Absorption Rates

no your not..but I will tell you that absorption rate is affected big time by extreme moves in recent past, and we had those. In fact, we are still having one. After an extreme surge in activity seeing days on market and absorption rates plunge, we are now seeing a very slow summer the past few months...id expect that rate to move higher at some point in next few months.

UD - but it takes 2 to tango (2 variables that is). You correctly identify that pace of sales (the denominator) is going down, but you assume that properties on the market (the numerator) will remain constant or grow. If properties on the market goes down in pace with sales volume, then the absorption stays the same. Not sure, but for family oriented areas like the East & West sides, I would imagine that most that had to sell sold or pulled from market, and many are just living in their homes. Particulalry in the co-op segment, I don't see why there would be any growth in listings unless there was another shock to the markets or other major event.

I'm not sure where to find the data so I'll just ask.... What is the historical rate of new listings per year in Manhattan? And does anyone have that data stratified by price ranges?

I'm interested to know if there was really a surge of listings that influenced prices down (supply) or if buyers simply demanded better pricing (demand). We'd need data going back to pre-bubble times in order to see the bigger picture. Anyone?

Hahahaahahhaaaaaa. 11k coops from stuy town alone. Aphtorp on it's death bed. A lull bf a serious mkt correction coming in equities. Mkt looking for double dip confirmation. Feds worried about deflation. Tons of bad loans still on banks at par. Hahhhahahahahaaa

oh six seven, youre such a worry wart--you and bernanke, but what does he know?

Wbottom. All of these financial retards don't realize how lazy and privileged most decision makers at major banks are. Theat bp dude sailing a yacht will oil is pumping into the gulf, well imagine every euro CEO, every policy maker, and entire credit depts of banks on that same sailboat. Nothing gets done in august. Come September they'll start making the micro decisions that'll get your attention. Flmaozzzzz

Walter - you could probably go through the monthly reports on Miller's site and crunch the numbers to get what you want. Haven't seen a report that displays exactly what you are trying to get.

67, what is there to say - your opinions are what they are, and on full display for the world to enjoy. I humbly disagree, but I suppose we'll see.

No conclusions can be made about the market until the first few weeks of September AT LEAST! Anyone who hasn't yet listed an apartment into the market isn't going to do it until after Labor Day to keep it from getting stale too quickly. Likewise a lot of buyers won't pull the trigger on something they don't necessarily want until they see what else shows on the market.

It is Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. The more accurately we know where the market is (like right now when there is less movement) the less accurately we know where it is going, and vice versa.

otnyc - very good point..and its also acris sales used for annualized pace of sales for absorption rate. So you got one variable reflecting real time inventory and another variable showing sales pace on a 3-6 month lag from pending sales pace. How many deals closed in first 8 months of 2010, likely reflect market activity from Fall-Early 2010, and not the last 3 months or so.