Manhattan Real Estate Sell Off

And spunky - just to clarify - street bonuses are going to be DOWN, DOWN, DOWN this year - even if they actually go up - they're still DOWN.

what is the "sell off"

I thinks that's when anyone who is anyone sells their apt at attractive discounts. I am trying to find out where and when the sell off went. According to the majority on this board it was suppose to happen in July of 07. Then they revised it to August then again to September then again to October then to November.

A quote from the Real estate group---Oh Masterq and MMAfia say it ain't so please say it ain't so

"The fact that this year’s Wall Street Bonus season does not seem to have been negatively effected by the crisis in the credit markets as many had believed, coupled with the fact that the dollar continues to show weakness against foreign currencies, leads us to believe that the Manhattan sales market should remain strong through the winter of 08, and thus not create a “run” on rental housing that would force rental prices higher."

bonuses get paid at the end of the year. for those of us who actually work in the industry we know they are slightly up, flat or if you work for one of those that were exposed to write downs then your bonus will be written down. if real estate group know more than me then they are welcome to come in and do my employee reviews. "please bring your money printing machine with". rather than say that bonuses are not going to be down, because we know they are not dude, you might want to draw the card which says even if bonuses are down then real estate prices wont be affected in nyc. this will make you and them appear more credible.

second this whole dollar appearing cheap shit. dude it has been getting cheaper and cheaper, so good luck to those who thought it was cheap two years ago. comments like these by real estate groups are more concerning than reaffirming about the state of the market.

ahhh.., always refreshing to return to this board where the blind lather each other up. =p it's the entertainment board for sure.

here we are, staring right down the barrel of a systemic financial crisis (say what? who? where?) and the sheep still munching grass like all is well. just a little hiccup. *burp*

i've begun collecting select phrases to repost later on... i remember the Arizona real estate blog... that was probably the best one (although this one could rival it later on... keep the posts coming!)... one of their poster phrases was "... but the year-round golf will keep buyers coming...". my, they were an adamant bunch... much more than here believe it or not.

hi spunkster? remember my advice to BUY on the DIPS for gold? accumulate your shares? well, i've been following my own advice (believe it or not) and have increased my shares of gold... now i'm having another coooold brewskie after seeing the nice upward movement on friday. =D ready for the next leg upwards? yeeeessss....

Oh MMAfia MMAfia nothing is more entertaining than reading about your trades. We should go to the race track together this way after the race is over you can predict which horse won or on Tuesday you can predict who won Monday's night football game--You a funny man MMAfia a funny man--now how bout getting that rent check in and then you can have that cold breskie.

MMAfia. You have been striking out in your RE analysis in NYC for a long time. You may have hit a single on your temporary gold analysis. But, you have been thrown out at 2nd for Real estate prognostication. For as long as I can remember, you have crawling back to the dugout and striking out when it comes to predicting the rainout of the Manhattan RE market. You keep ignoring the runs being scored against you over the years on double digit rates of return in the NYC RE market. The driving force of the NYC RE market is foreign investment, the foreigners are not buying for spec, they are buying for 2nd and 3rd homes because the market is cheap here compared to the overseas major cities. I was just in London an average brewskie there is equivalent to 6.25 US dollars and $8 a gallon for gas. The London flats are very expensive compared to NYC. Many financial advisors in London stated to me that NYC RE is cheap compared to the London flats. There have been tremendous increases in net worth in individual wealth all over the world. Our $ sucks, China, India and the rest of the world is kicking our ass. Also, Wall street bonuses will be up 2007 per WSJ..Remember, your Gold was $800 per ounce in 1980. In today's dollars that is a negative rate of return. You have struck out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth and you are still behind 10 runs in the NYC RE market.If you keep waiting to buy to Manhattan RE I'm afraid there will be no comeback in the ninth inning. You better make a fortune on your gold, because you have been hittting an oohfah in the NYC RE market.

MMAfia struck out in his real trade gold positions l but his paper trades are doing fabulously. His paper trades are doing so well that soon he will be rent a nicer place.

Ahhh... another n00b poster to this particular discussion (copy & paste double post to boot), and of course, brings up the good ol foreign investment card. let's see... it's gonna be a toss up between the 'foreign investment' or the 'but wall st. bonuses are at records this year' card... which one will win as the poster statement for this board?

why would foreigners want to buy something (real estate) in a country (US) that is pretty much collapsing? so they can get it cheap, only watch it get cheaper and lose value? oh! WAIT!! because it's nyc and in nyc, prices don't decline! why? oh yeah, it's because us foreigners will stupidly buy and sell these apartments to each other, ratcheting up the prices for each other! yAy!

sorry. foreigners are not that stupid. well, maybe some might be, you know, the ones who take blind advice from financial advisors w/o doing due diligence... they do exist (helloooo subprime borrowers).

And please, don't even try play the whole Gold was $800 in 1980 game with me. In 1980, I was still in elementary school and definitely didn't own any. But, let's play a more realistic scenario: 2000-2007 (which is roughly the time I started accumulating some wealth to either put into a downpayment for a house or in personal investments):

Gold: 165% gain
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kilbach/images/nov232007_5.jpg

Dow: 25% gain
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kilbach/images/nov232007_6.jpg

and that's not even factoring inflation into the picture which wipes out the Dow's gain but INCREASES Gold's gain.

Hmm.... since we've put that to bed, how about this? Stock market vs. NY Home prices vs. US Home prices?
http://images.forbes.com/images/2005/05/26/0527home_1.jpg

Any questions?

And since you did bring up Gold at $800 in 1980, do you know what that is in terms of todays worthless $$$? Do you understand that that $800 is worth more than $2500 today? Do you see why we still have a LOOOONG way to go?

One thing I MUST STATE: never EVER defy the Power of Santa Claus coming to town on Wall St. This goes back many, many decades, and is always 'money'. The stock market will rally, amidst the turmoil till December. It always is the case, and unless an ALL OUT disaster occurs (the likes of 9/11), Santa Claus will be coming to town this year as well. Shorters, be wary!!! you WILL get burned if you are not patient and wait till after Santa Claus leaves come January.

Bottom line: thank God I didn't buy that apartment last year and instead invested my money into Gold. I made a lot more than that silly, overpriced 1-Bed would have appreciated.

Finally, since I did live in Beantown for over 12 years and consider it my second home, your analogy is quite fitting. We came back down 0-4 to pull the biggest upset in history. Now spunky, pass me the brewskie so I can double-post this response in the other thread.

For Spunksterz: it's really quite simple.

LONG gold, accumulate on the dips.

If you don't know how to execute that, let me tell you how:

1. Buy Gold (bullion, ETFs, mining co stocks)
2. Hold
3. When MACD crosses EMA in a downward trend, sell some to cash out
4. When MACD crosses EMA in an upward trend, accumulate more Gold with the cashed out money.
5. Goto step 2.

Forget about all your arguments about this and that all based on pointless yak- just put the above factual steps to the test and then speak to me at the end of January when Santa has left town.

What's the alternative? Give up my cheap rent right now and dump all that money into that overpriced $1.5 million 1-bed in the city instead? Oh heeeelll no. I might be young but I ain't dumb.

MMAfia you finally figured out the holy grail to gold bullion investing. This formula works so much better than sticking my ATM card in a machine and just like that cash comes out. Let's just keep the witchcraft technical charting to ourselves otherwise everyone will be using the same strategy and it will screw us up.

Well, like I said, talk to me in January. btw, how's that terrace on your west village apt doing today? if not too chilly, have a brewskie out there for me today.

My bad, I meant 0-3 not 0-4. Doh@!

Hey MMaf double post this up your a--hole
Keep drinking your brewskies, because when you finally wake up from your hangover you will realize that you still won't be able to afford to purchase Real Estate. While I still own 4 properties, you will be in your rat infested tenement. Also, when the roof collapses in your sh-tty apt rest assured you move to Boston. Maybe you could rent a trailer next to Michael Dukakis house when the US economy collapses. Your predictions suck, you will never own a place in Manhattan. Your economic analysis is baseless and without merit. I have been noticing that you have been wrong in every prediction about the economy over the last couple of years. The world and the US economy is so strong millionaires increase at a 9% clip in the US and the World. See the CapGemini Merrill Lynch world report. Hopefully, your landlord does not shut your electric off because of your unpaid bills. RE is an essential part of anyone's portfolio. Oh, I forgot you don't have a portfolio. Remember, you can always move back to Boston when the NYC economy collapses. LOL Why do you bother to write in Streeteasy , since you will never be able to afford to own a residence in NYC. Your rental payments are greatly appreciated by your Landlord, because it increases his or her net worth at your expense.

MMAfia, it looks like you don't own a property.
With investing, you are subject to capital gain taxes yearly. For those who are renting, they never factor in the mortgage interest deductions when purchasing. You can also avoid capital gain taxes upto 250k. With these factors in place, your wealth is only worth 1/2 of what you could've made with RE.

MMAfia just a few days ago you said this

"spunky, sorry for you but I already discussed how i cashed out on gold way earlier"

Woah! what anger, resentment... cussing? Folks, can you read or what?

1. Buy Gold (bullion, ETFs, mining co stocks) <- actually strike bullion out as it's less liquid
2. Hold
3. When MACD crosses EMA in a downward trend, sell some to cash out
4. When MACD crosses EMA in an upward trend, accumulate more Gold with the cashed out money.
5. Goto step 2.

Read step #4: what do you do with the cashed out $$$? that's right, accumulate more with the cashed out money. Do you guys even look at a basic chart? did you see the MACD cross the EMA on Friday on a 10 day chart? Hello? anyone home? sorry i didn't announce each and every trade i make in my life on this nice little fun forum. *sheesh*

As far as the Short Positions go, I totally agree with Jim Rogers, just not in the immediate term because SANTA is coming to wall street. So, I did drop those positions until Xmas is over. They are indeed too risky. If the market starts TOTALLY tanking, then I'll revisit the Shorts, but staying away for now.

SoflNYC, ooooh.... ahhhhh.. you own what? 4 properties? u da man! seriously, applause please. you're my hero. almost as bad, but not quite as bad as the other retard who insisted I needed to have $5 mill liquid to post here about financial information.

ba294, you do bring up good points- you are correct on both counts, except the last. yes, i don't own property. and yes, there is capital gain taxes (and for RE, yes you can avoid up to 250K thank you Bush for helping to create flipper nation), but if you compare the gains % wise between Gold/S&P/RE, you can clearly see the appreciation differential more than offsets this. but thanks for the informative discussion point- it is a rarity here.

Woah! what anger, resentment... Folks, can you read or what?

1. Buy Gold (bullion, ETFs, mining co stocks)
2. Hold
3. When MACD crosses EMA in a downward trend, sell some to cash out
4. When MACD crosses EMA in an upward trend, accumulate more Gold with the cashed out money.
5. Goto step 2.

Read step #4: what do you do with the cashed out $$$? that's right, accumulate more with the cashed out money. Do you guys even look at a basic chart? did you see the MACD cross the EMA on Friday on a 10 day chart? Hello? anyone home?

As far as the Short Positions go, I totally agree with Jim Rogers, just not in the immediate term because SANTA is coming to wall street. So, I did drop those positions until Xmas is over. They are indeed too risky. If the market starts TOTALLY tanking, then I'll revisit the Shorts, but staying away for now.

SoflNYC, ooooh.... ahhhhh.. you own what? 4 properties? u da man! seriously, applause please. you're my hero. almost as bad, but not quite as bad as the other retard who insisted you needed to have $5 mill liquid to post here about financial information.

ba294, you do bring up good points- you are correct on both counts, except the last. yes, i don't own property. and yes, there is capital gain taxes (and for RE, yes you can avoid up to 250K thank you Bush for helping to create flipper nation), but if you compare the gains % wise between Gold/S&P/RE, you can clearly see the appreciation more than offsets this. but thanks for the informative discussion point- it is a rarity here.