Showdown: Biased J Miller vs SteveF

anybody else care to step up with their crystal ball?

steve, would you argue that it doesn't depend on jobs? My inclination is to agree with Miller there. I don't see any compelling evidence that the market will strengthen in any significant way for the rest of the year. Summer is seasonally slow, and no real reason for the fall to see much improvement over an already healthy spring. I don't see a major leg down this year, but I don't see what you do either.

What do you base such unbridled optimism on? I don't mean to sound snarky, just curious.

nice unemployment claims num this morning--there goes hope for a positive nfp

bjw2103/KeithB (1)inventory levels/no new development(no credit to build from July 07-spring 09) (2)Stock market gains (3)Improving economy. (3)Overall sentiment/media news improving. (4)lowest Mortgage rates on record. (5) Europe credit stability (6) Jobs will improve also but that is a minimal effect as most layoffs are lower level employees(juniors/staffs/seniors)w no impact on real estate values, they keep the stats up but meaningless buyer impact.

The only area I have some concern about or less knowledge about is shadow inventory. But I've been hearing about SI for many years now so it loses it's credibility also those shadow buildings are signing contracts 303e 33rd, Apthrop, etc(see curbed).

I wish I knew what Jon miller was basing his conclusions on. All i have is his Super Bowl comment

what's your thoughts Guys? I'm def. interested to hear.

steve, developers may not be building nearly as much right now, but plenty of buildings that did start construction in boomier times are only coming to market now or very recently. That'll keep inventory from nosediving, I think. The stock market - I have no idea, but my gut tells me there won't be massive gains anytime soon. "Overall sentiment" is kind of gibberishy to me - it's not a real indicator in my book and entirely subjective it seems. The mortgage rates have been low for a while - do you see them getting lower? And I still think jobs are crucial - if you think layoffs are only lower level employees, you should speak to the 3 top-level guys who just got canned here.

bjw, fair enough. Do you have a list or know of any of those buildings that are coming to market?

I say: BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

Let's start a list.

In addition to 303 East 33rd and the Apthorp, some others are:

Azure
Isis
Tempo
One Madison Park (complete and has had 13 closings, but none on the last 6 months and much inventory to clear)
The Cammeyer (one closing so far)
The Alexander (13 closings so far)

You could fairly add some of the FiDi buildings that have been open a while but have a lot of unsold inventory. I think 75 Wall would be one of those.

steveF - there is also a fairly recent vintage shadow inventory thread. It has more of the buildings that are somewhere in the middle of the process of selling out, as opposed to just coming to market, but it's also relevant to your question.

steveF, this thread has some I believe:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21285-shadow-inventory-for-fun-and-entertainment

It's like going to a beauty pagent to see "how would you bring world peace" question answered.

WTF? Seriously, keep you hands in your pants and stare only at the T&A or foreclosures as it were....

FLMAOZzzzzzzzzz...... Apparently I MISSED the boat again,,,,,, but but but what about ALL the SHADOW and foreclosure? That about the millions of unit that'll list as soon as we hit $1500 psf again?

FLMAOzzzzzz.....

sideline, I think the 303 east 33rd is 60% sold:

The Toll Brothers' sustainable design attempt at 303 East 33rd Street is the Toll building surrounded by the least chatter, probably because units have been going into contract relatively steadily and there isn't a toxic wasteland in the vicinity. The Real Deal notes that move-ins at the building have begun, and the building is 60 percent sold

info on Azure:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/press/reflects-rebounding-nyc-market,1409559.html

Anybody have infor on the rest of sideline's list?

Steve: Developers may not be building so much now? One developer: Extell. Planning 2500 apts for riverside drive which will take a while to get thru commission plans but it is being negotiated now. Also they have a hole on W 57 street that they have the backing for and are ready to build a hotel and 136 expensive condos. That will probably start soon since they have the money. Plus they have an empty building on CPS with two lots behind it that they are preparing to tear down and build a gigantic building. I can't find any plans or loans for the CPS building but how long can they sit on an empty building and two expensive lots without doing anything? Quite the tax burden considering it is some of the highest taxed RE in manhattan.

http://www.observer.com/2010/real-estate/preposterously-expensive-condo-planned-w-57th-street

thx bjw...i remember that thread. We need a list. Would take a lot of work. Can anyone put it together? if someone does it I'm sure it would be a very popular list with Curb, UD, Gotham real Deal all the blogs/media would pick it up. You'd have your 15 minutes. :)

sure apt23 as underwriting eases builders build but it takes time. There seems to be nothing in the pipeline for short term(next 2+ years) Anybody know differently???

There are sales updates on 650 Sixth Avenue The Cammeyer and 141 Fifth Avenue in this column on the residential transformation of Ladies' Mile. At the Cammeyer, 10 contracts have been signed, with another handful pending, for $845,000-$3.25 million. At 141 Fifth, only the penthouse and a few other apartments have yet to sell. [Posting/'New Housing Comes to Ladies' Mile']
Curbed June 2010

The Cammeyer(above)

75 Wall: Wanted to practically give a unit away, in return for hosting parties in it to attract potential buyers.
I don't throw parties at home. I've got friends and clients who own restaurants ,to throw cool parties in.

steveF - 303 East 33rd has closed 5 units. Personally, I'm taking the under on the 60% sold claim. As for Azure, no closings, but the article you link to has the broker frothing at the mouth about how much he's selling. I'll take the under on any number he states, sight unseen. I'm confident that there are in contract but not yet closed units at both buildings (although not hugely confident in the Azure case), but even more confident that developer speak with forked tongue.

Just for entertainment, have a look through the SE threads on the Azure and follow what people reported being told by the sales office over the last year-ish about % sold and when closings and move-ins will start. Hilarious even by the standards of a new dev sales office.

maybe West81st can help us shadow people out. He's a guy who's in the know. I bet he could put something together and would probably love the challenge.

steveF - I believe that compiling a list of shadow inventory was that apt23 had in mind when she started the thread that bjw pointed you to. She posted a bunch of buildings. I posted a bunch. Other posted a bunch. Feel free to chip in.

I doubt that you're going to find anyone to undertake to do all of Manhattan and deliver you a pretty spreadsheet with a bow around it. If anyone is doing the work, it's J Miller and he isn't going to be sharing his data while he's got a vulture investing venture going on.

thx sideline, i'll use it.
I like that.....vulture investing venture....the old VIV

To be clear, my suggestion was that you contribute to it, not just use it.

What about a pent up desperation thread. For example 42 apts for sale at 120 Riverside Blvd. But there have only been 5 closed sales since October of 2006!!.. Even with the tax credits!! So imagine how many must have taken their apts off the market or rented them out. Or the Orion with 37 apts for sale. Many are underwater there and many have taken their apts off the market. There are many other buildings with these problems.

steveF, forget w81.... he's gone over to the dark side...

steveF.....making predictions

The stevemister
steve-arinO
steve-ster
...........making predictions

falco checks his crystal balls

still blue from the last predictions

making copies......

got that right
that's how slow this market is.
I smell 500/sqft....

> What do you base such unbridled optimism on? I don't mean to sound snarky, just curious.

Wishing.

> LET'S SEE WHO IS GOING TO BE RIGHT. The so called unbiased PRO or me.

I go with the Miller, who has been mostly right, and not with SteveF, who has been for the most part completely wrong to this point.

Miller saw the crash early, SteveF missed it completely.

Friday, 5pm (N.Y.C. time) August 6th, 2010. We just put down a few quid on somewhereelse.

don't forget Steve called that we'd be 10% over peak in a year...