Lock up your daughters: the double-dip is here!!

oh shit---a W bottom???

But SteveF said...

As an aside, it's amazing that the Business section and the Real Estate section belong in the same paper; you'd think they're covering different realities.

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The last line in the article seems to summarize many of the discussions on SE: "Today might be a great time to buy, but tomorrow might be even better. It is a conviction the housing market cannot seem to shake."

i concede it is likely to be one funny-looking W

the right leg down could well go waaaay lower than the left

yikes

All is well on the Eastern Front.

That is, Long Island City.

"12 Depressing Facts About The Massive Housing Slump That Just Won't End"

* In the fourth quarter of 2010, Americans bought 63 times more iPads than they did homes
* December 2010 new home completions were the lowest since 1975
* 12 months from today, an estimated 20 million people will be underwater on their mortgages. That's 28 percent of all homes
* At the peak, you could get a home with a credit score of 550. Today you need 760 or higher
* 2010 foreclosure filings were up 23 percent from 2008
* There are 5 million delinquent loans not yet in foreclosure -- which are projected to drive foreclosures 20% higher than they were in 2010
* If home prices return to the 60-year trend line, they've got a long way to fall
* Despite recent deleveraging, Americans still carry historically ridiculous levels of debt
* 100 million Americans think buying a home today is a bad investment (Except SteveF, sorry couldn't resist...)
* 14 million more people are unemployed today than at the height of the housing boom (POTENTIAL HOMEBUYERS LOST)
* The end of the first-time homebuyer tax credit resulted in a 30 percent decline in applications -- despite record low mortgage rates
* Including shadow inventory, it might take 44 months to get through the glut of homes on the market

Scary charts here: http://www.businessinsider.com/depressing-facts-housing-slump-2011-1#

Now Wbottom as given us information that only his tailor knew before.

"a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all"

I'm not seeing evidence of a continued dip here in NYC. In fact, I'm seeing the opposite, at least in my area of interest. At least two properties that I know of went into contract quickly after hitting the market and traded above ask. That just was not happening in the slump following Lehman.

for nyc, we will know clearly in a mere 3 months--if it aint up and outta here by then it gon slip deeeeeeper

"At least two properties that I know of went into contract quickly after hitting the market and traded above ask. "

Anecdoates on two properties, I'm sold.

The median close went down another 7.6% last quarter.
Every single quarter we've dropped, we've had similar anecdotes from broker.

The stats just don't bear it out.

High fives all around.

Props to swe. A bargain about to be cheaper........

Flmaozzzzzzzzz. Yeah, w67. Advice you can bank on. Or at least stuff under your mattress.

somewhereelse: IIRC, bramstar happens to be looking in one of the few market segments where sellers still hold a tenuous edge. My guess is that their advantage won't last much longer, but bramstar is accurately reporting the current state of play in our little corner of the world.

"Flmaozzzzzzzzz. Yeah, w67. Advice you can bank on. Or at least stuff under your mattress."

Self-shilling? Where should I put my cash, bubba?

I think we are in a phase 30 years described as differentiation; in a slow, declining market, rare and prime properties are stable while problem properties in not quite perfect nabes drop like a rock.

"somewhereelse: IIRC, bramstar happens to be looking in one of the few market segments where sellers still hold a tenuous edge. "

Fair enough... but thats exactly why you can't pick a subsegment and extrapolate the entire market (the OP is not only not just one neighborhood in Manhattan, its national). 15 CPW also did great as the city cratered. But we're talking about city and national trends.

Assuming he's correct on his segment, it also infers that the rest of Manhattan has declined even more than the stats show. Considering I have no interest in living on the UWS, good news for me when/if I buy.

matsonjones,
Great thread name!

maly,
so your saying that the pick of the litter will fair better than the fuglies.
Lack of interest in the litter, in general, should also decrease the interest in the beauties.
The beauties will have to be re-priced.
I totally with you on the slow steady erosion except I do believe in tipping points. I thought we would have reached that time. Some say the time has pasted.
Patience is a virtue.

falcogold1: :-))

Much has been said about the economic driving forces - unemployment, interest rates, liquidity, etc.
How will the real estate market respond to major news stories - i.e. widespread turmoil in the Arab world, uncertainty about oil prices, etc.? Cannot be good...or can it be spun - Manhattan is a flight to "safety".

Falco, I was just paraphrasing (from memory) something 30-years posted a while back. I think you are right about the decline for all types of properties; his point was that there is less volatility for prime properties, their prices don't rise as much as subpar places in boom times, and don't decline as much in busts.
Time sure is pasty, I agree.

sjtmd, I'm sure the brokers have already figured out their spin on it.

"Egypt-proof condos"

I'm sure the brokers have already figured out their spin on it.

Buy now before all those frightened Rich Arabs buy up all the RE in Manhattan.