Lock Limit Up on Cotton (new all time highs)

yaaaahOOOOOOoooOO

Inflate or Die.

Goldman Sach out with report late last week on QE2.

They are expecting 3 TRILLION dollars. Majoring of this money will end up in China.

Now, why don't you yahooooooo that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/bernanke-s-next-round-of-asset-purchases-risks-jimmy-carter-like-inflation.html

They're going to make the 70s feel like child's play.

Inflate away!!!!
print baby print!

"The goal is to unlock consumer spending and jump-start an economy that’s growing too slowly to push unemployment lower."

"They are expecting 3 TRILLION dollars. Majoring of this money will end up in China."

edit:

They are expecting 2 TRILLION dollars. Majoring of this money will end up in China.

Is that high or low

I like that inflate or die.
Bernanke has said that "you will not see deflation on my watch" In other words "I will flood the world with dollars until it's coming out of somewhereelse's as-hole".

"Is that high or low"

You truly are a fock'n moron.

So when does the inflation begin?

Milk @ $17/gallon
Gasoline @ $9/gallon
Weed @ $850/z

How will we live?

"I like that inflate or die.
Bernanke has said that "you will not see deflation on my watch" In other words "I will flood the world with dollars until it's coming out of somewhereelse's as-hole"."

A lot of folks simply don't understand what's going on out there.
Cotton prices are up over 300% in 15 months. Up 50% in the past 3 months.

"So when does the inflation begin?"
For you? Don't worry...sit still...hold all that cash in the bank.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

Damn boll weevils ... the wobble, but they don't fall down.

"they" wobble.

Thomas's Bagels went from 3.99 to 4.19. They were 3.99 for years I tell you! years! That's 5% for cryin out loud.

Does cotton have to do with NYC real estate? Am I missing something. No one has any money. Can we eat cotton?

falco,
you'll live b/c your salary will go up as well.

and so will your condo....

"Does cotton have to do with NYC real estate? Am I missing something. No one has any money. Can we eat cotton?"

No one has any money????
lol

Oh boy, the media did a job on you folks.

On a serious note. I'm sure the administration will seek to blame commodity speculators for driving up cotton, but has it dawned on anyone that the market realizes the Fed is bent on destroying the purchasing power of their dollars and seeking to hedge that exposure via commodities. The Fed through the power of the printing press is intent on creating new bubbles.

Dr. Copper almost back to all time highs.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

I would be a nervous real estate bear if the most economic sensitive metal is going to new highs.

bronxboy
Absolutely nothing. In fact it means even less cotton products will be produced in america and even more (if that's even possible) in China as Chinese factories are (as always) focused on keeping employees working and profit margin comes last.

Things to really look out for for inflation on everyday products
a)cost of shipping, which has risen 20/25% over the last year. That's 20/25% of the shipping cost not increase to goods cost 20/25%
b)valuation of the Yuan to the US dollar correction. In real life it's probably off by 35%. But yo'll never see a correction like that. 7% tops.

Still, all this has nothing to do with real estate

"Fed is bent on destroying the purchasing power of their dollars'

Bingo!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/29/CottonComestoHarlem.jpg

"Still, all this has nothing to do with real estate"

Think of all those poor souls that listen to your dumb ass the last 15 months.
Ouch!

I would say you would have been FAR better off buying in March of 2009 then holding those junk paper in the bank collecting 1% yield. Only a true moron will make a statement like this.

BronxBoy,
Does this have anything to do with housing? Why have the stock market closing in on new highs again off the March lows? Listen to enough of these retarded bears on this site and you'll go broke by the time you realize it's time to buy.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=w1

But as an agricultural commodity, this year's shortage could turn into a surplus one or two years in the future.

With everyone's money diverted to pay much higher prices for cotton and copper, people will have much much less in their pockets each week for rent or mortgage payments or apartments in districts of overbuilt underserviced condo eyesores between Astoria and Greenpoint.

NY real estate prices will come tumbling down. Sell now or be locked in forever. Or there's always arson, of course.

"NY real estate prices will come tumbling down. Sell now or be locked in forever. Or there's always arson, of course."

hahaha....
Wohooo!!! Housing is going to crash!!!

hahahaha...

By 50%

too hot: http://www.wtvy.com/home/headlines/102383444.html

too cold: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-25/cotton-extends-rally-to-record-as-cold-in-china-threatens-crops.html

so because there is inflation, that means my salary is going up as well ??? phew...didnt know thats how it worked.

O, I wish I was in the land of cotton
Old times there are not forgotten
Look away! Look away! Look away! Real Estate.
In LIC where I was born in
Early on one toxic mornin'
Look away! Look away! Look away! Real Estate.

O, I wish I was in Real Estate! Hooray! Hooray!
In Real Estate I'll take my stand
To live and die in Copper
Away, away, away up high in Copper

"so because there is inflation, that means my salary is going up as well ??? phew...didnt know thats how it worked."

Material prices are suggesting there's good growth dead ahead. Why would manufacturer's chase materials like this??? Because they need to FILL demand.

Most of you need to take some Finance classes and stop reading these bear post on StreetEasy.

alan, HELLOOOOOOO!!!!

http://ezinearticles.com/?Real-Estate-Verses-Stock,-Part-4---Inflation-Hedge&id=1836365

Real estate investment, as a durable good, will increase in value as inflation increases its replacement cost. In many ways the bottom of the real estate correction is the cost of new home construction......

replacement cost...mmmmmm....copper....uh oh.

There are only 3 types of bears on this site.

1) Those that don't have money and want prices to crash so they can get in with no money.
2) Those that 'try' to talk NYC REIT down so they can cash in (most bears on this site have bought over the past year).
3) Those that missed the bottom and not very happy. Example..Stevejhx, W64th, Alan, Truthskr, Somewhereelse, etc.

Stock market highs? What does any of that have to do with the real world?

"Thomas's Bagels went from 3.99 to 4.19. They were 3.99 for years I tell you! years! That's 5% for cryin out loud."

Thomas is likely making more than $250K a year and may have to provide more expensive health insurance for his employees next year. A premptive strike no doubt.
But when the chinese actually learn to make a proper bagel, they will be on every corner too, for 2.99.
Look what they've done to NY sushi and mexican food. :)

"Stock market highs? What does any of that have to do with the real world?"

Absolutely nothing.
Why are you here?
What does housing prices got to do with you? Why does it matter if prices go up or down? Seriously...

For the record, 30% of my assets are in real estate, commercial albeit. And could make so much more money on it if the market would indeed turn. It's just not happening and not anytime soon.

I'll use my 40% liquid cash when we actually hit a bottom or I fall in love with a place in a budget I allocate. We are in year 2 of a 5 year thing. THere is no rush.

"Stock market highs? What does any of that have to do with the real world?"

"Absolutely nothing."

Thanks for answering my question, ericho. And thanks for creating an irrelevant thread.

The problem with inflation is that you just don't know where it will show up. You just can't predict it. Impossible to do that.

So far it has appeared in food. Prices for commodities are on their way up (Sugar is up big, paper is up big) especially if they are in great demand in growing economies. We, in this country, are less likely to see it in real estate than in products with which we share consumption with others.

It is like over-inflating anything, tire, balloon, anything. As the pressure builds something has to give. It will be the weakest spot that gives, but you don't get to know where that is until it happens. And when it happens it will seem obvious (in retrospect).

This inflation game is a very dangerous game.

Inflation is basically a tax on the working class whose incomes never catch up. In the 1970's cost of living increases were negotiated into union contracts but even that was insufficient. Same things goes for retirees and savers.

Unlike a tax increase, when the gov't pays for its debt by debasing the currency the action is never approved or voted on. It's very sneaky. What makes it worse is that the academics and politicians have convinced a significant percentage of the population that inflation is good for them using the argument that deflation is bad, so inflation must be good.

"I remember in 1970 when we bought our home for 26k, remember hon?" "Sure I remember dear" "But you were also making $170 a week dear."

http://www.1970sflashback.com/1970/economy.asp

Data out is as good as data in.

2 things I haven't understood though,one my '97 Harley Fatboy cost $18,300 with tax in 1997.Today it costs about the same for a 2010. They're made in USA? right?

7 series BMWs have had Base stickers at $89K for around ten years. Even if you throw out euro-dollar exchange rate differences over the last ten years, it is so much "more car" now.

Deflation is bad. But you have to be careful what you are inflating/deflating. So there is no way to "reflate" the housing market. If your inflating actions lead to greater inflation in commodities (energy, food, clothing, and basically everything else we buy from china) it will do a lot of harm to the economy before it gets to the point it has brought real estate to a level at which it can trade. If you allow deflation, what is deflating? If it is housing, well that is already a mess that isn't just dependent on pricing now to clear (foreclosure mess).

Mess too much with the economy and you are bound to have problems. These are complex systems, and to think we know how to fine tune them is a joke.

"7 series BMWs have had Base stickers at $89K for around ten years. Even if you throw out euro-dollar exchange rate differences over the last ten years, it is so much "more car" now."

Smaller margins and bigger volume.
You assume business models stayed constant since the 90s. Thank god you spent your days lurking on these forums and not running a car company.

Did you really say, make it up in volume?

thank god! my wife doesn't need any more jeans.. and what the fk are these "jeggings" .... oh! btw, 3 pair of jeggings at old navy (they always carry a 0 for the wife) $30. $30 fking dollars! I've had lattes more expensive than that.....

Oh ericho you were saying something about cotton? Oddly enough q-tip prices have gone up.. .thank goodness I only clean my earwax every other month. If it gets to $1 a pop I'll have to use my fking finger and some water.

"I only clean my earwax every other month"

So you bum at your parent's place with your wife and you don't even replenish the god damn qtips!
Why don't you move to south Jersey if living in NYC is so hard on you. Wait....you don't even own a place in Manhattan. How can you call that living!!

muhahahahahahahaha!

shit ericho, youre long everything that's gone up...it's uncanny

CC,
Go check number of BMWs sold in 1997-1999 and profit margins. Compare that today and BINGO!
On a separate note, are you going to be in this shit list forever? I can barely read what you wrote.

Wbottom,
Are you ever going to change your name? You called for a W bottom 2 years ago and we never got it.
Is there a bigger shame then having to live with a handle that's down right wrong? Jezzz...

Do this.
Take a piece of paper and write the following words....'I AM AN IDIOT, KICK MY ASS AS HARD AS YOU WANT.'.
Take that piece of paper and stick it in your back. Enjoy your day.

Double bottom my ass.

"shit ericho, youre long everything that's gone up...it's uncanny"

Been in Sugar too.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB&p=w1

Should crack into new highs any day.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1288159560.php

s is often the case, there is a big difference between what the government statistics are reporting and what’s going on in the real world. According to the most recent inflation reading published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices grew at an annual rate of just 1.1% in August.

The government has an incentive to distort CPI numbers, for reasons such as keeping the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security payments low. While there’s no question that you may be able to get a good deal on a new car or a flat-screen TV today, how often are you really buying these things? When you look at the real costs of everyday life, prices have risen sharply over the last year. For simplicity’s sake, consider the cash market prices on some basic commodities.

On average, our basic food costs have increased by an incredible 48% over the last year (measured by wheat, corn, oats, and canola prices). From the price at the pump to heating your stove, energy costs are up 23% on average (heating oil, gasoline, natural gas). A little protein at dinner is now 39% higher (beef and pork), and your morning cup of coffee with a little sugar has risen by 36% since last October.

You probably aren’t buying new linens or shopping for copper piping at the hardware store every day, but I included these items to show the inflationary pressures on some other basic materials that will likely affect consumer prices down the road.

The jump in gold and silver prices illustrates that it’s not just supply and demand issues driving the precious metals higher – the decline in purchasing power of the dollar is also showing up in the price of physical goods. It is because stashing wheat and cotton in the garage is an impractical way to protect purchasing power that investors are increasingly looking to protect themselves with the monetary metals – a trend that is now very much in motion.

"Smaller margins and bigger volume."
Err wrong, 7 series specific, they probably lose money on it and is subsidized by the 20 new lower models that came out over the last 10 years.

"You assume business models stayed constant since the 90s. Thank god you spent your days lurking on these forums and not running a car company"
Yes indeed, I prefer to make money as an owner and not provide a platform for a socialist network (auto union) to make all the money.
And the thing is, many traders and some of my friends are just like you. THe ones that talk big in the front room and ask me for a loan in the back room.
So why you don't take your Daffy Duck routine to a finance forum. You could provide your non useful information there and at least you'll be in the right category.

'THe ones that talk big in the front room and ask me for a loan in the back room. ' bingo. Flmaoz.

It's the 25yo douche that got the loudest yellow Lamborghini, living at home with his parents thumbing his nose at a 30yo driving a prius with 2kids in private school, a boat, a summer home and helping his/her parent out. You are that Douche, ericho69.

Excelsior!

"subsidized by the 20 new lower models that came out over the last 10 years."

You just answered your own question retard. Lower margin more volume.

"And the thing is, many traders and some of my friends are just like you. "

Talk big?
LOL. Not once did i ever mention how much i made on any trade.
If you want someone that consistently talks big but NEVER makes the right call, it's your buddy W67th.

this is the markets driving commodities higher in response to fed engineering and a search for yield...but is commodity inflation, inflation? The way I look at, you need to see credit expansion + wage inflation for inflation to be a concern. What we have here are the unintended consequences of fed policy, that will cause this form of inflation and squeeze consumers wallets and hurt corporate margins...prob will get way worse before it gets better

ericho and stevef think everythings great..unless employment gets alot better you will see commodities deflate as the next step.

"Should crack into new highs any day"

... find the key words in that sentence.

>but is commodity inflation, inflation? The way I look at, you need to see credit expansion + wage inflation for inflation to be a concern.<

good question Noah but won't all the commodity inflation lead to wage inflation. It's just more money chasing the same amount of goods. The tide lifts all boats. If the farmers are making more money producing cotton bales with the same amount of labor they can then spend more and so on.....

If company A generates more revenue they want to expand so they start paying higher salaries to attract better quality workers. Workers see this and so they jump ship for company A. Company B sees this and has to raise wages to keep talent and so on and so on....

You left out the part about the millions and millions of unemployed workers.

Urban, Perhaps you should consider a second theory. While I agree that quantiative easing is a likely cause of the spike in commodity and stock prices there is a second possibility here....
Virtually every country is basically depreciating it's currency. And the buoy or refence point is the basket of commodities(i.e. the store of value)

steveF...why does company A have to pay more if they can find 500 replacements willing to work for the same or less ?

delusional bulls grasping at straws. these markets arent goin anywhere for a while...

"delusional bulls grasping at straws. these markets arent goin anywhere for a while..."

ARE YOU FOCK'N KIDDING ME?????
How bout another 10% move higher since you made this post.
Check out EVERY commodities since you made this post including the stock market.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CT&p=w1

w67thstreet,

How's sugar treating you?

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB&p=w1

NEW HIGHS!!!

Boooooyah!

Surgar? Well lets just say the American sugar producers and it's subsidies over the last 100 years have been one of the most regressive trade stance US has and continues to have. I for one, welcome higher food commodity prices. You can wrap all the sugar, cotton, food stuffs price increase against one of our largest exports, beef. Net net net, my inflation zip zilch nada. Did you hear, I picked up a $500k 50ft racing boat for pennies on the dollar. That's deflationary.

Btw my food budget, 1% of my family income.

"Did you hear, I picked up a $500k 50ft racing boat for pennies on the dollar."

lol

does it float?

I don't know but I got another FDIC bank to lend me $150k on it..... Pssss. Pssssss Pssssss. Don't tell them that the Florida bank sold it to me for way way way way less than that. Is that called a cash out refi? And to think since I am a renter and the boat has a living room, toilet and bed it's tax deductible. Omfg!

Boat loans 4%, 20 yr amort , 10 yr fixed, prime plus 2.

More signs that increased prices of commodities are sipping into the economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Clothing-prices-to-rise-10-apf-3665134256.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

"Clothing prices to rise 10 pct starting in spring"

"marco_m
about 3 months ago
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ericho and stevef think everythings great..unless employment gets alot better you will see commodities deflate as the next step."

Employment really haven't gotten any better, but commodities continue to INFLATE!
Goes to show what you know.

What happens if everyone buys 11% less clothing?

CC,
Read this thread.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11503-consumer-confidence-soars

"ericho75
about 20 months ago
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Inflation/hyperinflation is not the direct cause of 'wage' increase. It never was and will never be.
It's simply the velocity of money creation gone haywire."

So you figure everything is great?

careful about generalizing commodities - oil has certainly not been performing in the same manner as others....

Just don't you go speculating in onions, that's all.

brent crude oil is over 100. the disparity between wti and brent is at an all time high. so yes, oil is high.

USO certainly is a laggard, in that case....

>What happens if everyone buys 11% less clothing?

That's an excellent suggestion.