Inventory 9000 is the new 11000

that will change drastically sunday evening

Urbandigs, you have me in suspense! What am I waiting for on Sunday?

i think the new site will finally be released..im scared to say anything, missed the launch from last NY mag article (Im a terrible project manager in setting expectations and understanding true scope of work for programming)..but we are down to final 10 items and they are not that big. I cant wait to get this done. It will be a soft launch, and we will add many features over the next 12 months

want to release any hints about inventory direction?

email me, my first name at urbandigs.com...Ill send you a sample of it from new site

"want to release any hints about inventory direction?"

If you guys have paid any attention to what Noah has posted in the past, you'll know it means the true inventory is around 500 less.
{And of course what is meant by "true" inventory is strictly cleaning up duplicates and clerical errors,forgeting shadow inventory for a moment}
Keep in mind also Noah's widget(current one) is purely off of Streeteasy's numbers. You can expect "new listings" figures to be substancially lower as I guess Noah will do a better job of cleaning up duplicates and relistings.

positivecarry
I'd bet at least 50% of those "new listings" are relisitings. Units pulled off the market between april and august. (Which by the way also skewed absorption numbers}

my new tools show: Active 7914

Outside of scrubbing, we have rules for what we count as ACTIVE. We do not count listings that are not updated by brokers and we do not count active listings more than 2 yrs on market..those rules also lead to lower levels for our systems. Keep in mind, our source data is rolex, the rebny sharing system, and broker updates for inventory. We exclude stuff that becomes stale yet remains set to active because broker fails to update and maintain a listing for 30 days, 60 days, 180 days, 365 days, etc..

UD, so you're missing all FSBOs and the brokers who do not belong to REBNY. Is that correct?

There are plenty of brokers who will put the listing up and not touch it for 90 days, so excluding the ones at 30 and 60 days actually brings the inventory down for no reason.

Ha, well I guess you've using more industrial strength scrubbers from 4/5 months ago as it's now 1000 less. :)

Are you able to navigate between the listings that are duplicates when a broker lists one as unit 9, and then later 9a? I would guess so as it means the older one won't be maintained by the broker. I think that's something for SE to attempt at a future date.

How are you tackling "new" listings if at all. Probably, substancially more than 50% are not truly new.
(this would be monumentally painstaking to do and would certainly need human eyes on it, I don't see how a software program could weed out that kind of stuff.

Noah, will you have this going backward. Your new number is 7914, great.

But we can't compare that to the old 11k or 9k, so we can't use it to compare past trends...

Found a reference point to Feb 2nd, 2010

Active inventory 8421
Noah's scrubbed inventory at that time 7833

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/17313-ud-inventory-below-8000-discuss

ab_11218 - You know, my biggest concern is that people wont fully get what I did to solve data integrity issues and the innovation in designing the system the way I did - minus the stale and other poisonous data. I totally disagree this brings numbers down for no reason, but you have every right to feel differently. I think you are making statements without the luxury of having this source data, seeing the problems with it, tweaking methodology to quantify effect of settings, understanding the rules of the REBNY listing maintenance, or the concept that missing FSBOs really doesn't alter the benefits of our new tools. If you saw what I saw, or what Jonathan Miller sees, or what SE tech team sees, I truly believe you would not say such things. Even brokers really dont get to dig at full source data like these other guys do. JM privately talks to me about these issues often. Lets go one by one.

1. FSBOs in Manhattan: According to NY Times, right now in all of Manhattan there are a total of, wait for it, 79 FSBOs! This total amounts to 0.0099823% of the total inventory in Manhattan with which we are counting. Please tell me how missing under 1% of the market for FSBOs who are not subject to listing rules (something our systems are based on) will seriously hamper our tracking plaform?

2. Missing non-REBNY brokers: Ok, non-rebny brokers in Manhattan who do not share listings with the industry are a) minimal and b) can do whatever they want with their listing information. This is a bit more than #1 above, and may mean our systems capture 90% of the Manhattan market, not 99%. But honestly, I dont even know how to quantify the total amount of good, useable data that we are missing for Manhattan brokers that don't belong to rebny. Again, to me, a non issue, but feel free to degrade what I built as missing the market because we have no way of counting these guys. Over time, I guess we can work to add direct feeds, as SE does, but we would have to continue to put our own quality controls in since these guys can give us what they choose to give us, sacrificing data integrity - which to me, was where we put all our efforts

3. Brokers not touching ACTIVE inventory over 30 days, and between 30-90 days: As you include more and more stale data, unupdated data that violates REBNY rules, you DILUTE the sensitive nature of the measurement to real time shifts in market for all the stuff that is being updated. May I ask how u know "There are plenty of brokers who will put the listing up and not touch it for 90 days"? I know this because I have all the data for it and our systems were built after 10 months of intense data integrity checks for all metrics. I can adjust the 30-day setting and see how it changes the numbers. I also assume you didnt know the REBNY rule that listings MUST be updated once every 14 days? After that, alerts go out and a lock out of the system goes out. Soon these data breaches will see harsher penalties, trust me. Im already working on it with powers that be to enhance data for everyone. You talk to any broker with experience with unupdated listings, and if the listing agent didnt update in 45 days, 60 days, or worse, 90 days, they simply ignore it and usually they have settings so they dont even show in internal searches for clients. You give brokers way too much credit. But, to quantify for you which I have the ability to do, hear you go:

ACTIVE w/ 30 day update rule - 7914
ACTIVE w/ 45 day update rule - 8040
ACTIVE w/ 60 day update rule - 8180
ACTIVE w/ 90 day update rule - 8310

So we scrub OUT 396 listings where the broker has NOT updated the listing set to ACTIVE between 30-90 days. Lets go way out and see how much crap is there

ACTIVE w/ 3YR update rule - 9,644

So we scrubbed out 1,730 listings in our current inventory metric, because the agent failed to update the listing. The point? If the agent simply UPDATES the listing, we count it again! if they didnt update in 30 days, chances are highly likely that unupdated listing will continue to go unupdated for the next 30 days, 60 days, 180 days, etc..This is also why inventory levels reported to you guys are closer to the 9,000 range than to our 7,914 range.

We chose the settings, and we went 2x + 2 days the REBNY mandated update rule. Now, if your opinion is that our system integrity is sacrificed because we do not count 396 listings that are stale, or 5% of the total we do count, well then so be it. If anything, our systems focus on the fresh stuff with what we feel is more than enough leeway over internal mandated update rules. And dont forget, if a listing set to ACTIVE goes unupdated for 75 days, then gets updated, we DO count it. But our research has shown that this stale data continues to go unupdated for long periods of time, as you can see from above numbers I provided. A very low % of stale listings, get updated again. But if they do, we count it again.

Just put a disclaimer stating "Not including FSBO and non-REBNY listings" and you'll be fine. You should also be applauded for taking on this Herculean task! Bravo!

Truthskr - unfortunately, do NOT look at any data I provided so far back. Our algos were fully finished and a full regen of all charts with all updated environment rules/settings were complete about early July or so. Since then, its been all front end design/talk/logo design/chart building/activity center/email/talka about chart/etc..u get the point. My eagerness and excitement to show off some of our stuff prior to early JULY 2010, should be totally ignored - the system was not finished and the absolute numbers changed with final settings and full regen of entire db.

As it is now, I see FEB, 2nd 2010 ACTIVE levels around the 7050 level. We are at 7914 now. Our inventory charts/tools go back to JAN 2008, we stopped there due to the New Dev problem I wrote about in detail on urbandigs

NEW LISTINGS question - great question. We have 2 things we count

NEW LISTINGS --> listings set to ACTIVE whose orig_list_date is set to today we count as NEW listings + listings with brand new ACTIVE update (yet old orig_list_date field) after a ACRIS confirmed closing
ACTIVE --> listings set to ACTIVE from a previously OFF MARKET state

So, yesterday for example we captured 117 ACTIVE listings, of which 36 were NEW listings. Hope this helps?

"ACTIVE --> listings set to ACTIVE from a previously OFF MARKET state"

Actually this should read:

ACTIVE --> listings set to ACTIVE from a previously OFF MARKET or CSGN state

UD, don't get me wrong, you're doing a very important job here by providing the data. What is missing is a small amount, less then 10%, of the data. As for the 30/60/90 days. We just went through the summer months and there were plenty of brokers, you and Ali have stated, who take the month of August off. When these brokers returned in September, they are overloaded with new listings and other stuff that they missed over that period of time.

As for missing FSBO and non-REBNY brokers, you can just state that in your analysis rathen then just ignoring it completely. You also have some REBNY brokers take the listing and don't put it in the system for a period of time, say 1 month, those are also not counted. For all you know, it could be 5%-10% at any point of time, spring having the most, and that's not a small number.

Just got a sneak peek at the site and the public charts and must say, very impressive. The charts give real perspective on the direction of the market and will probably quell quite a few arguments on SE. Didn't have access to charts that were broken down by neighborhood (for subscribers only) but imagine those would be an absolute necessity for anyone looking to buy. I large step above what SE has to offer --and no trolls!

Its all good discussion! Brokers can easily update a listing remotely and usually they do. In off months, we find brokers update listings once every 21 days or so, rather once every 10-14 days. Still, if they go 30 days without updating, and then update on day 39, we only miss the listing for those 9 days. Not a biggie.

The site is not up yet, so all these disclaimers will be clear and over first week all methodology will be uploaded for you guys to see how we measure things. As for brokers that dont enter data, nothing we can do about that..our biggest enemy is no record creation at all.

UD
Nothing wrong with your eagerness in Feb, it still provided a base and sign of things to come with the numbers. And it was greatly appreciated.
As the data for inventory was @ 1000 off in Feb and now, is that coincidence, or a base point to figure for the last 2 years at any point was always off around 1000?

New listings- Wow a 70% relist rate for yesterday. If this is near a consistent figure with a nice chunk of listings off market then on, it has to obliterate any chance of accurate absorption numbers currently out there.

we are delaying release of absorption and days on market for release..for now..we want to research methodology of both a bit more before final settings and generating charts. Lots of variables to acct for.

Absolutely, that's because it's the top of the totem pole, it relies on all the other data being accurate or at least more accurate first.
Days on market is going to be a total nightmare for you. That will have you dabbling in the realm of shadow inventory elements.
Monumental bro, you may want to (or have to) save that for 3.0. :)

What do these overall inventory numbers seem to imply about the market price direction?...are the rates of re-listings cited highly unusual? (what were relistings in normal market times, boom times, roughly)

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168399259Jmtnq&Record=12

total headache..not only that, but how do you count DOM? What if listing is ACTIVE for 6 months, off market for:

1. 2 weeks
2. 4 weeks
3. 2 months
4. 6 months

Goes back on market again at lower price, and sells in 6 weeks? When do you reset counter? So many variables. If its off for 1 weeks, back on and sells in 3 days, do you count that 1 week off? Do you count when price seemed to be way off? JM counts is as number of days on market from last price cut to contract signed date..Of course, DOM only measures PENDING SALES pool..the idea is you want to measure how long its taking signed deals to get signed in current market..

So your pending sales must be right too..All ties together. Complete headache.

I think we will have 2-3 versions of days on market and cumulative days marketed by the way when we release those

And Ive come across many buildings that had new files created for the same units (my earlier example with unit 9, unit 9a) the list goes on and on.

Offering the option to the viewer of the chart as your example;
1. 2 weeks
2. 4 weeks
3. 2 months
4. 6 months
may be the way to go.

ANd the viewer zooms in and out of the figures for their own perspective. Kind of like viewing a google map at different magnification, the further out (in time) the viewer sees the chart, the more accurate it is in total perpective but the less detail it will have.

By the way, I think everyone should know that this will NEVER BE 100% perfect! Its subject to missing records (shadow inventory truthskr refers to from time to time - especially for new devs..we exclude listings set to contract signed with no prior ACTIVE state, part of our flow algo)..

Also subject to brokers non updating (think of agents that have contract signed but never change status from active to CSGN) - we see this when ACRIS sale is recorded and listing db shows unit still as ACTIVE..luckily, this is not as bad as some people think, but still, something that can be made better with proper oversight and enforcement of penalties for data integrity breaches.

The data was so messy, that SE did a AWESOME job fixing it up for you guys to accurately see listing histories and status and associated sales. We feel we did a great job too, but it will NEVER be 100% perfect. The best we can do is on enforcement side and on backend side identifying serious data breaches. We feel we covered the latter for our analytics. You cant cover every single little item because sometimes a rule you put in place has adverse effects somewhere else. So every solution must be properly thought out in terms of risk/reward. Again, we feel we covered this.

I just want you guys to know the challenge that was faced here given the amount of data, and that I will never claim the system to be absolutely, positively 100% perfect - you shouldnt want me to, as that will be a dis-service. Even case shiller indexes have flaws that the builders of that system are aware of. The best we can do is make it as close to perfect as possible, which I must say, I think is a VAST improvement from what you guys are used to using now to measure the movement of inventory in the Manhattan markets!

Noah - don't let the nitpicking get to you (and it looks like it hasn't). What you've done is heroic. If someone doesn't like the methodology, they can go spend a year of their lives creating a tool that does it the way they want it.

On streeteasy- THough there are often visible errors and discrepencies in data, without SE's written in stone histories, it wouldn't be possible to ascertain these errors. And though sometimes Se's totals figures suffer in accuracy, the history files allow the individual to figure these errors out on their own, particularly when viewing specific buildings or units. A real godsend to a novice miner of data like myself.

And UD, it sounds like you'll be able to get us more accurate and proper totals of this information. This will be a godsend as well as too many people rely now on faulty newspaper reporting regradless of the paper's motivations or interests. Whether a paper is acting as a shill, or just honestly dissecting info wrong, it is most often quite faulty.

ha..I wish them luck! The new site will be work in progress for 3-4 months. We got great ideas for new tools. I cant wait, especially for the last biggie I want to get done, but that will take tons of data verifying and engineering.

Honestly sideline, my biggest concern is education on how the system is designed. I think I need to get a really good demo done that explains things in a very easy way. My second biggest concern will be in the interpretations of the tools. I wonder if brokers will know what they are looking at and what different metrics moving different ways means is going on..two challenges I hope to take on in the months after launch..you guys hear alot of our system design, but its coming in form of answers to your questions. What about all the people that dont see this thread?

We would love your ideas and feedback after release, but if you do subscribe, give it a good 5-7 days of playing first to get used to all features. For example, the talk system is linked to charts so you subscribers can customize charts submarkets and then start a discussion forum on the interpretation of the trends they find in say the pending vs active inventory in the 2-3bth, 2-5mln market in UWS

Urbandigs = new streeteasy with better scrubbed numbers!

-shrug- direction of nyc re is $500psf. This data scrubbing is just noise around a trend.

"-shrug- direction of nyc re is $500psf. This data scrubbing is just noise around a trend."

Sorry westie, that's just a really poor comment. Having good data is not the key to everything, but it's really helpful in getting a clearer sense of what actually is out there - dismissing it as noise sounds an awful lot like a vote for the antiquated, opaque system brokerage houses have been upholding for years in this city. And you wouldn't be caught dead in their corner, now would you?

I didnt want to say it..with that attitude, nothing would be improved upon.

Bjw/ud. Here is what se provided.
1) historical data prices;
2) aggregation of listings from all brokerages, basically we got out MLS system;
3) comp analysis;
4) market analysis by informed real estate diehards, or morons as I like to call myself, on individual units, bldgs, hoods. Etc.

Now ud, has decided to decrease the noise a bit. Anything over 30 days inactive is garbage. Why not 7 days? Why not 1.

Furthermore, there isn't a WOW factor like with SE, originally. It's like iPhone 3 to 3s. IMHO. Given there will always be crap data as imputed by crap borkers, im much more interested in the macro factors that determine nyc re prices. To me, the next 5 yrs will be
1) bursting bubble;
2) shadow inventory;
3) shrinking financial companies as % of GDP.
So IMHO, my call for $500psf is much more relevant than scrubbing data. Just my opinion.

w67th - been hearing this for years now..we had a bubble, we had an adjustment..from peak to trough, we saw mid-higher end products trade as low as 30-40% below peak levels..the window for these trades was small and the volume during this period was very small. Nobody would bid, hence the adjustment for those that had to sell or sold out of fear. If you think we will see a sharp move like we did post lehman, I think your in for a rude awakening. As far as the destruction --> the reflation --> the dip back we are in now from action earlier this year..I think the sharp moves are gone for a while. Yes we have negative macro forces, but we wont be coming from peak credit levels. We will be coming from lower levels. So I see a flat market with minor waves for years. Unless a new shock hits, and stocks fall 30% and at same time treasuries hold or worse, rise for whatever reason during that shock, then you may be right. Possible? Yea I guess..I just dont put myself in that camp at this time.

By the way, SE has excellent historical data prices, excellent aggregation of listings (the basic mls) and histories, excellent sync up of listings and sales, and excellent discussion forums. Im not crazy about their comp analysis tool for a selected unit. That is one area that will be a big part of our next product rollout.

Nice to hear your views UD.

Other than a macro shock -- which may or may nor happen -- what micro nyc factors would cause another significant downturn as opposed to just dampen the outlook?

ah...

the many faced one is back.

a few things on my radar for coming years..for our key to local economy, wall st and hedgies out there. Many funds are still below HWM and will prob shut down at some point. Layoffs there can add up. Vol has been quite low for a while now, thats not the best. Im worried about regulation on fixed income and a reversal of carry trade on fixed income employment considering where we came from. High yield is on fire and what happens when the party ends? I also have city/state budget issues in back of my mind, how it may affect quality of life..right now the city is very desirable as a place to live, and raise a family. More so than one would think considering the severity of the crisis we went through. This city never amazes me, but what if something changes due to budget issues, cutbacks, higher taxes, higher commodity inflation, cost of living, etc..I also think personal/business deleveraging will continue..how will what I mentioned above affect aggregate demand for the city's expensive goods and services? These are some concerns, but honestly, they have been there for years and so far I dont see anything crazy happening. Im a trader by heart, so I view the world as a trade. I cant be worried about something until there is a reason to be worried. When credit blew out in late 2007, I got worried. Right now, all I see are contrarian worries -- the fed engineered carry trade and limitless stimulative policies can not go on forever, what will end game see? Im not making bets on those concerns anymore, except gold. So they are in back of my mind. Things continue, until they dont. Hows that for simplicity.

want to predicate this statement by saying to Noah...I'm a big fan and I love your work.

Recently, I noticed an apartment for sale on PAN. The ask is just shy of 1.5MM. There was something about the address that looked familiar. I know the apartment and the seller (old friend). I remembered that in 1997 he bought the place for about 360K. Let's say that 1.5MM represents the max ask in January 2007. That's a 4 fold increase in 10 years. We all know what happened to price structure since 1997. The big question...With interest rates at 4.35% with nowhere to go but up, how will these properties hold there inflated value over time as interest rates rise? The ask is in Sept. 2010!!!
I don't see a booming economy on the horizon and many indicators point to (as you indicated) flat soda.
I will admit that time (so far) has not done the damage I expected but, it aint over yet. The crash of '87 did not revile the big deals of the day until '92,'93.
This and other factors give great credence to w67th call for $500/sqft.

Yo falco.

Great, a trader mentality selling you long loved leveraged assets. Every single thing he has pointed to is a negative for re, yet the fact that it hasn't deflated as much as one would expect given all the negatives is a reason to 'trade'. Psss. Pass. The bubble tool years to inflate. Took 3 yrs to admit. We r just starting the first full fall selling season with most parties accepting the bubble was in fact a reality.

Oh, banks are finally starting to get green light to push thru bad debts. This does not end well for nyc re.

'took'

lets be clear..im on record for being bearish, yet stated as 'significantly less bearish' considering all my very public statements starting NOV 2008 when the cliff dive off peak was 70% complete. The items I listed as answers to a question are why I am still bearish, yet less bearish (its all relative right..imagine Prechter saying Dow can only drop to 6000, a much more bullish stance than his current stance of Dow 1000) on Manhattan re. Im saying the sharp reaction of asset prices to a fear fueled blown out crisis, is done. My feeling is the market will stay slow and wavy with a downward trend for a few years..deals to be had here and there and in times of very slow volume that follows a period of declining volume from the peak of an upwave. Give some desperate sellers 4 months of declining traffic, and in month 5 they may hit a low ball. If that spreads across price points and submarkets, you got a general market trend. This city though is highly segmented so I dont listen to your rants. In general, I think the depth of this local markets buyer pool is quite different than other cities. And the legal structure of the city's inventory, saved it from much of the overlevered speculative investments that happened in the Miami's and Phoenix's of the country. But having many friends in the wall st world that truly believed in Armageddon and chaos and Dow 3000 and Gold 3000, no one can convince you of anything other than you believe. So $500/sft for everything Manhattan, including Madison/Park avenue 6s-7s, is truly near, as you say.

"This and other factors give great credence to w67th call for $500/sqft."

In what type of building in what part of Manhattan?
And when?

What is the comparison number TODAY for $500/sqft?

forget avg ppsf..use median..who can trust sft data for coops that are estimated by agent/sellers

median is also better in filtering out the outliers

Ud. Take it with a grain of tabasco. I'm a re vulture with an MBA from Dominica republica.

w67thstreet got fired from Dean Witter Reynolds and hasn't held a job since. In that time, he's been disowned by his father, got into lawsuits with tenants in a building he bought, didn't pay rent in an apartment he rented in, and didn't wear clothing around the house occupied by two children.

To make this concrete.....what ppsf is 67 saying he expects lovely lincoln tower to fall to. And what about rents?

I just took a dump.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22013-dont-you-get-the-feeling-that-this-fall-

UD, what fraction of the listings that go un-updated for 30 days end up being updated in, say, the next 90 days? If the answer is 75%, say, then you should count it as an inventory of 0.75, not 0 as you are doing. Have you considered doing such things? I know it's complicated to do it right (e.g., even the 10-day un-updated listing has some chance of being stale), but it can be done.

no we didnt get 'deep' into the active metric like that. I recall we tested that out like 7 months ago, so long ago, and it was a low %..not anywhere close to 75%. Otherwise we would have extended it. Most listings that go unupdated for 30 days, end up going unupdated for longer periods of time. As if the listing goes off mkt and broker doesnt other to change, or seller changes terms/hassles in some way and broker just forgets about it.

UD, can't wait to see your new website! Good luck!

Noah, I'll echoe the same thoughts as the others: amazing attempt at providing some realtime data. I look at your current page every morning. G-d Speed. But wait - HOLD ON! Are you kidding me? If I'm a broker, and my seller asks a high price and it isn't selling, why am I updating the listing? I've never seen a "it's been 30 days and it STILL hasn't sold" indicator on a listing. When it SELLS, then there is a reason to update it. Or when the "optimist" who was asking too much lowers the price, then there is a reason to update it. But you aren't gonna count properties that AREN'T selling in inventory? If I were you, and I had to choose between the two, I would ONLY count properties that aren't updated. If the property is "taken off the market," but its still listed, its STILL ON THE MARKET. When that person gets an offer, they are gonna take it. It just means they wanted to refi!!! Or wanted to wait until a better market. Properties don't go off the market, they either get sold , or they don't get sold. Come on. The buyer hasn't changed his mind about selling, he just realizes he isn't get his price right now. THe property is STILL ON THE MARKET. Why not devise a model that accurately generates a figure close to reality? Add in all of the listings that were taken off the market. Discount it by 25%. Add in all the shadow inventory. Discount that by an appropriate amount.

I think a really good model would be able to project the amount of demand that decreases over time at a given employment rate based on mortgage rates remaining unchanged. At a certain point buyers will stop trying to take advantage of the lower rate. As rates rise, that demand level should decelerate exponentially. Can't someone become the "Black-Scholes" of Real Estate and come up with this? I wish I could, but I'm not smart enough. I think you have it in you, Noah!

Hey dmag - let me try to address.

1. "If I'm a broker, and my seller asks a high price and it isn't selling, why am I updating the listing?" - No, we dont find this the case. Unupdated listings are more a function of individual broker behavior, less a function of circumstance. We see many listings with NO price cut that are on the market for almost 1 yr and then go to contract, and they have been updated regularly by the listing broker. Ill give one example here that went to contract yesterday from my caught CSGNs updates table:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/386037-house-137-west-87th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

587 days on market, no price cuts, and this broker regularly updated ACTIVE at least once every 6-14 days throughout this marketing period as is mandated by REBNY and internal broker systems. Again, when 14 days is up, alerts go out and system locks you out until you update status. Just one example yes, but trust me, I went through thousands and thousands of these over past 10 months.

Regardless of changing status, the brokers MUST regularly update listings. Even with rules in place, some agents dont and most of the time we found those unupdated listings to be no longer active, broker just failed to change status to off market.

Here is another:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/507624-condo-200-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york

This is actually IN CONTRACT as of yesterday..SE yet to catch it, as its listed as ACTIVE..This is another listing that saw a price cut in June, 180 days on market and broker updates regularly as they should throughout the marketing period.

The point is agents in all REBNY firms are taught and constantly reminded in sales meetings to regularly update listings. Some agents dont. We find its more a certain TYPE of agent, a lazy agent, or an agent that just doesnt care about rules (kind of the same as lazy, and yes there are bunch of these out there) that fail to regularly update a listing that is taking time to sell. While you may think that an older listing is not being updated as ACTIVE, in reality, most of them are. And if the broker fails to update in 30 days, and updates on the 40th day or 45th day or 60th day, we COUNT it again in inventory. When you see the source data over time and see the patterns, you find the best ways to calculate. We found that unupdated listings tend to stay unupdated and ultimately go to some kind of off market, off exclusive (listing expired) state. We count off market trends differently. When done correctly, the movement of listings should FIT, and we think our system now FITS. Our flow algo ensures that no one listing can occupy more than 1 state and any given point in time. So a listing can NOT be active and Off mkt or In contract at same time. This is the key - I bet many reports data, if parsed, would show listings occupying multiple states due to flaws we discovered in data. Even here you find them.

"Properties don't go off the market, they either get sold , or they don't get sold. Come on."

This is a big discussion ongoing between me and my chief programmer, an Akamai engineer. He is a data guy, its all he does, and your statement above is how he thinks - and he shoots down many of my ideas to fix flaws if it jeopardizes greater data integrity. He takes much pride in his work, one reason why we took so long to build this thing.

But your statement above relates to a debate we are having for calc DOM. If a listing is on market for 5 months, off market for 3 weeks, back on market for 2 months then goes to contract, what is DOM? My engineer would say, 'f*ck that, broker said its off market for 3 weeks, but in reality it wasn't - give me a break..we should count that 3 weeks status change to OFF MKT in our days on market numbers'

But the industry looks at it differently> Days on Market = Days the listing was ACTIVE, and marketed on mass venues, excluding periods when the listing is removed and set to off mkt. So we are delaying release of DOM, CDOM, and Absorption rates for now.

Your programmer is a real ball buster.

yep, but he's great at what he does.

UD - Great work you are doing here, and I eagerly anticipate the launch of your new analytics. Regarding days on the market, I like that you eventually will have different filters. I'm with your engineer on the intuitive sense of how long a property takes to be sold. So, to the extent that as a data miner I can see a true "days on the market" versus "days marketed" by X or Y firm (or total for X and Y firms) is meaningful.

I can appreciate the industry favoring the latter to measure relative success in moving inventory, and maintaning a sense of urgency. But on the buy side, knowing an apartment has gone through fits and starts to find the market gives one considerable negotiating power. Fact is, including that type of transparency will move us to being a much more efficient market.

UD - have you considered publishing the # of listings not updated > 30 days by broker or if you want to protect names do it by firm? It could be a powerful method at ensuring brokers update their listings.

let me be clear on this: We have strict guidelines to what we can and cant publish. NO raw inventory side listing data or individual listing information will be published on our analytics platform. Every tool we built will be in the form of charts, trends, submarkets, YoY broker updates bar charts, real time stat tables, etc..

Now, with that said, Im on a mission to improve the sharing process for all REBNY members. Im in active talks with multiple parties on the subject and I would call the current phase a 'research' phase with early ideas of modeling out a feasible and effective solution. I offered my help, my time, and and research that I can offer that I will pay for out of my own pocket, to identify the key problems and/or in designing alt measures to identify data integrity breaches. But no individual info or data will ever be published on UD.

Our ACRIS recorded sales will be published, but that is public record.

and thanks guys!! I hope you guys find great use out of these soon to be released tools. Ive been following them for 3 months now, confidently in the absolute numbers and trends, and its quite empowering.

Oh you mean I gotta pay that. :)

W67th, you have to pay $40/mth for it - shall I sign you up early? Send over your CC info!!

"NO raw inventory side listing data or individual listing information will be published on our analytics platform."

Fair enough. It is easy enough for me to follow listings of interest on SE with indifference to pre-sale status/broker changes. From a trending perspective your aggregation will be revealing if "days on the market" charts the flex range; how closely the marketing and the reality track each other.

yea, we have no interest in becoming a listing site or even having a vow service to find listing inventory. SE has that market. We will focus all efforts on tracking the markets

500/sqft....what? where?

Just for the giggles I thinking Manhattan below 96th street 1500sqft or less for properties that do not boast speciality ammenities, views or locations. (i.e. 15CPW is not going there)

This is mixed in with a healthy amount of wishful thinking as I am always in shopping mode when it comes to residential RE.

$700 is $500....to me

Meaning, given inflation and everything else, a sales market averaging psqft between coops and condos at $700 today would be like $500 per sqft in 1995.

Is it possible,,,sure, it depends on if the life boats can hold out longer than sharks.

S.S. Interest Rate- We all know it's effects, don't need to go into it, question is for how long can it stay, more important, how much is each percentage point up going to dig into a sales price.

Great White Rental Market- Somewhat of a comeback, but not on paper(not on paper means the month(s)free and no fee concessions were never represented on paper or "officially")As we are in the neighborhood of $50 per sq foot, this puts the sales market still way overpriced as a balanced price per sq ft would be around $900 per sq ft,3rd Q just came out at $1096! (which confounds me, I don't see how some 100/200 new development sales in FIDi at 800/900 per sq ft were offset by some 20/40 $1300 per sq ft new development sales in tribeca. When I have time later, I will disect the report more.)
I hope Miller/Samuels offers the same disclosures on computations the way Noah does.

Hammerhead Unemployment- No need for discussion here either, get it under 7/8%.... soon!

S.S.- NY/LI Postal Service- Huh, you say? Well I can't figure out how 6 people I know who haven't paid their mortgage ranging between 12 and 24 months have not received a single letter from their bank's legal department.
I now understand why there are no foreclosures in NY, the US postal department must be on strike....or could it be banks are cooking their books 'til it's safe to serve?

S.S.- Foreign Buyers- I have to say, I thought the rental market chased them all away (investors) but there are idiots still severely overpaying (particularly korean).

Elections- Have no idea how what where the effects. I do know in this arena, NYC is under siege. Middle Class income for NYC is treated with equal footing to Upper Class everywhere else. Wall street whether you love it or hate is feeds this city. It is in everyones bullseye, including our own senators.
If you want to understand how taxing the rich affects, ask a few retauranteurs from 1993 what happened to their traffic when dining tax deductions were capped at 50%.