NYC Unemployment and prospects

bob, it's a good thing you posted this on a Friday in August when no one is around. Posting positive economic news will usually make you pretty unpopular around here.

So 8.2% translates to what in real-world figures? 16% unemployment? 18%?

What did 5% translate to in real world figures? 13%? Its all relative. I would take this as postive news for our great city.

Not sure what does the national rate of 9.5% translate to?

"The last time the city's unemployment numbers looked this promising was November 2003 to April 2005. Professional and business services continued to expand with the addition of 5,000 jobs, in a sector known to shed 1,400 jobs over the course of a month."

"New York City and the tri-state area have been ranked a top 10 hiring market for professionals, according to research from the Ladders.com."

"The city ranked fifth in nation with the biggest growth happening in the financial services, software and information technology. Washington, D.C. took first place with the biggest gains being in the information technology and Aerospace/Defense sectors."

Twixt optimist pessimist
The difference is droll:
Optimist sees doughnut;
Pessimist sees hole.

Anyway, the preliminary July data for NYC show an uptick in unemployment (or a "hole", as it's known in verse) so don't start ironing your party dresses yet.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?la+36

The good news: More than 90% (or maybe just more than 80% in real-world terms) of those who want jobs have jobs! That's nearly 100% employment!!!!

Doughnuts are fattening.

"Pessimist sees hole"

Perhaps that would explain the pessimists' holier-than-thou attitude.

"Doughnuts are fattening."

But friggin delicious. And more sustaining than a hole, anyway.

Bob, there's been a long and ongoing conversation about the real unemployment rate vs. the massaged official numbers. If you do a little searching online you'll get the gist of the debate. While it's true that the real unemployment rate is much higher than the stated numbers, it is also true that unemployment has hit certain demographic groups much harder than it has hit the high-paid contingent that actually buy real estate in Manhattan and prime Brooklyn, so I think your interpretation is pretty much spot on.

And now, I do believe I shall have a delicious doughnut from the deli next door. Thanks, Alan.

The Japanese are touted for their longevity. When the oldest Japanese finally died, the state pension wanted to let the 2nd oldest living person know he was #1. They spoke with the 88 yo daughter several times to inquire about her father. It was later learned the father's mummified lay in his bed, having been in said bed for 35 years. Apparently the daughter just wanted to cash the pension checks.

And who wouldn't? I bet she was a spry and happy 88-year old daughter as a result. Good father.

Kate Kelly from CNBC who seems to be a rather reliable reporter just reported today that NYC's financial district may suffer losses in the coming months. Credit Swisse, Deutche and UBS are planning cuts in their equity and fixed income sections. And, most banks will cut next year to conform to fin/reg rules. (Not to mention her reports this week on two hedge funds closing)

That, however does not account for headcount increase banks will probably make to their payrolls for M&A which is likely to increase next year.

I like the whole donut in these volatile times -- kick back and ingest the deep fried dough ---and the hole-- and see what happens.

Malasadas, anyone? The donut wo the hole?

Anywayz, as the 35yr mummified pension checker will attest to, statistics? Hmmmmmm. Gotta see how the data is collected.

In terms of unemployment, could the end of 1mm 99weekers benefits and zero prospects of jobs in NYC for these $100k/yr+ back office ppl have some effect of the decrease in U in NYC going forward? Flmaoz

And the perfect storm for NYC sellers iz brewing. Bleeding equity mkt (80% of significant negative shock in the next yr) and lots of lemming juice squeezed from NYC re, who gonna buy your $1mm studio this year? Don't forget the clawbacks from Fannie to the 4 largest banks. Wouldn't look too good to pay out huge bonuses with the clawbacks on liar mortgages looming, no? Since we own BofA, it's like robbing Paul to pay nambla (national men boy love association).

w 67: hilarious story. one more reason i wish we never had to bury my father. wish i had thought of it.

do think the fact that insiders are selling morgan stanley shares make the data?

Apt23, what's funnier is now they are visiting all of their 100+ yo pensioners. How embarrassing.

But on the point of clawbacks. It is so morally corrupt that we are letting geitner and BofA determine what % of fake loans BofA should take back? Illegal is illegal, why do you negotiate with criminals?

Thank you Washington. How many people do AIG and Citi employ?

w 67: totally agree. every day that his orangeness from countrywide is not in jail is an affront to anyone who writes a monthly mortgage check (or clicks a payment button). And his BofA pal who bought countrywide knowing those loans were toxic should be his slammer mate

My mother in law's apt which we rent for her is being foreclosed upon. BofA by way of countrywide, the LL is a house flipper with 7 homes in LA, one in Paris and one in NYC. Now I gotta find my mother in law another apt after I negotiated a sweetheart 3 year lease. WTF?

Apparently, countrywide's credit Dept consisted of 4 monkeys in a dark room with 50 approved stampers and lots of ink.

The LL declared bk to stay the foreclosure for another month.

> Apt23, what's funnier is now they are visiting all of their 100+ yo pensioners. How embarrassing.

hey, at least those death bodies help out their younger family members. I wouldn't be surprised if many Americans will follow through. It's not pleasant to have a death body in the house, so I bet the finances of those households aren't pretty.

'But friggin delicious. And more sustaining than a hole, anyway.'

Now that all depends...are we still talking about donuts?

you know w67...
Many people, in this day in age, talk about cremation as if it was fashion forward.
The plan I have for myself is taxidermy. Stuffed and positioned in a couch sitting position with a TV remote in my hands. In addition, I would leave a fund which would generate $$$ necessary for dusting weekly and a yearly maintained visit from the taxidermist.

They may never know I'm dead!

Falco... Might have to join ya... Save some space on the sofa for me and don't hog the remote.

Man, they are playing 'stayin alive'. You just can't help groovin to that.

NYC unemployment is at 9.4%, the 8.2% quoted in OP's article is for NYS.

Bob420. The borker who can't calculate 6%.

The OP's article is a joke! Besides misleading the readers into thinking that NYC unemployment is 8.2% instead of 9.4%. 'The expert' is from a staffing firm who is giving information that was true a couple of months ago. The tides have changed.

"bob, it's a good thing you posted this on a Friday in August when no one is around. Posting positive economic news will usually make you pretty unpopular around here."

unless, of course, you use a really, really questionable source. then you'll get all the support you need.

anybody here knows anybody unemployed living in Manhattan? if so, how are they holding on?

Cross-posted from "Rehiring" thread:

Change in Jobs by Sector,
July 2009 - July 2010

Sectors With Job Gains:
Leisure & Hospitality 27,400
Other Services 22,100
Educational & Health Services 20,400
Professional & Business Services 8,000
Natural Resources and Mining 100

Sectors With Job Losses:
Government -66,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -14,800
Construction -9,800
Manufacturing -8,600
Financial Activities -7,200
Information -3,500

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/index.shtm

New York City specific:
"Job growth occurred in educational and health services ( 19,900), leisure and hospitality ( 13,000), other services ( 10,300), and professional and business services ( 2,300). Job losses were greatest in natural resources, mining and construction (-5,300), manufacturing (-2,200), information (-2,100), and financial activities (-1,400). Government employment fell over the year by 49,100 as the number of people hired by the Summer Youth Employment Programs dropped significantly from last year's stimulus package inflated levels."

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/nyc/index.shtm

To "notadmin" question: Friend of mine got laid off from Goldman two years ago. Still not working, now living in Queens. Living off savings.

"anybody here knows anybody unemployed living in Manhattan? if so, how are they holding on?"

Brilliant, if maybe unintentional point. Manhattan has a higher percentage of renters than anywhere else, and the highest rental prices of anywhere, so unemployed people no doubt move out when their lease expires, creating the ILLUSION that unemployment is lower in Manhattan.

I am a broker? That's funny.

> NYC unemployment is at 9.4%, the 8.2% quoted in OP's article is for NYS.

Remember when 9% unemployment used to be bad news? Apparently now its thrilling.

Thrilling? Not really.

All depends on the direction. 10, 9, 8...8, 9, 10

No it's the fact you can't calculate 6% nor understand the significance of 5% unemployment with 6%GDP (real) versus 9% unemployment from 10% unemployment 3 yrs into the greatest depression in us history. It hurts to think of your imbecile little brain thinking happy thoughts about it. Flmaoz.

When did the dead Japanese guy stop stinking? I guess a year of stink is worth 35 years of pension?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575445131261936148.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Barclays let go 400 people today/last week. Unhappily that hit my family. My bank (not barcap) has been hiring like crazy all year. But this time of year hiring slows down as we work on budgets next year, and we have had a preference to hire consultants -- less commitment, and the industry wants to remain nimble if we teeter back over to recession.

I'm not as negative as I was Sept '07 on the economy but the outlook is far from a V recovery.

When I look around at my collegues in finance a good 90% are not doing as well as they were a few years ago. That's support folks, bankers and traders. And I know quite a few die-hard new yorkers who have left in the past 18 months due to local unemployment.

I know a bunch of analysts who expected to be kept on after their 2/3 year programs, but they've basically said those opportunities are gone. So a bunch more add to unemployment realistically (even if not technically).

w67thstreet
about 5 weeks ago
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The Japanese are touted for their longevity. When the oldest Japanese finally died, the state pension wanted to let the 2nd oldest living person know he was #1. They spoke with the 88 yo daughter several times to inquire about her father. It was later learned the father's mummified lay in his bed, having been in said bed for 35 years. Apparently the daughter just wanted to cash the pension checks.