What capitulation would look like
Started by notadmin
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
Discussion about
As the market changes from a sellers to a buyers one I wonder what would become normal during the bottom (and how long a bottom can persist after being established). We all got tired of hearing "i don't want to throw money away by renting". Would that become "i don't want to throw money away by paying a mortgage and losing the downpayment"? High rates and/or high unemployment are needed for prices to bottom? Would 2k open houses nobody shows up for be the norm?
funny
I think its post all the economy stuff, I think its when folks come up with a new excuse for RE to go up forever. Just need the next bubble.
> its when folks come up with a new excuse for RE to go up forever.
but swelse, that's not what i've seen from capitulations people talk about here, say 1987-1992. some people claim you couldn't give houses away. we are not better economically than during that period, but we all remain still RE obsessed.
it the lack of RE obsession a hallmark of the capitulation? if so, we are really far from it imho.
hey swelse, do you have any idea on these 2 sets of people:
potential buyers: how many 1st time home buyers with cash remain on the sidelines?
potential sellers: how many current or near retirees are counting on that equity for retirement?
hey swelse, do you have any idea on these 2 sets of people:
potential buyers: how many 1st time home buyers with cash remain on the sidelines?
potential sellers: how many current or near retirees are counting on that equity for retirement?
I think the latter is bigger than the former. I think a lot of the former already bought, or were scared off... and I think a lot of folks held off selling if they could, and even more have been scared into trying to get out. But I think this number will increase with prolonged bear market, even a flat one.
Remind us, you said last week "of the thousands of people who touched my wife". Did any of that involve butt plugs or ball gags?
So seriously, when you said "thousands who touched my wife", how many thousands are we talking about? Is this continuing?