The 505

wow... you sure? i reserved a unit on the first day. but didn't think it would sell out this quickly. seems pretty unbelievable...

Pretty sure, date recorded here :) Which did you reserve?

Eh um...beware of the confidentiality provision before releasing information as to your unit!

Article on the505!

http://www.nycondoblog.com/

Permalink for the above:

http://www.nycondoblog.com/?p=589

And other news:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/03/real_estate/manhattan_prices_up/index.htm?postversion=2008010307

thought this might be of interest to buyers/prospective buyers, considering this will be just a block away:

Global Ad Agency Moving to Far West of Manhattan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/realestate/commercial/09ogilvy.html?ref=ny

Ogilvy & Mather, the international advertising and public relations agency, said Tuesday that it would move its headquarters to 636 11th Avenue, at 47th Street, becoming one of the first corporate tenants to embrace that stretch of the Far West Side of Manhattan

Yes. There seems to be alot of development projects in Hell's Kitchen. Does anyone know when the Vu Hotel will open? I know it's been scheduled for sometime this Spring. And any updates on the Hudson Yards project?

Airahcaz... I reserved a 1 unit on the 4th floor facing the garden. How about you?

Good move, (you'll be surprised how much you'll appreciate the quiet)

2/2 facing garden - so excited, I hope we go up at least 10% before closing, inline with $1100 / sq ft, which is not unfathomable, especially as GS is predicting as much as 1.75 in fed cuts, I'll be happy with two 50 basis cuts, thus reducing a full point!

The craziest part is that this is the best city in the world, with several different markets in one

the lower echelon of sub 1 MM, the middle up to 10 MM, and then uber-luxo at 10+. The city thus creates its own market, and so I have absolutely no issue buying at the lowest echelon, such limited downside, ALL upside, and brand new.

This is going to be nice neighborhood...parking is nasty around this here for some reason.

re: "GS is predicting as much as 1.75 in fed cuts, I'll be happy with two 50 basis cuts, thus reducing a full point!"

The fed funds rate does not control the mortgage rate, the market does.

"Keep in mind, however, that while the Fed determines the fate of short-term interest rates, they do not directly call the shots on long-term interest rates (what you might pay on a 30-year fixed loan). Instead, long-term rates are determined by investors who buy and sell bonds in the bond market, which changes daily. The Fed funds rate is an indirect factor in the big picture of determining long-term rates, but not as large a part as many people think. "
(http://www.quickenloans.com/mortgage-news/article/702.html)

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01172008/realestate/next_west_thing_393363.htm?page=0

Fed funds reduction indirectly affects 30 yr fixed mortgages, and directly affects ARMs; regardless, it will have an impact, especially if eventually we are a full point or more below where we are now.

Additionally, I'll take the fed cut over the paltry returns of a savings account or CD anytime.

I became aware of a few new things. Yes, you do hear the Amtrak trains.(every hour) Metro-North will soon be using these tracks which means more noise. The Salvation Army on this block attracts homless which linger on the streets. There is noise from the autobody shop, sometimes even in the early AM. The builders main experience is watch stores and sunglass huts, this is essentially their guinea pig project. It is in question at these prices if they will be utilizing the technology available for soundproofing and vibrationproofing from the trains. I heard many many of the buyers bought to rent the units. This means a higher renter occupancy vs owner occupied units = undesireable. They still haven't been approved for the tax abatement.Both 47th&48th streets are not very esthetically pleasing on this block and there is little or no room for additional upscale housing. Buyers may be surprised with the end product as were many buyers at a nearby development.As the old addage says, "you get what you pay for." I'd be wary if it sounds like too much of a great deal.Hell's Kitchen as a whole has great potential for growth. Although for the 505 block their are many factors against them.

Tax abatement is always pending for new developments, especially if they just began construction.
There are more buildings going up on the 11th ave and 10th so the neighborhood is up and coming.
The only downside is the Amtrak train and few lowlife lingering around the neighborhood.

I must agree on your point on the end result. They always skimp on something at the end when its complete. Cheap floors, and general finish of the apt

I had heard about the train right of way, so I went by to look. The train runs right under the building and it's not even very deep. This thing is going to shake when the trains roll by, no way around it.

I don't think the building would shake as even 100yr old buildings have mild shake during train arrival.
The developers are planning so that it's not disturbed. The only downside is the noise...some may find that pleasing to their ears (I live few blocks from it and my wife loves the sound)

Hi, raystuart: In response to your comment... I think buyers in this building KNOW what they are buying into. There aren't any condos being built these days at $1,000/sqft these days. So discount comes from the finishes (medium level, slightly better than the building across from it) and the location. As for the location, I believe in HK area. It's hard to see things in perspective but Manhattan continues to get squeezed out. In 10 years, salvation army, parking lots, car washes will no longer be there! You really have to use your imagination and your investment "senses" to gauge outlook on an area.

The timing of this building is perfect. Interest rates will be low by the time this building is completed. Lock in the rates and sit on it for 10 years. No brainer. BUT DON'T EXPECT real estate to be ST gains. It isn't anymore...

Forgot to comment on the train noise. Many buildings were built on train tracks. If you are above 3rd floor, you will be OK. If you are considering lower floors, perhaps ask for a discount. I am not sure how flexible they will be though. These units were so at an overwhelmingly fast rate. Even I was shocked at the interest level.

When I was at the sales office earlier this month, they told me they were going to be sold out by the end of January. The Salvation Army owns their building, they will be there in 10 years.

If they really want to close their showroom by February, maybe they will have a firesale on the remaining available apartments.

A broker told me that I should not buy at the 505 right now. He didn't tell me the reasoning, but he is a top seller at Corcoran. I would believe his advice.

A homeless man told me that I should buy at the 505 right now. He didn't tell me his reasoning, which is the only thing that matters, but he is one of midtown's top crack smokers. I would believe his "advice", which is not really advice at all.

The Cocoran broker is the top broker there because he is able to lure you away from the "cheap" buildings like the 505 and recommend you higher priced units elsewhere. He is top there because he knows if he sells the 505 he will have to split the commission quite a bit w/ Nestseekers/Halstead. He is top because he knows the 505 is already over 80% sold out - leaving you w/ not much choice, i.e. harder to sell a unit at the 505 to you...

haha listen to brokers...that is funny.....bet hes got a great deal in a corcoran new building!!!

No, he's not trying to sell me an apartment. We just met at a friend's cocktail party and we were just talking about different buildings. He deals with properties upward of a million dollars , so he knows I wouldn't be a client of his. Sorry to hit a nerve with some of you with cynical views.

Anyone see the development lately? I saw it today, looks like the platform is well on its way of being completed. Good sign. Has anyone gotten any updates?

http://www.observer.com/2008/durst-build-private-school-11th-avenue

Just bought a garden unit 2 bed 2 bath w home office and two terraces! We are really excited and stopped by to see the platform yesterday. It looks like they have covered the train track and will now begin the building process. We were told they were encapsulating the track , then there would be a layer of sound proof stuff then the cellar would be built and then the first floor. So I am thinking this will be elevated quite a bit from street level. Any knowledge of this from anyone??

So you bought one of the remaning penthouses eh?

No we bought a garden apt with a large terrace on the back and a small one on the front.

to rent for investments?

No to live in.

Did you buy here to rent for investments?

well, congrats, just wasn't sure how you would live in 2 of them :)

I think there was a misunderstanding. One apartment with two terraces. One terrace on the front facing 48th street and the large one facing the courtyard. Sorry if that was confusing:) After looking for weeks this was def the best deal for the money around. We had also looked across the street at 517 and the construction was awful. They said there the train is not an issue snd I feel like the 505 will be better built than that building so I am not worried.

Aha, nice! So 1 of the 11 or so remaining 1 bedrooms, what floor, N or S building? I also looked at neighboring developments, 517, 516, all shoddy. I'm also excited, but we're at least a year off from closing.

No we got 1DN 2 bed 2 bath w ho. Ist floor 1075 inside 291 ext. I like we are a year or more from closing. It will be fun to watch the building go up. Which building are you in?

Congrats buddyparker! That is a great investment. Love the terraces! I checked w/ Nestseekers. Copmletion date is Mar of next year - so yes w/ delays +1 years...

Not sure if they have been granted tax abatement. Anyone hear about that? Thanks!

I think the abatement isnt granted until closing. That is what my broker told me, however it is very probable it will be granted. Did you buy here as well?

yes. bot 1bdr facing garden on the 1st day... didn't know it was going to be this popular though! i've gotten price amendments and v. happy w/ them. hoping interest rates will stabilize at low point when we close.

I am hoping that as well. It takes a bit of time for the mortgage rates to reflect the cuts the feds make. So hopefully (fingers crossed) they will be perfect when we close. Congrats on your investment. I am really excited!

What price amendments, and from whom? :)

Wednesday April 2nd open house with their final releases

Any news? Why the trouble selling the remainder units? How is progress?

I dont think they are having trouble selling the rest of the units. My broker just told me they sold 3 more of the one bedrooms and that there are only 10 left now and all inventory was just released last week before the condo expo. This building has sold extremely well from what I can tell compared to other real estate, especially considering what is going on with the market. I feel this is because they were priced aggressively from the beginning. The progress of the building is looking well. Looks as though the encapsulation of the platform is complete and they are starting to pour the concrete columns. Happened to stop by the other day and the Lev developing people were there to see how it felt when the train went under. They said they didnt hear or feel a thing and they were more surprised about that than they had thought. It was good to see them genuinely surprised and happy about this, because this is what I was the most concerned about. Hope this helps.

good news! thanks for the update buddyparke!

I heard they accepted offers below asking price. Does anyone know about this?

I pass by this building everyday. You can definitely FEEL and HEAR the train pass by. In fact, 47th street shakes my car when the train moves.

516 W46th was built the same way with encapsulation with cellar under. Check with the tenants on those bulidings when you are in the area.
If you are on the 1st & 2nd floors, you'll definitely feel the shake and hear a LOUD noise (you can hear it even 3 blocks away). 3rd and up will only deal with loud noises (don't know why the trains honk in this area) few times a day. When I say loud, I mean ear popping loud.

We actually did check with the tenants across the street when we looked at the building. They said no rumbling, but sometimes a whooshing sound but it didnt bother them (first floor). It is a different company that did the sound proofing for the 505 than the 516 across the street. We were there when the train went by and the street did not shake. Are you sure you arent exaggerating a little? Didnt hear about accepting offers below asking, however in the light of what is happening in the market it wouldnt surprise me. I also talked to a construction worker on site who has no attachment to the outcome on the project and he said that he has never worked on a project where there was so much time and energy going in to making sure the sound proofing is right. I hope this is the case, but maybe you can hear something I cant.

ba294. i, too, did LOTS and LOTS of research into the noise factor before i bot this place. noone will buy if your case is true. 516 tenants all said minimal even 1st floor.

nobody in manhattan is "stupid" enough to spend $600k-$1.5mn into a project without ensuring a fair deal.

I live nearby, and I think the description of the "whooshing" sound is accurate. But my gut still tells me that, as someone just observed, the units may have been priced aggressively from the start. Along those lines, I think this is an example of (pardon the cliche) "you get what you pay for." As somebody who lives in the neighborhood, I just feel compelled to repeat my comments from several months ago (see first page).

I know the area and I urge you to keep in mind that it is still a little rough, and I think the 10th-to-12th avenue corridor is kind of bleak. I have every expectation that it'll --> eventually <-- get better, but I don't know how long that'll take. Also keep in mind that the area has a lot of auto body shops, car dealerships and old service stations. One of the reasons it has been slow to get cleaned up is that there are a lot of environmental issues with taking over those sites and putting up new construction (old underground oil storage tanks, etc.). It's not a coincidence that the new development is going on over the railroad tracks, and not just a few feet over on solid ground where old businesses used to be. I think it'll take a while before the area becomes desirable enough to overcome the environmental costs. Compare that to the 8th to 10th avenue corridors, which have always been primarily residential.

That all is just to say that (sorry, another cliche) "what you see is what you get." I think things will continue to get better around the perimeter (especially the far perimeter) of the 48th/10th-11th-Ave area, but that for quite a while, side streets like where the 505 is are going to stay dumpy. Maybe people are cool with that for the sake of getting a foothold in a Midtown area, and I can sort of understand that. But I think people really need to be prepared to cope with the neighborhood staying possibly just as it is for a long time. Meanwhile, the areas east of 10th Ave. I think will just keep getting nicer and nicer, and I think in 5 years 8th Ave. in HK will feel a lot like 6th Ave in Chelsea does now. But with the environmental issues, I think the rate of change west of 10th Ave (aside from 42nd St proper) will be glacial. That's just my humble opinion, and of course I have no crystal ball.

If you really want to feel and hear the train noise, stand on 47th street at 8AM in the morning. It's not a small whooshing sound but rather ear popping noise. You'll notice 516 fence shake as the train passes by. I am not discouraging anybody but just fair warning for those looking at the 1st and 2nd floors. Also noise factor is for everyone in the building and any within few blocks of 46th. I live few blocks from it and I wake up to the train noise every 8AM

Anotherguy, you nailed it.
The neighborhood is still developing. If you park your car on the street, you may have a broken glass or missing car the next morning. Few bumbs/crackheads on the street between 10&11th. I defintely think the area is getting better since 505, luxury hotel on 47th&11th, and new development on the 46-47th on 11th is coming soon.

Just out of curiousity, how does a bldg like this comapare to the Bromoton on 85th street in terms of finishes, quality of materials, etc?

You folks are not comparing apples to apples. This building was prices at give or take $1000 a square foot. If it were a quiet NYC block, didn’t have the occasional bum, transient, or odd person wandering around, and was on a great street in midtown, then we'll easily be several hundred dollars a square foot more, right?

I am not sure what you are all debating here. Surely it is worth $1000 a square foot for new construction and tax abatement?? Anything else for us buyers is gravy. Point blank, this is midtown Manhattan. As for the train, are we talking the 'possibility' of hearing it once a morning? I could live forever with that, thanks.

Since we have had such a mild winter, construction is ahead of schedule. There is a possibility occupancy could begin at the end of the year.

Kara: Where are you getting this information from?

Kara is this true?? Please let us know where you got this info:)

Shapeshifter,
Bromptom is a very nice building. But investment wise, I'd go with 505. The area is little shady as of today but there are many great developments around the corner and there is going to be 7 train running to 42nd and 11th in few years. I wouldn't jump on the 1st floor units.

In fact good sources state that the first Closing may be delayed till Summer, so I am not sure what basis there is in someone stating earlier Closings.

I find that hard to believe as well. Just stopped by and the first floor isnt even done. I would definitely say summer for sure. Especially with new construction.

You folks also notice that the remaining PH's have gone up in asking price, to $1,575,000?

I actually think that is a mistake on Streeteasy. This penthouse started at 1,450,000 in the offering plan and was never listed as available until recently. Streeteasy confused it with one of the other ones at 975 sq feet. This is 1133 plus 700 upstairs their biggest one. It has a home office as well.

supposedly 7 units left:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/13/realestate/13post.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin

Went by the building today and talked to some guys who were security there. They say the union workers are going to be setting up the rat because the building is using non union guys to build the building. Are they allowed to do that? Does it mean that the construction will be shoddy? Is this a normal squabble? The guys there said they will probably come to an agreement and it will all blow over. Anyone have any ideas about this?

I spoke to Halstead. Says no problems on the above issue. Completion date expected now at early summer of 2009...

I know StreetEasy has delayed Sales data, but according to postings as of today, seems like asking prices have increased across the board, especially the 2 bedrooms and PH's?

The foundation and at least 2 stories are up!

Can someone help explain this that I've received from the broker, if 421A:

"All I can give you is today and 10 years from now. The taxes increase 20% every two years.
Today - $87,00, 10yr - $703.87"

The calculations of $87 * 20% * 5 does not come close to the 10 yr figure.

The abated amount is 704-87 = 617, and that abatement decreases by 20% every 2 years. Assuming your real estate assessment doesn't change very much, your taxes will go up by about 20% of 617 ($123) every 2 years. I believe the residual 87 that you're getting taxed on is related to the cost of the land the developer is building on (ie you get a tax abatement on the difference between the cost of the apartment and the cost of the land it was built on).

With the increasing cost of energy,can they increase the common charges than what was already proposed?

Yes they can. If they raise them more than 25% you can back out of your contract.

Anyone know if they are making good progress so far? Wondering if they could be on time.

I walked by the other day and looks like they have framed 5 floors already. One side note, when the train went by, the vibration caused a bucket of something to fall off the second floor. Perhaps this is why a second floor apt hasn't sold yet.

I spoke to the sales office and they are still saying June of 09.

So you were standing there and witnessed the vibration and actually saw the bucket fall?

To my knowledge, there are only 4 one bedrooms left.

There is only a wood frame, so not so surprising that it fell.

Good point on the framing, I hope they'll insulate properly, etc, to account for the train.

And so I suspect total framing done by this summer. Will it really take another full year to complete the interior?

A year seems like a long time to complete the interior of a low rise building.

As a buyer, I can't have an apathetic attitude for a place that is going to be my home. So no, it is not ok that something fell off only a wood frame. A house is only as strong as its weakest point.

I dont believe it will take a full year to finish the project, if framing is well on it's way. Any thoughts?

The sales office is saying June of 09. The building frame going up is always fast. The inside (wiring, plumbing, elevators etc) are what take time. I spoke to some of the workers and they say there is very little shaking, however if you are outside on the street it is very loud when a train passes, but for some reason it isnt when standing in the building. It is not just wood framing that is up, it is now 6 floors of concrete. Also, dont forget they are building 2 low rise buildings, not one, and they are doing them simultaneously so it is really like a 14 floor building.

Do folks think there is already equity in these Preconstruction, based on $1100+ / sq ft currently, versus the close to $1000 originally paid?

Furthermore, what are best guesses for the price per sq ft after June 2009?

About $900-$1000

I bet they will be up over $1000.

Justy

How much you wanna bet?

Manhattan real estate prices going below preconstruction price is unheard of - even in the worst of times (such as now). Given the weak forecast of U$ (another phase of derating expected in 2H08) and increase in foreign capital inflow, analsyts do not expect prices to plummet for Manhattan.

Coupled with the fact that NO OTHER new condos in the midtown area is hovering $1050/sqft level. The higher priced ($1500/sqft and above) may have more difficulties.

Current listings at 505 are at $1000/sq. ft or less. One example

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/294763-condo-505-west-47th-street-clinton-manhattan

Foreign capital flow-you are still living in the past. All those foreign guys who bought in 2007 are losing money on their transactions and on top of that the rent income is also plummeting. I would say this will have just the opposite effect-more selling than buying by the foreigners to mitigate their losses and it will put pressure on prices in Manhattan. The ride is over.

Please show me your stats on "rent income plummeting" for Manhattan.
Those who bought in 2007 are not losing money in Manhattan.
Again, please back up with accurate housing data. Manhattan price, officially has not dropped yet.

Again, in $-based terms, which should depreciate further as we approach year-end, foreign investors will still be making money in the US.

For the latest transaction, pls be minded of Abu Dhabi's purchase of Chrysler building a week ago.

Big difference between Abu Dhabi and a regular overseas investor. A regular investor does not have US$ lying around to make his purchase so has to deal with a sinking dollar and downside risk. Just the opposite for Abu Dhabi that has Billions (that is a capital B) lying around looking for a place to park. No downside risk if the US$ goes south.

Just go to rentals on this site for buildings like the Orion and you will see the rental price erosion. Hint: It's all those little black arrows pointing down. More than 33% of the current listings (open and in contract) have those little black arrows pointing down. Similar, story for buildings almost everywhere.

The Euro, CDN$, Aus$, pound has appreciated 20%+ in last one year and at today prices there is no 20% gain over 2007 prices. And I have not even factored in the closing costs and fees associated with it , leave alone another hit of 6-8% when you have to bail out and all those currency conversion fees. You do the math and let me know.

Surdy: There are too many errors in your statements for me to correct in the time that I have. But I suggest you to study the real estate market and global economy more closely. To start, please check your currency appreciation figures. And Orion does not represent the whole Manhattan market. For those stats, please see official report books.

It is a lot to analyze but one needs to have correct details to derive a conclusion. Your analysis is very flawed, to say the least.

Best of luck!

Just from reading this message board, I would have second thoughts about living here. Some of the people who bought here come off sounding crazy. Or maybe it's what attracts the lower price per square foot.

lots of people in general sound crazy on this site, dont think it is specific to this building. very silly.

Actually of all the discussion boards for new developments, this is the most active. Many of the new developments don't even have a single comment.So maybe vinny isn't so silly.

Vinnyrock, you might have hit the nail right on the head!

Anybody buying here to live literally on the railway tracks needs to have their head examined anyway.

Kara actually the Jasper, Chelsea Stratus and LIC buildings seem to be talked of much more than the 505. I think everyone is being silly when they think that ALL the people who buy in a certain building are crazy. That is such narrow minded thinking and maybe the people in the building are lucky to not have you live there for that very reason. And by the way, most new buildings will always have a thread about them.

Buddyparker, sorry for my inaccurate information. Actually as of today,I see 505 has 200 postings,Jasper 42 postings, Chelsea Stratus 76 postings,Cipriani Club 5 postings, Loft14,Rushmore, Sheffield,all with ZERO postings. And no one cares about LIC buildings. (I guess 200<76??)