Do you expect more listings in Sept

For rentals, you may see some more listings come on, but for the most part, the people who are renting the properties should already have them listed for Sept.

As far as sales go, you are going to see a huge influx of listings and price drops in the final week of August leading into the first week of September.

(Matthew Russell - Brown Harris Stevens)

MRussel-- Why do you say price drops? Why would someone wait until then to drop price.....thanks

MRussel: So in about a week from tomorrow/friday we should start seeing inventory climbing dramatically?

Traditionally, the week after labor day starts the second season for real estate listings (the first being spring.) New listings should start in about 2/3 weeks. Also, if you're going to drop your ask, why do it in August, when you can get more interest and attention in september?

People won't drop prices until they feel they have to.

Since little is happening in August on both the buyer and seller side no one has an incentive to mover from whatever position they have. Sellers, wanting to maximize traffic while avoiding a listing becoming stale, will wait until after Labor day to list. Buyers who are interested in buying and haven't already done so will wait to see what kind of new inventory comes on line.

September and October will provide the future market "tells". If there are more people who have been waiting until September to buy than people waiting until September to sell, then prices will hold stable and perhaps rise some. Or vice versa.

As Urbandigs always says, buyer confidence is key. So a lot will also depend on what happens in the market, employment, taxation (probably won't affect until new, smaller, paychecks get sent out in 2011), etc.

One thing is definite. Sales inventory will rise.

Rentals - It is a slower part of the season for rentals. Look for less product to hit the street, but also less demand. This one will progress more slowly. If Demand isn't there then units will languish and you will see price cuts. And vice versa.

Equity mkt is starting to nose bleed. It ain't gonna be pretty if this keeps up in conjunction with ppl needing to unload in fall. It is written thus it will be.

I like this thread. What about "languishing" For Sales deciding to take them off that market and renting instead? Also, maybe approaching the seller or agent of a Languishing For Sale about willingness to rent?

If someone moves their apartment from the "sale" side to the "for rent" side it will affect to depress the rental market, which makes the sales market look all the more over priced.

Removal of a stale sales listing doesn't have an appreciable affect on the sales market since they couldn't have been all that serious about selling, hence the reason the listing is stale. (Too high an ask?) It isn't the inventory #, per se, that sets the relative strength or weakness of the market, but it can have an effect on where the trades are happening. Apartments whose prices are too far out of the market to "trade" don't actually have an impact on market prices.

With respect to rentals, I doubt that you'll find higher rents in September. I just renewed my lease with no rent increase and I recall reading a thread here which indicated rents are either flat or approximately 2% increases. With respect to inventory, I spent about a month looking at possible locations to move and found at least in the UES/UWS 2 bedroom market, there's many options. Check nybits.com and urbansherpa.com for listings.

With respect to sales, I'm hoping but not expecting to find a substantial increase in new listings in late September/October. I think if people have to sell, then they probably waited throughout the summer to list their apartment in early fall. Since I'm assuming that most sellers want high sales prices, what is their motivation to list their apartment in a few weeks unless they really need to sell?

Cause the current batch of lemmings remember pets.com went from $300/share to a sock puppet eBay sale in 12months. Now you rode the greatest NYC re bubble up, no way in hell you'd ever be able to 'earn' that $1mm in gain.... Might as well lock in the $800k gain, no?

Hey Stk mkt is continuing to bleed.

Pets.com, great analogy to real estate.

Hey Lobster, still haven't found a place, huh? Are you seriously looking still? We're close to giving up, just saw a place on UWS that we "really liked," as in the category of realized we have to compromise on some things but thought it was a good value relative to everything we've seen or is still on the market. Put in an offer the day after the first showing and there were FOUR other offers in, two of them higher than ours.

Renewed our lease last month too, so no in a huge rush anymore, but it's just deflating.

yes, nyc10007, still looking. It seems that when a "good" and reasonably priced apartment comes on the market, there's quite a bit of interest as you describe. For me, this is a long-term home so I'm willing to wait for the right opportunity. Hope things work out for you in the near future.

I am convinced that the August-October time frame is the worst possible window to be looking to rent in Manhattan. The market is very tight right now, and no one is negotiating. I just took an 18 month lease so I will be looking again in the Feb-March window.

lobster and 10007, I join you in the club of long-term apartment seekers. It feels like we've been looking to buy on the UWS forever, though it's actually been on and off for a couple of years. It was a distinctly unpleasant experience watching the bizarrely increasing prices of the past few years, but I'm confident that patience will be rewarded. Good luck.

Count me in the club too - three years of looking and counting, and the available apartments right now real dogs, so I am hoping for a lot of new listings in September/October. Otherwise it looks like this process will be dragging out for yet another year, since a spring shopping spree is out of the question.

i'm in the long term looker club too. finally rented. i have 18 months left on my lease. will start looking in the fixer upper category in about 6 months. Will move onto "as is" category closer to the end of my lease.

We just re-signed our lease with a three-month-out clause. The few apartments we've seen this summer were ridiculous, but it's now become a recreational activity for us. Don't give up hope, evnyc and apt23. We will all find homes at the right price if we can tolerate the current uncertainty.

rlmnyc, evnyc and apt23, so interesting to read your comments but sorry that it's taking so long for us all to find apartments. I also have an out clause in my new lease, but I'm not counting on needing to exercise the out unless there's a substantial influx of new listings in the fall. I'll be very interested to see how any new listings are priced. Best of luck to each of you.

Always nice to see a stream of others on here who are in the same boat. I have to re-check my lease, but when I reviewed it a year ago, I remember the language permitted an assignment based on a qualified tenant, with at least 30 days notice. I'm in a Rose building, and believe I'm paying under market, so hopefully they will be happy to have us out of there an simply let us break the lease with sufficient notice (say 2-3 months) rather than dealing with the whole assignment process. I tried to take assignment of a lease a few years back and Rockrose didn't want to deal with it, so they just gave us a new lease with a 10 month term to finish out the balance.

apt23, we've made that move ourselves now, trying to find those places that need a lot of work and others are (hopefully) afraid of. Few and far between in the good neighborhoods, and some sellers still seem to believe a wreck is worth $1,000/ft. Fingers crossed that inventory will jump back in September and the market will settle down.

lookers: here is something else that gave me pause. i happened to talk to a geologist recently-- a type of profession that doesn't come into my worldly circle very often -- and he warned me about the integrity of the buildings around the second ave subway suggesting that evacuations would increase for real reasons. The frightening part was that he would not discuss it. Only wanted to give me a warning as a dear friend of a friend. I later found out that he had a lot of government contracts but I don't know about whether that included NY. Of course, he could just be a whacko conspiracist but I really don't think so. Needless to say, my google search is burning up a new category. So if you are interested in that area, go deeper in your research than normal. Remember our dear govt's pledge that the air around 9/11 collapse was perfectly fine. Keep that in mind when you read the 2nd ave subway reports.

I am not a geologist but with some minor rudimentary knowledge thanks to history,discovery,and national geographic channels :),I know manhattan is some of the toughest bedrock around and I doubt 2nd ave train tunnel building will have too much affect on surrounding foundations.
Unkept or unmaintained 50/100 year old buildings are a risk regardless however, whether we dig or not.

Comez on ppl????!!!!!!! Equity mkt is taking a slow bleed to lows of 2009, china is imploding, japan's export is getting hammered with it's crazy yen, Europe is about to roll over again, all major banks are about to get a call from Fannie/Freddie....... And you think NYC re is gonna not have a second coming this fall?

Seriously, why take a fixer upper? That is so bubble thinking.

w67, I probably agree with you more than anyone else on this board, and definitely foresee another drop, which kills me. But for me, and I believe Apt23, Lobster, rlmnyc and others on here, this is a life decision to buy an apartment, it's not about economics or because we're lemmings.

As for the fixer upper, yeah, I know, I'd prefer not to, but we've seen way too many fugly renovated apartments and I'm not gonna pay for someone else's bad taste just to re-do it or be constantly saying that I would have done things differently.

Honestly, I think we're all hoping for a second coming this fall...

nyc1007, if you know then you know. Back in the day, the only units that sold were pristine units. This whole buy, fix, flip thing is a crazy bubble phenomena... akin to used cars being more expensive than new.

Just hammer them, don't use a fairy land asking price in pristine condition to negotiate yourself into a sink hole of a dump.... carry on.

Sucks to be a first-time home buyer in an environment like this. I can't understand why people chase after half the POS's that I've seen at such ludicrous prices. You bust your ass, save some cash, live frugally (ok, kind of), and when you can afford that $1 million place, what you once knew to be 3+ bedrooms with views has suddenly become a 1 bedroom, shoddy conversion of a commercial building on Park Avenue South facing fire-escapes and your neighbors filthy bathroom window. (yeah, you know I'm talking about you 254 PAS). Did I mention shoddy construction?

I feel better now...

Hm. My perspective is that if prices were really going to tank, they would have done so. Inventory declines don't generally mean price drops, but things are so wacky right now it's impossible for anyone to prognosticate with any credibility. As a fellow first-time buyer, I can't agree more, NYC10007. It seems like every time I walk away from some overpriced, decrepit, too-small, dank apartment on the basis that it is too small, decrepit, dank and overpriced, it winds up selling for a LOT more than I'd ever be willing to pay for it. That's just the reality here, and I worked to damn hard for that down payment to blow it on a place I can't stand living in.

W67: i will not buy until prices are reasonable which I hope will come to pass within 2 years. And if we have more front page press on how dire the markets are, maybe sooner. until then, like you, i continue to look. for me, a fixer upper is a creative enterprise and by definition would be valued at less than a reasonable market norm.

Well, its September.. still not listings. Maybe after labor day?

I am looking at rentals - the Atelier just added about 25 rentals to their list. They now have 77 units for rent!! Still, prices are so high - 3k for a 1br that is practically in NJ. haha

I don't know, riverside. I too await with bated breath, but it might end up being another year in rental purgatory.

"Well, its September.. still not listings. Maybe after labor day?"

Have a broker friend who he alone just signed half a dozen exclusives that will air post labor day.
Some he signed 3 weeks ago. THere will for sure be a surge in inventory in the next 3 weeks.
Don't know about rental market though.

I don't think anyone talking about a listings surge in September was talking about Sept 1.

I have an apartment for rent in a beautiful luxury building on the upper east side... It is a 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom. It could be available as early as Sept. 15th. I can be reached at mealie393@aol.com

Iz feelings it. Brah!!!!!! Herez comes the tsunami of listings. Be scared f'king sellers be very very scared!

'me, gotz me an invite to the 65th annual lahaina to hyc race on a big f'king raceboat. Enjoy your last nice weekend ya lemmings.

acn ouy idg ti?

Funny to see ericho getting his willy hard after a two days rally!
Ericho, rallies are like viagra, they don't last forever so i hope you'll get to use your willy while it lasts.

perspective from an insider: i have seen a few major landlords to a couple of different things, 1. offer a discount on immediate move-ins, and 2, offer move in dates as far as 30 days out. are these concessions on the par of free months of rent, the brokers commission? no. but they do signal a flexibility on the property side which isn't apparent in full-on ll dominated markets. prices and demand remain fairly high, i just think they are hedging against a downturn by locking in as many leases as they can NOW

yes, this fking idiot is flying out to Maui to do the downwind leg of a historic race on a 55+ footer yacht as a guest.... whilst the bucket shop LIC PH peaky top bubble trading "strategist" slaves away to keep his mortgage current and his marriage intact....

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/your-money/04money.html?hpw

Yo Jimnutz.... is that broker babble, for "rents are taking it in the jimmy?"

Wish us luck!

$170,000.00 buys a lot of hookers and pizza.

W67th - I know someone who maintains a large boat, or if you prefer, yacht(buys new one about every 2 years) and sails competitively in races around the world (as a hobby). Boats built for racing are definitely not built for comfort, but are stripped down for speed. Cold rations, close to having to pee in a bucket. "Guests" are usually people who do sail, but are basically invited on board to be ballast. Long races are definitely endurance contests. (Bermuda to Newport for example)

of course there will be more listings..this was the hottest summer on record. the heat wave never went away..from the data I see, everything manhattan real estate slowed big time. Id expect upward momentum from these dull levels in the next few months..if that doesnt happen, then we may need to think about price action and if bids are coming in at lower levels..

Penthouse moron lady!

Race goes the other direction, you idiot.

Oh yeah PH? Well I know someone who buys a yacht every year. He even builds it. And he sails around the world in it. Yeah...like cannonball run, but for boats.
And he doesn't even hold onto his pee. Just takes a leak right over the edge.
Try one upping that

When I was racing it was called rail meat. The hardest part of racing a sailboat is finding reliable crew so you have to sweeten the pot with advanced provisions that include plenty of human and non-human contraband. Bubba should be fine out there, it's the coming home part that could be trouble.

Actually - CC the race went both ways!!

Look up Beau Geste

Worth noting:

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2010/09/07/three_cents_worth_30_days_hath_september_inventory.php

I thought I'd jump back on this thread for a beginning of the week dose of market insight from ericho, but he doesn't seem to be around today.

Oh wait, I almost forgot, the market is down today and the 'ho only comes out of his hole on up days. Sort of a Groundhog Day thing - when he comes out and sees red numbers we get six weeks of peace and quiet with no spam links from yahoofinance

Sort of like the easiest game of whack-a-mole ever, right? That's why I get bored easily.

I feel sorry for you that you get bored by 'ho-whacking. I never do, myself. You are missing out. Really

I have been disappointed with both the quality and quantity of post-labor-day listings; stay tuned for further updates.

i gotta say me too.. where are the apartments?

Possibly the owners are on vacay...using 4 vacation days to take a week-long trip is a popular option. Frankly I wish I'd bought in 2009. Better inventory, terrified sellers were negotiating...now there's so little inventory out there that sellers feel perfectly justified asking for 30% premiums over 2008 prices.

This week is weird because Rosh Hashanah is so early -- I've got a day and a half to return everybody's phone calls and get ready for dinner guests, and then the holiday starts.

Think of the "post-Labor Day rush" as perhaps starting this Sunday the 12th.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Oh, right - forgot about that! Thanks for the reminder, Ali.

sideline, it's not that I don't play from time to time; it's just that I prefer slightly more challenging targets. The ho's comments are fairly inconsequential.

my new systems real time broker updates captured 188 new ACTIVEs yesterday hitting the market

How does that compare to an average day urban

In my search range, there are 6 "new" listings today that all seem decent...oh, except for the whole price thing. Will be interesting to see how this trend continues...

Agreed, NYC10007. The floods of listings for Sheepshead Bay aren't particularly helpful for my search, and there's nothing quite so disappointing as seeing the rare lovely new listing with a delusional seller that apparently thinks, OF COURSE my apartment is worth $250k more than I paid for it two years ago! A 30% markup is completely reasonable to expect!

Sigh.

This month looks about the same as every month, for the last couple years. Granted, my search is pretty low-priced (1BR's under 400K or 2BR's under 500K), but I see nothing substantial added.
The low-end is not near as interesting as the upper-end.