actual closings at discount to discount ask --(X minus ?%) minus ?%
Shouldn't the difference between a and c be public knowledge. Shouldn't reporters telegraph how much prices are down from developers original asks -- after all developers wouldn't budge from their asks just a few years ago. Now that they are, we should know exactly by how much because if reflects the market. Just as their inflated price sales reflected the market a few years ago
The buyers at 303 started buying because the high powered team at Toll Brothers, (or their reps) sat buyers down and sold them a deal of a life time at 25% off. When the buyers offered even a few points lower they probably thought they were genius. But I am willing to bet that 2-3 yrs from now, resales for that building will go for $800 psf and those genius buyers will be underwater. (from the $1000 + that they actually paid). If there were WSJ stories trumpeting the fact that 25% down (off original ask) is the new norm for new condos, then those 303 buyers would not have been suckered. They might have even done some research.
bjw2103 my Canadian homes
montreal, hudson, como (la belle provence)
windsor, peterborough (ontario)
camrose, edmonton, bragg creek, calgary, banff (alberta)
victoria (bc)
Those buyers thought they were genius, but little do they know how much smarter some others truly are who wouldn't have been duped. Those dumb foreigners.
Sounds idyllically maritimey sls
spin, lovely locales. Wish I knew Alberta at all though. I love BC for the oysters alone.
spin: i looked at the apthorp. Those closing prices are significantly off the non reno ask prices. Not 60% but at least 40%
bjw-- prices in the area do not really provide accurate comps for new condo development. Do you really think the sales team at The Harrison would accept comps to the area? Or 15CPW? So how are the new condo discounts accounted for in market stats? Not at all?
If reporters report new condo discounts at all, I am sure it is based on stats the developers give them. So if they used to sell at $1500 psf and then filed to drop their prices to $1100psf, then any subsequent sale at $1000 would be reported as 10% down. And that news in a down market would look pretty good. But ask the guy who paid $1500psf about the state of the market and you would get a different story.
"bjw-- prices in the area do not really provide accurate comps for new condo development. Do you really think the sales team at The Harrison would accept comps to the area? Or 15CPW? So how are the new condo discounts accounted for in market stats? Not at all?"
I kind of disagree here - there are a few exceptions where comps just don't really seem to exist, and 15CPW is one of them, but for the most part (and frankly, I don't think many 15CPW buyers spend much time here, or worrying too much about comps for that matter) there are comps out there. If you want to run a few units on here, I think enough of us could help out.
New condo "discounts" are accounted for in the market stats - it matters which stats you're looking at of course. But if you're seeing condos are down 16%, they are likely talking about a median or average price for all condos, regardless of whether they're brand new or not. I'm not sure what you're getting at - that the developers are somehow fudging the numbers? I've seen no evidence of that. If a property actually sold at $1500 psf, that's in the public record, and noted as peak (unless something topped it of course). If they merely asked $1500 and never got it, well - and you'll have to excuse my French - it's kind of like a fart in the wind.